The Bengals are a classic case of a young team that enjoys success early and regresses in year two under the weight of expectations. The Lions are too immature and only made the playoffs in 2011 because Jay Cutler and Matt Forte got hurt. The Saints of course are dealing with a never-ending amount of distractions and have had way too much bad karma surrounding them. The NFL is all about leadership and a team that will go through three different head coaches in a calendar year will probably have consistency issues. Make no mistake, Drew Brees is great, but even he won't be able to save this team.
As for the Broncos and Giants, I began to reexamine them in light of what I saw in the preseason, namely Peyton Manning and the Cowboys' offensive line problems and health issues. The Peyton Manning effect goes without saying. It's obvious he's going to have a positive effect on the Broncos, even with his reduced physical gifts limiting what throws he can and cannot make. As for the Giants, I didn't see enough from the Cowboys to suggest to me that they are a playoff team this year. Their offensive line after Tyron Smith is horrible. Their wide receivers aren't healthy. Jason Witten has spleen problems. Miles Austin's hamstring is giving him problems again, and Dez Byrant is Dez Bryant. Dallas' defensive backfield might be better than it was in 2011, but that won't be enough.
Without further ado, my official 2012 NFL predictions.
Standings
AFC East
1. New England
2. Buffalo
3. New York Jets
4. Miami
New England, the clear class of the division, rides a pathetic schedule to the AFC's top playoff seed.
Buffalo enjoys a resurgent season, riding the new and improved pass rush to a near-playoff bid, setting the stage for a Super Bowl dark horse campaign in 2013.
The Jets crash and burn as their already pathetic passing offense suffers the effects of world-class javelin thrower Tim Tebow. Defenses stack the box with eight guys and dare Santonio Holmes to beat double coverage on every play.
Miami goes as Ryan Tannehill goes. Which means a lot of lows and some occasional highs.
AFC North
1. Baltimore
2. Pittsburgh
3. Cincinnati
4. Cleveland
Baltimore, a catch away from the Super Bowl, enters into "eff you" mode for the season, but is kept out of the AFC's top spot by their schedule and a couple of division losses.
The Steelers enjoy something of a renaissance year. Seeing the window closing on their Super Bowl chances, Ben Roethlisberger wills the Steelers to a wild-card birth and an upset of the Texans in the first round.
Cincinnati sputters to a "disappointing" 7-9 season, mostly the result of Andy Dalton's sophomore slump and a vicious second-half schedule.
Cleveland enjoys a few nice runs by Trent Richardson and a breakthrough year by Greg Little, hampered by their abysmal QB play yet again.
AFC South
1. Houston
2. Tennessee
3. Indianapolis
4. Jacksonville
Houston pounds the division into submission behind their rushing attack and the return of Matt Schaub. The defense doesn't miss Mario Williams, but their offensive line misses Eric Winston, forcing the Texans into another wild-card playoff game appearance.
Tennessee plays quarterback roulette with Jake Locker and Matt Hasselbeck. Coach Mike Munchak pulls Locker at halftime of their Week 6 game versus Pittsburgh and Hasselbeck leads the Titans to a comeback win. They enjoy a solid second half as Hasselbeck turns their under-appreciated receiving corps into one of the NFL's finest by week 12, but fall short of the playoffs due to their slow start.
Indianapolis enjoys a comeback season, as Andrew Luck proves that he is in fact the real deal, as he throws for over 4,000 yards and leads the Colts to a late-season upset win over Houston, keeping the Texans out of a bye week in the playoffs.
Maurice Jones-Drew struggles, but Blaine Gabbert improves thanks to the arrivals of Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson. Even so, it's not enough, and the Jags limp to the finish line in another disappointing season. Relocation discussion becomes serious in February, as fan interest wanes and Roger Goodell has a mini aneurysm at the thought of one of his league's teams not being a financial juggernaut.
AFC West
1. San Diego
2. Denver
3. Kansas City
4. Oakland
No Vincent Jackson, no problem. Philip Rivers has had good years with sub-standard wide receiver before. Embarrassed by his dismal performance in 2011, Rivers dominates his new AFC West rival Peyton Manning, and the Chargers coast to the division crown.
Everyone talks about Peyton Manning and ignores the fact that the Broncos' defense has only three above-average players. It turns out to be their Achilles' heel, and it costs them in a costly Week 17 loss in Kansas City to the Chiefs, who are breathing down their necks by this point.
Kansas City welcomes back Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry, only to find that the rest of the division has improved right along with them. Matt Cassel struggles and gets replaced by Ricky Stanzi in the 2nd half of the season.
The Raiders run Darren McFadden into the ground. He has over 1,200 yards rushing in their first ten games, but tears a hamstring in a blowout loss to the Ravens. This time, the Raiders can't bring Michael Bush off the bench to replace him and instead have to rely on Carson Palmer to win games by himself, a skill he doesn't have anymore.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia
2. New York Giants
3. Dallas
4. Washington
After a horrible 2011, the Eagles come out on top in the NFC East, riding what figures to be Mike Vick's last semi-healthy year in the NFL.
The Giants struggle with the Eagles, but beat the crap out of everyone else in the division. Eli Manning doesn't come close to 5,000 yards again as rookie RB David Wilson steals the show and gives the G-men some balance on offense.
How long does Tony Romo last? Is there an over/under in Vegas on the number of healthy games Romo plays this year? (Take the under, always.) That offensive line is awful.
Robert Griffin arrives to bring some hope to Washington, but also proves along the way that Cam Newton comparisons are unfair, as he fails to top the 6 wins, 4,000 passing yards, or 14 rushing TDs Cam had in 2011.
NFC North
1. Chicago
2. Green Bay
3. Detroit
4. Minnesota
Realizing this is one of the last good years Brian Urlacher has left, the Bears play their butts off all year. New offensive coordinator Mike Tice does what Mike Martz never did, and keeps Jay Cutler healthy, upright and confident all year. Brandon Marshall terrorizes NFC North secondaries all year, and he single-handedly beats the Packers in their week 15 game in Chicago.
Green Bay's lack of offensive balance, weak left side of their offensive line prove, and lack of pass rush come back to bite them again in 2012, except much earlier than it did in 2011. Rodgers' numbers slightly come down and Cheeseheads everywhere wonder what happened to Clay Matthews as he rides another year of constant double teams to a second straight year with fewer than 10 sacks.
The Lions' offense falls victim to the Madden curse, as Calvin Johnson's early-career back problems resurface, slowing down Matthew Stafford and company. Ndamukong Suh gets a 4-game suspension when he tries to rip Alex Smith's head off in the Lions week 2 game at San Francisco...better known as "Handshake Bowl II."
Minnesotans enjoy a mixed bag of emotions in 2012. Christian Ponder noticeably improves, but Adrian Peterson slows down considerably, causing many to wonder just how they should feel about the Vikings. Should they be happy if their QB improves but their best offensive player regresses substantially.
NFC South
1. Atlanta
2. Carolina
3. New Orleans
4. Tampa Bay
Atlanta takes advantage of the problems in New Orleans and wins the division for the second time in three years. Even so, the Falcons get bounced in the first round of the playoffs....again.
Cam Newton shows that 2011 was no fluke, as his improved passing and constant rushing threat make the Panthers into one of the NFL's most feared offenses in 2012. Offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski gets multiple head coaching offers in the offseason. Carolina's record improves for a second straight year, but not enough to get into the playoffs.
Like I said earlier, the bad karma in New Orleans hampers the Saints' chances in 2011. More tangibly, their woeful defense hampers them.
Tampa Bay improves, but not in the wins department.
NFC West
1. San Francisco
2. Seattle
3. St. Louis
4. Arizona
The 49ers regress a little, but Jim Harbaugh keeps the good times rolling as they win the division again. Harbaugh sends thank-you notes to Pete Carroll and Ken Whisenhunt for rendering the 49ers' two biggest threats toothless, thanks to boneheaded QB decisions.
Despite the buzz surrounding the emergence of Russell Wilson, Seattle is still miles behind the 49ers, talent-wise.
A team that could surprise, the Rams will likely knock off one or two teams they shouldn't. Jeff Fisher will prove to be a good hire as the year goes along in St. Louis.
Nothing to see here folks. Despite having two of the NFL's most physically gifted players in Larry Fitzgerald and Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals didn't have the staying power to stay atop the division, even after their playoff runs from three years ago. That might be a boost to Kurt Warner's HoF chances.
Playoff Predictions
AFC
Wild Card Round
6 Pittsburgh over 3 Houston
4 San Diego over 5 Denver
Divisional Round
1 New England over 6 Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore over 4 San Diego
AFC Championship Game
New England over Baltimore
NFC
Wild Card Round
3 Philadelphia over 6 New York
5 Green Bay over 4 Atlanta
Divisional Round
1 Chicago over 3 Philadelphia
2 San Francisco over 5 Green Bay
NFC Championship Game
San Francisco over Chicago
Super Bowl XLVII
San Francisco over New England
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