NFL Surprise Teams

Through three games of the 2011 NFL Season, we've seen some pretty remarkable things- Cam Newton's back-to-back 400 yard games, Tom Brady trying to annihilate every individual single-season passing record by week 8, and two former doormats in Buffalo and Detroit rising up the NFL's totem pole. After both teams scored impressive comeback wins last week against divisional foes, everyone wants to know if they're legitimate contenders or pretenders. Let's dive in and take a look at them.

Buffalo Bills 
Offensive Rank: 3
PPG: 37.7 (1st)
Defensive Rank: 26
PA: 24.3 (21st)






Team Leaders
Offense:
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Harvard): 72 of 111 (65%), 9 TD, 3 INT, 10 carries, 20 yards
RB Fred Jackson (Coe College): 47 carries, 304 yards (101 ypg, 6.4 ypc), 3 TD, 8 receptions, 115 yards
WR Steve Johnson (Kentucky): 20 receptions, 256 yards (85.3 ypg, 12.8 avg.), 3 TD

Defense:
LB Nick Barnett (Oregon State): 29 tackles (17 solo), 2 TFL
2 tied with one sack apiece
CB Drayton Florence (Tuskegee): 8 tackles, 2 INT, 4 passes defended

A couple things jump out to me statistically about the Bills. The first and most alarming to me is that they've only managed a whole two sacks in three games so far, on pace for a total of 12. It's clear they'll need more from Shawne Merriman if they want to sustain their success as a team. The second stat I found was that the Bills have scored on an insane 50% of their possessions this year. (I can't remember where I saw this. I'll look for it later and add the link once I find it.)

Offensively, I think the Bills are better right now than every team in the league save New England and Green Bay. You have to give Chan Gailey a ton of credit for what he's been able to do with this group of unheralded players. Look at where these guys went to school- their QB went to an Ivy League school, their top RB went to a Division III school, their top defensive back went to a D-II school and their top wide receiver went to one of the SEC's bottom feeders. Regardless, Gailey has taken these players and expertly crafted an offensive system tailored to these players' strengths. Ryan Fitzpatrick is no Mike Vick when it comes to arm strength, but he is a highly intelligent QB whose great mental capacity when it comes to reading the coverage and getting the ball out on time is on par with the game's best at the position. I'm not going to be so arrogant as to claim I predicted Fitzpatrick would be a success, but considering who drafted him (Mike Martz) and when (7th round), I remembered to keep my eyes on him. Remember, Martz discovered and developed Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger while in St. Louis. He has a good track record of acquiring QB's and has an eye for talent at the position.

WR Steve Johnson

At WR, everyone knows Steve Johnson, he hasn't been alone at WR either- David Nelson has a catch-to-target ratio of nearly 75% and provides a great red zone target at 6-5, 215. Shawn Chandler has been effective down the middle for Fitzpatrick. Having a great set of route runners like Johnson and Nelson to go along with a couple of security blankets in Chandler and RB Fred Jackson are a huge help to the Bills' mediocre offensive line.
Speaking of Jackson, he doesn't look like an elite back at all but during his career, he's beaten out two former high-first round picks who were given starting roles ahead of him. He's had a fantastic year and is one of the NFL's best yards-after-contact runners in the game. He seldom gets stuffed and has great hands out of the backfield, too. Former Bills RB Thurman Thomas nailed it this week when he commented on Jackson: 

"People should be kicking themselves in the butt right now and saying 'Why didn't we take a chance on this guy?' He's just an outstanding leader for the Buffalo Bills. He fits the Bills. He fits the Buffalo, New York area,  as far as being a blue-collar guy. He's a perfect example of what hard work and heart will get you." 

Outstanding stuff, Thurman.

DT Kyle Williams

Defensively, Buffalo has few good pieces, specifically guys you've heard of like Nick Barnett and former 1st round pick Leodis McKelvin. Neither one of them is their best defensive player, though. DT Kyle Williams has blossomed into one of the NFL's very finest interior linemen in the league, and rookies Marcell Dareus and Aaron Williams are slowly becoming solid NFL players in their own right and Jairus Byrd is a starting-caliber safety. Buffalo's biggest issue on defense stems from their lack of a pass rush. As stated above, they have just two sacks for the whole season, and that simply won't cut it for a team with playoff aspirations, either. They've been gashed in two of their three wins too, escaping the Raiders and Patriots. They can't expect to sustain that for an entire season, especially when Buffalo's weather turns sour and the passing game slows down.

Unfortunately for the Bills and their fans, the schedule is about to get a great deal more difficult for them. After this week's tilt with the Bengals, they face the entire NFC East and the Jets sandwiching their week 7 bye week. After those games, they face the Dolphins twice, the Jets again, the Chargers, Broncos, and Titans before finishing the season off at New England in the season finale. That's pretty rough. The Bills should be favored in about six of those games and probably lose the rest of them. How they fare within their own division will decide their season.

Verdict: They're for real, but should be taken with a grain of salt. There is still a decent chance they finish 3rd in their division come December. 

Detroit Lions 
Offensive Rank: 10
PPG: 33.7 (4th)
Defensive Rank: 6
PA: 15.3 (3rd)






Team Leaders
Offense:
QB Matthew Stafford (Georgia): 79 of 118 (67%), 977 yards (325.7 ypg), 9 TD, 2 INT, 3 carries, 0 yards
RB Jahvid Best (California): 49 carries, 143 yards (47.7 ypg, 2.9 ypc), 1 TD, 15 receptions, 182 yards (60.6 ypg, 12.1 avg), 1 TD
WR Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech): 16 receptions, 225 yards (75 ypg, 14.1 avg.), 6 TD

Defense:
LB Justin Durant (Hampton): 21 tackles (18 solo), 3 TFL
DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (Nebraska): 3 sacks
CB Chris Houston (Arkansas): 12 tackles, 2 INT, 5 passes defended

If Buffalo built their team through sneaky front office moves and unheralded guys, the Lions are the complete opposite. One look at their offensive leaders tells the story: Stafford, Johnson, and Best were all 1st round picks. This is a team built on "hype" and highly-regarded talent. To that end, they've evaluated and drafted their talent well.

RB Jahvid Best

Offensively, you know what to expect from Detroit- a heavy dose of underneath passes to RB Jahvid Best and TE Brandon Pettigrew or Tony Scheffler. Oh, and they'll probably throw to that Calvin Johnson guy once in a while, too. Nate Burleson is a serviceable possession WR and Titus Young has shown plenty of promise a slot wide receiver for their offense. Detroit has had plenty of issues on their offensive line. Like Buffalo, this is Detroit's weakest offensive link. Unlike Buffalo, their schedule has Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, or Clay Matthews on it six times a year. By comparison, Buffalo's division has one elite pass rusher in it- Miami's Cameron Wake. This issue is even more troubling when you consider the injury history of Matthew Stafford.

FS Louis Delmas

When people talk Lions defense, you know who to talk about, first and foremost. The "House of Spears" provides the spirit and intensity the rest of the defense feeds off of. Going along with Suh is pass-rusher extraordinaire Kyle Vanden Bosch and eventually first-round pick Nick Fairley, who was the nation's most dominant defensive player a year ago at Auburn. However, once you move back through the Lions defense, some problems crop up. Eric Wright and Chris Houston, their starting corners, don't scare opposing passers. SS Amari Spivey is a solid run-support type safety, but his limited range in passing coverage can be exploited. FS Louis Delmas is their lone back-7 stud. In spite of their perceived talent deficiency, this group has played well, held together by their glue, Delmas.
The LB's for Detroit are about as unknown as they come but they're serviceable, especially tackling machine Stephen Tulloch.

Just like Buffalo, the Lions' schedule is about to get a lot stiffer. The rest of the schedule doesn't feature a three-week stretch like the one the Lions have enjoyed over the first three weeks. Apart from games against Denver, Minnesota, San Francisco, and Carolina, the Lions will be slim favorites or underdogs in the rest of their games. Games against the Saints, Packers, Falcons, Bears, Raiders and Chargers will reveal the destiny of these "new" Lions. To that end, we'll see how the former perennial losers of the NFC North handle their new-found success and whether they can adjust to playing with much larger expectations they've ever faced in their brief NFL careers.

Verdict: A fine team but the schedule and division do them no favors. Plenty of promise for the future. I think they're a year away from solid, consistent playoff appearances. The road to the Wild Card is just too difficult in the NFC for Detroit considering that A. the NFC East has three (maybe four) quality playoff-worthy teams this year and B. The NFC South has another 3 playoff-worthy teams and C. The Bears are still a threat in this division.