2012 NFL Preview

I'm not going to say much more than I did in my AFC and NFC pre-training camp previews. As usual, the trend has been to identify the three teams from each conference that won't make the playoffs next year. Frankly, I have a hard time seeing six teams missing the playoffs from last year's group, but that's one of the NFL's trademarks- surprise teams. In July, I predicted that the Bengals and Broncos wouldn't make the playoffs from the AFC and the Lions, Giants, and Saints would miss from the NFC. I'm not going amend that list too much- I still don't believe that the Bengals, Lions or Saints will make the playoffs. There are too many factors working against them to make the playoffs.
The Bengals are a classic case of a young team that enjoys success early and regresses in year two under the weight of expectations. The Lions are too immature and only made the playoffs in 2011 because Jay Cutler and Matt Forte got hurt. The Saints of course are dealing with a never-ending amount of distractions and have had way too much bad karma surrounding them. The NFL is all about leadership and a team that will go through three different head coaches in a calendar year will probably have consistency issues. Make no mistake, Drew Brees is great, but even he won't be able to save this team.
As for the Broncos and Giants, I began to reexamine them in light of what I saw in the preseason, namely Peyton Manning and the Cowboys' offensive line problems and health issues. The Peyton Manning effect goes without saying. It's obvious he's going to have a positive effect on the Broncos, even with his reduced physical gifts limiting what throws he can and cannot make. As for the Giants, I didn't see enough from the Cowboys to suggest to me that they are a playoff team this year. Their offensive line after Tyron Smith is horrible. Their wide receivers aren't healthy. Jason Witten has spleen problems. Miles Austin's hamstring is giving him problems again, and Dez Byrant is Dez Bryant. Dallas' defensive backfield might be better than it was in 2011, but that won't be enough.
Without further ado, my official 2012 NFL predictions.

Standings

AFC East
1. New England
2. Buffalo
3. New York Jets
4. Miami

New England, the clear class of the division, rides a pathetic schedule to the AFC's top playoff seed.
Buffalo enjoys a resurgent season, riding the new and improved pass rush to a near-playoff bid, setting the stage for a Super Bowl dark horse campaign in 2013.
The Jets crash and burn as their already pathetic passing offense suffers the effects of world-class javelin thrower Tim Tebow. Defenses stack the box with eight guys and dare Santonio Holmes to beat double coverage on every play.
Miami goes as Ryan Tannehill goes. Which means a lot of lows and some occasional highs.

AFC North
1. Baltimore
2. Pittsburgh
3. Cincinnati
4. Cleveland

Baltimore, a catch away from the Super Bowl, enters into "eff you" mode for the season, but is kept out of the AFC's top spot by their schedule and a couple of division losses.
The Steelers enjoy something of a renaissance year. Seeing the window closing on their Super Bowl chances, Ben Roethlisberger wills the Steelers to a wild-card birth and an upset of the Texans in the first round.
Cincinnati sputters to a "disappointing" 7-9 season, mostly the result of Andy Dalton's sophomore slump and a vicious second-half schedule.
Cleveland enjoys a few nice runs by Trent Richardson and a breakthrough year by Greg Little, hampered by their abysmal QB play yet again.

AFC South
1. Houston
2. Tennessee
3. Indianapolis
4. Jacksonville

Houston pounds the division into submission behind their rushing attack and the return of Matt Schaub. The defense doesn't miss Mario Williams, but their offensive line misses Eric Winston, forcing the Texans into another wild-card playoff game appearance.
Tennessee plays quarterback roulette with Jake Locker and Matt Hasselbeck. Coach Mike Munchak pulls Locker at halftime of their Week 6 game versus Pittsburgh and Hasselbeck leads the Titans to a comeback win. They enjoy a solid second half as Hasselbeck turns their under-appreciated receiving corps into one of the NFL's finest by week 12, but fall short of the playoffs due to their slow start.
Indianapolis enjoys a comeback season, as Andrew Luck proves that he is in fact the real deal, as he throws for over 4,000 yards and leads the Colts to a late-season upset win over Houston, keeping the Texans out of a bye week in the playoffs.
Maurice Jones-Drew struggles, but Blaine Gabbert improves thanks to the arrivals of Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson. Even so, it's not enough, and the Jags limp to the finish line in another disappointing season. Relocation discussion becomes serious in February, as fan interest wanes and Roger Goodell has a mini aneurysm at the thought of one of his league's teams not being a financial juggernaut.

AFC West
1. San Diego
2. Denver
3. Kansas City
4. Oakland

No Vincent Jackson, no problem. Philip Rivers has had good years with sub-standard wide receiver before. Embarrassed by his dismal performance in 2011, Rivers dominates his new AFC West rival Peyton Manning, and the Chargers coast to the division crown.
Everyone talks about Peyton Manning and ignores the fact that the Broncos' defense has only three above-average players. It turns out to be their Achilles' heel, and it costs them in a costly Week 17 loss in Kansas City to the Chiefs, who are breathing down their necks by this point.
Kansas City welcomes back Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry, only to find that the rest of the division has improved right along with them. Matt Cassel struggles and gets replaced by Ricky Stanzi in the 2nd half of the season.
The Raiders run Darren McFadden into the ground. He has over 1,200 yards rushing in their first ten games, but tears a hamstring in a blowout loss to the Ravens. This time, the Raiders can't bring Michael Bush off the bench to replace him and instead have to rely on Carson Palmer to win games by himself, a skill he doesn't have anymore.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia
2. New York Giants
3. Dallas
4. Washington

After a horrible 2011, the Eagles come out on top in the NFC East, riding what figures to be Mike Vick's last semi-healthy year in the NFL.
The Giants struggle with the Eagles, but beat the crap out of everyone else in the division. Eli Manning doesn't come close to 5,000 yards again as rookie RB David Wilson steals the show and gives the G-men some balance on offense.
How long does Tony Romo last? Is there an over/under in Vegas on the number of healthy games Romo plays this year? (Take the under, always.) That offensive line is awful.
Robert Griffin arrives to bring some hope to Washington, but also proves along the way that Cam Newton comparisons are unfair, as he fails to top the 6 wins, 4,000 passing yards, or 14 rushing TDs Cam had in 2011.

NFC North
1. Chicago
2. Green Bay
3. Detroit
4. Minnesota

Realizing this is one of the last good years Brian Urlacher has left, the Bears play their butts off all year. New offensive coordinator Mike Tice does what Mike Martz never did, and keeps Jay Cutler healthy, upright and confident all year. Brandon Marshall terrorizes NFC North secondaries all year, and he single-handedly beats the Packers in their week 15 game in Chicago.
Green Bay's lack of offensive balance, weak left side of their offensive line prove, and lack of pass rush come back to bite them again in 2012, except much earlier than it did in 2011. Rodgers' numbers slightly come down and Cheeseheads everywhere wonder what happened to Clay Matthews as he rides another year of constant double teams to a second straight year with fewer than 10 sacks.
The Lions' offense falls victim to the Madden curse, as Calvin Johnson's early-career back problems resurface, slowing down Matthew Stafford and company. Ndamukong Suh gets a 4-game suspension when he tries to rip Alex Smith's head off in the Lions week 2 game at San Francisco...better known as "Handshake Bowl II."
Minnesotans enjoy a mixed bag of emotions in 2012. Christian Ponder noticeably improves, but Adrian Peterson slows down considerably, causing many to wonder just how they should feel about the Vikings. Should they be happy if their QB improves but their best offensive player regresses substantially.

NFC South
1. Atlanta
2. Carolina
3. New Orleans
4. Tampa Bay

Atlanta takes advantage of the problems in New Orleans and wins the division for the second time in three years. Even so, the Falcons get bounced in the first round of the playoffs....again.
Cam Newton shows that 2011 was no fluke, as his improved passing and constant rushing threat make the Panthers into one of the NFL's most feared offenses in 2012. Offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski gets multiple head coaching offers in the offseason. Carolina's record improves for a second straight year, but not enough to get into the playoffs.
Like I said earlier, the bad karma in New Orleans hampers the Saints' chances in 2011. More tangibly, their woeful defense hampers them.
Tampa Bay improves, but not in the wins department.

NFC West 
1. San Francisco
2. Seattle
3. St. Louis
4. Arizona

The 49ers regress a little, but Jim Harbaugh keeps the good times rolling as they win the division again. Harbaugh sends thank-you notes to Pete Carroll and Ken Whisenhunt for rendering the 49ers' two biggest threats toothless, thanks to boneheaded QB decisions.
Despite the buzz surrounding the emergence of Russell Wilson, Seattle is still miles behind the 49ers, talent-wise.
A team that could surprise, the Rams will likely knock off one or two teams they shouldn't. Jeff Fisher will prove to be a good hire as the year goes along in St. Louis.
Nothing to see here folks. Despite having two of the NFL's most physically gifted players in Larry Fitzgerald and Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals didn't have the staying power to stay atop the division, even after their playoff runs from three years ago. That might be a boost to Kurt Warner's HoF chances.

Playoff Predictions

AFC
Wild Card Round
6 Pittsburgh over 3 Houston
4 San Diego over 5 Denver

Divisional Round
1 New England over 6 Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore over 4 San Diego

AFC Championship Game
New England over Baltimore

NFC
Wild Card Round
3 Philadelphia over 6 New York
5 Green Bay over 4 Atlanta
Divisional Round
1 Chicago over 3 Philadelphia
2 San Francisco over 5 Green Bay

NFC Championship Game
San Francisco over Chicago

Super Bowl XLVII

San Francisco over New England

What We Learned, Week 1

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt

1. South Carolina is a fragile team. I like their defense, especially that defensive line. But they are so dependent on the read option running game with Connor Shaw and Marcus Lattimore that they will be dead ducks if Shaw goes down. Glad to see Lattimore looks like he's healthy after ACL surgery. He made some moves that looked like the Lattimore of old. Good for him.

2. Vandy still has work to do. I was impressed that Jordan Rodgers looked as comfortable as he did, because 2011 was a bit of a struggle for him. I doubt that he has the same talent that his older brother (some guy named Aaron) does or that he'll be a NFL QB, but he can be useful for the Commodores. Plus, their backfield is loaded. Zac Stacy looked really good and they still have Warren Norman and highly-touted freshman Brian Kimbrow in the backfield. 

Boise State vs. Michigan State

1. Is it too early to put Le'Veon Bell in the Heisman discussion? He might not be as talented as some other college runners like Montee Ball or Marcus Lattimore, but if he gets 40 carries a game, he will blow by those guys' numbers easily. He reminds me of a hybrid of Eddie George and Ron Dayne, the first two guys I think of when I think of Big Ten workhorse running backs.

2. I'd give Andrew Maxwell a game grade of "E" for "EWWWWWWWWWWWWW." If Sparty wants to go the Rose Bowl, they'll need a lot better effort than that from him.

3. Like Rod Gilmore of ESPN said after the game, you can cross the Broncos off the BCS Buster list. The best team they play for the rest of the year is BYU. Though the Cougars looked good during a thrashing of Washington State, one win against BYU probably won't be enough to push the Broncos to the top of the polls this year. To their credit, the Broncos showed up and out-played Michigan State for most of the game. Chris Petersen is a boss and a legitimate top-3 coach in all of college football. He's right up there with Nick Saban. 

SJSU vs. Stanford

1. This version of the Cardinal will play like their teams of the past couple years, but they aren't nearly as good. That's obvious, but I was one of the few who didn't think they wouldn't miss a step. It's hard for me to figure out how SJSU stuck around with Stanford. 

Notre Dame vs. Navy

1. This is Notre Dame's deepest backfield they've had in quite some time. Even though starter Cierre Wood was left home for a violation of team rules, the Fighting Irish still managed to ring up 293 yards rushing and 50 points on Navy. A great deal of credit obviously should go to the Irish offensive line, who punished Navy's small defensive front all game long. Theo Riddick looks much more comfortable as a RB than he ever did as a WR. It'll be interesting to see how they divvy up the carries when Wood returns. Also, kudos to Brian Kelly for not being pigheaded when it came to his preferred spread attack. He knows Notre Dame's best offensive units are their RBs, offensive line, and tight end. He realizes that ND probably doesn't have an impact QB, so he did what the Irish are good at. Gives them a glimmer of hope that they might be able to exploit better teams on their schedule like Oklahoma and USC by punishing them on the ground. They will need a lot of growth from Everett Golson. I wasn't thrilled with his performance today. Some good, some bad. A conservative, vanilla game plan for him, though. If ND has intentions of beating Oklahoma and USC, among others, they will need a lot more from Golson.

2. New Navy QB Trey Miller is a stronger passer than the Midshipmen are used to having. Like Gary Danielson said, he'll learn the option in time. It takes time to master the option. But it's good news for Navy that they have a weapon at QB and that they can threaten teams with the passing game.

Marshall vs. West Virginia

1. West Virginia's offense is really good. As in really, really, really good. As in "might be better than the 2008 Oklahoma Sooners offense" good. They picked up right where they left off in the Orange Bowl, ringing up 69 points, 341 yards passing and weirdly, 314 yards rushing. The main criticism, if any, of Dana Holgorsen's offense has been its over-reliance on the passing game. If the Mountaineers have that kind of balance all year long, you can safely pencil them in for an all-time great offensive season. Geno Smith, consider yourself officially in the top three of Heisman candidates. Any QB who goes 33 of 37 for 340 yards and 4 TD's and backs that up with another 65 yards rushing on 8 carries and another score deserves serious consideration. I don't care if it's week 1. That's seriously high-end performance.

Miami (Oh.) vs. Ohio State

1. What a difference a year makes. Although the caliber of competition wasn't all that spectacular, game one of the Urban Meyer era at Ohio State couldn't have gone any better. Despite a sluggish first quarter, a 35-0 run engineered by Braxton Miller (207 yards, 2 TD's, 0 INT's, 161 yards rushing and a TD) paved the way for an easy Ohio State win. The secondary made a couple of costly errors and figures to be a work in progress for the duration of the season.

2. Miami is nothing special as a football team, but Nick Harwell absolutely deserves your respect and a measure of attention. He's a legitimate future NFL wide receiver.

Ohio vs. Penn State

1. In what will likely go down as the most memorable game of the day, the first surprise of the season went down as Frank Solich's crew won a big game, paving the way for them to possibly run the table all the way to the BCS. Don't believe me? Look at their schedule. It's possible. 

2. Right after the game ended, the ESPN cameras focused on Bill O'Brien and he had a look on his face of total dejection. You really had to feel for the guy, especially when Tom Rinaldi is right in his business right after the game asking him dumb reporter questions. I'm getting really sick of ESPN's obsessive reporting. It seems all they want to do is find one story per sport and assign a reporter to basically stalk someone for the rest for a while. Whether it's Tim Tebow, Jeremy Lin, or this Penn State fiasco, I'm sick of it. They should have spoken to the winning team and left O'Brien to handle his business and speak to his team. Shame on the worldwide leader. 

More WWL coming up after the afternoon and evening games conclude.