2012 Big Ten Preview

Leaders:

1. Wisconsin (11-1)

2. Ohio State (11-1)

3. Illinois (8-4)

4. Purdue (7-5)

5. Penn State (5-7)

6. Indiana (3-9)

Legends

1. Michigan State (10-2)

2. Nebraska (9-3)

3. Iowa (9-3)

4. Michigan (8-4)

5. Northwestern (5-7)

6. Minnesota (4-8)

The Big Ten was not terribly hard to predict at the top of the league- the hard part with these guys is figuring out 3-5 in each division and the records. I could feasibly see as many as seven teams with the ability to win 10 games this year, if they get the right breaks. No Big Ten team scheduled particularly hard out of conference outside of the Michigan teams.

Leaders

Chris Borland and Mike Taylor

1. The Badgers are the safest pick in college football to win their division. What they do in the conference title game is anybody’s guess. I hope Bret Bielema sent flowers to NCAA president Mark Emmert, as the NCAA slammed Penn State in the wake of the now-infamous Freeh Report and they slapped a one-year bowl ban on Wisconsin’s chief rival in their division, Ohio State. While I could definitely see a year where Ohio State has more wins than Wisconsin and maybe even beats them in Madison that simply won’t be enough to knock Wisconsin out of the Big Ten Championship game. The Badgers were lucky this offseason twice over- they get Montee Ball back, and Maryland transfer Danny O’Brien came over to replace Russell Wilson and saved Bielema from having to use on his own recruits at the position. Wisconsin has the league’s best running back combo in Ball and James White and they also feature the league’s best LB duo heading into 2012, with tackling machines Mike Taylor and Chris Borland (293 combined tackles) both returning what should be an improved defense for the Badgers. With an easy non-conference schedule and home dates with Michigan State and Ohio State on the docket, the stage is set for Wisconsin to run the table.

Meyer and his new QB

2. The runaway choice as the Big Ten’s most interesting team to watch heading into 2012 has to be the Ohio State Buckeyes. After a brutal transition year started off by Jim Tressel’s untimely dismissal and the suspension of four key players and the first losing season since 1988, Ohio State stole the offseason headlines when they managed to lure former Utah and Florida head coach Urban Meyer out of retirement. Meyer promptly got to work, bringing in a strong recruiting class and hiring an excellent staff that brought back 2011 interim Luke Fickell and held onto several other coaches left over from the Tressel administration. Now comes the hard part for Meyer- he has to complete the transition for Ohio State from a power running team with a dual threat QB to a spread option attack. Luckily for Meyer, he has the right QB as Braxton Miller showed plenty of promise as a freshman and will be a better fit than any other incumbent QB Meyer inherited at his past coaching jobs, as well as a defense that returns 9 starters. The problems with Ohio State number four. First off, Ohio State’s offensive line will have three new starters added to a unit that was average at best in 2011. Secondly, the offensive skill positions aren’t full of promise after Miller. Meyer will need to work hard on the field and in recruiting to fix this. Next, the linebackers are not deep. Ohio State already dismissed starting middle linebacker Storm Klein in July after an incident. Finally, the defensive backfield did not play up to expectations in 2011. Though the non-conference schedule isn’t rough by any measure, Ohio State’s Big Ten schedule is the most difficult of the 12 teams in the conference. They play the divisional favorites on the road and also get Illinois, Nebraska, and a road game to Penn State, as well. Ohio State does have the talent to exceed double-digit wins, but I expect this to be somewhat of a restructuring year for the Buckeyes as Meyer reshapes the program in his image.

3. Illinois had a really weird season in 2011. It’s hard to believe they started 6-0, considering where they finished. Their non-conference schedule wasn’t terrible, as they played a 10-win Arkansas State team and Arizona State, beating each of them. Issues started in conference play for Ron Zook, who was let go and replaced by Tim Beckman, the former Toledo coach and the architect of one of college football’s secretly good offenses while with the Rockets. As is often the case when a new coach is hired, they enter a good situation with a lot of returning starters. The Illini bring back 7 on each side of the ball and the Illini were solid on each, especially on defense. Though Whitney Mercilus is off to the NFL, this is still one of the better units in the Big Ten. If the conference wasn’t as stacked as it is at LB, Jonathan Brown would be a top candidate for All-Big Ten honors. On offense, expect Beckman to simplify the offense for Nate Scheelhaase in an effort to avoid a repeat of last year’s 2nd half swoon. Illinois’s schedule isn’t great- they have road games at Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, but they will be favored in every single one of their other games. If they can pull an upset or two, 10 wins is not out of the question.

4. Purdue is a carbon copy of Illinois in 2012. Plenty of returning starters (15), a returning QB, plus a schedule that will see the Boilers favored at least six times. They manage to avoid the Legends Division’s top two teams. It’s a good thing this is coach Danny Hope’s deepest team, since the Boilermakers have had tons of injury issues over the last 3 seasons. There is a distinct shot at another bowl for Purdue, but they will be hard-pressed to top last year’s 7 wins.

O'Brien has plenty to worry about in 2012 and beyond

5. I need not say anything about Penn State that has not been over-discussed and dissected by the media. As much as their team suffered off the field, they will suffer on the field. Penn State has only four returning starters, a brand new coach, and a schedule that will make bowl eligibility difficult to pull off (knowing full well that they aren’t eligible in 2012). The Nittany Lions will still be serviceable on defense, as their starting front seven has managed to avoid a lot of issues due to transfers and the like. While QB play will likely improve under Bill O’Brien, the Lions were atrocious at passing in 2011 and the loss of their two best offensive weapons, plus TE Kevin Haplea only portends more trouble on offense in 2012.

6. Indiana is one of an exclusive triumvirate of basketball powerhouses who are mostly atrocious at football (joined by Duke and Kentucky). Indiana may be improved in 2012, as they return 14 starters to a team that lost four close games in 2011. However, their schedule is not well-suited to getting the Hoosiers back to a bowl game. Their non-conference schedule should see them favored in 3 games, but they will be underdogs for the rest of the season. Improvement on the field likely won’t be replicated in the win column in 2012.

Leaders

All eyes in East Lansing will be
on junior QB Andrew Maxwell

1. Michigan State’s program has taken off in recent years, suggesting that former Ohio State assistant Mark Dantonio has this program rolling in a manner similar to the way his former program rolled under Dantonio’s old boss, Jim Tressel. While the deck is stacked against Michigan State given that they play second fiddle to Michigan and Ohio State in their top recruiting hotbeds, Sparty has shown that he can hang with and beat both in recent years. With that being said, it should come as no surprise that they are my pick to win the Leaders for the second straight year. Though they must replace QB Kirk Cousins, RB Edwin Baker, and their top two wide receivers from last year, I expect Michigan State to play at a level close to where they did last year offensively. New QB Andrew Maxwell, although inexperienced, has been learning the position under Cousins for three years and has better measurables than Cousins. I don’t expect too much of a regression. Defensively, State looks great again with 8 returning starters from a unit that only allowed 18 points and 277 yards a game last year. Their schedule isn’t as favorable as last year’s, as they must travel to Michigan and Wisconsin and also drew Ohio State from the Legends division. Tack on Boise State and Notre Dame to their non-conference schedule and you’re looking at a potential difficult schedule. Nevertheless, I expect Dantonio to have this team ready to play and for the Spartans to return to the Big Ten championship game for a second straight year.

Martinez

2. Bo Pelini has taken a great deal of flack in recent years as the Huskers have underwhelmed in each of his four years in Lincoln, losing four games each year like clockwork. This year, the potential is still there for four losses, but the Cornhuskers return 14 starters, seven on each side of the ball and are looking at a weaker division than they faced last year, all signs that suggest improvement in 2012. The trouble is the schedule, the toughest in the Big Ten. Nebraska drew the top two teams from the Leaders division in Wisconsin and Ohio State, plus they still have to face road trips to Michigan State and Iowa in the last month of the season. For Nebraska to climb the summit in the Big Ten in 2012 will require QB Taylor Martinez to show more improvement in the passing game than he did from year one to year two of his time as the starter. Nebraska must also replace last year’s top two defensive players in DT Jared Crick and LB Lavonte David, both of whom left for the NFL. If Martinez improves, Nebraska has a good shot at the Big Ten title game, but their schedule suggests at least three in-conference losses at minimum.

Kirk Ferentz

3. Given their struggles in 2011, picking Iowa to finish 3rd in the legends division may seem like a stretch. Once look at Iowa’s schedule tells you all you need to know as to why I think they have a great chance at exceeding last year’s 7 wins. Their in-conference schedule is also favorable as they avoid both Ohio State and Wisconsin and their only two tough road games are to Michigan and Michigan State. Kirk Ferentz has done a great job in Iowa City and has always managed to field competitive teams no matter how inexperienced the roster may be. Though they must deal with the loss of yet another RB, the return of QB James Vandenburg gives Iowa the Big Ten’s best passing QB and a great shot at nine wins with an outside chance at reaching the Big Ten championship game if they can upset both Michigan teams on the road. I expect a strong bounceback year for the Hawkeyes.

4. Last year’s Michigan team was one of the most entertaining teams in college football as they played in two of the best games of the season (Notre Dame and the Sugar Bowl) and featured one of the most dynamic QBs in the country in Denard Robinson. New coach Brady Hoke won Big Ten Coach of the Year and the media raced to declare Michigan as being “back” after their 11-win season. This year, expectations will be higher than ever despite a much more difficult schedule and the loss of several key contributors on both sides of the ball. Michigan must play its four of its five toughest opponents outside of Ann Arbor, as they meet Alabama in Dallas and must also travel to Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State this year. The schedule coupled with the fact that Michigan won a number of close games in 2011 suggests a downturn in Brady Hoke’s second season. Also not suggesting an improvement is the fact that Michigan recovered 80% of all fumbles in 2012, a number that will surely go down in 2012. This is a program on the upswing but improvement will probably not be noticed in the win department this year.

QB Kain Colter

5. Northwestern has had a fine run under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, who enters his 7th year in Evanston. He has led an impressive turnaround for the Wildcats, as they have been bowl eligible in each of the last four years. This year, the Wildcats have the fewest starters returning outside of Penn State, but their schedule is not terribly difficult. They must travel to Michigan for two road games and face Vanderbilt in the non-conference, but every other game will see NW either favored or as only a slight underdog, with the exception of Nebraska. If their new starters acclimate well to bigger roles, they could reach another bowl under Fitzgerald. That being said, I expect a much more difficult year for the Wildcats and they will struggle to reach bowl eligibility for an unprecedented 5th straight year.

6. Other than Indiana, no team has had a rougher 3 year stretch in the Big Ten than Minnesota. The Gophers have not only failed to reach a bowl each season but they have developed a bad habit of struggling with teams from inferior conferences. After mercifully ending the Tim Brewster era of Gopher football, Minnesota hired noted program builder Jerry Kill from Northern Illinois, who has made a career of rebuilding programs at three different levels of college football. Heading into the second year under coach Kill, I expect the Gophers to improve. Their schedule starts off with four games that the Gophers should be favored in, but gets much harder as the Gophers must face road games to Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Nebraska. With only 12 returning starters, getting off to a good start would be a good building block for this struggling program to get back on its feet after a few years of miserable play.

All-Big Ten Team

Ball

QB Denard Robinson, Michigan

RB Montee Ball, Wisconsin

RB Rex Burkhead, Nebraska

WR Jared Abbrederis, Wisconsin

WR Keenan Davis, Iowa

WR Antavian Edison, Purdue

TE Jake Stoneburner, Ohio State

OT Ricky Wagner, Wisconsin

OG Spencer Long, Nebraska

C Travis Frederick, Wisconsin

OG Brian Mulroe, Northwestern

OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan

DE John Simon, Ohio State

DT Johnathan Hankins, Ohio State

Short

DT Kawann Short, Purdue

DE William Gholston, Michigan State

LB Chris Borland, Wisconsin

LB Mike Taylor, Wisconsin

LB Gerald Hodges, Penn State

DB Johnny Adams, Michigan State

DB Micah Hyde, Iowa

DB Isaiah Lewis, Michigan State

DB C.J. Barnett, Ohio State

K Drew Basil, Ohio State

P Brett Maher, Nebraska

KR Jared Abbrederis, Wisconsin

Ten Players Not on This List You Should Watch Anyway

Gray

QB Braxton Miller, Ohio State 

QB Marqueis Gray, Minnesota

DB Jordan Kovacs, Michigan

DE Baker Steinkuhler, Nebraska

RB James White, Wisconsin

RB Le’Veon Bell, Michigan State

KR Raheem Mostert, Purdue

DE Denicos Allen, Michigan State

LB Jonathan Brown, Illinois

DE Noah Spence, Ohio State

2012 SEC Predictions

East:
1. Georgia (12-0)
2. South Carolina (9-3)
3. Florida (8-4)
4. Tennessee (8-4)
5. Missouri (7-5)
6. Vanderbilt (5-7)
7. Kentucky (5-7)

West:
1. LSU (11-1)
2. Alabama (11-1)
3. Arkansas (10-2)
4. Auburn (7-5)
5. Mississippi State (6-6)
6. Texas A&M (5-7)
7. Ole Miss (3-9)

East Division

1. Georgia, the media’s preseason pick to win the East (based on their superior preseason poll placement relative to South Carolina), is one of the most complete teams in the country, not just the SEC. Returning 16 starters from a 10-win team, including all-SEC candidates Aaron Murray, Jarvis Jones, Bacarri Rambo, and John Jenkins has the Dawgs thinking big in 2012. It also doesn’t hurt that they miss the SEC West gauntlet of Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU, too. Replacing 3 starters on the offensive line will be a question that needs to get answered well before Georgia enters SEC play. Other than the early-season suspensions of Rambo, starting LB Alec Ogletree, DBs Sanders Commings and Branden Smith, there aren’t many other major question marks facing Georgia.

Jadeveon Clowney

2. The Gamecocks enjoyed a historic season in 2011, winning a 

school-record 11 games capped off by humiliating Nebraska in the Capital One Bowl. Steve Spurrier has the South Carolina program rolling at a level close to what he enjoyed at Florida in the 90s. The top question facing South Carolina now will be whether or not this traditionally mediocre program can sustain its success and adjust to being the hunted instead of the hunter. Their recent track record in recruiting suggests they ought to, but for now the forecast is not as sunny as it was heading into 2011. USC only returns 11 starters and its top offensive player, Marcus Lattimore is recovering from a torn ACL. QB Connor Shaw will have to adjust to life in the passing game without Alshon Jeffery. Defensively, South Carolina will be strong again even with Melvin Ingram and Stephon Gilmore off to the NFL. DE Jadeveon Clowney appears ready to take the next step and become the next marquee SEC pass rusher. With that being said, the rest of the east is stronger than it’s been in years and the Gamecocks draw Arkansas and LSU out of the west. I don’t think South Carolina will fall far, but the odds aren’t in their favor for a return to double-digit wins.

3. Florida had a rough 2011 with a lot of instability facing the program. They had a new coach, only 9 returning starters, and no-clear cut starter at QB. While the QB picture again looks muddy, the young Gators defense has had another offseason of coaching under Will Muschamp and brings back 10 starters. They should be one of the 15 best units in the country easily. With such a stacked defense, the Gators won’t be out of many games this year. The problem with them looks like it will once again stem from the offense not being able to punch the ball into the end zone against top defenses. Other than RB Mike Gillislee, the offense is devoid of playmakers. Four returning starters on the offensive line will be a big help to whoever is at QB, though. I’m interested to see what new OC Brent Pease (formerly at Boise State) will do with the Gators’ skill players. The schedule isn’t terrible, as they have only three SEC road games. After their game at Vandy on October 13, the Gators won’t leave Florida until their bowl game, most likely.

Will this be Derek Dooley's last year in Knoxville?

4. No program faces more major “what ifs” in 2012 than the Tennessee Vols. It’s hard to say where to start with Tennessee. Their fanbase has gotten restless when it comes to coach Derek Dooley, placing him squarely on the hot seat this year and making it a do-or-die season for QB Tyler Bray. Luckily for Bray, he gets back his top two targets, WRs Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers, along with their top recruit, Juco WR transfer Cordarelle Patterson. The Vols also return their whole offensive line in 2012. With a total of 10(!) returning starters, this should be one of the SEC’s top offenses in 2012. Defensively, the Vols return nine starters and brought in former Alabama DE Darrington Sentimore to go with nine more returning starters. This is Dooley’s best team in his time in Knoxville, placing him squarely on the hottest of hot seats this year. Unlike last year, the Vols dodge LSU and Arkansas, but do face Alabama again and also get a non-conference game with ACC contender NC State and later road games at Georgia and South Carolina. I have the Vols pegged for at least an eight-win season this year.  Whether that will be enough to save the coach remains to be seen.

5. One of the headline movers on the conference realignment carousel was Missouri, and they get rewarded with a devastating SEC schedule. That’s the major difference between last year’s 8-win Missouri team and this year’s team. If this Mizzou team was still in the Big 12, they’d be my pick to be the 2012 version of 2011 Kansas State. As it stands, they aren’t in the Big XII and I just wasted three sentences talking about a mythical scenario. Anyway, back to SEC football. Missouri’s schedule is brutal. I don’t think it’s the hardest in the SEC (that honor belongs to Ole Miss), but it’s going to be plenty challenging for Gary Pinkel’s crew. For starters, they have four road games- at South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, and Texas A&M plus dates with Alabama and Georgia at home. The roster will be a little different in 2012, too. Only 12 starters return, but the Tigers got a big-time commitment on Signing Day when Dorial Green-Beckham signed with the home team instead of going to SEC foe Arkansas. Even though this Missouri team is not the best one they’ve fielded compared to recent years, they will still be one of the nation’s most interesting teams with returning QB James Franklin pairing up with DGB.

QB Jordan Rodgers

6. Vanderbilt was one of the feel-good stories of 2011 as the Commodores finally showed signs of life as a program, winning six games and reaching a bowl game for only the 5th time since 1955. The program has the most positive vibes surrounding it in its history, a testament to the kind of program-changing attitude head coach James Franklin brought to Nashville. Even more of a cause for optimism among the Commodores is the return of 15 starters coupled with the arrival of a Top 25 recruiting class. Despite all this good news and positivity, there is still a lot of work to be done. Oftentimes when a new coach comes into a program that has been down on its luck and he has early success, there can be issues sustaining it. Part of it is a case of role reversal that players aren’t accustomed to- they go from being looked down on by the bigger, badder teams in their conference to suddenly being taken much more seriously the next year. That’s what I forecast for Vandy in 2012. This looks like a classic case of team whose improvement is not evident in its W-L record. With the SEC East improving and adding another quality team in Missouri, the Commodores will have their work cut out for themselves if they want to be bowl eligible for a consecutive year.

7. I try to be fair and relatively courteous when it comes to conference prognostication, but when it comes to Kentucky, the prospects do not look bright at all in 2012. As I have stated a number of times already, the SEC is much-improved. That in of itself will probably add a loss or two to Kentucky’s record this year and I haven’t even begun to discuss the fact that they only bring back 11 starters from last year’s team. (Maybe that’s a good thing for a team that only won five games a year ago.) The Wildcats had one of the weakest rushing offenses in the SEC (leading rusher CoShik Williams had just 514 yards on 118 carries) and their QB play behind freshman Maxwell Smith was not good either. Luckily for coach Joker Phillips, he was able to bring in a highly regard prep QB via recruiting in 6-5, 245 pound prospect Patrick Towles. For the simple fact that their QB play can’t be much worse than it was in 2011, I do expect Kentucky’s offense to improve at least a little bit. Kentucky got stomped for much of 2011 until their last two games of the season, and I do expect them to be much more competitive. The SEC East’s improvement coupled with a more difficult schedule has me putting the Cats down for another losing year. There’s always basketball, Kentucky.

West Division

1. LSU’s 2011 team was either impressive or disappointing, depending on who you ask. Beating eight ranked teams and winning the SEC will almost always be cause for a huge party for whoever accomplishes that task. In spite of this, there are those who would be unsatisfied with the season, especially considering how it ended. The good news for LSU is that Alabama is (slightly) weaker in 2012, both Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson are gone, and the Tiger defense looks as stingy as it ever has, even with last year’s two starting corners and NT Michael Brockers gone. Even though LSU returns 12 starters from the 2011 edition, the Tigers were fortunate in that they played in a lot of blowouts and were able to give a lot of their reserves a fair amount of in-game reps and work. So even though 12 starters is technically a low number of starters to have back, the guys that they will fill their holes with are really, really good players and most of them will have gotten some work in games last year. The biggest question mark for LSU once again lies at QB. Last year’s LSU QB were classic examples of game managers. All Les Miles had to do was look at their opponent, decide which side of their defense he wanted to run the ball at the most, which of their six quality running backs he wanted to use the most, and tell Lee or Jefferson not to screw it up. That worked to the tune of 13 wins. If new QB Zach Mettenberger can be even 10-15% better than what LSU got last year, expect LSU’s offense to be even better. That’s good news for LSU’s defense, especially considering the fact that the now-unavailable Tyrann Mathieu single-handedly won or contributed heavily to LSU’s wins against Oregon, Arkansas, and Georgia.  

Barrett Jones leads the way for Bama's offensive line

2. The Crimson Tide enjoyed yet another fantastic season under uber-coach Nick Saban, losing one game in overtime and winning all the rest of their games by no fewer than 16 points. A lot of prognosticators compare the 2012 team to the 2010 team, which was also coming off a national championship and dealing with a mass exodus of talent on defense (only 2 returning starters that year). What has me higher on 2012 Alabama than I was on 2010 Alabama is their schedule. If you recall, in 2010 Alabama had six SEC games against opponents who had a bye the week before. This of course paved the way for a disappointing (by Alabama standards) 10-3 season. Despite these trends and comparisons, 2012 Alabama won’t fall far. They have dominated as much off the field in recruiting as they have on the field, so this year’s team will be every bit as talented as any in the country. I think early on their defensive youth will cost them a game or two, but by the end of the season, they will be in fully-fledged beast mode on defense, setting themselves up for another monster year in 2013. Offensively, the Crimson Tide looks pretty spectacular. Even with their top four receiving leaders from last year gone (including all-world RB Trent Richardson), Alabama does return A.J. McCarron fresh off of his BCS Championship game performance and they bring back four starters on the offensive line. With the addition of former top recruit Cyrus Kouandijo at LT to the other four starters, this is an easy choice as the best offensive line in college football. They might even be better than some NFL offensive lines. Though they bring back only 11 starters, when you play for a juggernaut like Alabama or LSU, you get a lot of in-game reps simply because you’re pummeling teams and coaches pull starters by the end of games. I fully expect Alabama to push hard for the SEC West crown and if they can avoid the pitfalls along the way (be they inexperience, other SEC teams, or just bad luck), win another national championship.

He's crazy, he's wacky, he's...a  perfect fit for Arkansas?

3. The Razorbacks were en route to being one of the trendiest championship picks of 2012 until a poorly-timed and poorly-executed motorcycle ride torpedoed the coaching career of Bobby Petrino and left the athletic department in a horrible predicament. In short, this is going to be a weird year in Arkansas. Despite all the hubbub and distractions surrounding the spring in Fayetteville, this is still a really good football team. If they were in any conference except the SEC and Pac-12, they’d be the conference favorites. They bring back 7 starters on offense and get back all-SEC candidate RB Knile Davis from a season-ending injury suffered before last season. Even with three wide receivers off to the NFL, this is still a very, potent offense, clearly the best one in the SEC. Even better, the Hogs get divisional rivals LSU and Alabama at home this year. Most didn’t like the hire of John L. Smith, but I think that he’ll be a good fill-in for Bobby Petrino. They’ll miss the play-calling but having a coach working on such a short contract gives me a sense that he might coach like he has nothing to lose and take a few more risks that could spring Arkansas to win a game they shouldn’t have. Arkansas did win a few close games last year and the law of averages would suggest they might drop a game or two they wouldn’t typically.

4. Auburn has been an odd team to follow the last few years. For most of the time during 2008-2011, they had been a mediocre 8-win team. Obviously, 2010 was the outlier, when Cam Newton bulldozed the SEC en route to another SEC championship game victory. I’ve had a hard time trying to put my finger on the pulse of the Tigers and 2012 looks to be no different. They had been running a spread for the past three years and are shifting back to the classic smashmouth offense Auburn was famous for when they had running backs like Bo Jackson, Cadillac Williams, Rudi Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Kenny Irons, and Ben Tate carrying the rock for them. This bodes well for Auburn’s future, but in the short term, given the brutality of their division and their own relative inexperience at QB and on the offensive line (only one player older than a sophomore projected as a starter), Auburn fans might have to be a little more patient than they want to be, especially with Alabama’s recent performance across the state staring them in the eyes. The Tigers’ schedule is soft by SEC standards- their only SEC road games are at Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Vandy, but they do have to play the top 3 SEC West teams and they start off with Clemson in Atlanta on Labor Day weekend. I expect Auburn to struggle to top eight wins this year, but Gene Chizik has done a great job in Auburn and has shown an ability to exceed expectations on a yearly basis while there. (Random stat: Chizik is undefeated as a coach/assistant in bowl games- 9-0!)

5. Two years ago, Mississippi State looked like a team primed to rise from years of ineptitude and mediocrity and take a step up as a program, winning 9 games and thumping Michigan in the Gator Bowl. As is so often the case, the newfound high expectations were too much for the Bulldogs and they sputtered to a 7-win season in 2011. Across the board, team performance slumped and they barely beat Wake Forest in their bowl game to escape falling below .500. This year’s team only returns 12 starters, including only two on the offensive line. The Bulldog defense should be serviceable with 7 starters back from a unit that allowed less than 20 points a game last year. Their schedule is one of the most favorable in the SEC, as they get both of the SEC’s bottom-feeders on the road as well as Arkansas. Much like Vanderbilt, Mississippi State figures to be an improved team, though their record might not reflect that.

He's smiling now, but here's guessing he won't be when they play at Alabama

6. Texas A&M joined Missouri in leaving the Big XII for the SEC, but unlike Missouri, they drew the short straw. For starters, A&M got stuck in the West division. Secondly, they get to play 2 of the SEC East’s top teams as well as Missouri. Finally, they drew four SEC road games. All of these suggest to me that the Aggies will have issues matching last year’s 7 win total. I haven’t even begun to address the fact that they have a new starting QB, new head coach, and thirteen starters from a team that gave up nearly 30 points a game in the Big XII. While SEC offenses won’t be confused with the spread attacks of the Big XII, their defenses will certainly enjoy going after redshirt freshman starting QB Johnny Manziel. Texas A&M better plan on sweeping their non-conference games (Louisiana Tech, SMU, South Carolina State, and Sam Houston State) if they want to have a shot at a bowl game this year.

7. If you thought my review of Kentucky was bad, imagine what it’s like to be Ole Miss. First off, you play in the SEC West, so you’re getting a guaranteed three games against teams like Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU, plus Auburn. Then you find out that your rival is starting to win more of the big local recruits than you are and they’ve got more program momentum. With all that being said, Ole Miss appears to be trending slightly up in 2012. They have 16 starters back and hired Hugh Freeze, one of the bright young stars in college coaching. He’ll have his work cut out for him, because as I hinted at, the schedule is not pleasant. Their road games are with Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and LSU. Their easiest road game all year will be at Tulane. They do get a lot of manageable home games (with the exception of Texas), so they should exceed the two wins they had last year. The most important thing for Ole Miss football to concentrate on is getting better on the field and showing patience with their new coach. Canning coaches every three-four years is not a smart way to run a program, ever.

All-SEC Team

Murray

QB Aaron Murray, Georgia

RB Knile Davis, Arkansas

RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina

WR Ryan Swope, Texas A&M

WR Cobi Hamilton, Arkansas

WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee

TE Philip Lutzenkirchen, Auburn

OT D. J. Fluker, Alabama

OT Alex Hurst, LSU

OG Alvin Bailey, Arkansas

OG Chance Warmack, Alabama

C Barrett Jones, Alabama

DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina

Bostic

DE Sam Montgomery, LSU

DT Jesse Williams, Alabama

DT John Jenkins, Georgia
LB Jarvis Jones, Georgia

LB Jonathan Bostic, Florida

LB Nico Johnson, Alabama

DB Johnathan Banks, Mississippi State

DB Tharold Simon, LSU

DB Bacarri Rambo, Georgia

DB Robert Lester, Alabama

K Caleb Sturgis, Florida

P Brad Wing, LSU

KR Ace Sanders, South Carolina

Ten Players Not On this Team You Should Watch Anyway

Dorial Green-Beckham

Devin Taylor, DE, South Carolina

Zac Stacy, RB, Vandy

Da’Rick Rogers, WR, Tennessee

Tyler Bray, QB, Tennessee

Keith Marshall, RB, Georgia

Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU

Eric Reid, DB, LSU

Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri

Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn

Pre-Training Camp NFL Season Preview and Predictions: NFC Edition

I haven't written about the NFL in awhile (something ESPN could take a hint from) but I'm starting to rekindle my interest in the next NFL season. I've been reading the stuff on Pro Football Talk and watching Mike Florio talk about the next season. Recently, he talked about the recent NFL trend of teams making the playoffs the next year at a 50% clip. In short, six of the twelve teams that made the playoffs last year probably won't make it next year. The premise of this article is to explore each conference division-by-division and figure out who the lucky and unlucky six are in the league this year. We'll start in the NFC.

NFC East

DeMeco Ryans

Last year's NFC East was full of optimism and high expectations for the season after the offseasons that their respective members put together. When the rubber hit the road, the division was a big fat disappointment as only the New York Giants made the playoffs, ultimately winning the Super Bowl. Philadelphia struggled with injuries, inconsistency, and they blew five second-half leads. Dallas was in position to take the division but laid a huge egg against the Giants late in the season. The Redskins were an odd team as they played to the level of their opponents, beating teams like the Giants and losing to teams like the Vikings.
Each team in the division looks like they have all improved as much as any team in 2012. The Eagles added DeMeco Ryans via free agency and drafted DL Fletcher Cox and DE Vinny Curry in the draft. Dallas selected the draft's best non-QB player in Morris Claiborne and also signed former Chiefs CB Brandon Carr. The Giants opted for more cosmetic additions, taking Virginia Tech RB David Wilson and LSU WR Reuben Randle.

1. Dallas
2. Philadelphia
3. New York
4. Washington

You're going to be feeling a lot worse
if 2012 isn't the Cowboys' year, Tony

With the window closing on Dallas and the pressure on Tony Romo reaching LeBron James levels, the time is now for the Cowboys to make their run to the Super Bowl. It won't be easy with the division becoming even more of a slaughterhouse, but I like the Cowboys' roster composition, schemes, and durability more than the Eagles'. It's hard for me to trust Mike Vick to stay healthy for a whole season and their division is just a little bit harder than Dallas'. I might change my mind by the end of the preseason. The Eagles did finish 4-0 down the stretch and expectations are much lower this year. The Giants haven't shown a great propensity for focus and concentration when they have the spotlight on them, despite Eli Manning's development into a truly elite QB. This will be a developmental year for the Redskins as they will have to continue to add offensive pieces around Robert Griffin.



NFC North

The 2011 NFC North drew a lot of attention going into the season as many prognosticators and fans saw the rise of the Lions and the establishment of the Packers as the conference's clear-cut best team well before the season started. There was also interest in how Chicago would respond to Jay Cutler one year after his atrocious NFC Championship Game the year prior. It was obvious to many that the Packers were the best and the Vikings the worst teams in the division. 2011 didn't disappoint. Green Bay raced out to a 15-1 record despite having the worst defense and pass rush in the NFL, the Lions rang up points and yards at an absurd rate and made the playoffs, and the Bears were enjoying a breakthrough season for Cutler until he and RB Matt Forte suffered injuries. The Vikings struggled but got a glimpse of their future as they handed the reigns of their franchise to Christian Ponder.

Together again

This offseason, the only team that made any major improvements was the Bears. They booted OC/QB serial killer Mike Martz (replaced by Mike Tice), brought in Brandon Marshall to complete their version of the triplets and they added another pass rusher in the draft by selecting Boise State's Shea McClellin. Green Bay lost C Scott Wells via free agency and signed the ancient Jeff Saturday to replace him. They also have to find a suitable replacement to Chad Clifton- I'm just not convinced that player is on their roster. Their biggest loss might have been QB coach Joe Philbin, who bolted for South Beach. Compounding their problems was a draft devoid of players who will contribute much to their 2012 team.
The Lions are basically the same team they were last year and they still need to mature as a team before I take them seriously as a playoff contender. The Vikings are still developing, and are a couple of years away from booting the Packers and Bears out of this division's catbird seat. These next two-three years are crucial so they can put a quality team on the field in their new stadium. 

1. Chicago
2. Green Bay
3. Detroit
4. Minnesota

Chicago is probably the most complete team in the NFC. They play solid defense, have a top-10 QB, added an elite WR, and are very well-coached. Although they have struggled with Green Bay since the Packers switched to a 3-4 defense, their defense is the the only one that has shown any kind of ability to slow down the Aaron Rodgers offense in recent years. Considering the struggles that the Packers' defense went through in 2011 along with the fact that the majority of the same personnel are still on the roster, they figure to be this division's worst defense again. It will be up to Rodgers and the passing attack to win games again, as their running game doesn't figure to get any better either. Detroit is stuck in the unenviable position of facing two teams they are clearly inferior to in their division four times coupled with a much more difficult schedule. 

NFC South

That facial expression reminds me
of William Wallace in Braveheart. Just like
Mel Gibson/William Wallace, Brees will have
to do pretty much everything in order for his
team to have any chance of success.

There will be a lot of eyes on this division in 2012, especially after what transpired in New Orleans this offseason. Gone are HC Sean Payton, DC Gregg Williams, MLB Jonathan Vilma. With the loss of those players, team stability figures to be a huge issue. Even with QB Drew Brees coming back, this team is still headed for a decline. The NFL is a leadership league. Teams that have quality leadership at their key structure points (owner, GM, head coach, and QB) are also teams that compete on a year-to-year basis. With the fractures in their front office, it figures to be a long year in New Orleans. Drew Brees will carry more responsibility than any QB has in recent memory, including Peyton Manning during his time with the Colts.
That's all well-and-good, but what does all this mean for the rest of the division? Well, if you live in Atlanta, you should be ecstatic- you can bank on hosting at least one playoff game this year. That's how much better the Falcons are than the rest of their NFC South colleagues. Cam Newton might have taken the NFL by storm as a rookie, but he needs to improve his passing and close out more games on a more efficient basis. The Panthers still need time to fix their defense. The Bucs appear to be on a teetering point as a franchise. It might seem like ancient history now, but the Bucs used to be a regularly bad team, year after year after year. Once they hired Tony Dungy, their fortunes turned and they even won a Super Bowl. Since that time, they've been a relatively stable, if unspectacular team. With the team in flux after Raheem Morris got fired and several high draft choices busted, the onus is on new coach Greg Schiano to save the Bucs from themselves.

1. Atlanta
2. New Orleans
3. Carolina
4. Tampa Bay

New Orleans may have a leadership deficiency issue to fix, but they still have the division's best QB and that alone will be enough to keep them in the top half of the division. I expect a little regression from Cam Newton in Carolina and the Bucs' roster simply isn't talented enough to win more than 8 games next year unless Josh Freeman returns to the form he showed in 2010. (I'm not ruling that out) All Atlanta has to do is basically what they've been doing since they hired Mike Smith. That should be more than enough to win this division.

NFC West

Is #15 the biggest x-factor in the NFC? He might be. 

The NFC West was home to the NFL's surprise team of 2011, as the 49ers and rookie HC Jim Harbaugh took the NFC West by TKO and were within a couple of fumbles of making the Super Bowl despite lacking everything most of the media talking heads say you need to have to be a NFL power (elite QB, vertical passing game, experienced HC). They benefited from good health, a vastly improved turnover ratio and won a few close games they could easily have lost- all of which are signs that suggest a regression in 2012 (A.K.A. the law of averages). Even if they do regress as predicted here, they should still be the class of the NFC West. Arizona has the second-most talented roster in the division but a big unknown at QB. The Seahawks are similar to Arizona and also have their own mystery at QB in the newly acquired Matt Flynn and the Rams are back in rebuilding mode again.

1. San Francisco
2. Seattle
3. Arizona
4. St. Louis

Expect more of the same if you're on the Niners'
schedule in 2012

The 49ers are the NFL's anti-Packers. They play great defense, run the ball, and aren't dependent on one player to win their games. What other NFL team could lose their starting QB in the first part of the season and still make the playoffs? I'd say Houston for sure and after that all bets are off for me. That's why I'm taking the 49ers to win the west once more. The Seahawks had another interesting offseason with more adds and drops than my fantasy team and are once again trying out a new QB under Pete Carroll. Their roster is as strong as it's been since they were a perennial threat to win the NFC West under Mike Holmgren and their schedule is soft enough to justify them winning 10 games if they get enough breaks and Flynn lives up to the hype. This division would get really interesting if the Cardinals could somehow rectify their QB position and get some stability out of it.

Playoff Predictions

As I remarked at the beginning of this post, the NFL has enjoyed some tremendous parity in recent years. If we hold the 50% rule as a truth, then we can reason that at least three really good teams that made the playoffs in 2011 won't be making return visits next January. In the 2012 NFC, my picks for the unlucky three are the Giants, Lions, and and Saints. In the cases of the Giants and Lions it's a matter of their divisional competition improving while they remained roughly the same. Remember, the Giants and Lions probably wouldn't have made the playoffs last year if the Cowboys and Eagles played to their talent level. The Lions already looked like they were going to be on the outside looking in last year until Jay Cutler broke his hand. Oh, and this. 

2012 NFC Playoffs
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Chicago Bears
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Philadelphia Eagles

Wild Card Round
Eagles at 49ers
Packers at Bears

49ers and Bears advance to divisional round

Divisional Round
Bears at Cowboys
49ers at Falcons

49ers and Cowboys win

NFC Championship
49ers at Cowboys (Winner to be announced when I do my AFC preview.)

This would be a fascinating championship game and a throwback to the 80's and 90's. The 49ers and Cowboys have met seven times in the playoffs and four of these games have resulted in the winner reaching and winning the Super Bowl. (1981, 1992, 1993, and 1994)

Who could honestly ever forget this play? It's the NFL's version of Michael Jordan's famous shot against the Cavs.

2012 NBA Mock Draft

With the most watchable draft in all of sports around the corner, I present my own take on who will be taken and where. This is a prediction of who will be taken. I will also provide my own take on who I would pick, if I were the GM of that team. This year's draft has been characterized as "Anthony Davis and everyone else" but I don't agree with that. I'm not saying that Davis isn't the clear-cut choice for the top pick, merely that he has as many holes in his game as any other top prospect. His limitations are just much smaller than anyone else's. We could very well see a player like Perry Jones or Andre Drummond blow Anthony Davis out of the water as a pro. That's what I love about the NBA draft- you never know where your next star is going to come from.

Without further ado, my 2012 NBA Mock Draft.

1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky
-Davis is by far the best prospect to come along since Greg Oden in 2007. Davis is a phenomenal ball-handler for a big and has a nice mid-range jump shot for a guy his size. He should easily replicate what the aged Marcus Camby has provided over the last few years (basically 10 points, 8-10 rebounds, and 2+ blocks a game) but should and will continue to develop as he grows into a professional. 

Who I'd Take: Davis
- It's simple- when you pick first, take the best player available. You can always trade the guy at his position later. That's exactly what New Orleans did when they dealt Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor to Washington earlier this month. Smart, smart move by Dell Demps. 

2. Charlotte Bobcats: Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas
- Charlotte has so many needs (including new uniforms) that they cannot go wrong with any of their picks, provided he has a pulse, is taller than 6', and can actually dribble a basketball. This is year one of what looks like a long rebuild and adding a grinder like Thomas Robinson to a team that's not renowned for its work ethic would certainly help.

Who I'd Take: Bradley Beal
- Look, Charlotte has a ton of needs, but their bigs aren't the worst in the league. Sure, Tyrus Thomas, Bismack Biyombo, and DeSagana Diop could be a hell of a lot worse- just look at Detroit's bigs. Yeah, they have Greg Monroe, but that's it. The Bobcats already know they're looking a long, uphill climb- why not take the best backcourt prospect in the draft so they don't have to start Gerald Henderson every night? Ideally, they would trade this pick to Cleveland for the Cavs' two first rounders. 

3. Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal, SG, Florida
- With their front line mostly settled after acquiring Nene at the trading deadline and Emeka Okafor before the draft, the temptation to take Andre Drummond should be gone for the Wizards. Beal is the clear-cut top backcourt player in the draft and fits a need for the Wizards perfectly.

Who I'd Take: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
- Since Beal is gone in "my" mock, the Wizards take the Scottie Pippen clone out of Kentucky. While his jumper is a work in progress, MKG's work ethic, passion for the game, and athleticism are not. Pairing him with John Wall on the break would be a sight to behold. Even seeing a Wizard actually play defense would probably be a sight to behold for their fans. 

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Harrison Barnes, SF, UNC
- The trendy pick has Michael Kidd-Gilchrist going here, but I think the Cavs will want a more well-rounded player, even if he's not as aggressive or athletic as Kidd-Gilchrist.

Who I'd Take: Harrison Barnes
- See above. The Cavs are surely praying to their LeBron-hating Gods that Beal somehow falls here, but I'm going to rain on that dream, too. No way Beal makes it to four. Why else would Cleveland be talking about trading up to 2?

5. Sacramento Kings: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky
Just like every other crappy lottery team, the Kings are atrocious at defense. Since that's one of MKG's calling cards and he also plays a position of need, this is a slam-dunk pick for the Kings.

Who I'd Take: Thomas Robinson
- The Kings' projected power forwards for next year: Jason Thompson (RFA) and Hassan Whiteside. Geoff Petrie better have Robinson's agent on speed dial. 

6. Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State
- Coming off a year where Portland employed the worst point guard play in the NBA, it comes to no one's surprise that the Blazers would target the top prospect at the position in the draft. Despite facing the worst competition of any 1st round prospect, Lillard dominated workouts, the Chicago combine, and aced his Portland work out. This pick looks pretty safe on paper, but Neil Olshey took two hyper-athletic bigs during his time as GM of the Clippers (DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin). For that reason, I wouldn't be shocked if Andre Drummond was the pick.

Who I'd Take: Andre Drummond
- I'm of course aware that Portland's point guard play was awful in 2011. So was their center play. After dealing Marcus Camby at the trade deadline, the Blazers used a combo of J.J. Hickson, Joel Przybilla, and Kurt Thomas at center. Even with the NBA game shifting out of the paint to the perimeter, that's still a terrible collection of centers. Even Michael Jordan has to laugh at that one. If Lillard is gone by this pick, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Portland trades this pick to Houston for Kyle Lowry. 

7. Golden State Warriors: Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse
- I know they took a SG early last year and that Andre Drummond's agent would probably be giving Golden State GM Bob Myers puppy eyes by this point, but the Warriors have had a weird obsession with taking great offensive players that dates back all the way to the days of Rick Barry, regardless of whether or not they fill a need. Waiters is the most explosive guard in the class and the one guy I'd pick to outproduce the guards taken ahead of him.

Who I'd Take: Waiters
- With no Monta Ellis around, the Warriors could use some scoring balance in their backcourt. 


8. Toronto Raptors: Austin Rivers, SG, Duke
- I wouldn't envy GM Byran Colangelo if this were to happen. Not only are the two players he covets (Lillard and Waiters) gone, but there's no finesse European worth reaching for at 8. What would the odds be that he simply wanders into traffic or sets himself on fire if this was to occur? I'm tempted to say he'd take Rivers, since he's the closest thing to Waiters left in the draft.

Who I'd Take: Lillard
- The Raps would clearly prefer if the draft followed my scenario, which would allow them to draft Lillard and not bother with thoughts of suicide. 

9. Detroit Pistons: Andre Drummond, C, UConn
- No other draft pick, except Anthony Davis slipping to the second pick, would make their front office happier. Joe Dumars has long coveted a big man to put next to Greg Monroe. Drummond has a lot of red flags, namely productivity, motor, and work ethic concerns, but he's also the closest thing to Dwight Howard since Dwight and his only 18 years old. For a kid that young to come into the NBA with the combination of athleticism and size that makes him instantly one of the league's best athletes is truly amazing. If he had harnessed it better as a freshman, Davis would be the 2nd-best prospect by far. That kind of potential is what makes Drummond the 2012 draft's most interesting player.


Who I'd Take: Meyers Leonard
-With Drummond gone in my own mock, the Pistons take the next best thing at center. 


10. New Orleans Hornets: Kendall Marshall, PG, UNC
-I'm sure the Hornets would be disappointed to see Rivers come off the board before they pick, but getting a point guard like Marshall at 10 has to feel like a pretty nice consolation prize. I'm not in love with Marshall's game beyond his passing, but he was starting to show a developing offensive game before injuring his wrist in the NCAA tournament and his size for the position is excellent. With a great shot blocker in place in Davis, the Hornets could live with Marshall's limited lateral quickness, as a number of players who get by Marshall would find Davis waiting to swat their shots.

Who I'd Take: Austin Rivers
- The idea of pairing the draft's most NBA-ready big with its most NBA-ready perimeter player has to be tempting. A shooting guard or even Marshall are considerations here. 

11. Portland Trail Blazers: Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois
- As I stated when I explained why I took Drummond instead of Lillard for the Blazers at 6, the Blazers' front court is dangerously thin. Leonard is an interesting prospect that is like a white version of Andre Drummond. While he's not nearly as athletic or long as Drummond, Leonard measured pretty similarly to Drummond and Portland's front court won't have improved between 6 and 11.

Who I'd Take: Terrence Ross
- This may seem like a reach, but hear me out. Portland recently had to deal with the loss of all-world SG Brandon Roy, who now appears primed for a comeback tour. My point is, the Blazers have a gaping hole at SG. Since Portland is the Siberia of the NBA and it's harder to entice players to stay, it makes great sense to draft a guy with local connections who also happens to play like Roy. 

12. Houston Rockets: Tyler Zeller, C, UNC
- Having just dealt Sam Dalembert to the Bucks, the Rockets now need another center. Daryl Morey's dreams of producing the first all-white starting unit in the NBA since the mid-20th century are still in tact even though he just traded Chase Budinger to Minnesota. Imagine a lineup of Goran Dragic, Chandler Parsons, Luis Scola, and Tyler Zeller. Kevin Martin kind of screws the whiteout part up, but he's not exactly Luol Deng either. The Rockets would be as close as any team since the '86 Celtics to achieving their goal. Seriously, though, Zeller is a nice, safe pick that will play for the Rockets right away and not embarrass himself.

Who I'd Take: Perry Jones III
- Who's the last big-time impact player the Rockets had? Yao Ming? Hakeem? That's what I thought. The Rockets have a versatile ensemble of role players and scorers, they just lack a star. Jones is their best chance at a superstar this late in the draft.

13. Phoenix Suns: Jeremy Lamb, SG, UConn
- If Lamb had gone pro last year, he would have been a top-8 pick easily. Getting a player of his talent and size at 13 has to feel good for Suns fans.

Who I'd Take: Lamb

14. Milwaukee Bucks: Terrence Jones, SF, Kentucky
Another victim of staying in school, Jones went from a top-5 pick to a borderline lottery pick in the span of the year. When he sacrificed his own personal stats to make Kentucky into the national champions they became, he displayed a team-first attitude as well as a variety of skills that should make him an interesting prospect.

Who I'd Take: Jones

15. Philadelphia 76ers: John Henson, PF, UNC
This is a great value for the 76ers. I'm sure they'd be disappointed that none of the top SG's managed to slip to 15, but grabbing a shot blocker and defender like Henson at 15 is a nice grab for the 76ers. They don't really have a shot-blocker on their roster right now.

Who I'd Take: Henson

16. Houston Rockets: Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's
-A testament to how deep this draft is when a player with lottery talent falls to 16. The St. John's wing had his draft stock killed by a year in which he spent much of the time playing center. He has nice athleticism and lots of potential.

Who I'd take: Harkless
- He also provides insurance against Perry Jones' meniscus issues.

17. Dallas Mavericks: Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State
- Dirk Nowitzki is not getting any younger. Brandan Wright, Ian Mahinmi, and Shawn Marion are not world-beaters. With free agent help likely on the way and Lamar Odom on his way out of Dallas, it makes sense for the Mavs to reinforce their frontcourt depth.

Who I'd Take: Tony Wroten
- It is a virtual lock that the Mavs will have a strong, veteran point guard for the next 3-4 years. Who better than the likes of Deron Williams, Steve Nash, or Jason Kidd to teach the ropes to a project with Tyreke Evans-esque athleticism and size?

18. Houston Rockets: Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky
- The Rockets won't be very deep at guard heading into free agency and could lose Goran Dragic in free agency. Hedging their bets with a solid, if unspectacular point guard like Teague would be smart.

Who I'd Take: Teague

19. Orlando Magic: Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State
Red-listed after getting flagged by NBA doctors because of his back injury issues, this still a good value for the Magic. They already have a guy like Sullinger on their roster in Big Baby Davis, but the value is too high not to take Sullinger.


Who I'd Take: Kendall Marshall

20. Denver Nuggets: Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure
- The Nuggets have become the Rocky Mountain edition of the Golden State Warriors. They have done very well by drafting high-energy, high-effort scoring players. Nicholson isn't heralded, but the Nuggets are rumored to be enamored with him. That's good enough for me.

Who I'd Take: Nicholson

21. Boston Celtics: Royce White, SF, Iowa State
- The most interesting player in the draft, Royce White carries a LeBron-like frame and has solid athleticism. The nation's most famous Celtic fan, Bill Simmons, also endorses this pick.

Who I'd Take: White


22. Boston Celtics: Fab Melo, C, Syracuse
- Can anyone name the Celtics' reserve bigs? Anyone? Case closed on this pick.


Who I'd Take: Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State
-Imagine Kevin Garnett playing next to Jared Sullinger and Royce White instead of Brandon Bass and Greg Stiemsma for a moment. Imagine that the Celtics had that frontcourt against Miami in the playoffs. It's tempting to say that they'd win that Game 7.


23. Atlanta Hawks: Jeffrey Taylor, SF, Vanderbily
- I think the Hawks are the hardest team to predict in the lottery. For that reason, I can see them going BPA here. It's really too bad that most of the worthy PFs were gone by this point.

Who I'd Take: Taylor

24. Cleveland Cavaliers: John Jenkins, SG, Vanderbilt
- The Cavs won't be happy that Taylor went one pick before they picked, so they decide to take his teammate, the sharp-shooting Jenkins.

Who I'd Take: Festus Ezeli, C Vanderbilt
-Cleveland is still a work in progress as a roster, much like Ezeli as a player. He does have a NBA body and the requisite athleticism to play center in the league. With Anderson Varejao, Tristan Thompson, and Samardo Samuels on board, the Cavs would have enough time to be patient with Ezeli. 

25. Memphis Grizzlies: Tyshawn Taylor, PG, Kansas
- This is kind of a reach, but the Grizzlies need more athleticism and useful players in their backcourt to go along with Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo. Their lack of backcourt depth killed them against the Clippers in the playoffs. Adding Taylor to the mix is a step in the right direction.

Who I'd Take: Taylor

26. Indiana Pacers: Will Barton, SG, Memphis
- Evan Fournier is a guy who get a long look from new GM Kevin Pritchard, who drafted three Europeans while he was the GM in Portland. At the end of the day, I expect the Pacers to stay in the states and gamble on Barton's prodigious athleticism. Darius Miller would be an interesting pick here.


Who I'd Take: Evan Fournier, SG, France


27. Miami Heat: Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor
- One year after snagging an impactful rookie late in the first round, the Heat strike gold again. Miller is still recovering from an ACL injury he sustained in high school or else he would have been gone 15 picks ago. As it stands right now, he can stretch the floor and offers more athleticism than Mike Miller and Shane Battier combined. If he can get right and reach the level some projected for him coming out of high school, this pick will ruin the NBA's competitive balance for the next decade.

Who I'd Take: Miller

28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky
- The NBA Finals exposed the Thunder as a three-man team on offense. They weren't getting enough offense off their bench, so getting a guy used to playing in big moments and who also happens to possess a nice jumper makes this a logical fit for the Thunder. Pairing Lamb with Thabo Sefolosha and James Harden only improves OKC's offense.

Who I'd Take: Lamb

29. Chicago Bulls: Evan Fournier, SG, France
- It was only a matter of time before a European was taken. Unlike last year, this draft was basically devoid of quality European players. Fournier is the exception to that trend in 2012. While I don't expect him to come overseas for a couple of years, this is the kind of upside-laden pick that smart franchises make when they can afford to.

Who I'd Take: Barton


30. Golden State Warriors: Festus Ezeli, C, Vanderbilt
-As I stated earlier, Ezeli is a nice athlete and has a good build. He'll also bust his tail and play defense, something the Warriors have been lacking for a while in the front court.

Who I'd Take: Draymond Green, SF, Michigan State

Five Things I'm Looking for in the NBA Finals

Quick update: I know it's been a while since my last post, and that's on me. I've been busy with work and busy working on my offseason college football preview. I've finished my All-Conference teams for the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC and completed most of my summer Top 25. All that's left is for me to finish my conference previews and predictions. In the meantime, I decided to write a quick post about the upcoming NBA Finals. Here are a few of the storylines and matchups I'll be looking at closely in this series.

5. Small ball versus big ball
Both Oklahoma City and Miami have enjoyed success in the playoffs brought about by moving their superstar small forward to the power forward position and playing small ball. Miami's move was necessitated by the injury to Chris Bosh and their lack of depth along the front line. Strictly speaking, Oklahoma City didn't have to move Durant to win the Western Conference finals. They did it for matchups against the Spurs.
In this series, it's clear that OKC's biggest advantage is along the front line, where they can trot out Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, and Nick Collison to do battle with Chris Bosh, Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem, and Ronny Turiaf. With San Antonio off the schedule, Oklahoma City can go back to playing big- but that may change if the Heat stay with their Haslem/Bosh-LeBron-Shane Battier-Dwyane Wade-Mario Chalmers lineup. I really don't know what to expect. Foul trouble on a guy like Ibaka, Bosh, or Perkins could swing entire halves of games. Which brings me to my next point...

4. Refereeing
I know, I know. You hate refs. I hate refs. We all hate NBA refs and we would all enjoy our lives a little bit more if we never had to learn any of their names. Sadly, that's just not the case and they'll be out there with the Heat and Thunder for game one on Tuesday. Historically, referees tend to favor home teams. You'd think, then, that I'm about to say "Matchup: OKC." I suppose I could simply count the number of home games and make that assertion, but I won't. The NBA Finals' 2-3-2 format is an extremely interesting alignment. Suppose Miami wins one or both of the first two games in Oklahoma. Then they get to go back to South Beach with a chance at winning two or three of the next three games in their home arena. Assuming they win one of the first two games, the series could be over before it returns to Oklahoma City and Miami will have played three games at home to the Thunder's two. Some may argue that's not fair, but them's the breaks, I guess.

3. James Harden's Beard
Truthfully, this should just read, "Who the hell is going to guard Harden for the Heat in this series?" I just love that beard too much not to make a ton of passing references to it. Anyway, it's pretty obvious to see what the matchups look like in the Finals. I'm assuming that Miami will resume starting Chris Bosh, move LeBron back to SF where he belongs, move Shane Battier to the bench and make Udonis Haslem or Joel Anthony a starter again. The only matchups we can guarantee are that Anthony or Haslem will guard Perkins, Bosh will guard Ibaka, and LeBron will guard Durant. How the backcourt matchup between Dwyane Wade and Mario Chalmers and Russell Westbrook and James Harden lines up will be very interesting. To start, I expect Miami will slide Chalmers onto Harden and make Wade cover Westbrook. If Harden starts destroying Chalmers, don't be shocked if Chalmers gets benched and Shane Battier makes an appearance in a weird Wade-James-Battier-Bosh-Anthony lineup now and then.

2. Will the real Dwyane Wade please stand up?
In a span of a few weeks, Wade went from reminding us why he won the Finals MVP in 2006 to "he's hurt again." I'll keep this brief. Wade needs to bring his A game for this Finals. He'll be covering Westbrook and Harden for the overwhelming majority of the series, so he'll need to stay out of foul trouble while also getting his off of OKC's young perimeter players and drawing fouls on their bigs. The Thunder aren't as good defensively as the Pacers or Celtics, so Wade will find getting his points a lot easier. He just needs to stay on the court and play good defense. That means he should quit squawking at the refs and get back on defense more often. You know Westbrook and Harden won't stop and wait for him.

1. The LeBron James-Kevin Durant Matchup
Of course this is number one. It seems like everyone and their dog is hyperinterested in this particular matchup, and I'm no different. To me, it kind of hearkens back to the 1992 Finals between Portland and Chicago, where one of the top stories was Michael Jordan against Clyde Drexler for the title of best shooting guard in the NBA. Of course, we all remember what happened. Jordan went nuts and out-played Drexler basically the whole series. Drexler was never the same player afterwards.
Fast forward to 2012, and a similar debate over who the better player between LeBron and Durant rages. On a national level, this series will choose for the public who the best player in the NBA is now. It's a stupid premise, but it exists. Personally, I'd need to see Durant become one of the NBA's five best on-ball defenders, assist men, and start rebounding at a higher level. Basketball is such a multifaceted and complex sport to analyze (just look at the last 10 NBA drafts) with so many different skills within its framework that I have a hard time saying a guy who is better at more different elements isn't as good as a player who's not. Durant is comfortably a top-3 NBA player, and that's an absolute worst-case scenario.

Here's a look at how LeBron and Durant have fared against each other (Courtesy of basketball-reference.com)

Player         G W L GS   MP  FG  FGA  FG%  3P 3PA  3P%  FT FTA  FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PF  PTS
LeBron James   9 7 2  9 37.4 9.7 19.4 .497 2.0 4.9 .409 5.4 7.2 .754 0.6 5.3 5.9 7.1 2.4 1.2 2.8 1.4 26.8
Kevin Durant   9 2 7  9 39.7 9.4 19.9 .475 2.0 4.0 .500 6.4 7.7 .841 0.9 5.4 6.3 2.9 1.7 0.7 3.7 1.8 27.3

Pretty similar.
I will say this for Durant- this will be the most difficult series of his entire life. He's never faced a player with the defensive capability of LeBron in a playoff series and this is his first go-round in the NBA Finals. As stated earlier, Miami has a humongous advantage over the Thunder in Finals experience. LeBron knows the stakes a heck of a lot more than Durant and will be extra motivated to win this series. When LeBron isn't guarding Durant, Shane Battier will. Durant's work is cut out for him.


The prediction:

Everyone likes Oklahoma City in this matchup and they probably should be favored. I disagree, and will stick with my preseason prediction of Miami over Oklahoma City in 6. LeBron wins his first ring and Skip Bayless immolates himself on national television. And there was much rejoicing.