With the demise of Alabama already written in stone for all of history to see, as well as the removal of Louisville from the ranks of the unbeatens. We are left with four undefeated teams. Oregon, K-State, and Notre Dame all avoided the deathtrap that Alabama fell in, while the fourth, Ohio State, did not play this weekend. We'll get to the Buckeyes in a moment, but for now, I want to talk about the candidacy of the top three.
1. Kansas State
I must confess myself legitimately surprised by KSU this year. I thought they would do well, win around 9 games and go to a decent bowl game. I didn't account for the effects that leadership the caliber of Bill Snyder, Collin Klein, and MLB Arthur Brown has on football teams. I forgot what I saw in 2011, in short. What I saw in 2011 was a team that played sound, disciplined, and mostly error-free football. I saw a team that doesn't kill itself. I was flat-out wrong when I picked them for sixth in the Big XII. Definitely not proud of that. Other than the reasons I already listed, Kansas State is about as Midwestern as it gets- not flashy, not spectacular, and definitely not terribly interesting. Despite a passing offense that ranks 87th in the nation, the Wildcats are still putting up well over 40 points a game. With games against Baylor and Texas left, the road to Miami is not without its potholes, but given the way KSU has played this year and historically under Snyder, it's hard for me to believe that they'll lose either game. With their impressive resume, they will assuredly be in the BCS Championship Game over Notre Dame, provided the Ducks can take care of their end of the bargain. Of the three undefeateds, K-State is the most balanced team and offers the best challenge to either Notre Dame or Oregon.Key Game: at West Virginia
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In a game that pitted the top QB's in the Big XII, K-State left no doubt as to who the consensus best team in the Big XII was, battering the Mountaineers to the tune of 55-14. This game especially sticks out because you can see just how brutally efficient KSU was in putting the Mountaineers right behind the 8-ball. The other major point that this game shows is that KSU is more than capable of handling an aggressive, no-huddle offense. (Looking at you, Oregon)
2. Oregon
Once Alabama lost, the Ducks immediately assumed the mantle of the "best team in America." They didn't disappoint, dropping a 59-spot at Cal. The win was as important as every other win in college football is, but the big revelation was the showing by Marcus Mariota who officially alleviated concerns the Ducks or their fans may have had about their ability to pass, as he dropped 377 yards and 6 TD's on the hapless Bears. This has been the best team in the history of Oregon football and their spot in the BCS title game is protected, especially if they take care of Stanford, Oregon State, and likely UCLA in the Pac-12 Championship Game.As the flashiest, prettiest, and most "expected" of the top three BCS teams, the Ducks have the most pressure on them, but they've gotten used to it and Chip Kelly is cementing his place as one of the sharpest minds in the business. Though they've given up more than 20 points a game on defense, this is still one of the most complete teams in the country. With likely no SEC team on the horizon, Oregon's path to a BCS title as wide-open as it has ever been.
Key Game: at USC
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3. Notre Dame
If I was legitimately surprised about K-State, color me absolutely stunned about Notre Dame. I had them pegged for a good-but-not-great 8-win season and I fully expected them to keep the Charlie Weis-inspired tradition of losing at least four times a year going. After the Irish dismantled Oklahoma (a game I saw in person), I fully bought in on the Irish as a legitimate contender, albeit with one caveat- the Irish aren't as good as KSU or Oregon. Not only will Notre Dame need to win out, they need someone to take down the Ducks and Wildcats. Of course, even if this happens, the window is still open for Notre Dame to get passed in the BCS by a one-loss Alabama or Georgia, whoever wins the SEC Championship Game.Consider- let's pretend Kansas State loses at home to Texas on December 1, while Oregon wins out. That leaves the Ducks and Irish as #1 and #2. (We're assuming Notre Dame wins out, too.) Meanwhile, Alabama blows out Western Carolina, Auburn, and beats BCS #5 team Georgia like a drum on December 1. This leaves the voters with a choice- do they take Kansas State, who has the most good wins out of these three but just lost to Texas? Probably not? Do they take Notre Dame who beat a three- or four-loss USC team in LA but was idle on December 1? Maaaaaaaaaybe. Do they take a one-loss SEC champion like Alabama? That's where this gets interesting. Pat Dye was recently on Paul Finebaum's Alabama-based radio show talking about that very situation.
Dye on BCS Rankings,'There's a possibility that an SEC team (Bama) can jump over an undefeated Notre Dame.'Just one man's opinion, but the potential is there, however unlikely it may seem.
— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) November 12, 2012
Key Game: at Oklahoma
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This game was the one that absolutely told me that the Irish were for real. Oklahoma had only lost four times in the last dozen years at home under Bob Stoops, their offense was rolling, and the game was in primetime. Yet the Irish went in with a redshirt freshman at QB, stifled the Oklahoma offense, and wore down the Sooners over a four-quarter beatdown. The game was closer than the score, in my opinion, but the Irish absolutely squashed the Sooners and in doing so told me and the rest of America that they were for real.
BCS Bowl Picks
So, if the BCS were picked today, who goes where? Allow me to channel my inner Brad Edwards for a moment....BCS Championship: 1 Kansas State vs. 2 Oregon
Fiesta Bowl: 3 Notre Dame vs. 8 Texas A&M
Rose Bowl: 14 Nebraska vs. 7 LSU
Sugar Bowl: 4 Alabama vs. 12 Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: 10 Florida State vs. 19 Louisville
With the Big XII and Pac-12 champions off to Miami, the Fiesta Bowl and Rose Bowl get to pick first and second. The Fiesta Bowl takes ratings juggernaut Notre Dame first and pairs them with a hot new name, Texas A&M. The Rose Bowl gets stuck with Nebraska and is forced to take LSU from the SEC. (I am not sure if a SEC team is allowed to play in the Rose Bowl, but I think they can. I haven't been able to find any information to the contrary online.)
The Sugar Bowl can't believe its dumb luck and grabs the two biggest names available, setting up a fantastic OU-Bama matchup.
The Orange Bowl takes one for the team and sticks us all with the Seminoles against Louisville.
My Heisman 5:
1. Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
2. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
3. Collin Klein, Kansas State
4. Braxton Miller, Ohio State
5. Kenjon Barner, Oregon
The Heisman is an individual award an no one player has been better this year than Manti Te'o. Also, I am sick of the Heisman imitating the Davey O'Brien award. It's not QB-exclusive, folks. Te'o is better than any player on that list right now.
Going-Away Thought: Could Ohio State force a split National Championship?
One of the biggest "what ifs" of the 2012 season will undoubtedly be what impact, if any, an undefeated Ohio State may have had on the BCS if they were eligible for the postseason this year. If ranked in the BCS, I'd guess the Buckeyes would be ranked about 5th right now, but would have virtually no chance of leapfrogging KSU, Oregon, Notre Dame, or even 1-loss Alabama. They can thank the Big Ten for having such a miserable year and their own preseason poll slot being too low.Now, if Ohio State wins out and beats Wisconsin and Michigan (which they likely will), they will be 12-0 and idle while the rest of the BCS mess sorts itself out. While far from a lock, someone will likely go undefeated this year, but every other non-Ohio State team will have a loss. One would assume that whoever wins the BCS Championship Game will be the unanimous #1 team in the country, but I wonder if there's one AP voter who wouldn't give Ohio State their #1 vote this year. Only getting one vote may not seem like much, but with no team becoming the consensus national champion by unanimous decision, it's possible that Ohio State could force the issue and claim their own split national championship. They would be criticized across the nation for doing so, but AD Gene Smith and university president E. Gordon Gee haven't exactly shown themselves to be in possession of good judgment. Nice job with that whole, "we didn't expect a bowl ban this year" rhetoric guys. What might have been, indeed.
