I haven't written about the NFL in awhile (something ESPN could take a hint from) but I'm starting to rekindle my interest in the next NFL season. I've been reading the stuff on Pro Football Talk and watching Mike Florio talk about the next season. Recently, he talked about the recent NFL trend of teams making the playoffs the next year at a 50% clip. In short, six of the twelve teams that made the playoffs last year probably won't make it next year. The premise of this article is to explore each conference division-by-division and figure out who the lucky and unlucky six are in the league this year. We'll start in the NFC.
NFC East
DeMeco Ryans
Last year's NFC East was full of optimism and high expectations for the season after the offseasons that their respective members put together. When the rubber hit the road, the division was a big fat disappointment as only the New York Giants made the playoffs, ultimately winning the Super Bowl. Philadelphia struggled with injuries, inconsistency, and they blew five second-half leads. Dallas was in position to take the division but laid a huge egg against the Giants late in the season. The Redskins were an odd team as they played to the level of their opponents, beating teams like the Giants and losing to teams like the Vikings.
Each team in the division looks like they have all improved as much as any team in 2012. The Eagles added DeMeco Ryans via free agency and drafted DL Fletcher Cox and DE Vinny Curry in the draft. Dallas selected the draft's best non-QB player in Morris Claiborne and also signed former Chiefs CB Brandon Carr. The Giants opted for more cosmetic additions, taking Virginia Tech RB David Wilson and LSU WR Reuben Randle.
1. Dallas
2. Philadelphia
3. New York
4. Washington
You're going to be feeling a lot worse
if 2012 isn't the Cowboys' year, Tony
With the window closing on Dallas and the pressure on Tony Romo reaching LeBron James levels, the time is now for the Cowboys to make their run to the Super Bowl. It won't be easy with the division becoming even more of a slaughterhouse, but I like the Cowboys' roster composition, schemes, and durability more than the Eagles'. It's hard for me to trust Mike Vick to stay healthy for a whole season and their division is just a little bit harder than Dallas'. I might change my mind by the end of the preseason. The Eagles did finish 4-0 down the stretch and expectations are much lower this year. The Giants haven't shown a great propensity for focus and concentration when they have the spotlight on them, despite Eli Manning's development into a truly elite QB. This will be a developmental year for the Redskins as they will have to continue to add offensive pieces around Robert Griffin.
NFC North
The 2011 NFC North drew a lot of attention going into the season as many prognosticators and fans saw the rise of the Lions and the establishment of the Packers as the conference's clear-cut best team well before the season started. There was also interest in how Chicago would respond to Jay Cutler one year after his atrocious NFC Championship Game the year prior. It was obvious to many that the Packers were the best and the Vikings the worst teams in the division. 2011 didn't disappoint. Green Bay raced out to a 15-1 record despite having the worst defense and pass rush in the NFL, the Lions rang up points and yards at an absurd rate and made the playoffs, and the Bears were enjoying a breakthrough season for Cutler until he and RB Matt Forte suffered injuries. The Vikings struggled but got a glimpse of their future as they handed the reigns of their franchise to Christian Ponder.
Together again
This offseason, the only team that made any major improvements was the Bears. They booted OC/QB serial killer Mike Martz (replaced by Mike Tice), brought in Brandon Marshall to complete their version of the triplets and they added another pass rusher in the draft by selecting Boise State's Shea McClellin. Green Bay lost C Scott Wells via free agency and signed the ancient Jeff Saturday to replace him. They also have to find a suitable replacement to Chad Clifton- I'm just not convinced that player is on their roster. Their biggest loss might have been QB coach Joe Philbin, who bolted for South Beach. Compounding their problems was a draft devoid of players who will contribute much to their 2012 team.
The Lions are basically the same team they were last year and they still need to mature as a team before I take them seriously as a playoff contender. The Vikings are still developing, and are a couple of years away from booting the Packers and Bears out of this division's catbird seat. These next two-three years are crucial so they can put a quality team on the field in their new stadium.
1. Chicago
2. Green Bay
3. Detroit
4. Minnesota
Chicago is probably the most complete team in the NFC. They play solid defense, have a top-10 QB, added an elite WR, and are very well-coached. Although they have struggled with Green Bay since the Packers switched to a 3-4 defense, their defense is the the only one that has shown any kind of ability to slow down the Aaron Rodgers offense in recent years. Considering the struggles that the Packers' defense went through in 2011 along with the fact that the majority of the same personnel are still on the roster, they figure to be this division's worst defense again. It will be up to Rodgers and the passing attack to win games again, as their running game doesn't figure to get any better either. Detroit is stuck in the unenviable position of facing two teams they are clearly inferior to in their division four times coupled with a much more difficult schedule.
NFC South
That facial expression reminds me
of William Wallace in Braveheart. Just like
Mel Gibson/William Wallace, Brees will have
to do pretty much everything in order for his
team to have any chance of success.
There will be a lot of eyes on this division in 2012, especially after what transpired in New Orleans this offseason. Gone are HC Sean Payton, DC Gregg Williams, MLB Jonathan Vilma. With the loss of those players, team stability figures to be a huge issue. Even with QB Drew Brees coming back, this team is still headed for a decline. The NFL is a leadership league. Teams that have quality leadership at their key structure points (owner, GM, head coach, and QB) are also teams that compete on a year-to-year basis. With the fractures in their front office, it figures to be a long year in New Orleans. Drew Brees will carry more responsibility than any QB has in recent memory, including Peyton Manning during his time with the Colts.
That's all well-and-good, but what does all this mean for the rest of the division? Well, if you live in Atlanta, you should be ecstatic- you can bank on hosting at least one playoff game this year. That's how much better the Falcons are than the rest of their NFC South colleagues. Cam Newton might have taken the NFL by storm as a rookie, but he needs to improve his passing and close out more games on a more efficient basis. The Panthers still need time to fix their defense. The Bucs appear to be on a teetering point as a franchise. It might seem like ancient history now, but the Bucs used to be a regularly bad team, year after year after year. Once they hired Tony Dungy, their fortunes turned and they even won a Super Bowl. Since that time, they've been a relatively stable, if unspectacular team. With the team in flux after Raheem Morris got fired and several high draft choices busted, the onus is on new coach Greg Schiano to save the Bucs from themselves.
1. Atlanta
2. New Orleans
3. Carolina
4. Tampa Bay
New Orleans may have a leadership deficiency issue to fix, but they still have the division's best QB and that alone will be enough to keep them in the top half of the division. I expect a little regression from Cam Newton in Carolina and the Bucs' roster simply isn't talented enough to win more than 8 games next year unless Josh Freeman returns to the form he showed in 2010. (I'm not ruling that out) All Atlanta has to do is basically what they've been doing since they hired Mike Smith. That should be more than enough to win this division.
NFC West
Is #15 the biggest x-factor in the NFC? He might be.
The NFC West was home to the NFL's surprise team of 2011, as the 49ers and rookie HC Jim Harbaugh took the NFC West by TKO and were within a couple of fumbles of making the Super Bowl despite lacking everything most of the media talking heads say you need to have to be a NFL power (elite QB, vertical passing game, experienced HC). They benefited from good health, a vastly improved turnover ratio and won a few close games they could easily have lost- all of which are signs that suggest a regression in 2012 (A.K.A. the law of averages). Even if they do regress as predicted here, they should still be the class of the NFC West. Arizona has the second-most talented roster in the division but a big unknown at QB. The Seahawks are similar to Arizona and also have their own mystery at QB in the newly acquired Matt Flynn and the Rams are back in rebuilding mode again.
1. San Francisco
2. Seattle
3. Arizona
4. St. Louis
Expect more of the same if you're on the Niners'
schedule in 2012
The 49ers are the NFL's anti-Packers. They play great defense, run the ball, and aren't dependent on one player to win their games. What other NFL team could lose their starting QB in the first part of the season and still make the playoffs? I'd say Houston for sure and after that all bets are off for me. That's why I'm taking the 49ers to win the west once more. The Seahawks had another interesting offseason with more adds and drops than my fantasy team and are once again trying out a new QB under Pete Carroll. Their roster is as strong as it's been since they were a perennial threat to win the NFC West under Mike Holmgren and their schedule is soft enough to justify them winning 10 games if they get enough breaks and Flynn lives up to the hype. This division would get really interesting if the Cardinals could somehow rectify their QB position and get some stability out of it.
Playoff Predictions
As I remarked at the beginning of this post, the NFL has enjoyed some tremendous parity in recent years. If we hold the 50% rule as a truth, then we can reason that at least three really good teams that made the playoffs in 2011 won't be making return visits next January. In the 2012 NFC, my picks for the unlucky three are the Giants, Lions, and and Saints. In the cases of the Giants and Lions it's a matter of their divisional competition improving while they remained roughly the same. Remember, the Giants and Lions probably wouldn't have made the playoffs last year if the Cowboys and Eagles played to their talent level. The Lions already looked like they were going to be on the outside looking in last year until Jay Cutler broke his hand. Oh, and this.
2012 NFC Playoffs
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Chicago Bears
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Wild Card Round
Eagles at 49ers
Packers at Bears
49ers and Bears advance to divisional round
Divisional Round
Bears at Cowboys
49ers at Falcons
49ers and Cowboys win
NFC Championship
49ers at Cowboys (Winner to be announced when I do my AFC preview.)
This would be a fascinating championship game and a throwback to the 80's and 90's. The 49ers and Cowboys have met seven times in the playoffs and four of these games have resulted in the winner reaching and winning the Super Bowl. (1981, 1992, 1993, and 1994)
Who could honestly ever forget this play? It's the NFL's version of Michael Jordan's famous shot against the Cavs.
