1. WR Dorial Green-Beckham (Springfield, Missouri- Hillcrest HS)
Scout.com Rank: #1
Rivals.com Rank: #1
ESPN 150 Rank: #3
Who's on his list: Arkansas v. Mizzou v. Texas v. Oklahoma v. Alabama
Beckham has played his recruitment as close to the vest as any top recruit has in recent memory, offering very little beyond short quotes and comments on his two official visits (to Texas and Arkansas). This 6-6, 225 Calvin Johnsonesque monster of a wide receiver has nearly unlimited potential and the silence of his recruitment has only heightened the already huge interest surrounding him. Staying home for Missouri would be a big coup for Gary Pinkel and the Tigers as they move into SEC play. Going to any of the other schools would put him in situations with elite head coaches and give him the exposure only those schools can offer. Arkansas is the best fit, as the Hogs lost their top 3 wide receivers, return Knile Davis at RB and Tyler Wilson at QB to go along with Bobby Petrino calling the plays.
Prediction: Arkansas
Dark Horse: Texas
2. ATH Davonte' Neal (Scottsdale, Arizona- Chapparal HS)
Scout.com Rank: #74
Rivals.com Rank: #107
ESPN 150 Rank: #8
Who's on his list: Ohio State v. Notre Dame v. Arizona
Neal's recruitment has picked up quite a bit recently as both Brian Kelly of Notre Dame and Urban Meyer have come calling to make in-home visits on this speed demon. Neal has two-way ability as both a CB and WR and Meyer reportedly offered him a Percy Harvin role in his spread attack at Ohio State. (He's probably best suited for defensive back.) Kelly and Arizona's Rich Rodriguez have both been seeking Neal's commitment in recent days and weeks. The intrigue of this recruitment is due to Neal's reported interest in staying close to home but while reports state that the only out-of-state program he'd leave home for is Ohio State. Considering the momentum surrounding Ohio State and Urban Meyer, it's hard not to pick the Buckeyes. The hiring of Neal's high school coach by RichRod could tip the balance though.
Prediction: Ohio State
Dark Horse: Arizona
3. DT Eddie Goldman (Washington, D.C.- Collegiate Academy)
Scout.com Rank: #31
Rivals.com Rank: #7
ESPN 150 Rank: #10
Who's on his list: Alabama v. Auburn v. Florida State
The pursuit of Goldman hasn't been quite as crazy or hectic as that of other recruits', but that doesn't mean it's not interesting. The 315 pound monster wants to play in the south and his school choices reflect that. Both Alabama's Nick Saban and Auburn's Gene Chizik have made in-home visits, with Florida State's Jimbo Fisher ready to round off Goldman's in-home visitors. The 'Noles are believed to be the front-runner and have been there from the start.
Prediction: Florida State
Dark Horse: Alabama
4. OT Arik Armstead (Elk Grove, California- Pleasant Grove HS)
Scout.com Rank: #2
Rivals.com Rank: #61
ESPN 150 Rank: #24
Who's on his list: Cal v. Notre Dame v. USC v. Auburn v. Washington v. Oregon
The stories and speculation surrounding Armstead are saturated with the kind of mystery even the best Agatha Christie novels contain. No one really has a definitive clue where he'll go, as seemingly every school on his list has a legit shot. Once considered a lock to attend Cal, Armstead decided to keep his options open once Cal's ace recruiter, Tosh Lupoi, bolted for Washington. There are a trio of other compelling tidbits surrounding Armstead:
1. He is a legitimate DI basketball prospect. Several schools, including Washington and Oregon, are recruiting him as such. I doubt this has as much bearing on his decision as the next two points will.
2. Whatever school grabs him potentially gets the #2 safety prospect in the country, Shaq Thompson, as a package deal. The two are both very close to Lupoi. Thompson, who was originally committed to Cal, was very interested in Washington from the start.
3. His brother Armond, a former defensive lineman at USC, has been released from the school and (allegedly) wants to play with him. Only Auburn and Notre Dame are on his list of preferred destinations.
Prediction: Washington
Dark Horse: Oregon
Reality: Armstead chose to attend the University of Oregon on January 29.
5. ATH Stefon Diggs (Olney, Maryland- Our Lady of Good Counsel HS)
Scout.com Rank: #6
Rivals.com Rank: #8
ESPN 150 Rank: #13
Who's on his list: Florida v. Auburn v. Ohio State
The nation's best high school WR with two names, Diggs had been narrowed down to SEC rivals Florida and Auburn until Ohio State and Urban Meyer entered the picture, securing a late visit from Diggs. He had a great time visiting Gainesville and talking with the coaching staff there, leaving me with a general sense that the Gators are in the lead. Auburn has a chance, too. Don't underestimate the Urban effect, either.
Prediction: Florida
Dark Horse: Ohio State
You already know this, but recruiting is a terribly inexact science. A multitude of factors go into how players develop- everything from how they're coached, how comfortable they are on campus, team fit, chemistry, the player's work ethic and coachability, etc.
It also bears noting that online recruiting services can be spotty and tend to overrate recruits who sign onto elite programs. Consider the following scouting report (from ESPN's Recruiting Nation Football) on this wide receiver, who recently won the Fred Biletnikoff Award (I redacted the player's name).
"[Name redacted] is a smooth-looking, natural receiver prospect with well-rounded tools at the position. A potential sleeper at this time. He is tall, rangy and layered with good muscle tone. Shows great downfield, big-catch ability with his good size, hands and large catch radius. Displays very good concentration tracking the ball in tight coverage and plucks the ball smoothly in stride. Adequate route running skills: looks smooth snagging short hitches and screens and transitions quickly upfield. Creates adequate separation on intermediate-to-deep routes as well; at times he looks like he is just cruising but can reach top-speed quickly and deceptively accelerate past corners on vertical routes. Tough to press and mirror in off-man with his foot-quickness and fakes. Good vision with loose hips and wiggle after the catch to make the first defender miss and flashes adequate-to-good burst when he finds a seam. However, he is not a burner and lack of top-end speed needed to move the chains at the next level is a concern. Fluid route runner but lacks sharpness and good burst out of his breaks to create consistent separation. Needs to refine that area. Overall, [name redacted] is a well-rounded receiver with the skills to play both slot and wide out at the next level; very solid prospect with big catch ability."Sounds like a top prospect, doesn't he? Add in the fact that he had offers from four quality Big 12 (but not Texas or Oklahoma) teams, was 6-2 and 190 pounds as a high school senior, and played in a good football state, you'd think he would have garnered a pretty solid rating from the good folks at ESPN (He got a 74 out of 100 and was considered the 139th-best prospect at wide receiver). About 40 of the top 50 guys at his position are players who did absolutely nothing of note in college.
But when you commit to schools considered "good, not great" like Oklahoma State, your recruit ranking will suffer. And he's not the only one. I could run through a list of player after player of top recruits who got chased by all the big-name schools and weren't drafted by the NFL four years later for months. Similarly, I could do the same but vice versa, where I name off tons of guys who got drafted but weren't highly recruited out of high school.
Still wondering about who that wide receiver was? Follow the links.
ESPN Recruiting Nation Profile
Wide Receiver Rankings for that Year
Highlight
I'm not saying this to rain on your parade or be a debbie-downer, I'm just trying to remind you that a bunch of these guys simply won't pan out under the pressure of major college football. Enjoy signing day (February 1) and have a great week. More articles are on their way, I promise!
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