Breaking Down the FCS Championship Game: Part 2: The Defenses

Three weeks ago, I began my analysis of the FCS Championship game between North Dakota State and Sam Houston State. Today, I talk defense and give you my pick plus game analysis.

TEAM SCHEME- SAM HOUSTON STATE 
Sam Houston State primarily lines up in an exotic 4-2-5 alignment with the 5th defensive back typically being a safety instead of a corner. It is not a true nickel alignment for the very fact that if it were, and they played a 5th corner instead of safety, they would be susceptible to run attacks. This same style is what Texas Christian runs under Gary Patterson and is noted for its heavy emphasis on speed. This mirrors SHSU's emphasis on speed they share on offense as well.
The Bearkats' defense had an excellent season, giving up the fewest rushing yards per game nationally at 69.9 yards per game (2.6 yards per carry). Like most elite defenses in college football, they heavily rotate players and will do across the front 7 with regularity.
Among these front 7 players are two FBS transfers- Andrew Weaver, a junior defensive end from Waco, Texas, and Oklahoma transfer Jarrett Brown, a sophomore defensive linemen. Both players shared SHSU's team lead in sacks this year. The Bearkats' linebackers rotate between four to five players at the positions. With such balanced minutes between the linebacker corps, players who don't start have more tackles than listed starters. The real strength of Sam Houston State's defense is their defensive backfield, the best in the Southland Conference and one of the best nationally. Starting cornerbacks Daxton Swanson and Bookie Snead are excellent man-to-man defenders. Swanson had eight interceptions and eight pass breakups, while Sneed has added three more interceptions and broke up another 12. The real headliner for SHSU is safety Darnell Taylor, the SLC defensive player of the year who led the team in tackles with 118 (81 solo). SHSU rotates three other players at safety. 


TEAM SCHEME- NORTH DAKOTA STATE

The Bison are a true defensive juggernaut and are so because of the huge emphasis the coaching staff has placed on that side of the ball. While NDSU does not have an impressive offense in terms of conference or national rank, they make up for it defensively. They rank first nationally in scoring defense and have stifled nearly every single offense they have faced this year. NDSU's 4-3 alignment is very balanced and no one group is emphasized, though most would agree that the strength of the Bison defense is their defensive line, which runs an LSU-worthy eight deep. 

Coulter Boyer is the leader with nine sacks and his presence frees up NDSU's interior linemen, who clog rushing lanes and provide push up the middle. The linebackers, led by Chad Willson, Preston Evans, and Travis Beck are all fast, interchangeable, and sure-handed. They give NDSU's defensive coaches flexibility to call any number of exotic blitzes or coverages. Adding to the strength of the linebacking corps is safety Colten Heagle, who returned from injury in NDSU's previous game against Georgia Southern and whose strong tackling and aggression make him a fourth linebacker at times. Of course, he wouldn't be allowed to play that way unless the Bison had elite corners. Sophomore Marcus Williams was the headliner, winning All-American consideration and Christian Dudzik and John Pike both add their own skills to the defensive backfield. FS Daniel Eaves won't play versus Sam Houston due to a torn meniscus, but NDSU had to adjust to life without Heagle for most of the year, so the injury is not expected to be catastrophic. 

THE PICK

The biggest x-factor for me going into this game is the long layoff both teams are facing. Given the complexity and unusual nature of the Bearkat offense, giving NDSU almost a whole month to prepare does them no favors. Additionally, since their offense is timing-based, it's fair to question just how sharp it will be early on. All offenses rely on timing to be sure, but looking at the way option teams have fared at the FBS level in games where their opponents have been given time to prepare, it begs the question. To illustrate where I'm going with this line of thinking, consider how Oregon has fared in recent high-profile FBS games. 

Other than a Rose Bowl win this year for Oregon, they had struggled in games where they played against similarly talented teams who had time to prepare- Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, their National Championship Game appearance versus Auburn, and their season opening game against LSU. Each and every one of these games put the Ducks' spread option up against well-prepared defenses. 

Like I said before, all offenses rely on timing to some extent. North Dakota State's power offense is less timing-focused and makes no attempt to conceal what their primary objective is- they want to wear you down with power running. This leads to my next x-factor. NDSU's offensive line outweighs their SHSU counterparts on the defensive line by nearly 40 pounds a man (37). Will the Bearkats' depth and conditioning be enough to keep them afloat in the second half of what could be a close game? Or will they yield to NDSU? I saw only one team this year (Northern Iowa) who was not completely worn down by NDSU's offensive style this year. Because of that ratio of success for NDSU, I'm led to believe that NDSU will succeed in this venture- it's up to the SHSU offense to dictate tempo.

NDSU 34, SHSU 17.