Recruiting Wars: College Football's Final Frontier

Today's piece is on one of my favorite parts of college football- recruiting! Though the games on the field may have ended in January (or earlier), there's still time to ruin your rival's offseason and help build momentum, hope, and excitement throughout the program if you're a coach. The road to on-field success runs through America's high school and preparatory academies, where the next generation of stars are waiting to be harvested by the leaders of today. These young men represent five of America's best uncommitted high school players.

1. WR Dorial Green-Beckham (Springfield, Missouri- Hillcrest HS)
Scout.com Rank: #1
Rivals.com Rank: #1
ESPN 150 Rank: #3
Who's on his list: Arkansas v. Mizzou v. Texas v. Oklahoma v. Alabama

Beckham has played his recruitment as close to the vest as any top recruit has in recent memory, offering very little beyond short quotes and comments on his two official visits (to Texas and Arkansas). This 6-6, 225 Calvin Johnsonesque monster of a wide receiver has nearly unlimited potential and the silence of his recruitment has only heightened the already huge interest surrounding him. Staying home for Missouri would be a big coup for Gary Pinkel and the Tigers as they move into SEC play. Going to any of the other schools would put him in situations with elite head coaches and give him the exposure only those schools can offer. Arkansas is the best fit, as the Hogs lost their top 3 wide receivers, return Knile Davis at RB and Tyler Wilson at QB to go along with Bobby Petrino calling the plays.

Prediction: Arkansas
Dark Horse: Texas

2. ATH Davonte' Neal (Scottsdale, Arizona- Chapparal HS)

Scout.com Rank: #74
Rivals.com Rank: #107
ESPN 150 Rank: #8
Who's on his list: Ohio State v. Notre Dame v. Arizona

Neal's recruitment has picked up quite a bit recently as both Brian Kelly of Notre Dame and Urban Meyer have come calling to make in-home visits on this speed demon. Neal has two-way ability as both a CB and WR and Meyer reportedly offered him a Percy Harvin role in his spread attack at Ohio State. (He's probably best suited for defensive back.) Kelly and Arizona's Rich Rodriguez have both been seeking Neal's commitment in recent days and weeks. The intrigue of this recruitment is due to Neal's reported interest in staying close to home but while reports state that the only out-of-state program he'd leave home for is Ohio State. Considering the momentum surrounding Ohio State and Urban Meyer, it's hard not to pick the Buckeyes. The hiring of Neal's high school coach by RichRod could tip the balance though.


Prediction: Ohio State
Dark Horse: Arizona

3. DT Eddie Goldman (Washington, D.C.- Collegiate Academy)

Scout.com Rank: #31
Rivals.com Rank: #7
ESPN 150 Rank: #10
Who's on his list: Alabama v. Auburn v. Florida State

The pursuit of Goldman hasn't been quite as crazy or hectic as that of other recruits', but that doesn't mean it's not interesting. The 315 pound monster wants to play in the south and his school choices reflect that. Both Alabama's Nick Saban and Auburn's Gene Chizik have made in-home visits, with Florida State's Jimbo Fisher ready to round off Goldman's in-home visitors. The 'Noles are believed to be the front-runner and have been there from the start.

Prediction: Florida State
Dark Horse: Alabama

4. OT Arik Armstead (Elk Grove, California- Pleasant Grove HS)

Scout.com Rank: #2
Rivals.com Rank: #61
ESPN 150 Rank: #24
Who's on his list: Cal v. Notre Dame v. USC v. Auburn v. Washington v. Oregon

The stories and speculation surrounding Armstead are saturated with the kind of mystery even the best Agatha Christie novels contain. No one really has a definitive clue where he'll go, as seemingly every school on his list has a legit shot. Once considered a lock to attend Cal, Armstead decided to keep his options open once Cal's ace recruiter, Tosh Lupoi, bolted for Washington. There are a trio of other compelling tidbits surrounding Armstead:
1. He is a legitimate DI basketball prospect. Several schools, including Washington and Oregon, are recruiting him as such. I doubt this has as much bearing on his decision as the next two points will.
2. Whatever school grabs him potentially gets the #2 safety prospect in the country, Shaq Thompson, as a package deal. The two are both very close to Lupoi. Thompson, who was originally committed to Cal, was very interested in Washington from the start.
3. His brother Armond, a former defensive lineman at USC, has been released from the school and (allegedly) wants to play with him. Only Auburn and Notre Dame are on his list of preferred destinations.

Prediction: Washington
Dark Horse: Oregon


Reality: Armstead chose to attend the University of Oregon on January 29. 

5. ATH Stefon Diggs (Olney, Maryland- Our Lady of Good Counsel HS)

Scout.com Rank: #6
Rivals.com Rank: #8
ESPN 150 Rank: #13
Who's on his list: Florida v. Auburn v. Ohio State

The nation's best high school WR with two names, Diggs had been narrowed down to SEC rivals Florida and Auburn until Ohio State and Urban Meyer entered the picture, securing a late visit from Diggs. He had a great time visiting Gainesville and talking with the coaching staff there, leaving me with a general sense that the Gators are in the lead. Auburn has a chance, too. Don't underestimate the Urban effect, either.

Prediction: Florida
Dark Horse: Ohio State


You already know this, but recruiting is a terribly inexact science. A multitude of factors go into how players develop- everything from how they're coached, how comfortable they are on campus, team fit, chemistry, the player's work ethic and coachability, etc.
It also bears noting that online recruiting services can be spotty and tend to overrate recruits who sign onto elite programs. Consider the following scouting report (from ESPN's Recruiting Nation Football) on this wide receiver, who recently won the Fred Biletnikoff Award (I redacted the player's name).

"[Name redacted] is a smooth-looking, natural receiver prospect with well-rounded tools at the position. A potential sleeper at this time. He is tall, rangy and layered with good muscle tone. Shows great downfield, big-catch ability with his good size, hands and large catch radius. Displays very good concentration tracking the ball in tight coverage and plucks the ball smoothly in stride. Adequate route running skills: looks smooth snagging short hitches and screens and transitions quickly upfield. Creates adequate separation on intermediate-to-deep routes as well; at times he looks like he is just cruising but can reach top-speed quickly and deceptively accelerate past corners on vertical routes. Tough to press and mirror in off-man with his foot-quickness and fakes. Good vision with loose hips and wiggle after the catch to make the first defender miss and flashes adequate-to-good burst when he finds a seam. However, he is not a burner and lack of top-end speed needed to move the chains at the next level is a concern. Fluid route runner but lacks sharpness and good burst out of his breaks to create consistent separation. Needs to refine that area. Overall, [name redacted] is a well-rounded receiver with the skills to play both slot and wide out at the next level; very solid prospect with big catch ability."

Sounds like a top prospect, doesn't he? Add in the fact that he had offers from four quality Big 12 (but not Texas or Oklahoma) teams, was 6-2 and 190 pounds as a high school senior, and played in a good football state, you'd think he would have garnered a pretty solid rating from the good folks at ESPN (He got a 74 out of 100 and was considered the 139th-best prospect at wide receiver). About 40 of the top 50 guys at his position are players who did absolutely nothing of note in college.
But when you commit to schools considered "good, not great" like Oklahoma State, your recruit ranking will suffer. And he's not the only one. I could run through a list of player after player of top recruits who got chased by all the big-name schools and weren't drafted by the NFL four years later for months. Similarly, I could do the same but vice versa, where I name off tons of guys who got drafted but weren't highly recruited out of high school.

Still wondering about who that wide receiver was? Follow the links.
ESPN Recruiting Nation Profile
Wide Receiver Rankings for that Year
Highlight

I'm not saying this to rain on your parade or be a debbie-downer, I'm just trying to remind you that a bunch of these guys simply won't pan out under the pressure of major college football. Enjoy signing day (February 1) and have a great week. More articles are on their way, I promise!

Breaking Down the FCS Championship Game: Part 2: The Defenses

Three weeks ago, I began my analysis of the FCS Championship game between North Dakota State and Sam Houston State. Today, I talk defense and give you my pick plus game analysis.

TEAM SCHEME- SAM HOUSTON STATE 
Sam Houston State primarily lines up in an exotic 4-2-5 alignment with the 5th defensive back typically being a safety instead of a corner. It is not a true nickel alignment for the very fact that if it were, and they played a 5th corner instead of safety, they would be susceptible to run attacks. This same style is what Texas Christian runs under Gary Patterson and is noted for its heavy emphasis on speed. This mirrors SHSU's emphasis on speed they share on offense as well.
The Bearkats' defense had an excellent season, giving up the fewest rushing yards per game nationally at 69.9 yards per game (2.6 yards per carry). Like most elite defenses in college football, they heavily rotate players and will do across the front 7 with regularity.
Among these front 7 players are two FBS transfers- Andrew Weaver, a junior defensive end from Waco, Texas, and Oklahoma transfer Jarrett Brown, a sophomore defensive linemen. Both players shared SHSU's team lead in sacks this year. The Bearkats' linebackers rotate between four to five players at the positions. With such balanced minutes between the linebacker corps, players who don't start have more tackles than listed starters. The real strength of Sam Houston State's defense is their defensive backfield, the best in the Southland Conference and one of the best nationally. Starting cornerbacks Daxton Swanson and Bookie Snead are excellent man-to-man defenders. Swanson had eight interceptions and eight pass breakups, while Sneed has added three more interceptions and broke up another 12. The real headliner for SHSU is safety Darnell Taylor, the SLC defensive player of the year who led the team in tackles with 118 (81 solo). SHSU rotates three other players at safety. 


TEAM SCHEME- NORTH DAKOTA STATE

The Bison are a true defensive juggernaut and are so because of the huge emphasis the coaching staff has placed on that side of the ball. While NDSU does not have an impressive offense in terms of conference or national rank, they make up for it defensively. They rank first nationally in scoring defense and have stifled nearly every single offense they have faced this year. NDSU's 4-3 alignment is very balanced and no one group is emphasized, though most would agree that the strength of the Bison defense is their defensive line, which runs an LSU-worthy eight deep. 

Coulter Boyer is the leader with nine sacks and his presence frees up NDSU's interior linemen, who clog rushing lanes and provide push up the middle. The linebackers, led by Chad Willson, Preston Evans, and Travis Beck are all fast, interchangeable, and sure-handed. They give NDSU's defensive coaches flexibility to call any number of exotic blitzes or coverages. Adding to the strength of the linebacking corps is safety Colten Heagle, who returned from injury in NDSU's previous game against Georgia Southern and whose strong tackling and aggression make him a fourth linebacker at times. Of course, he wouldn't be allowed to play that way unless the Bison had elite corners. Sophomore Marcus Williams was the headliner, winning All-American consideration and Christian Dudzik and John Pike both add their own skills to the defensive backfield. FS Daniel Eaves won't play versus Sam Houston due to a torn meniscus, but NDSU had to adjust to life without Heagle for most of the year, so the injury is not expected to be catastrophic. 

THE PICK

The biggest x-factor for me going into this game is the long layoff both teams are facing. Given the complexity and unusual nature of the Bearkat offense, giving NDSU almost a whole month to prepare does them no favors. Additionally, since their offense is timing-based, it's fair to question just how sharp it will be early on. All offenses rely on timing to be sure, but looking at the way option teams have fared at the FBS level in games where their opponents have been given time to prepare, it begs the question. To illustrate where I'm going with this line of thinking, consider how Oregon has fared in recent high-profile FBS games. 

Other than a Rose Bowl win this year for Oregon, they had struggled in games where they played against similarly talented teams who had time to prepare- Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, their National Championship Game appearance versus Auburn, and their season opening game against LSU. Each and every one of these games put the Ducks' spread option up against well-prepared defenses. 

Like I said before, all offenses rely on timing to some extent. North Dakota State's power offense is less timing-focused and makes no attempt to conceal what their primary objective is- they want to wear you down with power running. This leads to my next x-factor. NDSU's offensive line outweighs their SHSU counterparts on the defensive line by nearly 40 pounds a man (37). Will the Bearkats' depth and conditioning be enough to keep them afloat in the second half of what could be a close game? Or will they yield to NDSU? I saw only one team this year (Northern Iowa) who was not completely worn down by NDSU's offensive style this year. Because of that ratio of success for NDSU, I'm led to believe that NDSU will succeed in this venture- it's up to the SHSU offense to dictate tempo.

NDSU 34, SHSU 17.