It's been quite some time since I tried my hand at this. Too long, in fact. So I sat down this afternoon with a glass of a tea, my Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook, some good music, and dug into some heavy-duty college basketball numbers. By no means am I a number-crunching Mensa like Joe Lunardi or Jerry Palm, but I like to tinker with stuff like this.
All that being said, here is my take on the seeding of the upcoming 2013 Men's basketball tournament. Enjoy.
1: Indiana, Florida, Miami, Duke
2: Kansas, Michigan State, Michigan, Syracuse
3: New Mexico, Arizona, Gonzaga, Louisville
4: Kansas State, Georgetown, Marquette, Butler
5: Wisconsin, Colorado State, Ohio State, Notre Dame
6: Oregon, Pittsburgh, Memphis, San Diego State
7: Oklahoma State, UNLV, Cincinnati, VCU
8: NC State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Minnesota
9: Colorado, UCLA, St. Louis, Wichita State
10: Ole Miss, Boise State, Creighton, Maryland
11: Charlotte, Illinois, La Salle, Temple
12: Middle Tennessee State, Belmont, Villanova, Kentucky, UNC, St. Mary's
13: Akron, South Dakota State, Bucknell, Louisiana Tech
14: Davidson, Long Beach State, Valparaiso, Stony Brook
15: Niagara, Montana, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
16: Norfolk State, Northeastern, Southern, High Point, Mercer, Robert Morris
Last Four In: La Salle, Minnesota, Villanova, Charlotte
First Four Out: Baylor, Indiana State, Wyoming, Arizona State
N.B. The seeds are written in random order. Really.
A few thoughts:
- A lot of people expect a ton of upsets this. I don't buy it. This is by no means a world-beating group of Top 4 seeds like we had in 2007 or even last year, but none of the teams on the top three seed line would surprise me if they got to the Final Four.
- My favorite sleeper this year is Akron. I don't have a nice mathematical reason or much to go by as the "eye test" goes. Call it a hunch. The MAC has produced its fair share of bracket busters in the past.
- Kansas at a 2 may surprise some. Even with their recent 3-game slide still in the back of most folks' minds, I still believe in KU as a legitimate championship-quality team. They will need better PG play from Elijah Johnson for that to happen, of course.
- Duke is a strange team. When they had PF Ryan Kelly, they were a slam-dunk favorite. Without him, they've been playing like more of a 3- or 4-seed team. I've heard from multiple media reports that Duke will get Kelly back by the end of February. That gives him a couple of regular season games and the ACC tournament to get back into the flow of playing basketball regularly again. Will those five games return Duke to its pre-injury form? Or will they struggle acclimating Kelly's return, much like they did when Kyrie Irving returned in 2011 from his toe injury? Given that Kelly is a PF and not a PG, I think Duke will find it easier re-learning how to play with Kelly than they did re-learning how to play with Irving. The other benefit is that Kelly's injury and potential return would give Duke some much-needed depth, as the Blue Devils have had to give a couple of freshmen, Amile Jefferson and Alex Murphy, more PT than I'm sure Mike Krzyzewski planned on back in October.
- I really don't understand why Minnesota is considered a lock for the tourney. They have a nice RPI and SOS, but other than that, they only have a smattering of decent wins. To cap it all off, they've played like garbage for the majority of February.
- Given how well Miami is playing, it's hard to believe that they lost to Florida Gulf Coast. (Even though they really did.)
- Pro tip: if UCLA plays a grind-it-out, smashmouth basketball team, they're screwed. As a 9-seed in my predictions, they would play one of NC State, Missouri, Oklahoma, or Minnesota. If that's the case, the Bruins should pray they get to play Missouri. They already beat them once and the other three teams are far more physical and play more deliberate styles of basketball, something UCLA has proven this year they hate playing against. IF (and it's a big one) they get past their first-round game, only Florida would try to muck it up with UCLA. The other three #1 seeds would have a little harder time dealing with UCLA's athletes. I'd still pick every #1 seed to beat UCLA, but things could get dicey for them if UCLA's offense starts clicking.
- Don't bet against Rick Pitino. I do this every year. I still don't know why. I feel so stupid right now. This Louisville team is practically built for March. Stingy defense, solid guards, and veteran savvy. What more could a Pitino-coached squad want? This Cardinals team has Final Four written all over them.
