2012 Big Ten Preview

Leaders:

1. Wisconsin (11-1)

2. Ohio State (11-1)

3. Illinois (8-4)

4. Purdue (7-5)

5. Penn State (5-7)

6. Indiana (3-9)

Legends

1. Michigan State (10-2)

2. Nebraska (9-3)

3. Iowa (9-3)

4. Michigan (8-4)

5. Northwestern (5-7)

6. Minnesota (4-8)

The Big Ten was not terribly hard to predict at the top of the league- the hard part with these guys is figuring out 3-5 in each division and the records. I could feasibly see as many as seven teams with the ability to win 10 games this year, if they get the right breaks. No Big Ten team scheduled particularly hard out of conference outside of the Michigan teams.

Leaders

Chris Borland and Mike Taylor

1. The Badgers are the safest pick in college football to win their division. What they do in the conference title game is anybody’s guess. I hope Bret Bielema sent flowers to NCAA president Mark Emmert, as the NCAA slammed Penn State in the wake of the now-infamous Freeh Report and they slapped a one-year bowl ban on Wisconsin’s chief rival in their division, Ohio State. While I could definitely see a year where Ohio State has more wins than Wisconsin and maybe even beats them in Madison that simply won’t be enough to knock Wisconsin out of the Big Ten Championship game. The Badgers were lucky this offseason twice over- they get Montee Ball back, and Maryland transfer Danny O’Brien came over to replace Russell Wilson and saved Bielema from having to use on his own recruits at the position. Wisconsin has the league’s best running back combo in Ball and James White and they also feature the league’s best LB duo heading into 2012, with tackling machines Mike Taylor and Chris Borland (293 combined tackles) both returning what should be an improved defense for the Badgers. With an easy non-conference schedule and home dates with Michigan State and Ohio State on the docket, the stage is set for Wisconsin to run the table.

Meyer and his new QB

2. The runaway choice as the Big Ten’s most interesting team to watch heading into 2012 has to be the Ohio State Buckeyes. After a brutal transition year started off by Jim Tressel’s untimely dismissal and the suspension of four key players and the first losing season since 1988, Ohio State stole the offseason headlines when they managed to lure former Utah and Florida head coach Urban Meyer out of retirement. Meyer promptly got to work, bringing in a strong recruiting class and hiring an excellent staff that brought back 2011 interim Luke Fickell and held onto several other coaches left over from the Tressel administration. Now comes the hard part for Meyer- he has to complete the transition for Ohio State from a power running team with a dual threat QB to a spread option attack. Luckily for Meyer, he has the right QB as Braxton Miller showed plenty of promise as a freshman and will be a better fit than any other incumbent QB Meyer inherited at his past coaching jobs, as well as a defense that returns 9 starters. The problems with Ohio State number four. First off, Ohio State’s offensive line will have three new starters added to a unit that was average at best in 2011. Secondly, the offensive skill positions aren’t full of promise after Miller. Meyer will need to work hard on the field and in recruiting to fix this. Next, the linebackers are not deep. Ohio State already dismissed starting middle linebacker Storm Klein in July after an incident. Finally, the defensive backfield did not play up to expectations in 2011. Though the non-conference schedule isn’t rough by any measure, Ohio State’s Big Ten schedule is the most difficult of the 12 teams in the conference. They play the divisional favorites on the road and also get Illinois, Nebraska, and a road game to Penn State, as well. Ohio State does have the talent to exceed double-digit wins, but I expect this to be somewhat of a restructuring year for the Buckeyes as Meyer reshapes the program in his image.

3. Illinois had a really weird season in 2011. It’s hard to believe they started 6-0, considering where they finished. Their non-conference schedule wasn’t terrible, as they played a 10-win Arkansas State team and Arizona State, beating each of them. Issues started in conference play for Ron Zook, who was let go and replaced by Tim Beckman, the former Toledo coach and the architect of one of college football’s secretly good offenses while with the Rockets. As is often the case when a new coach is hired, they enter a good situation with a lot of returning starters. The Illini bring back 7 on each side of the ball and the Illini were solid on each, especially on defense. Though Whitney Mercilus is off to the NFL, this is still one of the better units in the Big Ten. If the conference wasn’t as stacked as it is at LB, Jonathan Brown would be a top candidate for All-Big Ten honors. On offense, expect Beckman to simplify the offense for Nate Scheelhaase in an effort to avoid a repeat of last year’s 2nd half swoon. Illinois’s schedule isn’t great- they have road games at Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, but they will be favored in every single one of their other games. If they can pull an upset or two, 10 wins is not out of the question.

4. Purdue is a carbon copy of Illinois in 2012. Plenty of returning starters (15), a returning QB, plus a schedule that will see the Boilers favored at least six times. They manage to avoid the Legends Division’s top two teams. It’s a good thing this is coach Danny Hope’s deepest team, since the Boilermakers have had tons of injury issues over the last 3 seasons. There is a distinct shot at another bowl for Purdue, but they will be hard-pressed to top last year’s 7 wins.

O'Brien has plenty to worry about in 2012 and beyond

5. I need not say anything about Penn State that has not been over-discussed and dissected by the media. As much as their team suffered off the field, they will suffer on the field. Penn State has only four returning starters, a brand new coach, and a schedule that will make bowl eligibility difficult to pull off (knowing full well that they aren’t eligible in 2012). The Nittany Lions will still be serviceable on defense, as their starting front seven has managed to avoid a lot of issues due to transfers and the like. While QB play will likely improve under Bill O’Brien, the Lions were atrocious at passing in 2011 and the loss of their two best offensive weapons, plus TE Kevin Haplea only portends more trouble on offense in 2012.

6. Indiana is one of an exclusive triumvirate of basketball powerhouses who are mostly atrocious at football (joined by Duke and Kentucky). Indiana may be improved in 2012, as they return 14 starters to a team that lost four close games in 2011. However, their schedule is not well-suited to getting the Hoosiers back to a bowl game. Their non-conference schedule should see them favored in 3 games, but they will be underdogs for the rest of the season. Improvement on the field likely won’t be replicated in the win column in 2012.

Leaders

All eyes in East Lansing will be
on junior QB Andrew Maxwell

1. Michigan State’s program has taken off in recent years, suggesting that former Ohio State assistant Mark Dantonio has this program rolling in a manner similar to the way his former program rolled under Dantonio’s old boss, Jim Tressel. While the deck is stacked against Michigan State given that they play second fiddle to Michigan and Ohio State in their top recruiting hotbeds, Sparty has shown that he can hang with and beat both in recent years. With that being said, it should come as no surprise that they are my pick to win the Leaders for the second straight year. Though they must replace QB Kirk Cousins, RB Edwin Baker, and their top two wide receivers from last year, I expect Michigan State to play at a level close to where they did last year offensively. New QB Andrew Maxwell, although inexperienced, has been learning the position under Cousins for three years and has better measurables than Cousins. I don’t expect too much of a regression. Defensively, State looks great again with 8 returning starters from a unit that only allowed 18 points and 277 yards a game last year. Their schedule isn’t as favorable as last year’s, as they must travel to Michigan and Wisconsin and also drew Ohio State from the Legends division. Tack on Boise State and Notre Dame to their non-conference schedule and you’re looking at a potential difficult schedule. Nevertheless, I expect Dantonio to have this team ready to play and for the Spartans to return to the Big Ten championship game for a second straight year.

Martinez

2. Bo Pelini has taken a great deal of flack in recent years as the Huskers have underwhelmed in each of his four years in Lincoln, losing four games each year like clockwork. This year, the potential is still there for four losses, but the Cornhuskers return 14 starters, seven on each side of the ball and are looking at a weaker division than they faced last year, all signs that suggest improvement in 2012. The trouble is the schedule, the toughest in the Big Ten. Nebraska drew the top two teams from the Leaders division in Wisconsin and Ohio State, plus they still have to face road trips to Michigan State and Iowa in the last month of the season. For Nebraska to climb the summit in the Big Ten in 2012 will require QB Taylor Martinez to show more improvement in the passing game than he did from year one to year two of his time as the starter. Nebraska must also replace last year’s top two defensive players in DT Jared Crick and LB Lavonte David, both of whom left for the NFL. If Martinez improves, Nebraska has a good shot at the Big Ten title game, but their schedule suggests at least three in-conference losses at minimum.

Kirk Ferentz

3. Given their struggles in 2011, picking Iowa to finish 3rd in the legends division may seem like a stretch. Once look at Iowa’s schedule tells you all you need to know as to why I think they have a great chance at exceeding last year’s 7 wins. Their in-conference schedule is also favorable as they avoid both Ohio State and Wisconsin and their only two tough road games are to Michigan and Michigan State. Kirk Ferentz has done a great job in Iowa City and has always managed to field competitive teams no matter how inexperienced the roster may be. Though they must deal with the loss of yet another RB, the return of QB James Vandenburg gives Iowa the Big Ten’s best passing QB and a great shot at nine wins with an outside chance at reaching the Big Ten championship game if they can upset both Michigan teams on the road. I expect a strong bounceback year for the Hawkeyes.

4. Last year’s Michigan team was one of the most entertaining teams in college football as they played in two of the best games of the season (Notre Dame and the Sugar Bowl) and featured one of the most dynamic QBs in the country in Denard Robinson. New coach Brady Hoke won Big Ten Coach of the Year and the media raced to declare Michigan as being “back” after their 11-win season. This year, expectations will be higher than ever despite a much more difficult schedule and the loss of several key contributors on both sides of the ball. Michigan must play its four of its five toughest opponents outside of Ann Arbor, as they meet Alabama in Dallas and must also travel to Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State this year. The schedule coupled with the fact that Michigan won a number of close games in 2011 suggests a downturn in Brady Hoke’s second season. Also not suggesting an improvement is the fact that Michigan recovered 80% of all fumbles in 2012, a number that will surely go down in 2012. This is a program on the upswing but improvement will probably not be noticed in the win department this year.

QB Kain Colter

5. Northwestern has had a fine run under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, who enters his 7th year in Evanston. He has led an impressive turnaround for the Wildcats, as they have been bowl eligible in each of the last four years. This year, the Wildcats have the fewest starters returning outside of Penn State, but their schedule is not terribly difficult. They must travel to Michigan for two road games and face Vanderbilt in the non-conference, but every other game will see NW either favored or as only a slight underdog, with the exception of Nebraska. If their new starters acclimate well to bigger roles, they could reach another bowl under Fitzgerald. That being said, I expect a much more difficult year for the Wildcats and they will struggle to reach bowl eligibility for an unprecedented 5th straight year.

6. Other than Indiana, no team has had a rougher 3 year stretch in the Big Ten than Minnesota. The Gophers have not only failed to reach a bowl each season but they have developed a bad habit of struggling with teams from inferior conferences. After mercifully ending the Tim Brewster era of Gopher football, Minnesota hired noted program builder Jerry Kill from Northern Illinois, who has made a career of rebuilding programs at three different levels of college football. Heading into the second year under coach Kill, I expect the Gophers to improve. Their schedule starts off with four games that the Gophers should be favored in, but gets much harder as the Gophers must face road games to Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Nebraska. With only 12 returning starters, getting off to a good start would be a good building block for this struggling program to get back on its feet after a few years of miserable play.

All-Big Ten Team

Ball

QB Denard Robinson, Michigan

RB Montee Ball, Wisconsin

RB Rex Burkhead, Nebraska

WR Jared Abbrederis, Wisconsin

WR Keenan Davis, Iowa

WR Antavian Edison, Purdue

TE Jake Stoneburner, Ohio State

OT Ricky Wagner, Wisconsin

OG Spencer Long, Nebraska

C Travis Frederick, Wisconsin

OG Brian Mulroe, Northwestern

OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan

DE John Simon, Ohio State

DT Johnathan Hankins, Ohio State

Short

DT Kawann Short, Purdue

DE William Gholston, Michigan State

LB Chris Borland, Wisconsin

LB Mike Taylor, Wisconsin

LB Gerald Hodges, Penn State

DB Johnny Adams, Michigan State

DB Micah Hyde, Iowa

DB Isaiah Lewis, Michigan State

DB C.J. Barnett, Ohio State

K Drew Basil, Ohio State

P Brett Maher, Nebraska

KR Jared Abbrederis, Wisconsin

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Gray

QB Braxton Miller, Ohio State 

QB Marqueis Gray, Minnesota

DB Jordan Kovacs, Michigan

DE Baker Steinkuhler, Nebraska

RB James White, Wisconsin

RB Le’Veon Bell, Michigan State

KR Raheem Mostert, Purdue

DE Denicos Allen, Michigan State

LB Jonathan Brown, Illinois

DE Noah Spence, Ohio State