SOUTH REGION - ATLANTA, GA.
I originally felt that this quarter of the whole bracket was the toughest of the four this year, and my opinion has not changed. Kentucky is obviously the clear-cut team to beat in the field, having steamrolled their way through the SEC to the top overall seed. John Calipari's band of one-and-doners is young (again) and supremely talented (again). But you already knew that. What you may not know is that this team is probably Coach Cal's best defensive team at Kentucky during his tenure. Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marquis Teague, Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Darius Miller are excellent athletes and are more than capable of putting pressure on the opposing team's offense. They play with an almost Orlando Magic-esque style of defense. They can afford to take some risks because Davis will clean up their messes with his record setting shot-blocking ability. To me, this makes Kentucky the easy choice for the National Championship.
The rest of the bracket is stout, but not in Kentucky's class. Some thoughts:
1. Duke, while not up to levels of Mike Krzyzewski's past teams, is still a well-coached team and the top threat to Kentucky in the South Bracket, even though I picked them to lose to Baylor. Duke has three things going for them that should give Kentucky cause for concern. For starters, they have the best coach in the field leading them, a man who will be more than capable of devising a great game plan for the Cats. Secondly, they have the single quickest guard in college basketball, Austin Rivers. Kentucky has not seen a guard with this degree of quickness all season. While I don't think Rivers will turn into Dwyane Wade circa 2003, I won't be totally surprised if he drops 40 on someone. Finally, the Blue Devils are probably the most similar team to Vanderbilt in the whole tourney. For those of you who are just starting to watch college hoops for the first time this season, Vandy is the only team that gave Kentucky major trouble this whole year. Kentucky escaped twice before finally acquiescing to the Commodores in the SEC Tournament Championship game.
2. The 5-12 matchup between Wichita State and VCU is a case of two hugely underseeded teams forced to do battle. Both teams are more than capable of taking out a high major team, but we'll have to settle for one, I picked Wichita based primarily on their experience and roster balance. They have good guards and a solid big man. VCU just strikes me as too trendy this year for me to completely buy the hype this time around.
Hardest Game to Pick: 4 Indiana v. 13. New Mexico State
The Hoosiers, like a lot of young teams, are Jekyll-and-Hyde away from home. Portland is not Bloomington- I'm nervous.
Best Player in the Region: Anthony Davis, C, Kentucky
The likely #1 pick this summer's NBA draft. That's all you need to know. Broke Shaq's SEC record for blocks in a season by a freshman. Compares well to another Calipari big man, Marcus Camby.
Dark Horse: Wichita State
I really wanted to say Duke considering that no one has picked them or discussed them, but I'm more of a believer in the Shockers this year. Call it a hunch.
Most Interesting Matchup: Gotta go with Duke-UK, right? Let's count the ways: 1. They're two of the best programs ever, 2. The game is in Atlanta, which means it will be stuffed to the rafters with Duke and Kentucky fans, 3. It is a rematch of the single greatest college basketball game ever. You might've seen the highlight before.
WEST REGION- PHOENIX, AZ
The selection committee balanced out the bracket nicely by putting its worst bracket right below its strongest. This is not to say that it is entirely devoid of good teams. I love Missouri in this region, and my justification is really simple. It boils down to two highly important factors- offensive efficiency and neutral court records. Mizzou is undefeated on neutral courts this year (7-0). They're also #1 in offensive efficiency, a metric which has predicted the national champ with startling accuracy six out of the last seven years. That's enough evidence for me to pick the Tigers.
1. Long Beach State is my pick for "12 seed of the year." We have one of these teams that comes from nowhere and rolls through the first weekend into the round of 16. The 49ers can rebound, shoot, and play a pesky brand of defense. Other than the eye test, I have no real scientific proof they're actually better than New Mexico or Louisville. But that's what makes brackets fun.
2. Michigan State is overseeded. They have a good resume and a solid team, like you would expect from a team that won the Big 10. Don't expect them to steamroll LIU-Brooklyn though. Long Island hung with North Carolina for a while last year, and like you would expect from Brooklyn, are extremely tough. Sparty has its work cut out for it. They'll win, but it won't be a blow-out.
3. Saint Louis is one of the most annoying teams in the field. They defend hard all game long, and if that isn't enough, they also run offense for about 30 seconds each possession. Rick Majerus's club is not to be underestimated.
Hardest Game to Pick: 8 Memphis v. 9 St. Louis
See above. Memphis has blistered a lot of the competition in C-USA, but the Bilikens are a totally different breed of cat for them.
Best Player: Scott Machado, Iona
The only reason Iona made the field. Machado is probably the best PG in the tourney. A possible NBA sleeper pick.
Dark Horse: Marquette
They'll have to escape Mizzou (more on that later), but they have the talent and coaching to win the region.
Most Interesting Matchup: Missouri v. Marquette
Marquette wants to run. Missouri does it better. This matchup has all the makings of a barnburner. Here's hoping.
EAST REGION- BOSTON, MA
The most balanced and wide-open of the four regions, the East bracket features almost every kind of team- teams in turmoil (Syracuse), with tons of momentum (Florida State), on fire (Vanderbilt), and schizophrenic (Ohio State). With the news that Syracuse's center Fab Melo won't be available and a potential date with Festus Ezeli and Vandy on the docket, the Orange's 2-3 zone is basically a huge pile of gasoline-soaked wood, ready to be exposed to the red-hot torch that is Vandy. I'll take Vandy in the upset. In the lower half, it's Ohio State versus Florida State. Sounds like a great football matchup...except it's not. It's a better basketball matchup now than it would be in football. Which is weird.
1. Gonzaga got screwed by the NCAA again. Perpetually forced to travel light years from Spokane, the Selection Committee did the Zags no favors by setting them up with West Virginia in Pittsburgh.
2. I already sang Vandy's praises, but that alone cannot absolve them of their recent NCAA Tournament failures. How they play versus Harvard could go a long way towards making my bracket look a lot better after the first weekend.
Hardest Game to Pick: 6 Cincinnati v. 11 Texas
A battle between two really-not-that-great teams. This game figures to be a total snoozer. Which is basically why I have almost nothing to say on the subject.
Best Player: Jared Sullinger
Think Paul Millsap, but not as athletic.
Dark Horse: Vanderbilt. Obviously. Wait. Does the fact that it's obvious make them a non-dark horse? Crap. I guess it'll have to be.....ummm...Wisconsin?
Most Interesting Matchup: Vanderbilt v. Syracuse
A deep, talented zone defending team with no player of impact on low block versus a 3-point sniping team with a strong low-post player. Styles make fights, and the yin and yang elements of this game make it one I really want to see.
MIDWEST REGION- ST. LOUIS, MO
North Carolina. Kansas. Georgetown. NC State. Temple. Michigan. This bracket could be renamed the "Historians' Bracket" because it's loaded with teams that have long histories of high-quality hoops. Though the first three teams I mentioned are the top seeds here, it's a two-team race. It's Ol' Roy's boys versus his exes. North Carolina is easily the second-most talented team in the whole tourney, but also the worst defensive team among the top 8 teams (by seed) in the whole tourney. That's worrisome considering they might have to face Doug McDermott, one of the nation's most lethal scorers, and Thomas Robinson, the best non-Anthony Davis big man in the country before they make it to New Orleans. Did I mention that if they do meet Kansas in the Elite 8 that the game is in St. Louis, only hours from Lawrence? That's why I'm taking the Jayhawks. They defend well, have matchups for most of UNC's players, and a better backcourt.
1. Georgetown had better be on upset alert. Belmont is battle-tested, familiar with the tournament, talented, and deep. I think Georgetown's style keeps teams in it and if this holds true, the Hoyas could get bounced early again.
2. The same could be said about the Michigan-Ohio game. Michigan's odd style of offense could play right into Ohio's hands. Remember, Ohio boatraced Georgetown a few years ago in the tourney. Underestimate the MAC champs at your peril.
Hardest Game to Pick: 8 Creighton v. 9 Alabama
A total contrast of styles here. Bama basketball is just like its football team- all defense, competent offense (if that). Creighton's offense is potent and they have the best player on the floor. I'm totally 50-50 on it, but give me the Tide here.
Best Player: Thomas Robinson
What, you expected differently?
Dark Horse: Sounds weird, but it's probably Belmont. Why they got a 14 escapes me. Probably the worst case of underseeding in the field this year.
Most Interesting Matchup: UNC v. Kansas
Who doesn't want to watch Roy Williams squirm against his old team?
That's all I got for you guys. Give me Kentucky v. Mizzou, and Florida State v. Kansas in the Final Four. Kentucky beats Kansas for the title. John Calipari is finally recognized as an elite coach. The whole team goes pro and Calipari is left to recruit the next wave of blue chippers for Big Blue.
Enjoy March Madness!
