2012 NBA Mock Draft

With the most watchable draft in all of sports around the corner, I present my own take on who will be taken and where. This is a prediction of who will be taken. I will also provide my own take on who I would pick, if I were the GM of that team. This year's draft has been characterized as "Anthony Davis and everyone else" but I don't agree with that. I'm not saying that Davis isn't the clear-cut choice for the top pick, merely that he has as many holes in his game as any other top prospect. His limitations are just much smaller than anyone else's. We could very well see a player like Perry Jones or Andre Drummond blow Anthony Davis out of the water as a pro. That's what I love about the NBA draft- you never know where your next star is going to come from.

Without further ado, my 2012 NBA Mock Draft.

1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky
-Davis is by far the best prospect to come along since Greg Oden in 2007. Davis is a phenomenal ball-handler for a big and has a nice mid-range jump shot for a guy his size. He should easily replicate what the aged Marcus Camby has provided over the last few years (basically 10 points, 8-10 rebounds, and 2+ blocks a game) but should and will continue to develop as he grows into a professional. 

Who I'd Take: Davis
- It's simple- when you pick first, take the best player available. You can always trade the guy at his position later. That's exactly what New Orleans did when they dealt Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor to Washington earlier this month. Smart, smart move by Dell Demps. 

2. Charlotte Bobcats: Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas
- Charlotte has so many needs (including new uniforms) that they cannot go wrong with any of their picks, provided he has a pulse, is taller than 6', and can actually dribble a basketball. This is year one of what looks like a long rebuild and adding a grinder like Thomas Robinson to a team that's not renowned for its work ethic would certainly help.

Who I'd Take: Bradley Beal
- Look, Charlotte has a ton of needs, but their bigs aren't the worst in the league. Sure, Tyrus Thomas, Bismack Biyombo, and DeSagana Diop could be a hell of a lot worse- just look at Detroit's bigs. Yeah, they have Greg Monroe, but that's it. The Bobcats already know they're looking a long, uphill climb- why not take the best backcourt prospect in the draft so they don't have to start Gerald Henderson every night? Ideally, they would trade this pick to Cleveland for the Cavs' two first rounders. 

3. Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal, SG, Florida
- With their front line mostly settled after acquiring Nene at the trading deadline and Emeka Okafor before the draft, the temptation to take Andre Drummond should be gone for the Wizards. Beal is the clear-cut top backcourt player in the draft and fits a need for the Wizards perfectly.

Who I'd Take: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
- Since Beal is gone in "my" mock, the Wizards take the Scottie Pippen clone out of Kentucky. While his jumper is a work in progress, MKG's work ethic, passion for the game, and athleticism are not. Pairing him with John Wall on the break would be a sight to behold. Even seeing a Wizard actually play defense would probably be a sight to behold for their fans. 

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Harrison Barnes, SF, UNC
- The trendy pick has Michael Kidd-Gilchrist going here, but I think the Cavs will want a more well-rounded player, even if he's not as aggressive or athletic as Kidd-Gilchrist.

Who I'd Take: Harrison Barnes
- See above. The Cavs are surely praying to their LeBron-hating Gods that Beal somehow falls here, but I'm going to rain on that dream, too. No way Beal makes it to four. Why else would Cleveland be talking about trading up to 2?

5. Sacramento Kings: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky
Just like every other crappy lottery team, the Kings are atrocious at defense. Since that's one of MKG's calling cards and he also plays a position of need, this is a slam-dunk pick for the Kings.

Who I'd Take: Thomas Robinson
- The Kings' projected power forwards for next year: Jason Thompson (RFA) and Hassan Whiteside. Geoff Petrie better have Robinson's agent on speed dial. 

6. Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State
- Coming off a year where Portland employed the worst point guard play in the NBA, it comes to no one's surprise that the Blazers would target the top prospect at the position in the draft. Despite facing the worst competition of any 1st round prospect, Lillard dominated workouts, the Chicago combine, and aced his Portland work out. This pick looks pretty safe on paper, but Neil Olshey took two hyper-athletic bigs during his time as GM of the Clippers (DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin). For that reason, I wouldn't be shocked if Andre Drummond was the pick.

Who I'd Take: Andre Drummond
- I'm of course aware that Portland's point guard play was awful in 2011. So was their center play. After dealing Marcus Camby at the trade deadline, the Blazers used a combo of J.J. Hickson, Joel Przybilla, and Kurt Thomas at center. Even with the NBA game shifting out of the paint to the perimeter, that's still a terrible collection of centers. Even Michael Jordan has to laugh at that one. If Lillard is gone by this pick, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Portland trades this pick to Houston for Kyle Lowry. 

7. Golden State Warriors: Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse
- I know they took a SG early last year and that Andre Drummond's agent would probably be giving Golden State GM Bob Myers puppy eyes by this point, but the Warriors have had a weird obsession with taking great offensive players that dates back all the way to the days of Rick Barry, regardless of whether or not they fill a need. Waiters is the most explosive guard in the class and the one guy I'd pick to outproduce the guards taken ahead of him.

Who I'd Take: Waiters
- With no Monta Ellis around, the Warriors could use some scoring balance in their backcourt. 


8. Toronto Raptors: Austin Rivers, SG, Duke
- I wouldn't envy GM Byran Colangelo if this were to happen. Not only are the two players he covets (Lillard and Waiters) gone, but there's no finesse European worth reaching for at 8. What would the odds be that he simply wanders into traffic or sets himself on fire if this was to occur? I'm tempted to say he'd take Rivers, since he's the closest thing to Waiters left in the draft.

Who I'd Take: Lillard
- The Raps would clearly prefer if the draft followed my scenario, which would allow them to draft Lillard and not bother with thoughts of suicide. 

9. Detroit Pistons: Andre Drummond, C, UConn
- No other draft pick, except Anthony Davis slipping to the second pick, would make their front office happier. Joe Dumars has long coveted a big man to put next to Greg Monroe. Drummond has a lot of red flags, namely productivity, motor, and work ethic concerns, but he's also the closest thing to Dwight Howard since Dwight and his only 18 years old. For a kid that young to come into the NBA with the combination of athleticism and size that makes him instantly one of the league's best athletes is truly amazing. If he had harnessed it better as a freshman, Davis would be the 2nd-best prospect by far. That kind of potential is what makes Drummond the 2012 draft's most interesting player.


Who I'd Take: Meyers Leonard
-With Drummond gone in my own mock, the Pistons take the next best thing at center. 


10. New Orleans Hornets: Kendall Marshall, PG, UNC
-I'm sure the Hornets would be disappointed to see Rivers come off the board before they pick, but getting a point guard like Marshall at 10 has to feel like a pretty nice consolation prize. I'm not in love with Marshall's game beyond his passing, but he was starting to show a developing offensive game before injuring his wrist in the NCAA tournament and his size for the position is excellent. With a great shot blocker in place in Davis, the Hornets could live with Marshall's limited lateral quickness, as a number of players who get by Marshall would find Davis waiting to swat their shots.

Who I'd Take: Austin Rivers
- The idea of pairing the draft's most NBA-ready big with its most NBA-ready perimeter player has to be tempting. A shooting guard or even Marshall are considerations here. 

11. Portland Trail Blazers: Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois
- As I stated when I explained why I took Drummond instead of Lillard for the Blazers at 6, the Blazers' front court is dangerously thin. Leonard is an interesting prospect that is like a white version of Andre Drummond. While he's not nearly as athletic or long as Drummond, Leonard measured pretty similarly to Drummond and Portland's front court won't have improved between 6 and 11.

Who I'd Take: Terrence Ross
- This may seem like a reach, but hear me out. Portland recently had to deal with the loss of all-world SG Brandon Roy, who now appears primed for a comeback tour. My point is, the Blazers have a gaping hole at SG. Since Portland is the Siberia of the NBA and it's harder to entice players to stay, it makes great sense to draft a guy with local connections who also happens to play like Roy. 

12. Houston Rockets: Tyler Zeller, C, UNC
- Having just dealt Sam Dalembert to the Bucks, the Rockets now need another center. Daryl Morey's dreams of producing the first all-white starting unit in the NBA since the mid-20th century are still in tact even though he just traded Chase Budinger to Minnesota. Imagine a lineup of Goran Dragic, Chandler Parsons, Luis Scola, and Tyler Zeller. Kevin Martin kind of screws the whiteout part up, but he's not exactly Luol Deng either. The Rockets would be as close as any team since the '86 Celtics to achieving their goal. Seriously, though, Zeller is a nice, safe pick that will play for the Rockets right away and not embarrass himself.

Who I'd Take: Perry Jones III
- Who's the last big-time impact player the Rockets had? Yao Ming? Hakeem? That's what I thought. The Rockets have a versatile ensemble of role players and scorers, they just lack a star. Jones is their best chance at a superstar this late in the draft.

13. Phoenix Suns: Jeremy Lamb, SG, UConn
- If Lamb had gone pro last year, he would have been a top-8 pick easily. Getting a player of his talent and size at 13 has to feel good for Suns fans.

Who I'd Take: Lamb

14. Milwaukee Bucks: Terrence Jones, SF, Kentucky
Another victim of staying in school, Jones went from a top-5 pick to a borderline lottery pick in the span of the year. When he sacrificed his own personal stats to make Kentucky into the national champions they became, he displayed a team-first attitude as well as a variety of skills that should make him an interesting prospect.

Who I'd Take: Jones

15. Philadelphia 76ers: John Henson, PF, UNC
This is a great value for the 76ers. I'm sure they'd be disappointed that none of the top SG's managed to slip to 15, but grabbing a shot blocker and defender like Henson at 15 is a nice grab for the 76ers. They don't really have a shot-blocker on their roster right now.

Who I'd Take: Henson

16. Houston Rockets: Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's
-A testament to how deep this draft is when a player with lottery talent falls to 16. The St. John's wing had his draft stock killed by a year in which he spent much of the time playing center. He has nice athleticism and lots of potential.

Who I'd take: Harkless
- He also provides insurance against Perry Jones' meniscus issues.

17. Dallas Mavericks: Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State
- Dirk Nowitzki is not getting any younger. Brandan Wright, Ian Mahinmi, and Shawn Marion are not world-beaters. With free agent help likely on the way and Lamar Odom on his way out of Dallas, it makes sense for the Mavs to reinforce their frontcourt depth.

Who I'd Take: Tony Wroten
- It is a virtual lock that the Mavs will have a strong, veteran point guard for the next 3-4 years. Who better than the likes of Deron Williams, Steve Nash, or Jason Kidd to teach the ropes to a project with Tyreke Evans-esque athleticism and size?

18. Houston Rockets: Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky
- The Rockets won't be very deep at guard heading into free agency and could lose Goran Dragic in free agency. Hedging their bets with a solid, if unspectacular point guard like Teague would be smart.

Who I'd Take: Teague

19. Orlando Magic: Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State
Red-listed after getting flagged by NBA doctors because of his back injury issues, this still a good value for the Magic. They already have a guy like Sullinger on their roster in Big Baby Davis, but the value is too high not to take Sullinger.


Who I'd Take: Kendall Marshall

20. Denver Nuggets: Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure
- The Nuggets have become the Rocky Mountain edition of the Golden State Warriors. They have done very well by drafting high-energy, high-effort scoring players. Nicholson isn't heralded, but the Nuggets are rumored to be enamored with him. That's good enough for me.

Who I'd Take: Nicholson

21. Boston Celtics: Royce White, SF, Iowa State
- The most interesting player in the draft, Royce White carries a LeBron-like frame and has solid athleticism. The nation's most famous Celtic fan, Bill Simmons, also endorses this pick.

Who I'd Take: White


22. Boston Celtics: Fab Melo, C, Syracuse
- Can anyone name the Celtics' reserve bigs? Anyone? Case closed on this pick.


Who I'd Take: Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State
-Imagine Kevin Garnett playing next to Jared Sullinger and Royce White instead of Brandon Bass and Greg Stiemsma for a moment. Imagine that the Celtics had that frontcourt against Miami in the playoffs. It's tempting to say that they'd win that Game 7.


23. Atlanta Hawks: Jeffrey Taylor, SF, Vanderbily
- I think the Hawks are the hardest team to predict in the lottery. For that reason, I can see them going BPA here. It's really too bad that most of the worthy PFs were gone by this point.

Who I'd Take: Taylor

24. Cleveland Cavaliers: John Jenkins, SG, Vanderbilt
- The Cavs won't be happy that Taylor went one pick before they picked, so they decide to take his teammate, the sharp-shooting Jenkins.

Who I'd Take: Festus Ezeli, C Vanderbilt
-Cleveland is still a work in progress as a roster, much like Ezeli as a player. He does have a NBA body and the requisite athleticism to play center in the league. With Anderson Varejao, Tristan Thompson, and Samardo Samuels on board, the Cavs would have enough time to be patient with Ezeli. 

25. Memphis Grizzlies: Tyshawn Taylor, PG, Kansas
- This is kind of a reach, but the Grizzlies need more athleticism and useful players in their backcourt to go along with Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo. Their lack of backcourt depth killed them against the Clippers in the playoffs. Adding Taylor to the mix is a step in the right direction.

Who I'd Take: Taylor

26. Indiana Pacers: Will Barton, SG, Memphis
- Evan Fournier is a guy who get a long look from new GM Kevin Pritchard, who drafted three Europeans while he was the GM in Portland. At the end of the day, I expect the Pacers to stay in the states and gamble on Barton's prodigious athleticism. Darius Miller would be an interesting pick here.


Who I'd Take: Evan Fournier, SG, France


27. Miami Heat: Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor
- One year after snagging an impactful rookie late in the first round, the Heat strike gold again. Miller is still recovering from an ACL injury he sustained in high school or else he would have been gone 15 picks ago. As it stands right now, he can stretch the floor and offers more athleticism than Mike Miller and Shane Battier combined. If he can get right and reach the level some projected for him coming out of high school, this pick will ruin the NBA's competitive balance for the next decade.

Who I'd Take: Miller

28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky
- The NBA Finals exposed the Thunder as a three-man team on offense. They weren't getting enough offense off their bench, so getting a guy used to playing in big moments and who also happens to possess a nice jumper makes this a logical fit for the Thunder. Pairing Lamb with Thabo Sefolosha and James Harden only improves OKC's offense.

Who I'd Take: Lamb

29. Chicago Bulls: Evan Fournier, SG, France
- It was only a matter of time before a European was taken. Unlike last year, this draft was basically devoid of quality European players. Fournier is the exception to that trend in 2012. While I don't expect him to come overseas for a couple of years, this is the kind of upside-laden pick that smart franchises make when they can afford to.

Who I'd Take: Barton


30. Golden State Warriors: Festus Ezeli, C, Vanderbilt
-As I stated earlier, Ezeli is a nice athlete and has a good build. He'll also bust his tail and play defense, something the Warriors have been lacking for a while in the front court.

Who I'd Take: Draymond Green, SF, Michigan State

Five Things I'm Looking for in the NBA Finals

Quick update: I know it's been a while since my last post, and that's on me. I've been busy with work and busy working on my offseason college football preview. I've finished my All-Conference teams for the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC and completed most of my summer Top 25. All that's left is for me to finish my conference previews and predictions. In the meantime, I decided to write a quick post about the upcoming NBA Finals. Here are a few of the storylines and matchups I'll be looking at closely in this series.

5. Small ball versus big ball
Both Oklahoma City and Miami have enjoyed success in the playoffs brought about by moving their superstar small forward to the power forward position and playing small ball. Miami's move was necessitated by the injury to Chris Bosh and their lack of depth along the front line. Strictly speaking, Oklahoma City didn't have to move Durant to win the Western Conference finals. They did it for matchups against the Spurs.
In this series, it's clear that OKC's biggest advantage is along the front line, where they can trot out Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, and Nick Collison to do battle with Chris Bosh, Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem, and Ronny Turiaf. With San Antonio off the schedule, Oklahoma City can go back to playing big- but that may change if the Heat stay with their Haslem/Bosh-LeBron-Shane Battier-Dwyane Wade-Mario Chalmers lineup. I really don't know what to expect. Foul trouble on a guy like Ibaka, Bosh, or Perkins could swing entire halves of games. Which brings me to my next point...

4. Refereeing
I know, I know. You hate refs. I hate refs. We all hate NBA refs and we would all enjoy our lives a little bit more if we never had to learn any of their names. Sadly, that's just not the case and they'll be out there with the Heat and Thunder for game one on Tuesday. Historically, referees tend to favor home teams. You'd think, then, that I'm about to say "Matchup: OKC." I suppose I could simply count the number of home games and make that assertion, but I won't. The NBA Finals' 2-3-2 format is an extremely interesting alignment. Suppose Miami wins one or both of the first two games in Oklahoma. Then they get to go back to South Beach with a chance at winning two or three of the next three games in their home arena. Assuming they win one of the first two games, the series could be over before it returns to Oklahoma City and Miami will have played three games at home to the Thunder's two. Some may argue that's not fair, but them's the breaks, I guess.

3. James Harden's Beard
Truthfully, this should just read, "Who the hell is going to guard Harden for the Heat in this series?" I just love that beard too much not to make a ton of passing references to it. Anyway, it's pretty obvious to see what the matchups look like in the Finals. I'm assuming that Miami will resume starting Chris Bosh, move LeBron back to SF where he belongs, move Shane Battier to the bench and make Udonis Haslem or Joel Anthony a starter again. The only matchups we can guarantee are that Anthony or Haslem will guard Perkins, Bosh will guard Ibaka, and LeBron will guard Durant. How the backcourt matchup between Dwyane Wade and Mario Chalmers and Russell Westbrook and James Harden lines up will be very interesting. To start, I expect Miami will slide Chalmers onto Harden and make Wade cover Westbrook. If Harden starts destroying Chalmers, don't be shocked if Chalmers gets benched and Shane Battier makes an appearance in a weird Wade-James-Battier-Bosh-Anthony lineup now and then.

2. Will the real Dwyane Wade please stand up?
In a span of a few weeks, Wade went from reminding us why he won the Finals MVP in 2006 to "he's hurt again." I'll keep this brief. Wade needs to bring his A game for this Finals. He'll be covering Westbrook and Harden for the overwhelming majority of the series, so he'll need to stay out of foul trouble while also getting his off of OKC's young perimeter players and drawing fouls on their bigs. The Thunder aren't as good defensively as the Pacers or Celtics, so Wade will find getting his points a lot easier. He just needs to stay on the court and play good defense. That means he should quit squawking at the refs and get back on defense more often. You know Westbrook and Harden won't stop and wait for him.

1. The LeBron James-Kevin Durant Matchup
Of course this is number one. It seems like everyone and their dog is hyperinterested in this particular matchup, and I'm no different. To me, it kind of hearkens back to the 1992 Finals between Portland and Chicago, where one of the top stories was Michael Jordan against Clyde Drexler for the title of best shooting guard in the NBA. Of course, we all remember what happened. Jordan went nuts and out-played Drexler basically the whole series. Drexler was never the same player afterwards.
Fast forward to 2012, and a similar debate over who the better player between LeBron and Durant rages. On a national level, this series will choose for the public who the best player in the NBA is now. It's a stupid premise, but it exists. Personally, I'd need to see Durant become one of the NBA's five best on-ball defenders, assist men, and start rebounding at a higher level. Basketball is such a multifaceted and complex sport to analyze (just look at the last 10 NBA drafts) with so many different skills within its framework that I have a hard time saying a guy who is better at more different elements isn't as good as a player who's not. Durant is comfortably a top-3 NBA player, and that's an absolute worst-case scenario.

Here's a look at how LeBron and Durant have fared against each other (Courtesy of basketball-reference.com)

Player         G W L GS   MP  FG  FGA  FG%  3P 3PA  3P%  FT FTA  FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PF  PTS
LeBron James   9 7 2  9 37.4 9.7 19.4 .497 2.0 4.9 .409 5.4 7.2 .754 0.6 5.3 5.9 7.1 2.4 1.2 2.8 1.4 26.8
Kevin Durant   9 2 7  9 39.7 9.4 19.9 .475 2.0 4.0 .500 6.4 7.7 .841 0.9 5.4 6.3 2.9 1.7 0.7 3.7 1.8 27.3

Pretty similar.
I will say this for Durant- this will be the most difficult series of his entire life. He's never faced a player with the defensive capability of LeBron in a playoff series and this is his first go-round in the NBA Finals. As stated earlier, Miami has a humongous advantage over the Thunder in Finals experience. LeBron knows the stakes a heck of a lot more than Durant and will be extra motivated to win this series. When LeBron isn't guarding Durant, Shane Battier will. Durant's work is cut out for him.


The prediction:

Everyone likes Oklahoma City in this matchup and they probably should be favored. I disagree, and will stick with my preseason prediction of Miami over Oklahoma City in 6. LeBron wins his first ring and Skip Bayless immolates himself on national television. And there was much rejoicing.