Part 3: Changeups

In part three of my series on the main genres of pitch types and their individual "species" therein, we will discuss the changeup. 

This pitch is the simplest one to explain after fastballs and follows logically when one thinks about how baseball is played at its most simple levels

I imagine that when baseball was first played, most of the pitchers simply tried to throw the ball by the batter. Naturally, this works great if you can throw hard and actually get it by a hitter. If you can't generate that kind of velocity, you needed to be able to trick your opponent. That's where the changeup comes in.

The changeup is a pitch thrown with the same kind of delivery as a fastball with at a reduced rate of speed and downward break (occasionally with a bit of lateral movement). The hitter, reading the pitch out of the pitcher's hand, will see fastball and swing accordingly. Unfortunately for him, the pitch is often late to the swing and messes up the timing, which is crucial. When done well, it can create moments like these:

Lance McCullers, Houston Astros

Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

The Strasburg example is especially good- you can clearly see the three-fingered grip on top of the ball. This is the most common grip for a changeup in baseball, but there is a second kind that breaks down and away, called the circle change. It's gripped similarly to the standard changeups above, but the pitcher uses his index finger and thumb to create a small circle (like the kind when you are making an "a-ok" sign). This imparts a different kind of movement.

Here is a dual-layered gif of the Seattle Mariners' all-world pitching stud, Felix Hernandez throwing his fastball (the yellow dot) and circle change (the green dot) at the same time. Though it might seem incredible, these pitches are thrown with the exact same amount of arm speed. Also note how the ball is released from the exact same point. His fastball was clocked at 94 MPH. The changeup was clocked in the high-80's. It might not seem like much, but in the fractions of a second a hitter has to make up his mind on the "swing or not?" debate, it's huge. And in Hernandez's case, usually lethal to opposing batters.

Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals

The last, most curious pitch of all is the knuckleball. This pitch is unique in that it is thrown with no spin at all. Every other pitch I've talked about at length is thrown with spin- this is what creates break. In the knuckleball's case, this lack of spin gives the pitch an erratic, unpredictable movement.

To throw a pitch with no spin, the pitcher grips the ball with his knuckles (if his hands are small) or with the fingernails digging into it, using the thumb for support. The results are usually odd and oftentimes amusing. This pitch is very uncommon in the majors because it is hard to control, hard for catchers to receive, and hard for umpires to call balls and strikes on. The most popular practitioner of the knuckleball today is R.A. Dickey of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Note how the ball just seems to "float" to the plate and tumbles, rather than spins. I think it looks like a slow-motion video of heavenly bodies floating in zero gravity

Another one for good measure.

That's it. I could have perhaps brought up a couple of other pitches like the screwball or forkball but those pitches are so rarely seen nowadays that finding a gif would be nigh impossible.

Thanks for reading!

The Uninitiated's Guide to Pitches, Part 2: Breaking Balls

If you missed part 1, head over there first
Link to Part One

As promised, here's part two of my series on pitch types in baseball, with examples!

We just covered the 5 major types of fastballs- the four-seamer, two-seamer, sinker, cutter, and splitter. These pitches are usually thrown on the Major League level from 85 mph (at the absolute slowest) to 100 MPH, depending on the pitcher's style, ability, and raw talent.

Now, being able to throw 100 is great and all, but like I said in Part 1, these guys are facing pro hitters. Aroldis Chapman- owner of the league's fastest fastball, gave up a hit to the Nationals' young superstar, Bryce Harper, on a 102 MPH fastball this year. The bottom line is simple: pitchers cannot live on gas alone. They must have complimentary pitches.

So, what's the best ways to counter a hard, straight fastball? Naturally, you add break and take speed off to screw up a hitter's timing. That's where breaking balls come in.

A lot of announcers have a lot of different terms for the different kinds of breaking balls you'll see in a game, but in the interest of keeping it simple, I'm going to categorize them as a curveball or a slider.

With the exception of the fastball, the curveball is probably the most all-encompassing term in pitching for a type of pitch rather than a specific pitch. Just as an announcer might use the term fastball to refer to a cutter or a sinker or a four-seamer, he might use "curveball" to refer to a 12-6 curveball, a sweeping curveball, or any other type of pitch with breaking movement.

Curveballs have a variety of trajectories and breaks among pitchers. This is mostly influenced by the arm slot (the angle the pitcher's arm releases the ball from, relative to the ground) and release point of a given pitcher, which is in turn governed by how comfortable the pitcher is throwing the curveball. Additionally, any of these pitches with horizontal break will only move away from the pitcher's throwing arm. So, if a righthander throws it, it will break to his left. If a lefty throws it, it will break to his right. This goes for all breaking balls, except for one.

The most famous kind is the 12-6 curveball. This pitch is so named for its break. Imagine looking at a clock- the 12 is directly above the 6 and this pitch breaks by starting in a "12" position and drops all the way to the 6. It's a straight drop down, in short. 

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

You can see the break quite clearly in this clip. It should follow as no surprise that the man throwing it is considered the best in the sport currently. 

Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

That's the classic 12-6 curveball. Straight drop, right through the strike zone, almost no horizontal break. Easy enough, right?

Other curveballs can feature plenty of horizontal break.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

See how Hernandez's pitch drops and moves in to the hitter? Using the clock analogy from before, this looks like a 2-7 curveball. The term sweeping curveball is used to describe this one most commonly and is probably the best term if you want to clearly distinguish that a curve has a lot of lateral movement. 

Steven Matz, New York Mets

Curveballs fall across the spectrum as it relates to velocity, drop and side-to-side movement. Each one is unique to the pitcher that throws it. Here a few more for your interest.

There is a curious kind of curveball, called a knuckle curve, thrown when a pitcher grips the pitch with one of his fingers bent.

Dellin Betances, New York Yankees

Anthony Ranaudo, Texas Rangers

The next major kind of breaking pitch is the slider. Most professionals can throw both a slider and a curveball but almost all of them have a specific preference. Loosely defined a slider is a breaking pitch that tails laterally away from the pitcher (to the left if you throw righthanded, vice versa for lefties) but with more speed than a curveball.

Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

Adam Ottavino, Colorado Rockies

Last, but most assuredly not least is a kind of hybrid pitch, called a slurve. As you could guess from its name, the slurve is the name of a pitch that a pitcher throws like a curveball, but with a slider's grip. The result is, predictably, a pitch that is one part curveball, one part slider. And it's almost impossible to identify unless you are facing it and/or have been expressly told by the pitcher that he throws a sluve and not simply a kind of sweeping curveball (see above).

Dellin Betances, New York Yankees

Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

That's it for breaking pitches!

Up next: changeups and other miscellaneous pitches!

The Uninitiated's Guide to Pitches, Part 1: Fastballs

So you're new to baseball- the world's simplest, hardest sport to master. While this may bother some who play another sport, I still contend hitting a round ball with a round bat is the hardest task in sports. The science and biomechanics of it- the amount of time and hand-eye coordination required to identify a pitch, decide where it will be, and ultimately choose to swing or not swing at it is one of the most difficult tasks in sport, right up there with men's tennis at the highest levels or playing goalie in the NHL.

In light of the difficulty faced by those who play the sport, it should come as no shock to the reader that the game itself is so full of nuances, intricacies, "unwritten rules," and other assorted quirks that it would appear to be almost too daunting to learn for a novice. This could not be farther from the truth. In spite of its difficulty and trickiness, baseball is at its core a children's game, played at its highest level by some of the world's finest athletes.

Most people know the rules of baseball in some form or another- maybe they gleaned it from many visits to a local ballpark with their dad (or mom). Maybe they played little league, high school, or fastpitch softball as they grew up. Maybe they figured it out from playing kickball or slowpitch softball in gym class. Maybe they learned it from watching on TV or playing a video game simulation of it. Either way and for all intents and purposes that this post will serve, the author assumes you know the rules and have a grasp of the basics of the sport. (Nine innings, three strikes you're out, four balls you walk, three outs per inning- the fundamentals.)

As intimated above, baseball can be a tricky, complex sport. And the trickiest, cleverest guys on the field, besides the catchers, are the guys on the mound- the pitcher. And they need to be. It is their job to make grown men fail at any even higher rate than they do typically. Consider: the all-time leader in on-base percentage (a stat measuring how often a hitter reaches base safely), Ted Williams, got on base an average of 48 times out of 100 throughout his illustrious, Hall of Fame-worthy career. And he's considered almost universally "the greatest hitter who ever lived." All that despite failing 52% of the time. And there are many more examples similar to Williams who were considered menaces to opposing pitchers, yet still failed more often compared to him!

The bottom line: all of these hitters are pros and they are facing the very best the world has to offer. What's a pitcher to do? He better have some good weapons to work with if he's going to attack these guys. Failure to do so will result in you having to find a new job. Luckily, baseball's 150-year history has seen plenty of pioneers who, as pitchers, developed, learned, and created a plethora of different pitchers as a way to bamboozle and befuddle these hitting machines.

To start off, let's agree on some vocabulary when it comes to pitching and pitch types ("pitches").

1. The term "break" refers to how much a pitch moves. This could be any pitch that has movement.

2. This movement is most important in the strike zone. Plenty of pitches that end up as home runs or hits moved either very fast or from one side to the other (as through across an x- or y-axis). Having late break or lots of it through the zone is what generates outs, which is what the pitcher wants.

I group pitches into 3 categories: fastballs, offspeed pitches (sometimes called breaking pitches or breaking balls, but this is inaccurate), and miscellaneous pitches- the ones you can't classify either way.

There are 4 distinct pitch types under the genre, if you will, of "fastball." The most common is easily the standard four-seam fastball, so named for its grip. This pitch is all about speed and relies very little on lateral movement. It can be thrown to overpower a hitter with pure speed or when a pitcher needs a strike, since it moves straight and is the easiest pitch to aim. The hardest one thrown to date in a MLB game was thrown in San Diego by current Reds relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman. It was clocked in at 105 MPH. In select cases when it's thrown well, this pitch can rise as it approaches the hitter.

Here are some examples of the 4-seam fastball doing its evil work.

Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
Note the rising action as it reaches the hitter.

Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals

The next variant of fastball is the two-seam fastball. It's gripped differently than a 4-seamer (hence the name), and this pitch breaks towards to the throwing arm of the pitcher who throws it. In short, if a righthander throws it, it will break to the pitcher's right. Same thing for lefties- it will break to the left.
Some pitchers throw a variant of this pitch called a sinker, which breaks away and down at the same time with good amount of speed to it, giving the impression that it is sinking through the strike zone. Many baseball announcers, fans, and analysts will use the term interchangeably. For purposes of learning, it is best to remember that a two-seam fastball has more horizontal break (sometimes called "cutting" or "break") with downward movement (sink), but a sinker has more downward motion. If that doesn't make sense, I am sure these gifs will help. The sinker's primary function to is get the hitter to hit the ball on to the ground in an attempt to avoid fly balls. That is why having downward motion is so important- it creates momentum that a round bat can't change without hitting the pitch from below the baseball to create lift. Pitchers who throw sinkers that don't sink enough or start them too high in the zone usually don't last in the majors and give up tons of home runs and extra base hits.

Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

And here's a sinker:

Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles

Don't worry if they look similar. A lot of pitchers have perfected the 2-seam fastball to make it move laterally with a lot of sink on it. In the latter, note that the pitch a lot of drop when it gets to the plate, more so than Stroman's pitch.



Another very common, very popular fastball in today's game is the cut fastball or the "cutter."
This pitch is gripped like a 4-seam fastball but is altered by slightly rotating the thumb inwards and the two top fingers to the outside to create more spin. This makes the pitch move away from the pitchers' handedness. If he's a righty, this pitch breaks to the left. If he's a lefty, it breaks to the right. It is sometimes confused for a slider (more on those later) seeing as both pitches are thrown from similar arm angles and move in similar directions. A slider is usually slower and has more break, which is how I differentiate them.

Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs (seen here with the Boston Red Sox)

Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates

The last variant of the fastball the average baseball fan should know is the split-finger fastball, or the splitter. This pitch is thrown when the pitcher grips the ball between their index and middle fingers. In truth, this pitch is more offspeed than it is "fastball" but the name includes the term 'fastball' so I am including it here to avoid confusion. This pitch is closely related to the changeup and operates very similarly. When thrown properly, it will look like a fastball to the hitter, but "tumble" or drop when it reaches the plate, causing a lot of moments like this for hitters:

Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees

Hishashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners

Due to resolution issues, I am going to break this into several parts.

Up next, breaking balls!

A College Football Summer Wishlist

1. CAN WE PLEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE have Miami back?
This item needs no further elaboration...or does it? I miss the late 1990's and early 2000's of football for a plethora of reasons and Miami being an almighty power in CFB and as a NFL factory is one of them. Miami-Florida State used to be required watching. Now, with Jimbo Fisher and Al Golden (two squares if I ever saw one) patrolling the sidelines instead of real personalities like Bobby Bowden and Howard Schnellenberger/Jimmy Johnson/Dennis Erickson/Butch Davis/Larry Coker, the rivarly has lost a lot of pizzazz. Maybe it's a product of the internet age, but there used to be real, authentic hatred between these teams that made this game must-watch TV.

 

Need I say anymore?

 

Nota Bene: I'd also add Tennessee, Nebraska, and Washington to this list- on the provision that Tennessee never wears a hideous jersey like they have since Philip Fulmer left. That orange was already an eyesore to begin with. Seriously, no more checkerboard patterns, PLEASE!

 

 

2. An end to horrible alternate uniforms.

I'm looking at you, Michigan. And you too, Maryland. I could go on, as there are plenty of examples of terrible ideas in college uniforms. I didn't even link to Indiana's chrome candy cane helmets. (I swear I didn't make that up.) This also includes teams wearing black jerseys who don't feature black as a school color. Nebraska is the lone exception, thanks to their "Blackshirts" tradition. Florida State? You aren't so lucky. You already had an elite jersey set. Why fix what isn't broken?

 

Florida State's 2014 alternate unis will be black.

For the love of all that is holy and sacred in college football, please limit yourselves to one or two alternates. Miami having an orange or green home jersey is fine. UGA doing black or red is also acceptable. NC State wearing black is not. UNC wearing navy blue is not. Take a hint from the big boys- Ohio State, Okahoma, Alabama, Penn State, and USC are among an elite few teams in terms of on-field success and jersey stability. They've never changed their jerseys too much and for good reason. Sometimes less is more. I doubt recruits care about your 64, 356 uniform combinations that much.

 

3. Speaking of uniforms, let's have a retro jersey week (if you have them)

Sorry Alabama. Oregon of all teams actually did this and it was AMAZING.

 




THOSE HELMETS!



 

 

 4. Restore old rivalries.

Miami vs. Florida (you scared, Florida? #SEC #SEC #SEC)

Penn State vs. Pittsburgh

Texas vs. Arkansas (and A&M for that matter- figure it out, ladies)

West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech (criminally underrated in my opinion)

Oklahoma-Nebraska

 

I'd also like to add that I'd love to see teams add a late season non-conference game. This could replace a bad FCS team that the SEC teams like to schedule in their second-to-last games of the season. I still don't know why they do that and complain when people make fun of their scheduling. Some teams already do this for rivalry week at the end of the year (Georgia Tech vs. Georgia as an example), but imagine if Alabama took a trip to Maryland for a game with Navy instead of playing a winless FCS team like Western Carolina (which they actually did a few years ago). The late-season drama and intrigue would be off-the-charts insane.

 

 

5. Bring back the video game, but with a ton of improvements:

• Add all D-I teams with real stadiums and logos and jerseys, including FCS, DII, and DIII
• Allow for a more customizable setup to allow players to play a full DII and DIII season, complete with realistic postseasons. I.E. if you play a full season with Montana, you'd be eligible for the FCS playoffs. Same goes for a DII school like Saginaw Valley or a DIII school like Mount Union.
• Streamline the teambuilder process online so team customization would be made simpler for those who would edit the rosters and team designs as needed.
• In recruiting, make JUCOs a searchable trait so I don't have to flip through 2500+ different players.
• Bring back the academic probation and NCAA penalties that older installments had in dynasty mode. College kids screw up. Their coaches do too, and the NCAA punishes them (I'm not talking about Bobby Petrino or Joe Paterno stuff here, or even Pete Carroll for that matter). Still a common occurence today. Yeah, I know it got cut because the NCAA didn't like that in a game with its logo on it, but it added a tricky element to dynasty modes- bench your star RB because he skipped class or say, "screw it" and hope you don't get caught....

 

6. Restore the old conference alignments.

 

I know this will never happen because the money's too good and the playoffs guarantee that you need a good SOS to make the final cut (or so they say...). As a fan, it saddens me to see Louisville in the ACC instead of C-USA, Maryland in the Big Ten instead of the ACC, and the total dissolution of the Southwest, WAC, and Big East football conferences. The pursuit of the almighty dollar is going to kill the NCAA in the O'Bannon case and it's done a lot of damage to the sport's integrity from an alignment standpoint as well. Restoring the old conferences would restore older rivalries and breathe new life into current ones. For example, Oklahoma (Big 8/XII) would now play a non-conference game in October vs. Texas (Southwest) in the Cotton Bowl. West Virginia would play Virginia Tech every year as Big East rivals. Miami would go back to being an independent, play Notre Dame, FSU, and a couple of strong SEC teams each year, plus a few jaunts north to play teams like Boston College, Penn State, Ohio State, and BYU each year.

 

That pretty much covers all of my gripes. Sorry for over-emphasizing Miami- I recently watched that old ESPN: 30 for 30 about Miami and found myself in a wistful mood about the school. Probably doesn't hurt that I also recently watched their old "Hurricane game" vs. UCLA from 1998 when Edgerrin James and Najeh Davenport had approximately 28,738 rushing yards after contact and still barely beat the #2 UCLA Bruins in the Orange Bowl.

 

2013 NFL 3-Round Mock Draft

1. Kansas City Chiefs- Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

After the Chiefs acquired Alex Smith from the 49ers in one of the hands-down worst moves of the early NFL offseason (it cost too much and the Chiefs don't have a team to supplement Smith's talents like the 49ers do), they signaled to the rest of the NFL that this will the first NFL draft since 2008 to see a non-QB taken first overall. That year, LT Jake Long went first and I expect the Chiefs will take a LT here to begin rebuilding their offense. They could also go for a defensive player if their management falls in love with one, like Dee Milliner. Even so, Joeckel is the best LT in the draft. He reminds me of Tony Boselli, who had a great, if all too brief career for the Jaguars in the 1990’s. Eric Fisher might be trendier after his combine performance, but Joeckel is superior in almost every way- he had top-end coaching at every level of his amateur career and was the best non-Manziel offensive player in the SEC last year. He's not quite as powerful in the running game, but with the Chiefs bringing back Branden Albert to be their RT, there's less of a need for another mauling offensive tackle here.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars- Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon

Gus Bradley built his Seattle defenses under Pete Carroll upon a foundation of lethal pass rushing. I expect this trend will continue in northern Florida. Jordan is one of the most athletically gifted linemen to enter the NFL in years.

3. Oakland Raiders- Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

Let’s see- the Raiders’ current defensive depth chart shows Christo Bilukidi and Richard Seymour as the starting tackles for the Raiders. That’s a pretty gaping hole to have in your defense. At least half a dozen upper-tier BCS teams are better off at DT than the Raiders are.

4. Philadelphia Eagles- Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

Nnamdi Asomugha is gone. So is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Chip Kelly may be best known for his progressive style of offense and practices, but he’s not oblivious to defense. In a division with Eli Manning, Tony Romo, and RG3, having a dependable secondary is a must.

5. Detroit Lions- Eric Fisher, LT, Central Michigan

My least favorite part of doing mock drafts is trying to figure out how teams do their draft boards and melding this with how other experts view the board. Some, notably Mike Mayock, rate Fisher over Joeckel. The Lions have a need on the offensive line after Gosder Cherilus bailed on the Motor City. Based on Jim Schwartz’s track record during his time in Detroit, I’m guessing the Lions are a “best player available” lean when it comes to drafting prospects. Unless they have a guy like Ansah, Mingo, or another player rated more highly than Fisher, my guess is they take the former Chippewa.  

6. Cleveland Browns- Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

Yeah, I know they signed Paul Kruger. It doesn’t matter. With Milliner off the board, this is the next-best way to fix the Browns’ secondary- by creating a vicious pass rush bookended by their top FA and top draft choice. I love Ansah’s upside more than any other player in this draft’s. He’s following a path that Marcel Dareus and Jason Pierre-Paul did- born overseas, started football later in life, drafted high in the NFL draft. I like that track record.

7. Arizona Cardinals- Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

It’s no secret that Arizona’s worst deficiencies in 2012 were at quarterback and offensive line. With Carson Palmer now playing football in the desert, the QB position has been stabilized for the time being. That leaves the Cardinals to fill their offensive line needs with this pick. Lane Johnson may not be on Joeckel or Fisher’s level, but he is a highly athletic specimen with great size. There’s no other way to describe Johnson, a former quarterback and defensive end in the amateur ranks. He’s raw as a result, but the potential is there. Expect the Chargers to make a huge push to squeeze in ahead of the Cardinals- Johnson fits there as well.  

8. Buffalo Bills- Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

GM Buddy Nix is famous for his love of southern players- just look at the Bills’ recent draftees. With Andy Levitre gone, this does suggest that the Bills might want to make a play for Chance Warmack, a former SEC guard. But the Bills have bigger fish to fry, and that starts on defense. Lotulelei is simply too good to pass on here.

9. New York Jets- Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

I know I’m probably higher on Jones than most, especially after the pre-draft workouts revealed he has spinal stenosis. That’s a problem. If cleared (I assume he’s good to go for most teams), he is still a Top-10 player in this draft. Rex Ryan hasn’t had a pass rusher this good since he had Terrell Suggs in Baltimore. I’ll say this for Jones- he reminds me an awful lot of Clay Matthews. At risk of using too much hyperbole, I bet he’ll be better than Matthews by 2015.

10. Tennessee Titans- Jonathan Cooper, OG, UNC

Andy Levitre was a nice start to fixing their offensive line. Depending on scheme, the Titans are in a great spot- they could take the slow, powerful Warmack or the versatile and athletic Cooper. I’m guessing Cooper.

11. San Diego Chargers- Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama

The Chargers’ offensive line was…uh…offensive in 2012. Not the good kind of offensive, either. With their atrocious leadership (Turner and A.J. Smith) given the boot, maybe the new guys will actually try to fix that. Warmack or Cooper would be a great start.  

12. Miami Dolphins- D.J. Fluker, RT, Alabama

They got their QB last year. They found a wideout in Brian Hartline and added another one in Mike Wallace. They settled their RB position on Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas. That leaves their offensive line in need of a major tuneup. With no real values at CB available here, I say the new-look Dolphins take Fluker to help fill some of the hole left by Jake Long’s departure.

13. New York Jets- Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

The Jets’ two best offensive players are offensive linemen. The Jets’ quarterbacks are Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow. Their offense was atrocious in 2012. These are facts. With Darrelle Revis getting shipped south for this draft pick, expect the Jets to try to inject some life into their offense. Austin will do that. Just watch the LSU game from his junior year ago. He schooled Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu all day long. I’m betting you’ve heard of them, right?

14. Carolina Panthers, Sylvester Williams, DT, UNC

Carolina’s offensive weaponry is a little underwhelming, but there isn’t a clear-cut solution available here for them. In a draft this deep in defensive linemen, especially in the middle, I expect the Panthers to grab their top-rated DT to help shore up their defensive line. They’ve struggled there since Kris Jenkins left.

15. New Orleans Saints- Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU

Assuming Roger Goodell doesn’t take away this pick to be a dick to New Orleans again, I’d expect Rob Ryan to do what many expect his brother to do at 9- grab Mingo from nearby LSU.

16. St. Louis Rams- Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

The Rams’ starting safeties from last year are both gone. Vaccaro is a good fit as a value and a need. Sometimes the draft is that easy. I see another Earl Thomas when I see Vaccaro. For the all the knocks Texas football has taken the last few years, Vaccaro was not the problem. He won’t be a problem in St. Louis either.  

17. Pittsburgh Steelers- Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

Best player available, one of the smartest teams in the round. Plus, they have a need here. Eifert in Pittsburgh is just too good a fit. He’ll block everyone, he’ll school the Browns’ linebackers in coverage, he’ll probably nail Terrell Suggs a few times on crackback blocks. Yep, he’ll be a good fit as a Steeler.

18. Dallas Cowboys- Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

Everyone except Anthony Spencer on Dallas’s defensive line is 30 or older. With a new defensive scheme coming to Dallas, the Cowboys would be foolish to ignore this need. Richardson had an impressive year at Mizzou considering how poorly the Tigers played and that he made an idiot out of himself by proclaiming that the SEC plays “old man football.” Expect more of that “old man football” in your new digs, Sheldon.  

19. New York Giants- Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

This is such a Tom Coughlin pick. The Giants simply wait out the draft and grab a low-risk, solid player with gobs of talent. Funny how that always happens to teams like the Giants and Steelers and Patriots, etc. No wonder they keep winning.

20. Chicago Bears- Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears went for Te’o here, but Ogletree is the better player. He’s an especially fast LB and would play well next to Lance Briggs in Chicago’s defensive framework. Sure, he has character issues. I don’t expect them to be problems in Chicago.

21. Cincinnati Bengals- Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State

Is this pick a reach? Yes. They have a definite need at LB, but Te’o would not solve that problem- Rey Maualuga is slow enough. With the Andre Smith contract situation still up in the air, the Bengals would wise to take an OT here and “settle” for bringing back Smith if the situation plays itself out that way.

22. St. Louis Rams- Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

Ok, St. Louis, you’ve spent the last three years of Sam Bradford’s career fixing your other team needs. Now it’s time to do your franchise QB a solid and get some top-notch offensive skill around him. Seriously, the best WR Bradford has played with is either Jermaine Gresham (from their Oklahoma days) or Danny Amendola, who A. couldn’t stay healthy and B. just left for New England via free agency. You also just burned your first first round pick on another defensive player. Do Sam a favor and get him some toys to play with.

23. Minnesota Vikings- Manti Te’o, MLB, Notre Dame

Can anyone name the Vikes’ current MLB? Me neither. This is a good spot for Te’o. The Vikings love Notre Dame players, he fills a need and while he’s not the Ray Lewis clone nutjobs like Skip Bayless thought he was, I can assure you after seeing him destroy Oklahoma’s offense in person last fall, the guy is a perfect example of a guy who is “football fast.” He looks like crap in shorts and a t-shirt- most guys do. Football is not played in either. He doesn’t have the upside of an Ogletree or the athleticism, but his instincts and intangibles are right up there. He’ll start from day one.

24. Indianapolis Colts- Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

The Colts have a legitimate need on the offensive line. However, this is a deep draft there and Rhodes fills another need at corner for them and is a great value here. Plus, he can return kicks. Andrew Luck showed he can survive a year with a subpar offensive line. He can wait another round or two for the Colts to start resolving that issue.

25. Minnesota Vikings- Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

After filling their gaping hole at LB, the Vikings will in all likelihood turn their attentions to the defensive backfield. In a division where they face Cutler, Stafford and Rodgers a combined six times, that’s a smart move. Considering he has family ties to the NFL, I trust him more than other corners. Having that built-in support system is that important in my mind.  

26. Green Bay Packers- Margus Hunt, DE, SMU

Now, if the Packers were smart, they’d grab Eddie Lacy and consider themselves very fortunate. So why do I have the Packers taking Hunt here instead of Lacy? The answer isn’t that the Packers aren’t smart- it’s just that their priorities are wrong. The NFL has moved on to a pass-heavy game and the Packers are leading the charge, but they have no balance. That’s why they’ve been kicked around by the 49ers in their last two meetings. They’re not multiple enough to scare teams by air and ground, a real issue in playoff football. Anyway, getting back to the pick at hand, Ted Thompson adamantly refuses to take runners in the first round. I love Hunt’s athleticism and upside- he can be a 3-4 DE version of what Ansah, Jones, and Mingo are expected to be at their respective positions. The Packers’ defense was at its best when Clay Matthews had Cullen Jenkins helping out. Green Bay has looked too long for a complement to Matthews at OLB- but their real issue is on the defensive line. Again, look to San Francisco- who’s their other OLB after Aldon Smith? Do you know? I’m guessing you probably don’t, and that’s not the issue here. The issue is that the 49ers’ 2nd-best defensive player, Justin Smith is a pass-rushing, run-stopping 3-4 DE. Hunt can be that kind of player- he has the size, length, and athleticism to be that kind of player. If they don’t go for Lacy, Hunt should be the pick.

27. Houston Texans- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson

Andre Johnson wants another WR. I want the Texans to add another WR. They’ve basically never had two above-average wide receivers on their roster in franchise history. I’m not a Texans fan, but I hated seeing their depth chart at WR for the last 10 years. It reads like a bad fairy tale- I’m calling it “Andre and the Seven Dwarves.” The Texans are sooooo close to breaking through, especially with the Ravens retooling their roster, the Steelers seemingly down and the Patriots reaching the end of their line as Brady edges. This draft might ultimately decide the course of the AFC playoffs for the next five years, or however long it takes Andrew Luck to reassert the Colts’ place at the top of the AFC South.

28. Denver Broncos- Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State

I can’t confirm or deny that Torrey Smith is still running through Mile High, but I can assure you that the Broncos haven’t forgotten.

29. New England Patriots- Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB, UConn

One of their starting corners is sitting in jail. That’s a problem. Bill Belichick is not stupid. He’ll fix this issue. Wreh-Wilson is not a sexy pick and the Patriots are reportedly connected to about 39,000 wide receivers at this point, but they’ve been atrocious at drafting wide receivers under Belichick. What, Chad Jackson, Jeremy Ebert, Taylor Price, Brandon Tate, and Matt Slater don’t ring any bells for you? Seriously, the best WR Belichick has drafted was Julian Edelman, and he’s spent time at corner. Sounds like another feather in the cap for BW-W.

30. Atlanta Falcons- Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford

When it comes to the first round TE’s, I like Ertz better. He’s been better-coached, played in a pro-style scheme at Stanford and his versatility became evident over the last two seasons. Two years ago, with Andrew Luck, he was more of a blocker as his then-teammate Coby Fleener was Luck’s preferred target. When Luck left, Ertz stepped up and showed that yes, he could be the Cardinal’s #1 option in the passing game. While about 20 pounds lighter, Ertz reminds me of another Rob Gronkowski. While Eifert has the edge in speed, body control, and receiving skills, Ertz has in blocking and physicality.

31. San Francisco 49ers- Datone Jones, DE, UCLA

In spite of all the praise I heaped on Justin Smith when I talked about him during my Packers’ pick analysis, he is getting up there and injuries took a major toll on him as the season wore on last year. Jones is big for a DE- that’s why he played some DT and NT under Jim Mora, Jr. at UCLA last year. That kind of versatility in college usually

32. Baltimore Ravens- Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International

Let’s see- Ed Reed is gone and so is Bernard Pollard. Cyprien is the best available safety. He’s no Ed Reed (few are), but I don’t see how he can’t be a physical, enforcer-type of safety like Pollard was. The other top safeties available are on the smallish side. I’m guessing the Ravens will choose size, athleticism, and upside over a proven pedigree with size issues.

Round 2

33. Jacksonville Jaguars- Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

34. San Francisco 49ers- D.J. Swearinger, S, South Carolina

35. Philadelphia Eagles- Justin Pugh, OG, Syracuse

36. Detroit Lions- Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State

37. Cincinnati Bengals- Kevin Minter, MLB, LSU

38. Arizona Cardinals- Kyle Long, OG, Oregon

39. New York Jets- Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

40. Tennessee Titans- Matt Elam, S, Florida

41. Buffalo Bills- Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse

42. Miami Dolphins- D.J. Hayden, DB, Houston

43. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- John Jenkins, DT, Georgia

44. Carolina Panthers- Eric Reid, S, LSU

45. San Diego Chargers- Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky

46. St. Louis Rams- Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee

47. Dallas Cowboys- Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

48. Pittsburgh Steelers- Sio Moore, OLB, UConn

49. New York Giants- Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State

50. Chicago Bears- Terron Armstead, OT, SE Louisiana

51. Washington Redskins- Shamarko Thomas, S, Syracuse

52. Minnesota Vikings- Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech

53. Cincinnati Bengals- Giovani Bernard, RB, UNC

54. Miami Dolphins- Alex Okafor, DE, Texas

55. Green Bay Packers- Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin

56. Seattle Seahawks- Arthur Brown, MLB, Kansas State

57. Houston Texans- Khaseem Greene, OLB, Rutgers

58. Denver Broncos- Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

59. New England Patriots- Robert Woods, WR, USC

60. Atlanta Falcons- Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU

61. San Francisco 49ers- Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati

62. Baltimore Ravens- Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama

Round 3

63. Kansas City Chiefs- Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall

64. Jacksonville Jaguars- Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M

65. Detroit Lions- Stedman Bailey, WR, West Virginia

66. Oakland Raiders- E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida State

67. Philadelphia Eagles- Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State

68. Cleveland Browns- Mike Glennon, QB, NC State

69. Arizona Cardinals- Matt Barkley, QB, USC

70. Tennessee Titans- Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M

71. Buffalo Bills- Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU

72. New York Jets- Brian Winters, OG, Kent State

73. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern State

74. San Francisco 49ers- Philip Thomas, S, Fresno State

75. New Orleans Saints- Darius Slay, CB, Mississippi State

76. San Diego Chargers- Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon State

77. Miami Dolphins- Brandon Jenkins, DE, Florida State

78. St. Louis Rams- Le’veon Bell, RB, Michigan State

79. Pittsburgh Steelers- Kiko Alonso, MLB, Oregon

80. Dallas Cowboys- Dallas Thomas, OG, Tennessee

81. New York Giants- Kevin Reddick, MLB, UNC

82. Miami Dolphins- William Gholston, DE, Michigan State

83. Minnesota Vikings- Bennie Logan, DT, LSU

84. Cincinnati Bengals- David Bakhtiari, OT, Colorado

85. Washington Redskins- B.w. Webb, CB, William & Mary

86.  Indianapolis Colts- Barrett Jones, C, Alabama

87. Seattle Seahawks- Da’rick Rogers, WR, Tennessee Tech

88. Green Bay Packers- Knile Davis, RB, Arkansas

89. Houston Texans- Jon Bostic, MLB, Florida

90. Denver Broncos- Andre Ellington, RB, Clemson

91. New England Patriots- Jordan Reed, TE, Florida

92. Atlanta Falcons- John Simon, DE, Ohio State

93. San Francisco 49ers- Josh Boyce, WR, TCU

94. Baltimore Ravens- Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Miss

95. Houston Texans- Logan Ryan, CB, Rutgers

96. Kansas City Chiefs- Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas

97. Tennessee Titans- Ryan Swope, WR, Texas A&M

2013 MLB Season Predictions

Unlike last year, I'm not going to get in-depth. I simply haven't had the time or incentive to actively research the individual rosters, stories, and issues of each individual team. At any rate and without further ado, here are my 2013 MLB Predictions

AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles

AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Minnesota Twins

AL West
1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland A's
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros

NL East
1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets

NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West
1. San Francisco Giants
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres

AL MVP: Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
AL Cy Young: Matt Moore, Tampa Bay
AL Rookie of the Year: Wil Myers, Tampa Bay

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh
NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg, Washington
NL Rookie of the Year: Jedd Gyorko, San Diego Padres

2013 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

Author's Note: I've been getting nagged and harassed by one of my friends to get my first mock draft up, so I'm throwing him a bone by putting my picks out there. A more detailed analysis will come in the next few days.

1. Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Joeckel, LT, Texas A&M

2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

3. Oakland Raiders - Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

4. Philadelphia Eagles - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

5. Detroit Lions - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

6. Cleveland Browns - Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon

7. Arizona Cardinals - Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

8. Buffalo Bills - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

9. N.Y. Jets - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

10. Tennessee Titans - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama

11. San Diego Chargers - Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU

12. Miami Dolphins - Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

13. Tampa Bay Bucs - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

14. Carolina Panthers - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

15. New Orleans Saints - Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU

16. St. Louis Rams - Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

18. Dallas Cowboys - Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina

19. N.Y. Giants - Damontre Moore, OLB/DE, Texas A&M

20. Chicago Bears - D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

21. Cincinnati Bengals - Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State

22. St. Louis Rams - Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

23. Minnesota Vikings - Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

24. Indianapolis Colts - Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB, UConn

25. Minnesota Vikings - Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia 

26. Green Bay Packers - Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

27. Houston Texans - Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee

28. Denver Broncos - Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

29. New England Patriots - Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama

30. Atlanta Falcons - Alex Okafor, DE, Texas

31. San Francisco 49ers - Datone Jones, DE, UCLA

32. Baltimore Ravens - Kevin Minter, LB, LSU

Divining the Dance 1.0

It's been quite some time since I tried my hand at this. Too long, in fact. So I sat down this afternoon with a glass of a tea, my Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook, some good music, and dug into some heavy-duty college basketball numbers. By no means am I a number-crunching Mensa like Joe Lunardi or Jerry Palm, but I like to tinker with stuff like this. 

All that being said, here is my take on the seeding of the upcoming 2013 Men's basketball tournament. Enjoy. 

1: Indiana, Florida, Miami, Duke

2: Kansas, Michigan State, Michigan, Syracuse

3: New Mexico, Arizona, Gonzaga, Louisville

4: Kansas State, Georgetown, Marquette, Butler

5: Wisconsin, Colorado State, Ohio State, Notre Dame

6: Oregon, Pittsburgh, Memphis, San Diego State

7: Oklahoma State, UNLV, Cincinnati, VCU

8: NC State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Minnesota

9: Colorado, UCLA, St. Louis, Wichita State

10: Ole Miss, Boise State, Creighton, Maryland

11: Charlotte, Illinois, La Salle, Temple

12: Middle Tennessee State, Belmont, Villanova, Kentucky, UNC, St. Mary's 

13: Akron, South Dakota State, Bucknell, Louisiana Tech

14: Davidson, Long Beach State, Valparaiso, Stony Brook

15: Niagara, Montana, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard

16: Norfolk State, Northeastern, Southern, High Point, Mercer, Robert Morris

Last Four In: La Salle, Minnesota, Villanova, Charlotte

First Four Out: Baylor, Indiana State, Wyoming, Arizona State

N.B. The seeds are written in random order. Really. 

A few thoughts:

-  A lot of people expect a ton of upsets this. I don't buy it. This is by no means a world-beating group of Top 4 seeds like we had in 2007 or even last year, but none of the teams on the top three seed line would surprise me if they got to the Final Four. 

- My favorite sleeper this year is Akron. I don't have a nice mathematical reason or much to go by as the "eye test" goes. Call it a hunch. The MAC has produced its fair share of bracket busters in the past. 

- Kansas at a 2 may surprise some. Even with their recent 3-game slide still in the back of most folks' minds, I still believe in KU as a legitimate championship-quality team. They will need better PG play from Elijah Johnson for that to happen, of course. 

- Duke is a strange team. When they had PF Ryan Kelly, they were a slam-dunk favorite. Without him, they've been playing like more of a 3- or 4-seed team. I've heard from multiple media reports that Duke will get Kelly back by the end of February. That gives him a couple of regular season games and the ACC tournament to get back into the flow of playing basketball regularly again. Will those five games return Duke to its pre-injury form? Or will they struggle acclimating Kelly's return, much like they did when Kyrie Irving returned in 2011 from his toe injury? Given that Kelly is a PF and not a PG, I think Duke will find it easier re-learning how to play with Kelly than they did re-learning how to play with Irving. The other benefit is that Kelly's injury and potential return would give Duke some much-needed depth, as the Blue Devils have had to give a couple of freshmen, Amile Jefferson and Alex Murphy, more PT than I'm sure Mike Krzyzewski planned on back in October. 

- I really don't understand why Minnesota is considered a lock for the tourney. They have a nice RPI and SOS, but other than that, they only have a smattering of decent wins. To cap it all off, they've played like garbage for the majority of February. 

- Given how well Miami is playing, it's hard to believe that they lost to Florida Gulf Coast. (Even though they really did.) 

- Pro tip: if UCLA plays a grind-it-out, smashmouth basketball team, they're screwed. As a 9-seed in my predictions, they would play one of NC State, Missouri, Oklahoma, or Minnesota. If that's the case, the Bruins should pray they get to play Missouri. They already beat them once and the other three teams are far more physical and play more deliberate styles of basketball, something UCLA has proven this year they hate playing against. IF (and it's a big one) they get past their first-round game, only Florida would try to muck it up with UCLA. The other three #1 seeds would have a little harder time dealing with UCLA's athletes. I'd still pick every #1 seed to beat UCLA, but things could get dicey for them if UCLA's offense starts clicking.

- Don't bet against Rick Pitino. I do this every year. I still don't know why. I feel so stupid right now. This Louisville team is practically built for March. Stingy defense, solid guards, and veteran savvy. What more could a Pitino-coached squad want? This Cardinals team has Final Four written all over them. 

Sorting out the BCS Mess- the 11-12-12 edition

With the college football season of 2012 experiencing a major tide shift (seewhatididthere?) this weekend, I knew the time was ripe for a BCS-related, nay, college football-themed blog post. Presenting my 2012 State of the Union that is college football.

With the demise of Alabama already written in stone for all of history to see, as well as the removal of Louisville from the ranks of the unbeatens. We are left with four undefeated teams. Oregon, K-State, and Notre Dame all avoided the deathtrap that Alabama fell in, while the fourth, Ohio State, did not play this weekend. We'll get to the Buckeyes in a moment, but for now, I want to talk about the candidacy of the top three.

1. Kansas State

I must confess myself legitimately surprised by KSU this year. I thought they would do well, win around 9 games and go to a decent bowl game. I didn't account for the effects that leadership the caliber of Bill Snyder, Collin Klein, and MLB Arthur Brown has on football teams. I forgot what I saw in 2011, in short. What I saw in 2011 was a team that played sound, disciplined, and mostly error-free football. I saw a team that doesn't kill itself. I was flat-out wrong when I picked them for sixth in the Big XII. Definitely not proud of that. Other than the reasons I already listed, Kansas State is about as Midwestern as it gets- not flashy, not spectacular, and definitely not terribly interesting. Despite a passing offense that ranks 87th in the nation, the Wildcats are still putting up well over 40 points a game. With games against Baylor and Texas left, the road to Miami  is not without its potholes, but given the way KSU has played this year and historically under Snyder, it's hard for me to believe that they'll lose either game. With their impressive resume, they will assuredly be in the BCS Championship Game over Notre Dame, provided the Ducks can take care of their end of the bargain. Of the three undefeateds, K-State is the most balanced team and offers the best challenge to either Notre Dame or Oregon.

Key Game: at West Virginia
FULL SCREEN VERSION

Animated Drive Chart brought to you by Gameday Depot.
In a game that pitted the top QB's in the Big XII, K-State left no doubt as to who the consensus best team in the Big XII was, battering the Mountaineers to the tune of 55-14. This game especially sticks out because you can see just how brutally efficient KSU was in putting the Mountaineers right behind the 8-ball. The other major point that this game shows is that KSU is more than capable of handling an aggressive, no-huddle offense. (Looking at you, Oregon)

2. Oregon

Once Alabama lost, the Ducks immediately assumed the mantle of the "best team in America." They didn't disappoint, dropping a 59-spot at Cal. The win was as important as every other win in college football is, but the big revelation was the showing by Marcus Mariota who officially alleviated concerns the Ducks or their fans may have had about their ability to pass, as he dropped 377 yards and 6 TD's on the hapless Bears. This has been the best team in the history of Oregon football and their spot in the BCS title game is protected, especially if they take care of Stanford, Oregon State, and likely UCLA in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
As the flashiest, prettiest, and most "expected" of the top three BCS teams, the Ducks have the most pressure on them, but they've gotten used to it and Chip Kelly is cementing his place as one of the sharpest minds in the business. Though they've given up more than 20 points a game on defense, this is still one of the most complete teams in the country. With likely no SEC team on the horizon, Oregon's path to a BCS title as wide-open as it has ever been.

Key Game: at USC
FULL SCREEN VERSION

Animated Drive Chart brought to you by Gameday Depot. This curb-stomping was a showcase on national TV for all the world to see just how ruthless and brutally efficient the Ducks have become. While their defense remains as ugly as ever, the Oregon offense tore through USC's defense all game long. It also firmly cemented Kenjon Barner's place in the Heisman race.

3. Notre Dame

If I was legitimately surprised about K-State, color me absolutely stunned about Notre Dame. I had them pegged for a good-but-not-great 8-win season and I fully expected them to keep the Charlie Weis-inspired tradition of losing at least four times a year going. After the Irish dismantled Oklahoma (a game I saw in person), I fully bought in on the Irish as a legitimate contender, albeit with one caveat- the Irish aren't as good as KSU or Oregon. Not only will Notre Dame need to win out, they need someone to take down the Ducks and Wildcats. Of course, even if this happens, the window is still open for Notre Dame to get passed in the BCS by a one-loss Alabama or Georgia, whoever wins the SEC Championship Game.
Consider- let's pretend Kansas State loses at home to Texas on December 1, while Oregon wins out. That leaves the Ducks and Irish as #1 and #2. (We're assuming Notre Dame wins out, too.) Meanwhile, Alabama blows out Western Carolina, Auburn, and beats BCS #5 team Georgia like a drum on December 1. This leaves the voters with a choice- do they take Kansas State, who has the most good wins out of these three but just lost to Texas? Probably not? Do they take Notre Dame who beat a three- or four-loss USC team in LA but was idle on December 1? Maaaaaaaaaybe. Do they take a one-loss SEC champion like Alabama? That's where this gets interesting. Pat Dye was recently on Paul Finebaum's Alabama-based radio show talking about that very situation.

Dye on BCS Rankings,'There's a possibility that an SEC team (Bama) can jump over an undefeated Notre Dame.'
— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) November 12, 2012

Just one man's opinion, but the potential is there, however unlikely it may seem.

Key Game: at Oklahoma
FULL SCREEN VERSION

Animated Drive Chart brought to you by Gameday Depot.
This game was the one that absolutely told me that the Irish were for real. Oklahoma had only lost four times in the last dozen years at home under Bob Stoops, their offense was rolling, and the game was in primetime. Yet the Irish went in with a redshirt freshman at QB, stifled the Oklahoma offense, and wore down the Sooners over a four-quarter beatdown. The game was closer than the score, in my opinion, but the Irish absolutely squashed the Sooners and in doing so told me and the rest of America that they were for real.

BCS Bowl Picks

So, if the BCS were picked today, who goes where? Allow me to channel my inner Brad Edwards for a moment....

BCS Championship: 1 Kansas State vs. 2 Oregon

Fiesta Bowl: 3 Notre Dame vs. 8 Texas A&M

Rose Bowl: 14 Nebraska vs. 7 LSU

Sugar Bowl: 4 Alabama vs. 12 Oklahoma

Orange Bowl: 10 Florida State vs. 19 Louisville

With the Big XII and Pac-12 champions off to Miami, the Fiesta Bowl and Rose Bowl get to pick first and second. The Fiesta Bowl takes ratings juggernaut Notre Dame first and pairs them with a hot new name, Texas A&M. The Rose Bowl gets stuck with Nebraska and is forced to take LSU from the SEC. (I am not sure if a SEC team is allowed to play in the Rose Bowl, but I think they can. I haven't been able to find any information to the contrary online.)
The Sugar Bowl can't believe its dumb luck and grabs the two biggest names available, setting up a fantastic OU-Bama matchup.
The Orange Bowl takes one for the team and sticks us all with the Seminoles against Louisville.

My Heisman 5:
1. Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
2. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
3. Collin Klein, Kansas State
4. Braxton Miller, Ohio State
5. Kenjon Barner, Oregon

The Heisman is an individual award an no one player has been better this year than Manti Te'o. Also, I am sick of the Heisman imitating the Davey O'Brien award. It's not QB-exclusive, folks. Te'o is better than any player on that list right now.

Going-Away Thought: Could Ohio State force a split National Championship?

One of the biggest "what ifs" of the 2012 season will undoubtedly be what impact, if any, an undefeated Ohio State may have had on the BCS if they were eligible for the postseason this year. If ranked in the BCS, I'd guess the Buckeyes would be ranked about 5th right now, but would have virtually no chance of leapfrogging KSU, Oregon, Notre Dame, or even 1-loss Alabama. They can thank the Big Ten for having such a miserable year and their own preseason poll slot being too low.
Now, if Ohio State wins out and beats Wisconsin and Michigan (which they likely will), they will be 12-0 and idle while the rest of the BCS mess sorts itself out.  While far from a lock, someone will likely go undefeated this year, but every other non-Ohio State team will have a loss. One would assume that whoever wins the BCS Championship Game will be the unanimous #1 team in the country, but I wonder if there's one AP voter who wouldn't give Ohio State their #1 vote this year. Only getting one vote may not seem like much, but with no team becoming the consensus national champion by unanimous decision, it's possible that Ohio State could force the issue and claim their own split national championship. They would be criticized across the nation for doing so, but AD Gene Smith and university president E. Gordon Gee haven't exactly shown themselves to be in possession of good judgment. Nice job with that whole, "we didn't expect a bowl ban this year" rhetoric guys. What might have been, indeed.