Way Too Early NBA Mock Draft Version 1.0

As the NBA season heads into April, most NBA talking heads start to yap incessantly about playoff seedings and who will win what division and what first round matchup looks best on paper and who will win the MVP and who will be the dark horse, etc. For me, most of this stuff isn't that interesting. I don't care who wins the divisions and makes the playoffs- just get me there. There will be great matchups regardless of whoever gets seeded where. Yeah, we'd all love to see Knicks-Bulls after last weekend's MeloDrama. I'm sure more than a few want to see Boston against Miami or Chicago. And I'm sure lots of people want to see if Memphis can replicate last year's run. They're also curious about the always-entertaining LeBron v. Durant MVP discussion. Yes, even Skip Bayless, despite his constant "LeBron is disqualified because he plays with Dwyane Wade" fallacious argument. I guess my main point is that there's a ton to talk about in the NBA right now, which of course means some stuff will get pushed to the back burner. That's only natural. But for some folks, the season is now basically over or has been since January. This, coupled with the new rule requiring collegiate players to decide on their NBA futures by the end of April, in turn leads some fans to look ahead. For them, this means mocking the NBA draft incessantly. Without further ado, let's give the people what they want, Jalen Rose style.

For the record, I am using the current records of all teams (as of April 13, when this post was first written) and assuming that the Finals and lottery will fall according to the current standings. In a nutshell, the lottery will be ordered as it would be according the the current probabilities and we're assuming the teams with the best records each win their conferences and meet in the Finals. (Currently Oklahoma City versus Chicago) The list of players I am using can be found here.

1. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Davis, C, Kentucky

This pick, like usual, is a complete slam dunk. Anyone who picks here is going to draft Davis, even if they don't have a need for him. A Bismack Biyombo-Anthony Davis frontcourt looks very interesting on paper. I'm particularly interested in what career path Davis' will take. Will he develop into a Tim Duncan-type player with a mid-range game to go with an inside game, plus his rebounding and shot-blocking, or will he be another Marcus Camby who rebounds, blocks shots, and hits the occasional 18-footer? 

2. Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky

On a team chock full of knuckleheads like John Wall, Andre Blatche, and Jordan Crawford, getting an all-basketball, no-nonsense grinder like Kidd-Gilchrist makes a ton of sense for the Wizards. Adding Nene was a good start towards getting the Wizards back on track to returning to contention, but there's still plenty of work to be done. Luckily for Washington, that's MKG's calling card. He might not turn into Dwyane Wade, but having a top pick who busts his tail and sets an example for the boneheads on your team to follow is something every team loves having. 

3. New Orleans Hornets: Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas

Considering that New Orleans is currently giving minutes at the 4 to Gustavo Ayon, Lance Thomas, Carl Landry, and Jason Smith, this pick is a total no-brainer. 

4. Sacramento Kings: Andre Drummond, C, UConn

With DeMarcus Cousins developing, the perimeter stuffed with wings and a lack of top-shelf point guards available in this draft, going best player available is the best route the Kings can take. Drummond is a high-ceiling big with uncommon athleticism, a high basketball IQ and the requisite size to bang away with the centers in the NBA. He'll need time to develop like most young big men.

5. Toronto Raptors: Harrison Barnes, SG, UNC

Though he played small forward in Chapel Hill, Barnes is a near-lock to play shooting guard in the NBA. Possessing great size for the position (6-8) and a silky smooth mid-range jumper, it would appear that Barnes fits the mold of a prototypical NBA 2. With DeMar DeRozan's development coming along slowly and the Raptors looking at a roster absolutely devoid of perimeter scoring (other guards: Jose Calderon, Jerryd Bayless, and Justin Dentmon.), Barnes makes a huge amount of sense. They could take Bradley Beal instead. Either way, there's no way the Raptors won't leave the draft without a shooting guard.

6. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

Now that the Cavs have their point guard of the future in Kyrie Irving, it's time for them to get him some help on the perimeter. That's where Beal comes in. Though his size isn't ideal, his scoring ability, length, and ball-handling skills will be much appreciate by a team that is severely lacking in that area after Kyrie Irving. 

7. Portland Trail Blazers: Perry Jones III, PF, Baylor

The Blazers are facing a rebuilding project after nuking their roster at the trading deadline, but they got off to a good start in securing this pick from New Jersey in their trade of Gerald Wallace (it is a top 3 protected pick). With almost every player the Blazers would like to have gone by pick #7 and a hole at the weakest position in the 2012 draft (point guard), the Blazers follow the Kings' lead and the best player available, the enigmatic Jones. Considering they have two lottery picks, they can afford to take a chance on potential.

8. Detroit Pistons: Terrence Jones, PF, Kentucky

A couple years of drafting in the lottery haven't saved the Pistons from crafting a roster with more holes than a June bride. After drafting Brandon Knight and Greg Monroe in recent years, you have to think the Pistons will be looking to draft anywhere except at the point. With most of the picks from 8-20 being roughly the same in terms of talent, the Pistons go with the 3rd Kentucky player taken so far. Jones is an athletic hybrid power forward in the Josh Smith mold who will make the Ben Wallace/Jason Maxiell abomination at power forward look even worse in retrospect than it is does currently. I can already hear Pistons fans in 2022 saying, "We gave minutes to Ben Wallace and Jason Maxiell in 2012?!" 

9. Utah Jazz: Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State

Using what was formerly Golden State's pick acquired in last season's Deron Williams trade, the Jazz look to continue their roster renovation. With the frontcourt basically settled (Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap starting with Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter off the bench), they look to rebuild the perimeter. It's become clear that Devin Harris isn't the answer for the Jazz. Lillard shot up the draft board after a season in which he was one of college basketball's most lethal scorers, albeit against a lesser level of competition than most NBA prospects.

10. New Orleans Hornets: Tyler Zeller, C, UNC

Having already filled their need at power forward with their first lottery pick, the Hornets use their 2nd lottery pick to shore up the rest of their front line. With Chris Kaman about to depart as a free agent and Emeka Okafor the only center of any repute left on the roster, the Hornets would be well-served to address the position before it's too late. 

11. Portland Trail Blazers: Kendall Marshall, PG, UNC

As stated earlier, the Blazers have a gaping hole on their roster at point guard, which is ironic since the disgustingly out-of-shape Raymond Felton held the position for the majority of Portland's 2011-12 season (when he wasn't filling his "gaping hole" with fast food). Anyway, having already used their pick on an "upside" or "potential" kind of player, the Blazers play it safe with their 2nd lottery pick and take the draft's best and only true point guard prospect. While Marshall doesn't wow anyone (NBA scouts included) with his defense, athleticism, or scoring ability, his passing skill, court vision, and anticipation while running the Tar Heels' offense was unparalleled in college basketball last season. At 6-4, 195, Marshall has the kind of size NBA teams love in a point guard. If the Blazers don't like their pickings at point guard and choose to go the free agent route to shore up the position in the offseason, this pick could easily be Jeremy Lamb or even Austin Rivers.

12. Milwaukee Bucks: Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois

In trading Andrew Bogut to the Warriors for Monta Ellis, the Bucks left themselves in the unenviable position of having to give Kwame Brown, Larry Sanders, and Ekpe Udoh bigger minutes at center than most teams would like. Sheesh. While Leonard is no Davis or Drummond, his size alone will make him attractive, especially after a season in which he showed marked improvement over his freshman year in Champaign. The pick is a reach, but that's what the Bucks are facing. 

13. Phoenix Suns: Jeremy Lamb, SG, UConn

The Suns would dearly love to draft a point guard with this pick, but they can't afford to at 13, as any of the remaining prospects at the position would be considered major reaches. They could also draft a big like Jared Sullinger, John Henson, or Arnett Moultrie here.

14. Utah Jazz: Austin Rivers, SG, Duke

Utah's quest to rejuvenate their backcourt in the 2012 Draft continues, as they add the explosive Rivers to Damian Lillard and bolster their backcourt depth. While Rivers is not the biggest or strongest shooting guard in this draft, his first step is one of the fastest in recent memory and his developing offensive game showed signs of being pro-ready in his only year at Duke. Terrence Ross is an option here, should the Jazz so choose.

15. Houston Rockets: Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State

In what will likely serve as a warning to future would-be one-and-done freshmen, the Rockets finally draft the hefty Sullinger at the 15th pick, roughly 10 picks below where he was projected to be taken approximately one year ago.

16. Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Ross, SG, Washington 

With the future on the wing in Philadelphia still relatively uncertain- Evan Turner has shown flashes, but inconsistently. It's unclear how committed the 76ers' front office is in regards to making Turner their "future," and Ross just happens to be the best available player. His NBA-ready game and excellent size reminded many in Seattle of former Husky Brandon Roy.

17. Denver Nuggets: Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State

The Nuggets are in the enviable position of having viable players at every position on the court, which frees them up to take the best player available. Moultrie is a bit of a tweener for the PF-C position at the next level, so he'll likely play both for Denver. With Nene having been shipped to Washington, the Nuggets will need some help scoring down low. Their other bigs certainly don't offer much in the way of low-post scoring after put-backs and dunks.

18. Dallas Mavericks: John Henson, PF, North Carolina

The Tar Heels add another player to the draft pool, the third member of their frontcourt to make the first round of the draft. With what figures to be an interesting offseason ahead for the Mavericks, they will likely be looking for cheap options to beef up their front line. Adding Henson would be an interesting choice- while not as skilled as current Mav Brandan Wright nor as large as other current Mav Brendan Haywood (both former Tar Heels), Henson's skills lie firmly in the middle of both of their combined skill sets. Take Wright's size and finesse, pair it with Haywood's defensive capabilities, mix the two, and voilà! You'd get John Henson.

19. New Jersey Nets: Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's

Having whiffed on their attempts to both resign Deron Williams and trade for Dwight Howard, and also having given away their lottery pick to the Blazers in exchange for Gerald Wallace, the Nets are stuck between a rock and hard place in their first year in Brooklyn. Mikhail Prokhorov can't be pleased with the idea of opening his new Brooklyn arena without an All-Star. No pressure, Moe.

20. Boston Celtics: Fab Melo, C, Syracuse

Though this a reach for the other Melo, Boston has a huge need at center for next year, with Kevin Garnett and Jermaine O'Neal about to become free agents. With the majority of the top prospects available here mostly wings, the Celtics could make inroads at continuing their youth movement at shooting guard or small forward, where neither Ray Allen or Paul Pierce are no spring chickens.

21. Orlando Magic: Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse

Whoever will be coaching the Magic at this point won't appreciate knowing that the team will soon be without Dwight Howard. They'll be even less thrilled when they realize that their first step to preparing for life without Dwight is a top-25 pick. Waiters looks the guy most likely to be the Ryan Tannehill of the 2012 NBA draft.

22. Memphis Grizzlies: Royce White, SF, Iowa State

Memphis might enjoy status as one of the league's grittiest, toughest teams, but they are not exactly stuffed with talent. Needing depth at every position but not hurting at any position, the Grizzlies can afford to make a speculative pick on the all-around combination of size and skilled freakish athleticism for a SF that White provides. To me, he's the most interesting player, physically and skills-wise in the whole draft. (Just make sure that all teammates are aware that they should keep their valuables in safes while on road trips.)

23. Atlanta Hawks: Tony Wroten, PG, Washington

Though he's classified as a point guard by most draftniks, Wroten looks like a prototypical NBA combo guard. Blessed with great size and decent dribbling, he'll likely get minutes at both spot early on in his career. He would have been better served staying in school for another year, in my opinion. His piss-poor shooting could certainly use the work. No one doubts his athleticism- he has that in droves. Might follow Dion Waiters right into the Top 15 picks by the time the draft rolls around.

24. Boston Celtics: Jeffrey Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt

Having already addressed their need for size, the Celtics can then look ahead to deepening their perimeter with Taylor. Taylor does no one thing particularly well, but many things solidly. You need those guys in the NBA.

25. Indiana Pacers: Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky

Indiana had a fantastic season and enjoyed solid seasons across the board at nearly every position. To that end, they're very similar to Memphis. And just like the Grizzlies, depth is not an area of strength for Indiana. They're solid in the frontcourt with Roy Hibbert, David West, Danny Granger, Lou Amundson, and Tyler Hansbrough collecting most of the minutes down low. Their perimeter game is decent too, with Paul George and Darren Collison there. The Pacers don't need instant starters- they're at the point as an organization where they need good players to bring off the bench. Teague could step in and much like his predecessor at Kentucky, Brandon Knight, give you minutes right away. (It would be too easy to compare him to his brother Jeff.)

26. Cleveland Cavaliers: John Jenkins, SG, Vanderbilt

Having already added one tool for Kyrie Irving to use, the Cavs do the math, realize two is better than one, and add another shooter for their future star to team up with. No one will confuse Jenkins with Beal, but his role will never be one of starter in the NBA.

27. Miami Heat: Festus Ezeli, C, Vanderbilt

The Commodores add yet another player to the latter stages of the first round, and the Heat couldn't be happier. Pat Riley couldn't be happier. Though Ezeli is kind of a project, he is a banger and will fight with the other team's center. He could use some extra weight, but most guys drafted here aren't drafted on NBA-readiness. The Heat will have to deal with it.

28. Golden State Warriors: Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky

There aren't any big men of repute worth taking here, so the Warriors will have to put up with the nice value in Doron Lamb. He's small for a NBA shooting guard, but his efficiency was crucial for Kentucky last year and the Warriors have done a lot nice things offensively by acquiring players who are efficient shooters, like Lamb. Backup point guard is an option here,

29. Oklahoma City Thunder: Darius Miller, SG, Kentucky

No NBA team has been more scrupulous when acquiring players than Oklahoma City. Given the amount of emphasis they have placed on team chemistry and togetherness, the addition of Darius Miller would seem to fall in line. Miller had no issues relinquishing a bigger role to Kentucky's own Fab Five last year and has a solid, well-rounded game to boot. He'd contribute from OKC's bench behind the likes of Thabo Sefolosha and James Harden.

30. Chicago Bulls: Kevin Jones, PF, West Virginia

For a team that already has everything, why not add player who does the same? Jones doesn't have prototypical power forward size, but he does have a nice jumper and is quicker than you'd expect. There are guards here that the Bulls could be interested in, like Kris Joseph or William Buford. 

MLB 2012 Season Predictions

With March Madness done, college football in total hibernation, and the NBA in the dog days stretch of its season, that can only mean one thing- baseball is just around the corner. Here are my complete predictions for the divisions, playoffs, and award winners.

American League 

East Division

1. New York Yankees

It's hard to envision the Yankees not finishing at the top of the AL East this year. They've got the division's best or second-best pitching rotation, the best or second-best lineup, and the best bullpen in the league by far. The trick for Joe Girardi and the Yankees' brass will be trying to decide which three of Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia, Michael Pineda, and Ivan Nova will stick in their rotation after CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda. Don't forget that once May rolls around, one of them probably will be pushed out of the rotation in favor of Andy Pettitte. You know offense won't be the issue. Even if Father Time continues his assault on the production of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, and Mark Teixeira will still be a handful for opposing pitching staffs. 

2. Tampa Bay Rays

The hottest name of Spring Training in the AL this year has to be the Rays' soon-to-be phenom, Matt Moore. Teammates gushed about his stuff. Opposing scouts rave over his poise. Opposing hitters shudder while studying him in the film room. Add him to David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, and Jeff Niemann and you've got a staff that is absolutely loaded. Even their up-and-comers project well as big-leaguers- they're just blocked by the Rays' current top five. The Rays' bullpen, while not as stingy or well-known as that of the Yankees, is deeper. The major differences that set the Yankees apart from the Rays are simple: the Bombers have the better closer (the immortal Mariano Rivera versus Kyle Farnsworth) and a vastly superior offense. Where the Yankees trot out Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, and Nick Swisher, the Rays have Sean Rodriguez (who can't hit righties), Ben Zobrist (who might get moved to the outfield for Jeff Keppinger, hardly an improvement on the offensive end), Carlos Pena (who can't hit lefties or breaking balls), and Matt Joyce (a nice player who's about the same caliber of player as Swisher). Manager Joe Maddon will have to get clever with the lineup to squeeze as much production as he can out of them. I wouldn't be shocked if the Rays dealt James Shields for a bat around July. He's in a contract year and will probably bolt after this season anyway.

3. Boston Red Sox

Lots of people seem to be souring on the Red Sox, overreacting to the ugly end of last season's fried chicken-and-beer-themed suckfest they put on in September. The Sox still boast MLB's best 1-5 hitters in perennial MVP candidates Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and Adrian Gonzalez followed by the aging but still dangerous David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis. They also still have Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz in the rotation. That assortment of players alone will be enough to keep the Red Sox in the hunt in the AL East. Where things get hairy for Bobby Valentine is when he looks at the rest of the lineup card. Carl Crawford and his albatross of a contract are coming off the worst season since his days in Tampa. Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Kelly Shoppach are the catchers for now. While there has been deserved talk of a catching platoon, I bet one of these two will establish a strong rapport with the starting staff and cement his place in the lineup for at least 5-6 days out of a given week. The platoon-to-be in right does not inspire great confidence with Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney there. There's also the little matter of shortstop, where a Green Monster-sized hole remains. Giving away Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie wasn't the most auspicious start to new GM Ben Cherington's career. Even with a couple of holes in the lineup, those aren't even the biggest problems the Red Sox will have to solve. Right now, Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves project to be their #4 and #5 starters. In a division where the Red Sox might square off against 4's and 5's like Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann, Andy Pettitte, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, and Phil Hughes, their performance is going to be crucial to Boston's season success.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

A classic case of a team that would contend in every division except the one they're in. It would take an incredible streak of good fortune (or bad fortune if you're a Yankees, Rays, or Red Sox fan) for the Jays to play serious baseball in October. The Jays have a great offense, led by the exploits of Jose Bautista and a spate of others- Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus, Brett Lawrie, and Edwin Encarnacion bring the lumber for the Mounties. Pitching-wise, they're solid, but not spectacular. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow have days where they're unhittable, then days where they're just plain mediocre. In a division that boasts 4-5 ace-caliber starters, that's not good enough. They badly need one or both to take a major step forward to contend this year.

5. Baltimore Orioles

Despite having a fantastic end to their 2011 campaign, Buck's boys still face an uphill upmountain climb to reach the point they were at nearly 16 years ago. It's hard to believe it was only 16 years ago- feels like they haven't been there during my lifetime, anyway. As for the 2012 Orioles, their pitching woes are well-stated and well-known. That isn't their only issue, as once-promising players like Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis all face serious scrutiny and possibly, make-or-break points in their careers.

Central Division

1. Detroit Tigers

Is there any way the Tigers don't win this division? They have the best pitcher, reliever, two best hitters, and the best manager in the whole division, plus a healthy of amount of pitching with upside in the bullpen and rotation. Justin Verlander won't have a season like the one he just had ever again, but he won't need to in 2012. Even without Victor Martinez (torn ACL), the Tigers' offense will be loaded. Adding Prince was a totally unnecessary luxury move, but I liked it. Anytime you can add a young power bat in their prime and don't have to surrender anything but cash, you do it. And the Tigers did. The only questions I have- how bad will they be defensively? Will they be bad enough to cost Detroit four or more games, or just one or two? And can Doug Fister pick up where his second half left off last year? Frankly, I'm not convinced these questions matter enough to cost Detroit the AL Central.

2. Cleveland Indians

The Indians are an interesting team. To prove this, allow me to pose a hypothetical scenario for the division. Detroit gets a step-back season from Verlander, maybe 16-17 wins instead the 20 or more we have him penciled in for. We'll also guess the Detroit infielders play like they're using frying pans instead of Rawlings and cost the Tigers 6 games. PECOTA projects the Tigers to win 86 games (I'm figuring 90 wins, easy). Under my doomsday scenario, that drops to around 80 actual wins. Well, the Tribe is projected for 81 wins (totally reasonable). Let's also pretend Ubaldo Jimenez pitches like he's going up against Troy Tulowitzki and just has a take-no-prisoners year, and the offense gets a bounceback year from Shin-Soo Choo. Suddenly 81 looks modest, and the Indians walk away with 87 wins, steal the division, and host a playoff series. Doesn't seem that unrealistic, either. They will need a lot more from their youngsters, namely Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis.

3. Chicago White Sox

The White Sox aren't going to be terrible this year- they have enough talent in the field and pitching staff to be competitive. The problem is that they don't have enough of it, and a lot of the talent has peaked. If they plan on doing more than being competitive, they'll need every guy who underachieved for them (Adam Dunn, Alex Rios, Jake Peavy) to step up for them.

4. Kansas City Royals

This team has talent, oh my goodness, yes. The problem for the Royals is that it's all confined to their position players. Their pitching staff is decidedly mediocre. And they won't have Joakim Soria this year, either. Still, a team with Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and Billy Butler has good offensive potential. I just can't see them finishing higher than fourth with that pitching staff. Luke Hochevar? Bruce Chen? Jonathan Sanchez? Aaron Crow? At least Felipe Paulino has some upside to him.

5. Minnesota Twins

Though they were never a true dynasty (like the Yankees of the 90's, for example), the Twins were seemingly on the verge of an Atlanta Bravesesque run of division dominance before the dumpster fire that was 2011 happened. Every part of the Twins that made them a nuisance to their division rivals fell apart- Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, their bullpen, their starters. Tsuyoshi Nishioka was worse than Nick Punto in almost every way. Heading into 2012, these Twins look nothing like the late 2000's teams that routinely made the playoffs. The once-loaded roster now looks more like a rebuilding project than a big league lineup and the pitching staff would probably struggle in the National League. Unless Mauer goes back to his pre-Target Field self and Morneau stops seeing stars long enough to see fastballs, the team's offense will struggle mightily. As long as Francisco Liriano keeps pretending that the Target logo behind homeplate is actually where the catcher wants the ball, the rotation will be well below league average. I have no hope for their bullpen. With their minor-league system seemingly devoid of high-upside players ready to contribute to the MLB club, 2012 will look a lot like 2011 for Minnesota.

West Division

1. Texas Rangers

For years, American League fans were mostly left with one playoff race come August and September. (Hint: it featured two prominent AL East teams.) In 2012, that's all about to change. Out west, the stage is set for a major, season-long tussle between two of major league baseball's five best teams. In what will be the AL's closest, most intense race, I am picking Texas. The Rangers don't have the overwhelming pitching the Angels do, but the Angels are giving at-bats to the likes of Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, and Erick Aybar, the Rangers are giving at-bats to really outstanding veteran hitters. Even though Mike Napoli won't hit like Mike Piazza as he did in last season's second half, the lineup will still mash. The Rangers have no true ace, unless Yu Darvish turns out to be one. Even if he isn't, their rotation will still be very good, comfortably the fourth best in the AL, behind the Angels, Rays, and Yankees. They'll eat innings, pile up wins by protecting the leads their offense gets them and handing the ball off to their solid bullpen. I didn't like the Rangers' decision to move Alexi Ogando from the rotation or signing Joe Nathan, but the rest of the team is good enough to get the Rangers past the 90-win mark once more. 

2. Los Angeles Angels

Anaheim has a huge advantage on their division- a phenomenal and deep starting rotation. Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson, and Ervin Santana form as deep a 1-4 as any in the league. Though he'll likely struggle a little early on as he adjusts to the American League's pitchers, Albert Pujols will help solidify Mike Scioscia's offense. Throw in other solid hitters like Howie Kendrick and Mark Trumbo, plus the possible return to form of Kendrys Morales, and you're looking at a team that is one of the most well-rounded in the entire league. Problems within the roster creep up when you take a look at the Angels' very unangellike bullpen and their lineup after Pujols and Kendrick. Gone are the days of Scot Shields and K-Rod stonewalling opponents in the latter innings. Rookie closer Jordan Walden showed powerhouse stuff and handled the job very well for a rookie, but at times his inconsistency became problematic. The lineup is filled with guys who are either shadows of their former selves (Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells) or guys that just aren't that good (Erick Aybar, Alberto Callaspo, Chris Ianneta). With the tremendous depth among the AL's top five teams, one of them just isn't going to make it. I'll be a little surprised if it's the Angels given how strong their offseason adds were.

3. Oakland A's

The A's won't be a featured topic of conversation on ESPN or MLB Network very often in 2012, but if they are, it will be because of one of the most highly anticipated debuts in recent memory- that of Yoennis Cespedes, the 26-year old Cuban defect. While it is an understatement to call Cespedes raw and his success is not nearly as foregone a conclusion as what is expected of other top prospects or IFA's like Yu Darvish or Bryce Harper, that doesn't mean you shouldn't watch. You should definitely watch Yoennis. You shouldn't watch his teammates though. Or if you do, just don't it with kids or your better half around. The A's will be hard to watch. The lineup is woeful. The pitching staff has some good arms- Brandon McCarthy and top prospect Jarrod Parker, but these aren't your older brother's A's teams of the early 2000's. 

4. Seattle Mariners

If I had ranked the division based solely on talent, the A's would be here. Unfortunately, baseball is less about the most talented team and more about the most complete team, which the Mariners certainly are not. After big names like Felix Hernandez and Ichiro, how many other starting M's can you name off the top of your head? You might remember Chone Figgins (his ghost now plays in Seattle) or former Yankees uber-prospect Jesus Montero, but what do names like Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, Brendan Ryan, and Mike Carp mean to you? To me they look like a 60-win offense, tops. After you look at their rotation (after the King, obviously), it's hard to see this team exceeding even 70 wins. 

National League

East Divsion

1. Philadelphia Phillies

When I first started making my division predictions, I knew the NL East was going to be the hardest to handicap. Well, after the Phillies anyway. Even without Chase Utley or Ryan Howard for a large chunk of time, the Phillies should coast to yet another NL East division title behind the efforts of three players- Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Hunter Pence. Though their offense will be pedestrian without Utley and Howard to power it, a rotation headed by two of the game's three best pitchers, plus Cole Hamels and really-good-out-of-nowhere guy Vance Worley should be more than enough to keep the Phillies at or near their projected 90 wins. PECOTA has them at what seems an absurdly low 88 wins- I'm taking the over, big time. 

2. Atlanta Braves

This is where the NL East becomes brutal to pick. I could see any of the next three teams rearrange their order and find it completely believable. Miami is the sexy pick to finish near the top of the division, and it's easy to see why. However, I like the Braves' roster more. It's not based on any real facts or statistical analysis- it's strictly a gut call. It's Chipper's last year. That'll motivate the whole team to make stupid Chipper-themed cliches like "Win One for the Chipper" or "We've gotta win the 'Ship for Chip" (I could continue, but I won't.) I also expect Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman to be a lot better than they were in 2011. The Braves' real advantage over their divisional opponents (yes, even Philly) is in their Rays-like collection of great young arms. Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor are a quietly excellent top four and an interesting youngster in Randall Delgado rounding it out. Tim Hudson will join the fun, toss in an absolutely stacked bullpen, and the Braves won't be hurting for run-stoppers. They just need their offense to be a lot better than it was in 2011. 

3. Washington Nationals

It's probably crazy to put the Nats this high. They will pitch, I know that. In what has become a running theme for my predictions, I see yet another really solid rotation. This time, it's Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, Jordan Zimmerman, and John Lannan. Even with Strasburg's innings being closely monitored, the Nats will still probably boast a top 10, maybe top 8 rotation. It's hard for me to see their rotation exceeding what the rotations are in the Bronx, Tampa, Texas, Anaheim, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and   Phoenix. Ok, so top 8 is doable. The biggest point of anxiety for me in this pick is what looks like a putrid offense. Even with Jayson Werth added to Ryan Zimmerman, the Nats' offense will still be dreadful. Start the Bryce Harper countdown. 

4. Miami Marlins

On paper, the Marlins have the first or second-best roster in the division. Why am I so low on them? Truthfully, I really don't know. It's kind of the same kind of gut instinct I had about the Braves. Yes, a lineup with Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Logan Morrison at the top should be very good. A rotation with Josh Johnson (if healthy), Mark Buerhle, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, and Carlos Zambrano should be enough for the Marlins to be better than the Nationals or Braves, right? I just have a funny feeling about this team. I don't trust Johnson's shoulder. I like Buerhle, but the other pitchers don't do it for me. The bullpen doesn't either. Easy pick for the biggest disappointment of 2012, preseason edition. I totally expect this pick to blow up in my face.

5. New York Mets

Picking the NL East's second through fourth-place teams was brutal; picking the first and last-place teams was not. The Mets look doomed for another year of getting carved up by the New York papers and playing little brother to the Yankees in the Big Apple. After David Wright, the offense is full of question marks and young players. The pitching is even worse. No one knows what to expect from Johan Santana. Or Ike Davis. Or their bullpen as a whole. 

Central Division

1. St. Louis Cardinals

Fresh off their latest World Series conquest, the National League's gold standard organization is faced with another challenge: how to replace the franchise's greatest hitter since Stan Musial. Strangely, the Cardinals could be as good or better than they were last year. Though he will start the season with an injury issue, Chris Carpenter is back. Adam Wainwright returns from the Cardinals thought was a season-destroying injury. The rest of the rotation isn't sexy or flashy, but Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, and Jake Westbrook will somehow manage to be useful, just like every Cardinals' pitcher over the last 10 years. On the offensive side of things, no one can reasonably expect David Freese to keep up the ungodly playoff run he went on, nor is it safe to expect Lance Berkman to replicate the monster year he had. Facts are facts. Pujols was a once-in-a-generation impact bat whose presence made the whole lineup better. You have to accept there will be some regression. That regression just won't be enough to submarine the Cardinals in 2012.

2. Milwaukee Brewers

By far the most popular story in America's Dairyland this offseason had to be the tale of Ryan Braun and the Case of Mishandled Urine. No player will face more scrutiny this year in opposing ballparks. He will still finish a distant 26th behind the Yankees' regular 25 players in total boos this season, but I digress. Even if Braun wilts under the pressure, there's still plenty of offense to go around. Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, and newly acquired Aramis Ramirez will provide plenty of pop. Nyjer Morgan and Weeks will provide the speed at the top and they'll score plenty of runs. The guy who had the most heat taken off of himself by Braun's legal escapades was new 1B Mat Gamel, who won't be nearly as sought-after by nosy reporters as he would have been, even after replacing one of the league's premier sluggers. The rotation is superb, with Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke armed and ready to annihilate NL offenses and the bullpen is stocked with John Axford and K-Rod to polish off games.

3. Cincinnati Reds

In spite of the horrible contract they just ponied up for Joey Votto, the Reds have a lot going for them in 2012. After the Cardinals, the rest of the division isn't improved- the Brewers lost Prince Fielder, the Cubs blew up their front office, the Astros are too cheaply run to even field a team that barely resembles a AAA team, and the Pirates are the Pirates. The Reds are neither impressive hitters or pitchers. They're merely adequate-to-good at both, plus solid in the field. They upgraded their rotation by somehow stealing Mat Latos from the Padres to go along with Johnny Cueto and will patiently wait out Homer Bailey's and Mike Leake's developments. 

4. Chicago Cubs

After an offseason that saw the Cubs strike out on Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, but still swipe Theo Epstein from the Red Sox, life is pretty much the same as it was in North Chicago last year. They'll be competitive at times and brutal at other times...in other words, a macrocosm of Starlin Castro. Of all the teams in MLB, this is the team that figures to look the least like its Opening Day self on the season's final day. A lot of the team's good veterans are strong bets to get dealt. Players like Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Marlon Byrd, and Alfonso Soriano could all get dumped on someone else. It looks like that kind of year in Wrigley. 

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

It's odd to say, but there is hope on the horizon for the Pirates. There are promising young players on the club sprinkled all over the place- Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Garrett Jones, and former top-five pick Pedro Alvarez. All that hope in the offense is going to be needed, because their pitching rotation is garbage. Sure, A.J. Burnett and Erik Bedard were once somebodies in the AL, but does anyone trust them now? At least they came cheaply. 

6. Houston Astros

The Astros suffer from the same disease the Mariners do- crappy team in a rough division with bad management. Except they don't have an Ichiro or Felix Hernandez on their roster. It's really almost amazing how the Astros only five or six years ago were a major player in the NL every October. Other than the fact that there is absolutely zero chance they are relevant at all this year, I have very little to add on the Astros. 

West Division

1. Colorado Rockies

The NL West seemingly has a new division winner every year, and this year, it's the Rockies' turn. Possessing the division's premier offense, led by Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez plus a spate of other good players and the vets they added (Marco Scutaro and Michael Cuddyer), the Rockies will put up a ton of runs, especially at home. The rotation is a little bit suspect, but there's serious upside here. Jhoulys Chacin has potential to be their next Ubaldo Jimenez, Jeremy Guthrie has been a good-not-great-but-mostly-average starter who chews up innings (in other words, a good get for Colorado), and Juan Nicasio round out their top three starters. The #4 and #5 starters could be really interesting. Drew Pomeranz, one of the bounties collected from their pillaging of the Indians during last season's trade of Jimenez is the projected #4. He was a major part of getting that deal done, so clearly the Rockies love him. Like any rookie pitcher, expectations must be tempered. The last guy could somehow be Jamie Moyer. Wow. 

2. San Francisco Giants

The NL's best pitching rotation will once again have their work cut out for themselves by the bay. Their mission: allow two or fewer runs in every game or risk a loss (worst-case scenario) or a no-decision. 29 other pitching rotations would crumble under such extreme conditions, but the Giants do not have one of the 29 other pitching rotations. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, and the corpse of Barry Zito comprise a rotation so good, Lincecum (the headliner) was actually their third-best starter! Try that line on your friends and see what they say. It's weird, but true. For as good as the Giants are as a pitching staff, they are as bad of hitters. Getting Buster Posey back will be very nice for the Giants, but he'll carry a massive amount of pressure as the Giants' only hitter with upside this year (unless they figure out that Brandon Belt should be in the lineup). After Pablo Sandoval and Freddy Sanchez, the Giants will be left praying the rest of the lineup isn't complete crap. 

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

The surprise team of 2011 after an almost 30-win improvement figures to receive a heavy dose of reality this year. That's not to say the Dbacks will be bad- they'll be competitive. My problem with them is that their improvement was so sudden and massive that I think a return to somewhere in the middle of where they were two years ago and last year has to be in the offing. This is a solid team, I'm just not sure it's good enough to stay on top with the pressure of expectations on them. Their rotation, already very solid, could get a huge boost from two baseball's finest pitching prospects- Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs. 

4. Los Angeles Dodgers

Lost in all of the buzz and excitement surrounding Magic's return to L.A. is the fact that the Dodgers are less than a shell of what they once were. Once you get past Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, and to a lesser extent, Andre Ethier, the Dodgers are a decidedly average team. Chad Billingsley should be and probably will be traded while his value stays high. They'd never do it, but I wonder if the Dodgers shouldn't try to turn Kemp or Kershaw into a boatload of good young prospects and try and rebuild that way. This much is clear- the new owners have their work cut out for them. 

5. San Diego Padres

Much like the Pirates, the Padres have a lot of good, young talent. The problem is that most of it is in the minors or ready to go through some growing pains on-field for the Dads in 2012. Dealing Mat Latos was a blow to a fanbase that has had to see Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez leave in recent years, but the return on investment was great- they plundered the Reds' farm system very nicely. The fans will have to be patient. As for the 2012 Padres, they're looking at another long year.

Award Winners: 

AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver, Angels

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Moore, Rays

NL Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper, Nationals

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Joe Mauer, Twins

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Edinson Volquez, Padres

Playoff Predictions 

American League

Wild Card Showdown 

Rays vs. Angels (Rays win)

ALDS

Yankees versus Rays (Yankees in 6)

Rangers versus Tigers (Rangers in 7)

ALCS 

Yankees vs. Rangers (Yankees in 7)

National League

Wild Card Showdown

Brewers vs. Braves (Braves win)

NLDS

Phillies vs. Braves (Phillies in 7)

Cardinals vs. Rockies (Cardinals in 5)

NLCS

Phillies vs. Cardinals (Cardinals in 6)

World Series

Yankees vs. Phillies (Yankees in 6)