Weighing the Legitimacy of the BCS Contenders

To start off today's post, I must first issue an apology for my lengthy delay between posts. My weekends have been rather busy, which interrupts my football viewing. However, it's not all bad news- on October 27, I will be coming to you live from Norman, Oklahoma, where I will take in the highly anticipated Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma game (and more than a few steaks, ribs, and fried chicken sandwiches).
Back to business. Today's post will weigh the pros, cons, and x-factors for each of the Top 5 BCS teams, plus the other half-dozen teams with legitimate chances at winning the national championship. The current BCS top 5 is Alabama, Florida, Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame.
Let's start with the Crimson Tide.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0)
BCS Average: .9761

To no one's surprise, the Tide rolled in at the top of the inaugural 2012 BCS standings. Despite a somewhat pedestrian schedule, this is where they belong. After starting the year with a dominant win over Michigan in the Kickoff Classic in Cowboys Stadium, Alabama proceeded to annihilate their next five opponents by an aggregate score of 202-31. Even after the departures Alabama suffered last summer, the Tide has ridden their dominant offensive line and newly improved QB A.J. McCarron to their usual lofty heights. It's gotten to the point with McCarron that I think it's fair to say he's the best quarterback Nick Saban has ever coached in college. His development, coupled with the usual impressive Saban defense and special teams has kept the Tide in college football's pole position. They don't get style points for their workmanlike method of winning games, but they get the job done. It does need to be noted that after the Michigan win, none of those wins came against currently-ranked teams, but the luxury of playing in the SEC guarantees Alabama a chance to gain their fair share of impressive wins. Alabama's upcoming schedule features dates with Mississippi State, LSU, and Texas A&M, plus their SEC Championship game opponent, provided they sidestep each of those landmines. With the SEC East so improved, it won't matter who Alabama plays in the SEC Championship provided it's one of Florida, South Carolina or Georgia.

Future prognosis: As an undefeated, they control their destiny and their .700 point edge in the BCS standings over 2nd-place Florida gives them a degree of wiggle room. I fully expect to see the Crimson Tide in Miami in January.
2nd Half X-factor: Amari Cooper, WR - I've given some love to A.J. McCarron but for him to continue his strong season, he'll need contributions from Cooper, who has stepped up nicely while Alabama dealt with injuries on offense. It's weird to be even having this discussion, but some are still debating what Alabama's offensive identity is. Even with McCarron playing so well, they're still a smashmouth team, but they'll need contributions from the receiving corps.

2. Florida Gators (6-0)
BCS Average: .9092

I have to give it up to Phil Steele- he nailed the Gators in his preseason preview magazine. The Gators once again sit atop the SEC East despite the hellish mess the Gators had at quarterback in July. Since then, the situation has resolved itself as Jeff Driskell took the reigns and ran with them. His play, coupled with the arrival of Mike Gillislee as a legitimate All-SEC caliber running back has turned the toothless Gators offense of 2011 into a mean, rugged offense hell-bent on beating the piss out of their opponents. As for the Gators defense, no one is surprised that a unit compromised of the leftovers of Urban Meyer's last binge of 4- and 5-star recruits has morphed in LSU East under Will Muschamp. Add the two up and you have one stupid blogger who picked the Gators to win 8 games.
The best news that Gators fans could hear is that they're done travelling this year. That's right- the Gators don't have a single game outside the state of Florida. The schedule is even harder than Alabama's- after a home date with the Ol' Ball Coach, the Gators get to play Georgia. Their last game is their annual tilt with Florida State- a game that won't matter in the SEC but could decide who ends up in the 2nd or 3rd place in the final BCS standings.

Future Prognosis: Just like Alabama, Florida controls its destiny. However, their schedule is devastating. I expect at least two losses by the end of the year for Florida- one courtesy of their SEC brethren (good luck figuring out who) and another from either FSU or their SEC championship game opponent.
2nd Half X-factor: Andre Debose, WR/KR - Yes, it seems like Debose has been in Gainesville since 2005, but he's still there. With Florida's passing game still a work in progress, they need another wideout to step up. Debose has the speed and quickness to make plays, and they'll need him even more down the stretch.

3. Oregon Ducks (6-0)
BCS Average: .8993

No, that loud noise you heard on Saturday wasn't a tanker full of SEC Kool-Aid driving through a flock of ducks- it was Duck fans everywhere spluttering in disbelief as they saw Oregon slide into the BCS at #3, easily the biggest surprise of these first rankings. Oregon has been exactly what we expected this year- great on offense and improved on defense. Despite this, the Ducks came in at third thanks to a schedule even more pitiful than Alabama's. They have made mincemeat of that schedule, to be sure, but their schedule is about to get a lot more difficult. 

Future Prognosis: I hate to keep repeating myself, but the Ducks control their own destiny. Two games with USC won't be fun or easy for the Ducks, even with USC's offensive line struggles and less-than-imposing defensive front seven.

2nd Half X-factor: Marcus Mariota, QB -  It has to be Mariota, right? He's never been tested on the road, so it's anybody's guess how he reacts during Oregon's upcoming road schedule, especially at USC.

4. Kansas State Wildcats (6-0)
BCS Average: .8963

The Wildcats are the rare Big XII team that still plays defense, a testament to the genius that is head coach Bill Snyder's calling card. I know that Nick Saban is considered the consensus best coach in college football, but give me Snyder. Saban has won big at LSU and Alabama....not exactly Manhattan, Kansas. I love people who can make chicken salad out of chicken shit and that's exactly what Snyder has done throughout both of his tenures at KSU. Lots of folks, yours truly included, had the Wildcats pegged for a regression after the 2011 season featured a plethora of close wins. That hasn't turned out to be the case, as the KSU gravy train has kept rolling for Collin Klein and co. Just like the other three teams ranked ahead of them, the schedule is about to get a lot more difficult. It's worth noting that KSU got their toughest game out of the way early, winning at Oklahoma. 

Future Prognosis: Kansas State controls their own destiny to a degree, but unlike Alabama and LSU, they can't afford a loss. Also, they don't have a conference championship game to pad their resumes with, either. KSU will be walking the straight-and-narrow for the rest of the year. 

2nd Half X-factor: Nigel Malone, CB - Malone was one of the Big XII's best corners last year but his production has dropped off a little bit in 2012. Considering that KSU's future schedule includes dates with the passing offenses of West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor in the NEXT FIVE weeks, the Wildcats will need him to step up in a big way to stay alive in the BCS hunt.

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-0)
BCS Average: .8774

As the runaway winner of the award for "most hyped" story of the 2012 college football season, the Irish are back....or are they? I confess myself surprised at Notre Dame's resurgence this year. Coach Brian Kelly deserves a lot of credit for adapting his offense from the pass-heavy spread he ran at Cincinnati into a power rushing attack. Even more impressive is that he's managed to do so while juggling a freshman at QB with Tommy Rees. It's the weirdest QB committee I've ever seen- Everett Golson usually starts, but Kelly has no qualms about throwing Rees in if Golson has any issues at all. Making it even weirder is the efficiency of Rees when he has come in. This is not your older brother's QB combo (like the 2007 LSU duo of Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux), but it has been effective. 

Speaking of effective, no 2012 Notre Dame discussion would be complete without a mention of their SEC-worthy defense. LB Manti Te'o has been a force and will run away with a lot of postseason hardware. The Irish defensive line has been dominant, with defensive linemen Stephon Tuitt, Kapron Lewis-Moore and Louis Nix occupying blockers and freeing up ND's linebackers to make plays.

Future Prognosis: Not great. Despite the fact that Notre Dame has four winnable games left on its schedule, it must also travel to Oklahoma and USC for games against the only two teams on its schedule that can challenge their secondary, which has been the weakest part of an otherwise stingy defense. Going 1-1 on the road against OU and USC would be hard for Alabama, let alone a team playing QB roulette. Even so, finishing 4-2 will put the Irish in the BCS.

2nd Half X-factor: The secondary - If the Irish are to get by their final two landmines, they will need massive contributions from their secondary to slow down Oklahoma's and USC's bevies of talented wideouts. Both teams run 4-deep at WR, so the Irish will need a comprehensive effort from their defensive backfields to pull off both games.