1. Georgia (12-0)
2. South Carolina (9-3)
3. Florida (8-4)
4. Tennessee (8-4)
5. Missouri (7-5)
6. Vanderbilt (5-7)
7. Kentucky (5-7)
1. LSU (11-1)
2. Alabama (11-1)
3. Arkansas (10-2)
4. Auburn (7-5)
5. Mississippi State (6-6)
6. Texas A&M (5-7)
7. Ole Miss (3-9)
East Division
1. Georgia,
the media’s preseason pick to win the East (based on their superior preseason
poll placement relative to South Carolina), is one of the most complete teams
in the country, not just the SEC. Returning 16 starters from a 10-win team,
including all-SEC candidates Aaron Murray, Jarvis Jones, Bacarri Rambo, and
John Jenkins has the Dawgs thinking big in 2012. It also doesn’t hurt that they
miss the SEC West gauntlet of Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU, too. Replacing 3
starters on the offensive line will be a question that needs to get answered
well before Georgia enters SEC play. Other than the early-season suspensions of
Rambo, starting LB Alec Ogletree, DBs Sanders Commings and Branden Smith, there
aren’t many other major question marks facing Georgia.
 |
| Jadeveon Clowney |
2. The
Gamecocks enjoyed a historic season in 2011, winning a
school-record 11 games
capped off by humiliating Nebraska in the Capital One Bowl. Steve Spurrier has
the South Carolina program rolling at a level close to what he enjoyed at
Florida in the 90s. The top question facing South Carolina now will be whether
or not this traditionally mediocre program can sustain its success and adjust
to being the hunted instead of the hunter. Their recent track record in
recruiting suggests they ought to, but for now the forecast is not as sunny as it
was heading into 2011. USC only returns 11 starters and its top offensive
player, Marcus Lattimore is recovering from a torn ACL. QB Connor Shaw will
have to adjust to life in the passing game without Alshon Jeffery. Defensively,
South Carolina will be strong again even with Melvin Ingram and Stephon Gilmore
off to the NFL. DE Jadeveon Clowney appears ready to take the next step and
become the next marquee SEC pass rusher. With that being said, the rest of the
east is stronger than it’s been in years and the Gamecocks draw Arkansas and LSU
out of the west. I don’t think South Carolina will fall far, but the odds aren’t
in their favor for a return to double-digit wins.
3. Florida
had a rough 2011 with a lot of instability facing the program. They had a new
coach, only 9 returning starters, and no-clear cut starter at QB. While the QB picture
again looks muddy, the young Gators defense has had another offseason of
coaching under Will Muschamp and brings back 10 starters. They should be one of
the 15 best units in the country easily. With such a stacked defense, the
Gators won’t be out of many games this year. The problem with them looks like
it will once again stem from the offense not being able to punch the ball into
the end zone against top defenses. Other than RB Mike Gillislee, the offense is
devoid of playmakers. Four returning starters on the offensive line will be a
big help to whoever is at QB, though. I’m interested to see what new OC Brent
Pease (formerly at Boise State) will do with the Gators’ skill players. The
schedule isn’t terrible, as they have only three SEC road games. After their
game at Vandy on October 13, the Gators won’t leave Florida until their bowl
game, most likely.
 |
| Will this be Derek Dooley's last year in Knoxville? |
4. No program
faces more major “what ifs” in 2012 than the Tennessee Vols. It’s hard to say
where to start with Tennessee. Their fanbase has gotten restless when it comes
to coach Derek Dooley, placing him squarely on the hot seat this year and
making it a do-or-die season for QB Tyler Bray. Luckily for Bray, he gets back his
top two targets, WRs Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers, along with their top recruit,
Juco WR transfer Cordarelle Patterson. The Vols also return their whole
offensive line in 2012. With a total of 10(!) returning starters, this should
be one of the SEC’s top offenses in 2012. Defensively, the Vols return nine
starters and brought in former Alabama DE Darrington Sentimore to go with nine
more returning starters. This is Dooley’s best team in his time in Knoxville,
placing him squarely on the hottest of hot seats this year. Unlike last year,
the Vols dodge LSU and Arkansas, but do face Alabama again and also get a
non-conference game with ACC contender NC State and later road games at Georgia
and South Carolina. I have the Vols pegged for at least an eight-win season
this year. Whether that will be enough
to save the coach remains to be seen.
5. One of the
headline movers on the conference realignment carousel was Missouri, and they
get rewarded with a devastating SEC schedule. That’s the major difference
between last year’s 8-win Missouri team and this year’s team. If this Mizzou
team was still in the Big 12, they’d be my pick to be the 2012 version of 2011
Kansas State. As it stands, they aren’t in the Big XII and I just wasted three
sentences talking about a mythical scenario. Anyway, back to SEC football.
Missouri’s schedule is brutal. I don’t think it’s the hardest in the SEC (that
honor belongs to Ole Miss), but it’s going to be plenty challenging for Gary
Pinkel’s crew. For starters, they have four road games- at South Carolina, Florida,
Tennessee, and Texas A&M plus dates with Alabama and Georgia at home. The
roster will be a little different in 2012, too. Only 12 starters return, but
the Tigers got a big-time commitment on Signing Day when Dorial Green-Beckham
signed with the home team instead of going to SEC foe Arkansas. Even though this
Missouri team is not the best one they’ve fielded compared to recent years,
they will still be one of the nation’s most interesting teams with returning QB
James Franklin pairing up with DGB.
 |
| QB Jordan Rodgers |
6.
Vanderbilt was one of the feel-good stories of 2011 as the Commodores finally
showed signs of life as a program, winning six games and reaching a bowl game
for only the 5th time since 1955. The program has the most positive vibes
surrounding it in its history, a testament to the kind of program-changing
attitude head coach James Franklin brought to Nashville. Even more of a cause
for optimism among the Commodores is the return of 15 starters coupled with the
arrival of a Top 25 recruiting class. Despite all this good news and
positivity, there is still a lot of work to be done. Oftentimes when a new
coach comes into a program that has been down on its luck and he has early
success, there can be issues sustaining it. Part of it is a case of role
reversal that players aren’t accustomed to- they go from being looked down on
by the bigger, badder teams in their conference to suddenly being taken much
more seriously the next year. That’s what I forecast for Vandy in 2012. This
looks like a classic case of team whose improvement is not evident in its W-L
record. With the SEC East improving and adding another quality team in
Missouri, the Commodores will have their work cut out for themselves if they
want to be bowl eligible for a consecutive year.
7. I try to
be fair and relatively courteous when it comes to conference prognostication,
but when it comes to Kentucky, the prospects do not look bright at all in 2012.
As I have stated a number of times already, the SEC is much-improved. That in
of itself will probably add a loss or two to Kentucky’s record this year and I
haven’t even begun to discuss the fact that they only bring back 11 starters
from last year’s team. (Maybe that’s a good thing for a team that only won five
games a year ago.) The Wildcats had one of the weakest rushing offenses in the
SEC (leading rusher CoShik Williams had just 514 yards on 118 carries) and
their QB play behind freshman Maxwell Smith was not good either. Luckily for
coach Joker Phillips, he was able to bring in a highly regard prep QB via recruiting
in 6-5, 245 pound prospect Patrick Towles. For the simple fact that their QB
play can’t be much worse than it was in 2011, I do expect Kentucky’s offense to
improve at least a little bit. Kentucky got stomped for much of 2011 until
their last two games of the season, and I do expect them to be much more competitive.
The SEC East’s improvement coupled with a more difficult schedule has me
putting the Cats down for another losing year. There’s always basketball,
Kentucky.
West Division
1. LSU’s
2011 team was either impressive or disappointing, depending on who you ask.
Beating eight ranked teams and winning the SEC will almost always be cause for
a huge party for whoever accomplishes that task. In spite of this, there are
those who would be unsatisfied with the season, especially considering how it
ended. The good news for LSU is that Alabama is (slightly) weaker in 2012, both
Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson are gone, and the Tiger defense looks as
stingy as it ever has, even with last year’s two starting corners and NT
Michael Brockers gone. Even though LSU returns 12 starters from the 2011
edition, the Tigers were fortunate in that they played in a lot of blowouts and
were able to give a lot of their reserves a fair amount of in-game reps and
work. So even though 12 starters is technically a low number of starters to
have back, the guys that they will fill their holes with are really, really
good players and most of them will have gotten some work in games last year.
The biggest question mark for LSU once again lies at QB. Last year’s LSU QB were
classic examples of game managers. All Les Miles had to do was look at their
opponent, decide which side of their defense he wanted to run the ball at the
most, which of their six quality running backs he wanted to use the most, and
tell Lee or Jefferson not to screw it up. That worked to the tune of 13 wins.
If new QB Zach Mettenberger can be even 10-15% better than what LSU got last
year, expect LSU’s offense to be even better. That’s good news for LSU’s
defense, especially considering the fact that the now-unavailable Tyrann
Mathieu single-handedly won or contributed heavily to LSU’s wins against Oregon,
Arkansas, and Georgia.
| Barrett Jones leads the way for Bama's offensive line |
2. The Crimson
Tide enjoyed yet another fantastic season under uber-coach Nick Saban, losing
one game in overtime and winning all the rest of their games by no fewer than
16 points. A lot of prognosticators compare the 2012 team to the 2010 team, which
was also coming off a national championship and dealing with a mass exodus of talent
on defense (only 2 returning starters that year). What has me higher on 2012
Alabama than I was on 2010 Alabama is their schedule. If you recall, in 2010
Alabama had six SEC games against opponents who had a bye the week before. This
of course paved the way for a disappointing (by Alabama standards) 10-3 season.
Despite these trends and comparisons, 2012 Alabama won’t fall far. They have
dominated as much off the field in recruiting as they have on the field, so
this year’s team will be every bit as talented as any in the country. I think early
on their defensive youth will cost them a game or two, but by the end of the
season, they will be in fully-fledged beast mode on defense, setting themselves
up for another monster year in 2013. Offensively, the Crimson Tide looks pretty
spectacular. Even with their top four receiving leaders from last year gone
(including all-world RB Trent Richardson), Alabama does return A.J. McCarron
fresh off of his BCS Championship game performance and they bring back four starters
on the offensive line. With the addition of former top recruit Cyrus Kouandijo
at LT to the other four starters, this is an easy choice as the best offensive
line in college football. They might even be better than some NFL offensive lines.
Though they bring back only 11 starters, when you play for a juggernaut like
Alabama or LSU, you get a lot of in-game reps simply because you’re pummeling
teams and coaches pull starters by the end of games. I fully expect Alabama to
push hard for the SEC West crown and if they can avoid the pitfalls along the way
(be they inexperience, other SEC teams, or just bad luck), win another national
championship.
 |
| He's crazy, he's wacky, he's...a perfect fit for Arkansas? |
3. The
Razorbacks were en route to being one of the trendiest championship picks of
2012 until a poorly-timed and poorly-executed motorcycle ride torpedoed the coaching
career of Bobby Petrino and left the athletic department in a horrible
predicament. In short, this is going to be a weird year in Arkansas. Despite
all the hubbub and distractions surrounding the spring in Fayetteville, this is
still a really good football team. If they were in any conference except the SEC
and Pac-12, they’d be the conference favorites. They bring back 7 starters on
offense and get back all-SEC candidate RB Knile Davis from a season-ending
injury suffered before last season. Even with three wide receivers off to the NFL,
this is still a very, potent offense, clearly the best one in the SEC. Even
better, the Hogs get divisional rivals LSU and Alabama at home this year. Most
didn’t like the hire of John L. Smith, but I think that he’ll be a good fill-in
for Bobby Petrino. They’ll miss the play-calling but having a coach working on
such a short contract gives me a sense that he might coach like he has nothing
to lose and take a few more risks that could spring Arkansas to win a game they
shouldn’t have. Arkansas did win a few close games last year and the law of
averages would suggest they might drop a game or two they wouldn’t typically.
4. Auburn
has been an odd team to follow the last few years. For most of the time during 2008-2011,
they had been a mediocre 8-win team. Obviously, 2010 was the outlier, when Cam
Newton bulldozed the SEC en route to another SEC championship game victory. I’ve
had a hard time trying to put my finger on the pulse of the Tigers and 2012
looks to be no different. They had been running a spread for the past three
years and are shifting back to the classic smashmouth offense Auburn was famous
for when they had running backs like Bo Jackson, Cadillac Williams, Rudi
Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Kenny Irons, and Ben Tate carrying the rock for them. This
bodes well for Auburn’s future, but in the short term, given the brutality of
their division and their own relative inexperience at QB and on the offensive
line (only one player older than a sophomore projected as a starter), Auburn
fans might have to be a little more patient than they want to be, especially
with Alabama’s recent performance across the state staring them in the eyes.
The Tigers’ schedule is soft by SEC standards- their only SEC road games are at
Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Vandy, but they do have to play the top 3 SEC
West teams and they start off with Clemson in Atlanta on Labor Day weekend. I
expect Auburn to struggle to top eight wins this year, but Gene Chizik has done
a great job in Auburn and has shown an ability to exceed expectations on a
yearly basis while there. (Random stat: Chizik is undefeated as a
coach/assistant in bowl games- 9-0!)
5. Two years
ago, Mississippi State looked like a team primed to rise from years of
ineptitude and mediocrity and take a step up as a program, winning 9 games and
thumping Michigan in the Gator Bowl. As is so often the case, the newfound high
expectations were too much for the Bulldogs and they sputtered to a 7-win
season in 2011. Across the board, team performance slumped and they barely beat
Wake Forest in their bowl game to escape falling below .500. This year’s team
only returns 12 starters, including only two on the offensive line. The Bulldog
defense should be serviceable with 7 starters back from a unit that allowed
less than 20 points a game last year. Their schedule is one of the most
favorable in the SEC, as they get both of the SEC’s bottom-feeders on the road
as well as Arkansas. Much like Vanderbilt, Mississippi State figures to be an
improved team, though their record might not reflect that.
 |
| He's smiling now, but here's guessing he won't be when they play at Alabama |
6. Texas A&M
joined Missouri in leaving the Big XII for the SEC, but unlike Missouri, they
drew the short straw. For starters, A&M got stuck in the West division.
Secondly, they get to play 2 of the SEC East’s top teams as well as Missouri.
Finally, they drew four SEC road games. All of these suggest to me that the
Aggies will have issues matching last year’s 7 win total. I haven’t even begun
to address the fact that they have a new starting QB, new head coach, and
thirteen starters from a team that gave up nearly 30 points a game in the Big
XII. While SEC offenses won’t be confused with the spread attacks of the Big
XII, their defenses will certainly enjoy going after redshirt freshman starting
QB Johnny Manziel. Texas A&M better plan on sweeping their non-conference
games (Louisiana Tech, SMU, South Carolina State, and Sam Houston State) if
they want to have a shot at a bowl game this year.
7. If you
thought my review of Kentucky was bad, imagine what it’s like to be Ole Miss.
First off, you play in the SEC West, so you’re getting a guaranteed three games
against teams like Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU, plus Auburn. Then you find out
that your rival is starting to win more of the big local recruits than you are
and they’ve got more program momentum. With all that being said, Ole Miss
appears to be trending slightly up in 2012. They have 16 starters back and
hired Hugh Freeze, one of the bright young stars in college coaching. He’ll
have his work cut out for him, because as I hinted at, the schedule is not
pleasant. Their road games are with Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and LSU. Their easiest road game all
year will be at Tulane. They do get a lot of manageable home games (with the
exception of Texas), so they should exceed the two wins they had last year. The
most important thing for Ole Miss football to concentrate on is getting better
on the field and showing patience with their new coach. Canning coaches every
three-four years is not a smart way to run a program, ever.
All-SEC Team
 |
| Murray |
QB Aaron
Murray, Georgia
RB Knile
Davis, Arkansas
RB Marcus
Lattimore, South Carolina
WR Ryan
Swope, Texas A&M
WR Cobi
Hamilton, Arkansas
WR Justin
Hunter, Tennessee
TE Philip
Lutzenkirchen, Auburn
OT D. J.
Fluker, Alabama
OT Alex
Hurst, LSU
OG Alvin
Bailey, Arkansas
OG Chance
Warmack, Alabama
C Barrett
Jones, Alabama
DE Jadeveon
Clowney, South Carolina
 |
| Bostic |
DT Jesse Williams,
Alabama
DT John Jenkins, GeorgiaLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
LB Jonathan
Bostic, Florida
LB Nico
Johnson, Alabama
DB Johnathan
Banks, Mississippi State
DB Tharold
Simon, LSU
DB Bacarri
Rambo, Georgia
DB Robert
Lester, Alabama
K Caleb
Sturgis, Florida
P Brad Wing,
LSU
KR Ace
Sanders, South Carolina
Ten Players Not On this Team You Should Watch Anyway
 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham |
Zac Stacy,
RB, Vandy
Da’Rick
Rogers, WR, Tennessee
Tyler Bray,
QB, Tennessee
Keith
Marshall, RB, Georgia
Barkevious
Mingo, DE, LSU
Eric Reid,
DB, LSU
Tyler
Wilson, QB, Arkansas
Dorial
Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri
Corey
Lemonier, DE, Auburn
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