As you have no doubt heard, the Yankees' season is over. While this is less of a surprise than my original MLB predictions would have led one to believe, this may turn out to be Pyrrhic victory for the AL. Yes, the Yankees are dead and buried for 2012, but the Tigers series surely had to inform the Yankees of their present issues- issues they will no doubt address going into Spring Training.
Who's Gone
Like a lot of teams, the Yankees have a number of players who are not going to be back. That list as of this moment is as follows:
1. Russell Martin
2. Eric Chavez
3. Raul Ibanez
4. Andruw Jones
5. Jayson Nix
6. Ichiro Suzuki
7. Chris Stewart
8. Casey McGehee
9. Freddy Garcia
10. Rafael Soriano (player option)
11. Clay Rapada
12. Derek Lowe
13. Hiroki Kuroda
14. Nick Swisher
15. Andy Pettitte
Wow. Obviously there are a few big names on here- of these, I expect Jones, Chavez, McGehee, Stewart, Garcia, Soriano, Rapada, Lowe, and Swisher to be near-locks to leave the Bronx for greener pastures after the season. That's mostly well-and-good for the Yankees. They might have some big names, but most of these guys are easily replaceable players.
The interesting cases in here are Soriano, Kuroda, Ichiro, and Pettitte. Soriano has an opt-out clause that he will most likely use in an attempt to find bigger dollars somewhere else. Kuroda, Pettitte, and Ichiro all had one-year deals. Pettitte has indicated a desire to return again, and the Yankees would be foolish not to take him up on that offer. Kuroda is an interesting topic- he was the Yankees' most consistent pitcher all season and had a fine year and even better postseason. If the Yankees can bring him back at a similar rate for another year, they should try that. There's always the odd chance he'd leave, but I expect the Yankees to put the full-court press on to bring him back. If they can bring Pettitte along for the ride, the Yankees' rotation will again be one of baseball's best. (If this scenario occurs, expect a rotation of CC Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, and 2012 injury casualty Michael Pineda.)
(I'll get to Ichiro in a bit.)
Three names weren't on the above list that need to be brought up, as their roster spots aren't locks. The first and most-discussed will be Alex Rodriguez. After yet another atrocious and embarrassing postseason for the former MVP third baseman, the Yankees would be well-served to seek possible alternatives to him in the offseason. If they feel the need to unload A-Rod's behemoth of a contract ($28M a year for the next five years), they will do so only by eating a substantial chunk of the contract- around 80-90% of the remaining salary and finding a willing trade partner. If I were Brian Cashman (and today I am thankful I am not), I'd seek every possible opportunity to dump A-Rod on another team.
The second name not mentioned but whose spot in the Yankees' roster is potentially up for grabs is Curtis Granderson, who had a postseason that could only be described as a left-handed version of Alex Rodriguez's. Granderson has been a solid player for the Yankees since they acquired him from the Tigers a few years ago, but it's hard not to think he's peaked as a hitter and ballplayer. I'd put the chances of Granderson not returning at around 40%.
Lastly, the only question not being mentioned on a national scale is the Mariano Rivera question- will he come back? If so, how effective will he be? For the record, Mo has indicated that he intends to return to the Yankees next spring.
The Replacements
Considering all the offensive productivity the Yankees would need to replace under the above scenario and the Steinbrenner's professed intent to get payroll to $189M while simultaneously competing for the World Series every year, this will be one of the most difficult and challenging offseasons of Cashman's career. He will need to find players to fill in at two of the Yankees' outfield positions, third base, catcher, and find another couple of good bullpen arms to supplement Rivera and David Robertson. Also, he'd need to retool the Yankees' bench. Going under this scenario, here's how the Yankees' 25-man lineup and pitching staff in 2013 projects
C ???
1B Mark Teixeira
2B Robinson Cano (expect the Yankees to exercise their option on him)
3B ???
SS Derek Jeter
LF Brett Gardner
CF ???
RF ???
DH ???
Bench
Raul Ibanez (expecting him back after his postseason)
Eduardo Nunez
Rotation
Starters:
CC Sabathia
Hiroki Kuroda
Andy Pettitte
Phil Hughes
Ivan Nova
Michael Pineda
Bullpen:
Mariano Rivera
David Robertson
Boone Logan
Joba Chamberlain
I expect the Yankees to carry 14 position players and 11 pitchers. Considering that 10 of the 11 pitching spots aren't open, I'll let that sort itself out. Most likely, an in-house candidate like Pedro Feliciano or David Aardsma will present himself as a worthy addition to the bullpen, as will the odd man out of the rotation, whether it's Hughes, Nova, or Pineda.
The lineup is another question entirely. If the Yankees follow my plan, they will be looking at trying to fill holes at four positions and designated hitter, plus three other bench spots for a whopping total of eight open positions. The smart money may be on the Yankees to bring back Granderson, but it's a move I thoroughly disagree with. Much of 2012 and especially October should have proven to the Yankees how badly a home run dependent offense becomes when it is forced to deal with elite pitching. Knowing this and that Granderson isn't good enough at getting on base to utilize his above average speed to manufacture runs, why bring him back? They'd be better off building around a couple of sluggers (Teixeira and Cano) while emphasizing their speed with Gardner. This is where Ichiro steps in. He had a fine second half with the club and hit somewhat well in the playoffs (comparatively speaking). His veteran presence in a locker room that might be a lot younger next year will be important, as will his still-reliable bat and decent speed. Pair him with a healthy Gardner and the Yankees' outfield would combine for over 70 stolen bases, easily. With Ichiro back on a short deal (that's the key to this), the Yankees would be left trying to fill third base, catcher, and centerfield.
The hottest name on the market, and one who also fits the Yankees' needs for power in the outfield while being a more well-rounded play is of course Josh Hamilton. The only way he comes to New York is if the Yankees can get him a fair price ($18-21M) and for an appropriate number of years (anywhere from two to four). Hamilton is likely to want at least a nine-figure contract, which would likely price him out of the Yankees' plans. It's hard to imagine how devastating Hamilton would be in Yankee Stadium for 81 games a year. It's also equally hard to figure out how he'd handle his off-field demons in a city like New York. It makes for a fascinating risk-reward discussion.
If the Yankees don't like the price of Hamilton, they could turn their attention to players like B.J. Upton and Shane Victorino, both of whom don't carry the demons that Hamilton has and also would balance out New York's lefty-heavy lineup with their right-handed bats. Upton will be 28 next year, but the addition of an outfielder capable of 20 homers, 40 steals, and above average defense at a rate cheaper than Hamilton would be well worth looking into. Hamilton would be better earlier in his deal than Upton, but Upton holds more long-term value and less baggage, making him the smarter add. The Yankees could pursue a trade, but given their farm system's lack of depth, pulling off a blockbuster might cost too much in terms of player capital. They'd be better served proceeding with a free agent, who would only cost the Yankees money.
With their outfield filled, the Yankees would be left to resolve their issues at third base and catcher. With Martin most likely out of the picture, the Yankees could go internal with their top catching prospect, Austin Romine. Asking a young catcher to handle a pitching staff with as many veterans as the Yankees' would be a cause for concern, but he'd also be cheaper and by most accounts, is basically a finished project as a minor leaguer.
With every position except third base filled, the Yankees would have to focus their attention there. The Yankees could opt for a platoon, as they did early in 2009 when A-Rod had hip surgery and was unavailable for the first weeks of the season. This time around, the Yankees would have no prospect of A-Rod, so they'd have to find guys they could play there all year. After looking at the free agent options, one name sticks out to me as a nice fit- Kevin Youkilis. While not the same player he once was, Youk's right handed bat, still-decent batting eye, and ability to play either corner infield position would give the Yankees versatility and the ability to rest Teixeira more often in 2013. With the White Sox unlikely to pick up a $13M option on a 33-year old third baseman like Youkilis, the odds are good that Youkilis might have a chance to end up in the Bronx. (I'd even bet he'd love the chance to stick it to the Red Sox 18 times a year.)
After all that, where does that leave the Yankees' lineup? Let's take a look.
SS Derek Jeter (R)
CF B.J. Upton (R)
2B Cano (L)
1B Teixeira (S)
3B Youkilis (R)
DH Ibanez (L)
RF Ichiro (L)
C Austin Romine (R)
LF Brett Gardner (L)
It's a little short on power, but what the Yankees would lack in home run ability, they'd make up for with defense, run creation and pitching. It's also hard to figure out where to place Upton and Ichiro in the order. Knowing that Cashman will supplement the bench with three more useful players after Nunez and that he would add one or two more pitchers for their bullpen, it would appear the Yankees would be on their way to an offense better suited to October baseball.
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