1. Oregon (11-1)
2. Stanford (10-2)
3.
California (7-5)
4. Washington (7-5)
5.
Washington State (5-7)
6. Oregon
State (4-8)
South:
1. USC (12-0)
2. Utah (10-2)
3. UCLA (6-6)
4. Arizona (4-8)
5. Arizona
State (3-9)
6. Colorado (2-10)
North
 |
| Mariota |
Naturally,
all eyes will be on Los Angeles on November 3rd, when the Ducks travel to USC
for part two of a day that will most likely feature two matchups between every
team ranked in the top 4 at the time (LSU hosts Alabama).
| Skov |
2. Most
people expect a regression from Stanford, and that’s fair. Anytime you lose
leadership the caliber of Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck in consecutive years, a
noticeable drop-off is to be expected. With that being said, the 2012 Cardinal
won’t be too far behind where the last two years’ versions were. They bring
back 13 starters, including 7 on a defense that was the Pac-12’s best
all-around unit. In keeping with the style Harbaugh and current coach David
Shaw prefer, they’ll be stingy on the lines and the front-7 is one of the best
in the country. Bringing back Shayne Skov, Chase Thomas, and Trent Murphy to
supplement their strong defensive line will keep Stanford competitive. Skov and
Thomas figure to be among the Pac-12’s best chances to win the Butkus award and
might be the best 1-2-3 punch at LB since USC had Rey Maualuga, Brian Matthews,
and Clay Matthews in 2008. The main issue everyone wants to debate concerning
Stanford lies at QB, where Brett Nottingham and Josh Nunes battled during the
spring, offseason and fall camp. Regardless of whoever wins the job, it’s obvious
they won’t be as good as Luck was. That’s where Stanford’s strong offensive
line and talented stable of running backs (including freshman Barry Sanders,
Jr.) will be key. Their expected level of performance will be essential to
keeping Nunes upright and confident as defenses won’t be allowed to pin their
ears back and attack him all game. As is the case with rookie QBs in the NFL,
it helps to give first-year starters at QB some safety blankets. That’s where TEs
Levine Toilolo and Zach Ertz come in. The Cardinal’s schedule is one of the
more challenging ones in the Pac-12. They have road games versus Oregon, UCLA,
California, and Washington, and they drew USC out of the south as well. Toss in
a mid-season cross-country trip to Notre Dame and you have a schedule that will
force Nunes to grow up, quickly. Stanford should be favored in all of those
games, except the USC and Oregon games and has an excellent shot at double
digit wins for a 3rd straight season so long as Nunes is efficient. He doesn’t
have to be Andrew Luck.
| There better be some answers on that sheet, Jeff |
3. Cal has had
problems with consistency since the end of mid-2000’s, when they were a pain in
USC’s side and a legitimate threat to win 9+ games a year under Jeff Tedford (thanks in no small part to efforts made by Aaron Rodgers and Marshawn Lynch).
The last five years have not been kind to the Golden Bears. Part of the problem
has obviously stemmed from the rise of Oregon and Stanford, but the majority
has come from Tedford’s inability to find QBs to run his offense. The Bears
have produced legitimate pro prospects at nearly every other position during
that time frame, but they have been well-below average at QB. This year,
Tedford has his QB back, but only 10 other starters are returning from a team
that went 7-6 in 2011. The unknown dynamic surrounding Cal in 2012 is how their
return to Memorial Stadium will go. Last year they played essentially 12 road
games, as they had to travel even for home games. The Bears drew a long straw
when it comes to schedule, as they got 5 Pac-12 home games, including the
Pac-12 North’s top 3 teams in Oregon, Stanford, and Washington. They do have
three brutal road games on their schedule in 2012- visits to Ohio State, USC,
and Utah will push the young Bears. If QB Zach Maynard can build off his
encouraging finish to the season in 2011 and find ways to get the ball to stud
WR Keenan Allen and RB Isi Sofele continues Cal’s tradition of 1,000 yard
backs, the Bears might surprise. The Bears are a lock to reach a bowl again in
2012 and have an outside chance at representing the Pac-12 North as long as
they can beat their interdivisional opponents at home.
4. The last
time we saw Washington, they were getting blistered by Baylor and Robert
Griffin in the Alamodome. Even so, don’t let that image, however ugly, color
your view of the 2012 Huskies. This program has steadily grown and improved
under Steve Sarkisian. Despite several key losses, including top rusher Chris
Polk, this might be the best Washington team since Cody Pickett played here.
Despite that, Washington may be a case of a team that shows improvement
everywhere except on the field. They have five difficult conference road games
and face a road trip to LSU in week 2. Given the massive improvement the Pac-12
has undergone, the Huskies might struggle to reach bowl eligibility, but I
still foresee them reaching the 7-win mark for the 3rd straight year under
Sarkisian, ultimately setting the table for 2013.
5.
Washington State has been one of the buzziest teams of the offseason, and it’s
pretty simple to figure out why. They hired in one of the few coaches in
college football that can win in any situation, Mike Leach. Despite the ugly
way his Texas Tech career ended, the Pirate has a fantastic track record,
winning over 80 games during his tenure in Lubbock. Washington State is the
Pac-12’s version of Texas Tech. It will take time for the Cougars to reach the
level his best Red Raider teams were at, but this program finally has an
element of positive momentum they haven’t had since they finished #9 in the
final poll of 2003. Until Leach can bring in the kinds of players he needs for
his Air Raid scheme, expect lots of yards, points and sacks for the Cougars’
offense. This is a program on the rise,
but they will need to show patience with Leach.
6. Oregon
State was once a perennial threat to be the team that no one saw coming every
single season, but the last couple of years haven’t been kind to Beavers, as
they have struggled across the board, winning just 8 games in the previous two
seasons. There is some upside here, as QB Sean Mannion appears to have the
skill set to run coach Mike Riley’s scheme and they do bring back 15 returning
starters. For some, this is a potential bowl team, but I only see the Beavers
topping out at 4-5 wins, tops. If they want a bowl game in 2012, they’ll need
to upset a major Pac-12 rival, a tough task.
South
1. The most
overused phrase of the 2012 offseason that doesn’t concern playoffs has to be “USC
is back.” Whether or not that’s actually true (and it appears to be that way),
the immediate future in Los Angeles looks as sunny as ever. USC is loaded this
year. They aren’t deep, but their starting 22 (15 returning starters) is as
good as any. The important key for USC, as has been beaten into the ground by
every other prognosticator is health. USC absolutely cannot afford any more
injuries, especially on defense. Post-spring projected starting DE Devon
Kennard is already gone for the year and defensive line is not USC’s strongest
unit, a red flag to me. When it comes to national championship-worthy teams, I
like to start in the trenches and under center. Luckily for Lane Kiffin, the
Trojans are as well-accommodated as any at the QB position. Heisman Trophy
favorite Matt Barkley returned with his eyes set on Miami (the site of the 2013
NCG) and he has plenty of friends to help him out, including All-America
candidates Robert Woods and Marqise Lee at WR and Khaled Holmes at C. The men
of Troy also gained a nice boost to their rushing attack when Silas Redd left
Penn State for L.A. USC’s schedule is nice and pliable, with the exception of
three key games. The September 15 game at Stanford will test the Trojans’ front
7 depth and physicality. The October 4, Thursday night road game to Utah is easily
the most dangerous game on the schedule for USC. It’s in primetime, in
altitude, and against a Utah team that gave USC a tough game in 2011 and will
be coming off a bye week. The final game that should scare USC is their duel
with the Ducks, a rivalry that has grown in recent years to be one of the
nation’s best and must-watch for TV for those who love offense. With all their
talent, USC has a great chance at running the table, but they will need to beat
Oregon twice to reach another BCS Championship game.
2. My
favorite unheralded team of this upcoming season is the Utah Utes. Not only
does Kyle Whittingham’s team bring back 16 starters, including likely All-American
DT Star Lotulelei, but they also drew a great schedule that avoids both of the
Pac-12 North’s major teams. That coupled, with a home game versus USC, gives Utah
a great chance at double digit wins and an outside chance at the BCS, possibly giving
the Pac-12 a legitimate case for sending three teams. The lynchpin of the
season will of course be at quarterback, where Jordan Wynn returns. It remains
to be seen with him if he has gotten over a shoulder injury that hampered him
last year. If he is better, and I expect he will be, the rest of the offense
will flow smoothly. John White is easily one of the best BCS conference players
you’ve never heard of and his presence will make this a solid offense.
3. One of
the teams I have had a historically difficult time predicting has been UCLA,
especially recently. Former coach Rick Neuheisel recruited well during his time
there, but ultimately the Bruins struggled to stay competitive with USC and Oregon
in the Pac-10/12. Some of the blame will rightfully be attributed to QB
injuries, but the majority of it will be placed
on Neuheisel for not instilling the proper discipline and attention to
detail in his players. UCLA decided to go completely opposite of Neuheisel,
bringing in Jim Mora. Mora has stressed discipline and brought an NFL-style
practice philosophy to Westwood in an effort to rectify these issues. In the short
time after he started, he recruited hard and was able to secure a solid class
to supplement the bevy of returning starters the Bruins have back, including 9
on defense. UCLA gets five Pac-12 home games and avoids Oregon, giving them a
great chance at another bowl game. If you buy recruiting rankings, UCLA has the
talent to do a lot better than the 6 or 7 wins they’re projected for, but it
will be up to Mora and new OC Noel Mazzone to develop and solidify UCLA’s QB
position.
4. As one of
the four Pac-12 teams with a new coach, the future in Arizona is full of
optimism. Rich Rodriguez was brought in a year after his brutal time at
Michigan came to an abrupt end. The interesting thing about Rich Rodriguez in
the Pac-12 is the inherent “newness” he will bring. No teams other than Oregon
run the spread option all that commonly and no one runs his 3-3-5 stack
defense. I’m a believer in being counter-cultural (as it applies to college
football) and challenging a conference used to high-flying passing attacks by
running the ball and using the option makes Arizona a team to watch in the next
couple of years to see if they can bridge the gap between them and USC in the South
Division. The Wildcats bring back only 12 starters and drew both Oregon and
Stanford as road games, along with Utah on the road, meaning this will likely be
a rebuilding year. Changing to Rodriguez’s offense does not happen overnight but
I do expect Arizona fans and the administration to be patient with him.
5. New Sun
Devils coach Todd Graham recently referred to the mind-set of the program under
Dennis Erickson as “free spirited.” It’s clear that he has work to do in Tempe.
Arizona State only brings back 8 starters and must replace a 2-year starter at
QB in Brock Osweiler. Luckily for Graham, he does get one of the Pac-12’s best
RBs in Cameron Marshall back. Even so, ASU has only 8 returning starters
overall and the program has struggled recently, meaning it will be up to Graham
to restore momentum to a program that lost it over the last four seasons. He will also face increased scrutiny after the manner in which he departed Pittsburgh.
6. Colorado
has certainly fallen a long way from the level they were at in the early 2000’s,
when UC was a regular threat to reach the Big XII title game. Nowadays,
Buffaloes fans just want to see bowl eligibility. Sadly, it appears that 2012
won’t be any kinder to the Buffaloes than any of the last few years (no winning
seasons since 2005). Bringing back one of the Pac-12’s most inexperienced teams
(9 returning starters, only 8 seniors on roster), coach Jon Embree has one of
the toughest jobs in college football ahead of him as he works to bring Colorado
back to relevance. Colorado has an easy non-conference schedule and 5 Pac-12
home games, but drew each of the Pac-12’s five best teams.
All Pac-12 Team
| Barner |
QB Matt
Barkley, USC
RB Stepfan Taylor, Stanford
RB Stepfan Taylor, Stanford
RB Kenjon
Barner, Oregon
WR Robert Woods, USC
WR Keenan Davis, Cal
WR Marquess Wilson, Washington State
WR Robert Woods, USC
WR Keenan Davis, Cal
WR Marquess Wilson, Washington State
TE Austin
Sefarian-Jenkins, Washington
OT Matt Summers-Gavin,
Cal
OT Kevin
Graf, USC
OG Carson
York, Oregon
OG Erik
Kohler, Washington
C Khaled Holmes, USC
C Khaled Holmes, USC
| Lotulelei |
DE Josh Shirley,
Washington
DT Star
Lotulelei, Utah
DT Aaron Tipoti, Cal
DT Aaron Tipoti, Cal
DE Dion
Jordan, Oregon
LB Dion
Bailey, USC
LB Shayne Skov, Stanford
LB Chase Thomas, Stanford
DB Nickell Robey, USC
DB Desmond Trufant, Washington
DB John Boyett, Oregon
DB TJ McDonald, USC
LB Shayne Skov, Stanford
LB Chase Thomas, Stanford
DB Nickell Robey, USC
DB Desmond Trufant, Washington
DB John Boyett, Oregon
DB TJ McDonald, USC
K Andre Heidari,
USC
P Jeff
Locke, UCLA
KR De’Anthony
Thomas, Oregon
Ten Players Not on This List You Should Watch Anyway
| Price |
QB Keith Price, Washington
RB Cameron Marshall, Arizona State
RB John White, Utah
DE Wes Horton, USC
RB Isi Sofele, Cal
WR Marqise Lee, USC
RB Jonathan Franklin, UCLA
C Sam Schwartzstein, Stanford
DE Ben Gardner, Stanford
QB Sean Mannion, Oregon State
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