1. Kansas
City Chiefs- Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
After the
Chiefs acquired Alex Smith from the 49ers in one of the hands-down worst moves
of the early NFL offseason (it cost too much and the Chiefs don't have a team
to supplement Smith's talents like the 49ers do), they signaled to the rest of
the NFL that this will the first NFL draft since 2008 to see a non-QB taken
first overall. That year, LT Jake Long went first and I expect the Chiefs will
take a LT here to begin rebuilding their offense. They could also go for a
defensive player if their management falls in love with one, like Dee Milliner.
Even so, Joeckel is the best LT in the draft. He reminds me of Tony Boselli,
who had a great, if all too brief career for the Jaguars in the 1990’s. Eric
Fisher might be trendier after his combine performance, but Joeckel is superior
in almost every way- he had top-end coaching at every level of his amateur
career and was the best non-Manziel offensive player in the SEC last year. He's
not quite as powerful in the running game, but with the Chiefs bringing back
Branden Albert to be their RT, there's less of a need for another mauling
offensive tackle here.
2.
Jacksonville Jaguars- Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
Gus Bradley
built his Seattle defenses under Pete Carroll upon a foundation of lethal pass
rushing. I expect this trend will continue in northern Florida. Jordan is one
of the most athletically gifted linemen to enter the NFL in years.
3. Oakland
Raiders- Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
Let’s see-
the Raiders’ current defensive depth chart shows Christo Bilukidi and Richard
Seymour as the starting tackles for the Raiders. That’s a pretty gaping hole to
have in your defense. At least half a dozen upper-tier BCS teams are better off
at DT than the Raiders are.
4.
Philadelphia Eagles- Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
Nnamdi
Asomugha is gone. So is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Chip Kelly may be best
known for his progressive style of offense and practices, but he’s not
oblivious to defense. In a division with Eli Manning, Tony Romo, and RG3,
having a dependable secondary is a must.
5. Detroit
Lions- Eric Fisher, LT, Central Michigan
My least
favorite part of doing mock drafts is trying to figure out how teams do their
draft boards and melding this with how other experts view the board. Some,
notably Mike Mayock, rate Fisher over Joeckel. The Lions have a need on the
offensive line after Gosder Cherilus bailed on the Motor City. Based on Jim
Schwartz’s track record during his time in Detroit, I’m guessing the Lions are
a “best player available” lean when it comes to drafting prospects. Unless they
have a guy like Ansah, Mingo, or another player rated more highly than Fisher,
my guess is they take the former Chippewa.
6. Cleveland
Browns- Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
Yeah, I know
they signed Paul Kruger. It doesn’t matter. With Milliner off the board, this
is the next-best way to fix the Browns’ secondary- by creating a vicious pass
rush bookended by their top FA and top draft choice. I love Ansah’s upside more
than any other player in this draft’s. He’s following a path that Marcel Dareus
and Jason Pierre-Paul did- born overseas, started football later in life,
drafted high in the NFL draft. I like that track record.
7. Arizona
Cardinals- Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
It’s no
secret that Arizona’s worst deficiencies in 2012 were at quarterback and
offensive line. With Carson Palmer now playing football in the desert, the QB
position has been stabilized for the time being. That leaves the Cardinals to fill
their offensive line needs with this pick. Lane Johnson may not be on Joeckel
or Fisher’s level, but he is a highly athletic specimen with great size. There’s
no other way to describe Johnson, a former quarterback and defensive end in the
amateur ranks. He’s raw as a result, but the potential is there. Expect the
Chargers to make a huge push to squeeze in ahead of the Cardinals- Johnson fits
there as well.
8. Buffalo
Bills- Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
GM Buddy Nix
is famous for his love of southern players- just look at the Bills’ recent
draftees. With Andy Levitre gone, this does suggest that the Bills might want
to make a play for Chance Warmack, a former SEC guard. But the Bills have
bigger fish to fry, and that starts on defense. Lotulelei is simply too good to
pass on here.
9. New York
Jets- Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
I know I’m
probably higher on Jones than most, especially after the pre-draft workouts
revealed he has spinal stenosis. That’s a problem. If cleared (I assume he’s
good to go for most teams), he is still a Top-10 player in this draft. Rex Ryan
hasn’t had a pass rusher this good since he had Terrell Suggs in Baltimore. I’ll
say this for Jones- he reminds me an awful lot of Clay Matthews. At risk of
using too much hyperbole, I bet he’ll be better than Matthews by 2015.
10.
Tennessee Titans- Jonathan Cooper, OG, UNC
Andy Levitre
was a nice start to fixing their offensive line. Depending on scheme, the
Titans are in a great spot- they could take the slow, powerful Warmack or the
versatile and athletic Cooper. I’m guessing Cooper.
11. San
Diego Chargers- Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
The Chargers’
offensive line was…uh…offensive in 2012. Not the good kind of offensive, either.
With their atrocious leadership (Turner and A.J. Smith) given the boot, maybe
the new guys will actually try to fix that. Warmack or Cooper would be a great
start.
12. Miami
Dolphins- D.J. Fluker, RT, Alabama
They got
their QB last year. They found a wideout in Brian Hartline and added another
one in Mike Wallace. They settled their RB position on Lamar Miller and Daniel
Thomas. That leaves their offensive line in need of a major tuneup. With no
real values at CB available here, I say the new-look Dolphins take Fluker to
help fill some of the hole left by Jake Long’s departure.
13. New York
Jets- Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
The Jets’
two best offensive players are offensive linemen. The Jets’ quarterbacks are
Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow. Their offense was atrocious in 2012. These are
facts. With Darrelle Revis getting shipped south for this draft pick, expect
the Jets to try to inject some life into their offense. Austin will do that.
Just watch the LSU game from his junior year ago. He schooled Morris Claiborne
and Tyrann Mathieu all day long. I’m betting you’ve heard of them, right?
14. Carolina
Panthers, Sylvester Williams, DT, UNC
Carolina’s
offensive weaponry is a little underwhelming, but there isn’t a clear-cut
solution available here for them. In a draft this deep in defensive linemen,
especially in the middle, I expect the Panthers to grab their top-rated DT to
help shore up their defensive line. They’ve struggled there since Kris Jenkins
left.
15. New
Orleans Saints- Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
Assuming
Roger Goodell doesn’t take away this pick to be a dick to New Orleans again, I’d
expect Rob Ryan to do what many expect his brother to do at 9- grab Mingo from
nearby LSU.
16. St.
Louis Rams- Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
The Rams’ starting
safeties from last year are both gone. Vaccaro is a good fit as a value and a
need. Sometimes the draft is that easy. I see another Earl Thomas when I see
Vaccaro. For the all the knocks Texas football has taken the last few years,
Vaccaro was not the problem. He won’t be a problem in St. Louis either.
17.
Pittsburgh Steelers- Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
Best player
available, one of the smartest teams in the round. Plus, they have a need here.
Eifert in Pittsburgh is just too good a fit. He’ll block everyone, he’ll school
the Browns’ linebackers in coverage, he’ll probably nail Terrell Suggs a few
times on crackback blocks. Yep, he’ll be a good fit as a Steeler.
18. Dallas
Cowboys- Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
Everyone
except Anthony Spencer on Dallas’s defensive line is 30 or older. With a new
defensive scheme coming to Dallas, the Cowboys would be foolish to ignore this
need. Richardson had an impressive year at Mizzou considering how poorly the
Tigers played and that he made an idiot out of himself by proclaiming that the
SEC plays “old man football.” Expect more of that “old man football” in your
new digs, Sheldon.
19. New York
Giants- Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
This is such
a Tom Coughlin pick. The Giants simply wait out the draft and grab a low-risk,
solid player with gobs of talent. Funny how that always happens to teams like
the Giants and Steelers and Patriots, etc. No wonder they keep winning.
20. Chicago
Bears- Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
I wouldn’t
be surprised if the Bears went for Te’o here, but Ogletree is the better
player. He’s an especially fast LB and would play well next to Lance Briggs in
Chicago’s defensive framework. Sure, he has character issues. I don’t expect
them to be problems in Chicago.
21.
Cincinnati Bengals- Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State
Is this pick
a reach? Yes. They have a definite need at LB, but Te’o would not solve that
problem- Rey Maualuga is slow enough. With the Andre Smith contract situation
still up in the air, the Bengals would wise to take an OT here and “settle” for
bringing back Smith if the situation plays itself out that way.
22. St.
Louis Rams- Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
Ok, St.
Louis, you’ve spent the last three years of Sam Bradford’s career fixing your other
team needs. Now it’s time to do your franchise QB a solid and get some
top-notch offensive skill around him. Seriously, the best WR Bradford has
played with is either Jermaine Gresham (from their Oklahoma days) or Danny
Amendola, who A. couldn’t stay healthy and B. just left for New England via
free agency. You also just burned your first first round pick on another
defensive player. Do Sam a favor and get him some toys to play with.
23.
Minnesota Vikings- Manti Te’o, MLB, Notre Dame
Can anyone name
the Vikes’ current MLB? Me neither. This is a good spot for Te’o. The Vikings
love Notre Dame players, he fills a need and while he’s not the Ray Lewis clone
nutjobs like Skip Bayless thought he was, I can assure you after seeing him
destroy Oklahoma’s offense in person last fall, the guy is a perfect example of
a guy who is “football fast.” He looks like crap in shorts and a t-shirt- most
guys do. Football is not played in either. He doesn’t have the upside of an
Ogletree or the athleticism, but his instincts and intangibles are right up
there. He’ll start from day one.
24.
Indianapolis Colts- Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
The Colts
have a legitimate need on the offensive line. However, this is a deep draft
there and Rhodes fills another need at corner for them and is a great value
here. Plus, he can return kicks. Andrew Luck showed he can survive a year with
a subpar offensive line. He can wait another round or two for the Colts to
start resolving that issue.
25.
Minnesota Vikings- Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
After
filling their gaping hole at LB, the Vikings will in all likelihood turn their
attentions to the defensive backfield. In a division where they face Cutler,
Stafford and Rodgers a combined six times, that’s a smart move. Considering he
has family ties to the NFL, I trust him more than other corners. Having that
built-in support system is that important in my mind.
26. Green
Bay Packers- Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
Now, if the
Packers were smart, they’d grab Eddie Lacy and consider themselves very
fortunate. So why do I have the Packers taking Hunt here instead of Lacy? The
answer isn’t that the Packers aren’t smart- it’s just that their priorities are
wrong. The NFL has moved on to a pass-heavy game and the Packers are leading
the charge, but they have no balance. That’s why they’ve been kicked around by
the 49ers in their last two meetings. They’re not multiple enough to scare
teams by air and ground, a real issue in playoff football. Anyway, getting back
to the pick at hand, Ted Thompson adamantly refuses to take runners in the
first round. I love Hunt’s athleticism and upside- he can be a 3-4 DE version
of what Ansah, Jones, and Mingo are expected to be at their respective
positions. The Packers’ defense was at its best when Clay Matthews had Cullen
Jenkins helping out. Green Bay has looked too long for a complement to Matthews
at OLB- but their real issue is on the defensive line. Again, look to San
Francisco- who’s their other OLB after Aldon Smith? Do you know? I’m guessing
you probably don’t, and that’s not the issue here. The issue is that the 49ers’
2nd-best defensive player, Justin Smith is a pass-rushing, run-stopping 3-4 DE.
Hunt can be that kind of player- he has the size, length, and athleticism to be
that kind of player. If they don’t go for Lacy, Hunt should be the pick.
27. Houston
Texans- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
Andre
Johnson wants another WR. I want the Texans to add another WR. They’ve
basically never had two above-average wide receivers on their roster in franchise history. I’m not a Texans
fan, but I hated seeing their depth chart at WR for the last 10 years. It reads
like a bad fairy tale- I’m calling it “Andre and the Seven Dwarves.” The Texans
are sooooo close to breaking through, especially with the Ravens retooling
their roster, the Steelers seemingly down and the Patriots reaching the end of
their line as Brady edges. This draft might ultimately decide the course of the
AFC playoffs for the next five years, or however long it takes Andrew Luck to
reassert the Colts’ place at the top of the AFC South.
28. Denver
Broncos- Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State
I can’t
confirm or deny that Torrey Smith is still running through Mile High, but I can
assure you that the Broncos haven’t forgotten.
29. New England
Patriots- Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB, UConn
One of their
starting corners is sitting in jail. That’s a problem. Bill Belichick is not
stupid. He’ll fix this issue. Wreh-Wilson is not a sexy pick and the Patriots
are reportedly connected to about 39,000 wide receivers at this point, but they’ve
been atrocious at drafting wide receivers under Belichick. What, Chad Jackson,
Jeremy Ebert, Taylor Price, Brandon Tate, and Matt Slater don’t ring any bells
for you? Seriously, the best WR Belichick has drafted was Julian Edelman, and
he’s spent time at corner. Sounds like another feather in the cap for BW-W.
30. Atlanta
Falcons- Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
When it
comes to the first round TE’s, I like Ertz better. He’s been better-coached,
played in a pro-style scheme at Stanford and his versatility became evident
over the last two seasons. Two years ago, with Andrew Luck, he was more of a
blocker as his then-teammate Coby Fleener was Luck’s preferred target. When
Luck left, Ertz stepped up and showed that yes, he could be the Cardinal’s #1
option in the passing game. While about 20 pounds lighter, Ertz reminds me of
another Rob Gronkowski. While Eifert has the edge in speed, body control, and
receiving skills, Ertz has in blocking and physicality.
31. San
Francisco 49ers- Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
In spite of
all the praise I heaped on Justin Smith when I talked about him during my
Packers’ pick analysis, he is getting up there and injuries took a major toll
on him as the season wore on last year. Jones is big for a DE- that’s why he
played some DT and NT under Jim Mora, Jr. at UCLA last year. That kind of
versatility in college usually
32.
Baltimore Ravens- Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International
Let’s see-
Ed Reed is gone and so is Bernard Pollard. Cyprien is the best available
safety. He’s no Ed Reed (few are), but I don’t see how he can’t be a physical,
enforcer-type of safety like Pollard was. The other top safeties available are on
the smallish side. I’m guessing the Ravens will choose size, athleticism, and
upside over a proven pedigree with size issues.
Round 2
33.
Jacksonville Jaguars- Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
34. San
Francisco 49ers- D.J. Swearinger, S, South Carolina
35.
Philadelphia Eagles- Justin Pugh, OG, Syracuse
36. Detroit
Lions- Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State
37.
Cincinnati Bengals- Kevin Minter, MLB, LSU
38. Arizona
Cardinals- Kyle Long, OG, Oregon
39. New York
Jets- Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
40.
Tennessee Titans- Matt Elam, S, Florida
41. Buffalo
Bills- Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse
42. Miami
Dolphins- D.J. Hayden, DB, Houston
43. Tampa
Bay Buccaneers- John Jenkins, DT, Georgia
44. Carolina
Panthers- Eric Reid, S, LSU
45. San
Diego Chargers- Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky
46. St.
Louis Rams- Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
47. Dallas
Cowboys- Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
48.
Pittsburgh Steelers- Sio Moore, OLB, UConn
49. New York
Giants- Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
50. Chicago
Bears- Terron Armstead, OT, SE Louisiana
51.
Washington Redskins- Shamarko Thomas, S, Syracuse
52.
Minnesota Vikings- Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech
53.
Cincinnati Bengals- Giovani Bernard, RB, UNC
54. Miami
Dolphins- Alex Okafor, DE, Texas
55. Green
Bay Packers- Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin
56. Seattle
Seahawks- Arthur Brown, MLB, Kansas State
57. Houston
Texans- Khaseem Greene, OLB, Rutgers
58. Denver
Broncos- Kawann Short, DT, Purdue
59. New
England Patriots- Robert Woods, WR, USC
60. Atlanta
Falcons- Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU
61. San
Francisco 49ers- Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati
62.
Baltimore Ravens- Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
Round 3
63. Kansas
City Chiefs- Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall
64.
Jacksonville Jaguars- Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
65. Detroit
Lions- Stedman Bailey, WR, West Virginia
66. Oakland
Raiders- E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida State
67.
Philadelphia Eagles- Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State
68.
Cleveland Browns- Mike Glennon, QB, NC State
69. Arizona
Cardinals- Matt Barkley, QB, USC
70.
Tennessee Titans- Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M
71. Buffalo
Bills- Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU
72. New York
Jets- Brian Winters, OG, Kent State
73. Tampa
Bay Buccaneers- Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern State
74. San
Francisco 49ers- Philip Thomas, S, Fresno State
75. New Orleans
Saints- Darius Slay, CB, Mississippi State
76. San
Diego Chargers- Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon State
77. Miami Dolphins-
Brandon Jenkins, DE, Florida State
78. St.
Louis Rams- Le’veon Bell, RB, Michigan State
79.
Pittsburgh Steelers- Kiko Alonso, MLB, Oregon
80. Dallas
Cowboys- Dallas Thomas, OG, Tennessee
81. New York
Giants- Kevin Reddick, MLB, UNC
82. Miami
Dolphins- William Gholston, DE, Michigan State
83.
Minnesota Vikings- Bennie Logan, DT, LSU
84.
Cincinnati Bengals- David Bakhtiari, OT, Colorado
85.
Washington Redskins- B.w. Webb, CB, William & Mary
86. Indianapolis Colts- Barrett Jones, C, Alabama
87. Seattle
Seahawks- Da’rick Rogers, WR, Tennessee Tech
88. Green
Bay Packers- Knile Davis, RB, Arkansas
89. Houston
Texans- Jon Bostic, MLB, Florida
90. Denver
Broncos- Andre Ellington, RB, Clemson
91. New
England Patriots- Jordan Reed, TE, Florida
92. Atlanta
Falcons- John Simon, DE, Ohio State
93. San
Francisco 49ers- Josh Boyce, WR, TCU
94.
Baltimore Ravens- Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Miss
95. Houston
Texans- Logan Ryan, CB, Rutgers
96. Kansas
City Chiefs- Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
97. Tennessee
Titans- Ryan Swope, WR, Texas A&M
