2012 Big XII Preview

1. Oklahoma (11-1)

2. Texas (11-1)

3. Oklahoma State (10-2)

4. West Virginia (9-3)

5. TCU (9-3)

6. Kansas State (8-4)

7. Baylor (5-7)

8. Texas Tech (5-7)

9. Iowa State (3-9)

10. Kansas (3-9)

1. Oklahoma had an interesting season in 2011, to put it mildly. What started out as a National Championship chase quickly devolved into a disappointing 3-loss season, highlighted by a home loss to Texas Tech and a blowout in the Bedlam Game authored by in-state rival Oklahoma State. Toss in the loss of Ryan Broyles turning Landry Jones into Tim Tebow and many Sooner fans were left wondering just what the hell happened in 2011. 2012 is chock-full of promise for OU. That’s not to say that there aren’t sore spots. The offseason has been anything but “off” in Norman. The Sooners lost two projected starting offensive linemen when All-Big XII C Ben Habern was forced to “retire” after neck surgery and starting RG Tyler Evans tore his ACL shortly thereafter, crippling OU’s offensive line depth. This all came after coach Bob Stoops gave the boot to starting WR Kameel Jackson. Yes, turmoil has been the name of the game in the offseason for Oklahoma. No team, except maybe Penn State will be happier to be back on the field on opening day. On paper, Oklahoma looks like a legitimate National Title threat even with the loss of those players. Jones is back and hopefully over the disaster that was his 2nd half of 2011, as is RB Dominique Whaley, who gave the Sooners’ running game a big boost in 2011 before getting injured. The defense figures to improve under the coaching of new defensive coordinator Mike Stoops, who rejoins his brother after a stop in Tucson. After the question marks on offense, the Sooners’ other major concern has to be their schedule. It’s backloaded, starting with a home date vs. Notre Dame and concluding with road games at West Virginia and TCU sandwiching their rivalry game against Oklahoma State.

Pick a QB, any QB

2. 2012 figures to be a landmark year for the Texas program. The struggles Mack Brown and Co. have had to face on the field since Colt McCoy led the Horns to the National Championship in 2009 has created an uneasy feeling around the program, which has in turn led to restless fans getting a bit more impatient with the program. The heat is definitely on Texas in 2012. Luckily for Texas, the Horns’ defense is one of the very best in the nation, featuring two studly defensive ends in Jackson Jeffcoat and Alex Okafor, along with a solid secondary featuring safety Kenny Vacarro as its anchor. For the 3rd straight year in Austin, the onus is on the QB position. Is David  Ash to guy? Is it Case McCoy? That’s the key for Texas, especially since their skill positions and offensive line are well-regarded. LSU might have a deeper set of RBs, but pound-for-pound, the RB corps in Texas is absolutely disgusting. Each of their top three tailbacks would be starters at nearly every other DI program, except maybe Wisconsin and Oregon. Malcolm Brown figures to be the starter, but expect a healthy dose of bruiser Joe Bergeron and electrifying freshman Jonathan Gray, one of the most accomplished RBs in the history of Texas high school football.

He's a man, he's 40, and he still doesn't get any respect

3. It’s not often that a team that rips through the Big XII, obliterates Texas and Oklahoma along the way, goes 12-1, and wins a BCS bowl gets no respect heading into the next season. Yet that’s exactly where the Pokes find themselves in 2012. Of course, it’s also not often that a team has to replace a first-round draft pick at QB and WR who just happened to be 2 of the school’s greatest ever at the position. Regardless, the track record is still there for Mike Gundy’s team. Even better, Oklahoma State returns its top 3 rushers from last year. Even so, with a freshman scheduled to start at QB, a regression at the position is to be expected. Overall, Oklahoma State only returns 4 starters on offense, but that’s Gundy’s forte. I expect him and OC Todd Monken to have the Pokes rolling on offense by the end of the season. Defensively, the Pokes won’t be confused with Alabama or LSU, but they were opportunistic and plenty good enough to slow down the other team enough for the Cowboys to win 12 games. With 8 starters back, that unit should remain stable and improve with another year of experience. Oklahoma State has earned the benefit of the doubt and I will call for a surprise 10-win season from them again.

For old time's sake:

4. West Virginia joins TCU in a move from a “lesser” conference to the big-time, as the Mountaineers left the comfortable confines of the Big East for the mighty Big XII. While it’s great that the Mountaineers figure to have the conference’s best offense (or very close to it), they still have to face the fact that their defense will be severely tested. That’s not a huge problem in the woeful Big East and it won’t be too much of a problem in the Big XII, since defense has been optional in the conference since Oklahoma shifted to its current hurry-up style five or six years ago. Still, Big XII offenses are on a completely different level than the Big East’s style and skill levels. I expect a sizable regression across the board for the Mountaineers’ defense, especially with their top two DE’s gone. While many regard this transition as a hand-in-glove fit because of Dana Holgorsen’s familiarity with the Big XII from his days at Oklahoma State, the reality is that there will likely be an adjustment period for West Virginia. Road games to Oklahoma State and Texas will be difficult and the mid-season gauntlet of Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma will make-or-break this team’s season.

5. Although I picked West Virginia to finish higher this year, I expect TCU to be the better team over the next decade in the Big XII, so long as Gary Patterson remains as their head coach. TCU’s unique style of defense will keep the Horned Frogs competitive and their offense, underrated during Patterson’s tenure because of that defense, will be more than enough to hang with the Big XII’s juggernauts. As for 2012, it looks like a bit of a retooling job, as the Frogs must replace half of their starters from last year, including three offensive linemen. Patterson has historically done a good job of filling holes through player development, but the jump from the Mountain West to the Big XII is a steep one. There will be growing pains for the Horned Frogs. Even more troubling is the schedule. Though TCU has an excellent shot at bowl eligibility thanks to an easy seven-game stretch to open the season, the schedule is terribly back-loaded. TCU’s final five games in order are at Oklahoma State, at West Virginia, home against Kansas State, at Texas, and the season finale at home versus Oklahoma ouch. I hope QB Casey Pachall has been eating his Wheaties this offseason.

6. Kansas State was one of the feel-good stories of the college football season. They were also one of the most entertaining, as Bill Snyder enjoyed one of his finest seasons during his time in Manhattan. The Wildcats were fun on offense and played in a ton of close games, winning most of them. Unfortunately, they got left out in the cold when it came time for BCS Bowl bids, but overall, it was a fine season. Much like 2011, the expectations aren’t as high going into the season. Though K-State brings back 14 starters, including Heisman candidate Collin Klein, there are a couple factors pointing against them in 2012. The most glaring one is of course the fact that they won no fewer than 8 close games in 2011. It’s a little unreasonable to expect the Wildcats to repeat that kind of success in 2012, so expect a couple extra losses tacked on to this year’s record. Secondly, the offensive line has three new starters. It’s great that most of Kansas State’s primary skill position players are back, but the offensive line remains a question mark for now. Even though Kansas State returns 14 starters, including their best players on offense (Klein) and defense (LB Arthur Brown), I expect a regression in 2012.

7. 2011 was a year for the record books in Baylor, as the team enjoyed what will probably go down as the single-greatest season in school history. The Bears won 10 games, featured the Heisman Trophy winner at QB, and beat Oklahoma for the first time, ever. Much like Oklahoma State, the 2012 edition of their team has some major holes to fill. Robert Griffin is gone, as is top Big XII rusher Terrence Ganaway and top WR Kendall Wright. It’s difficult to put a number on just how many games the Bears ought to lose with those three players gone. Much like Kansas State, Baylor survived on the skin of their QB’s teeth and won four close games in 2012, suggesting a major relapse. The Bears still have the upside to win 8 games, if QB Nick Florence is up to the task of replacing Griffin. The most intriguing player on the roster is new RB Lache Seastrunk, a former top recruit who left Oregon.

8. Texas Tech was mostly pitiful and occasionally mediocre in 2012, but they scored one of the biggest upsets of 2011 when they beat 28-point favorite Oklahoma in Norman. Despite that trophy on their mantle from 2011, the Red Raiders missed a bowl. This year’s team looks much stronger with 17 returning starters despite their 0-5 finish to the season last year. This year’s schedule opens with 3 likely wins and if the Raiders can pull off the occasional upset, the odds are good that the Raiders will return to a bowl in 2012. That’s about all they can reasonably hope for.

Probably won't be too many
Gatorade baths for Rhoads this year

9. Just like Texas Tech, the Cyclones were usually mediocre, mostly playing the Charlie Brown to the Big XII’s Lucy, but they too scored a huge victory in 2011. Though the long-term ramifications of that win may not be truly realized for a couple years, the Cyclones are a program on the rise. It’s difficult to see them competing for the Big XII crown very often, considering their competition, but the work head coach Paul Rhoads has done here has been very impressive. This year, Iowa State has a chance at a bowl game with 7 returning starters on offense (though they did lose OC Tom Herman to Ohio State), but the schedule is not kind. Non-conference games against Tulsa and Iowa will be tough and the usual Big XII schedule features trips to Oklahoma State, TCU, and Texas along with home games against West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Kansas State. It’s hard to see Iowa State reaching a bowl in 2012.

10. The next few years of Jayhawks football will likely decide if they go the way of Indiana, Duke, and Kentucky or go in the direction of UCLA or North Carolina. For the 2nd time in the last four years, Kansas has a new coach. This time, the chance went to Charlie Weis, who was last seen ruining Florida’s offense. Though he doesn’t have the expectations he had while at Notre Dame in his prior head coaching job, he also won’t have the resources he did to win games. The Jayhawks were fortunate in that they were able to bring in QBs Dayne Crist and Jake Heaps as transfers. Kansas will likely be better on QB, but not much anywhere else.

All Big XII Team

Malcolm Brown

QB Geno Smith, West Virginia

RB Malcolm Brown, Texas

RB Dominique Whaley, Oklahoma

WR Kenny Stills, Oklahoma
WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
WR Josh Boyce, TCU

TE Travis Tannahill, Kansas State

OT Lane Taylor, Oklahoma

OG Blaize Foltz, TCU
C Joe Madsen, West Virginia

OG Josh Jenkins, West Virginia
OT  LaAdrian Waddle, Texas Tech

Brodrick Brown

DE Alex Okafor, Texas

DT Jamarkus McFarland, Oklahoma

DE Stansly Maponga, TCU
DE Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas

LB A.J. Klein, Iowa State
LB Arthur Brown, Kansas State
LB Jake Knott, Iowa State
DB Brodrick Brown, Oklahoma State
DB Carrington Byndom, Texas
DB Kenny Vacarro, Texas
DB Ahmad Dixon, Baylor

K Quinn Sharp, Oklahoma State

P Tress Way, Oklahoma

KR Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State

Ten Players to Watch

Klein

QB Collin Klein, Kansas State

DB Nigel Malone, Kansas State

RB Jonathan Gray, Texas

WR Stedman Bailey, West Virginia

QB Landry Jones, Oklahoma

QB Blake Bell, Oklahoma

RB Lache Seastrunk, Baylor

QB Seth Doege, Texas Tech

DB Quandre Diggs, Texas

LB/DB Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma