2012 Big XII Preview

1. Oklahoma (11-1)

2. Texas (11-1)

3. Oklahoma State (10-2)

4. West Virginia (9-3)

5. TCU (9-3)

6. Kansas State (8-4)

7. Baylor (5-7)

8. Texas Tech (5-7)

9. Iowa State (3-9)

10. Kansas (3-9)

1. Oklahoma had an interesting season in 2011, to put it mildly. What started out as a National Championship chase quickly devolved into a disappointing 3-loss season, highlighted by a home loss to Texas Tech and a blowout in the Bedlam Game authored by in-state rival Oklahoma State. Toss in the loss of Ryan Broyles turning Landry Jones into Tim Tebow and many Sooner fans were left wondering just what the hell happened in 2011. 2012 is chock-full of promise for OU. That’s not to say that there aren’t sore spots. The offseason has been anything but “off” in Norman. The Sooners lost two projected starting offensive linemen when All-Big XII C Ben Habern was forced to “retire” after neck surgery and starting RG Tyler Evans tore his ACL shortly thereafter, crippling OU’s offensive line depth. This all came after coach Bob Stoops gave the boot to starting WR Kameel Jackson. Yes, turmoil has been the name of the game in the offseason for Oklahoma. No team, except maybe Penn State will be happier to be back on the field on opening day. On paper, Oklahoma looks like a legitimate National Title threat even with the loss of those players. Jones is back and hopefully over the disaster that was his 2nd half of 2011, as is RB Dominique Whaley, who gave the Sooners’ running game a big boost in 2011 before getting injured. The defense figures to improve under the coaching of new defensive coordinator Mike Stoops, who rejoins his brother after a stop in Tucson. After the question marks on offense, the Sooners’ other major concern has to be their schedule. It’s backloaded, starting with a home date vs. Notre Dame and concluding with road games at West Virginia and TCU sandwiching their rivalry game against Oklahoma State.

Pick a QB, any QB

2. 2012 figures to be a landmark year for the Texas program. The struggles Mack Brown and Co. have had to face on the field since Colt McCoy led the Horns to the National Championship in 2009 has created an uneasy feeling around the program, which has in turn led to restless fans getting a bit more impatient with the program. The heat is definitely on Texas in 2012. Luckily for Texas, the Horns’ defense is one of the very best in the nation, featuring two studly defensive ends in Jackson Jeffcoat and Alex Okafor, along with a solid secondary featuring safety Kenny Vacarro as its anchor. For the 3rd straight year in Austin, the onus is on the QB position. Is David  Ash to guy? Is it Case McCoy? That’s the key for Texas, especially since their skill positions and offensive line are well-regarded. LSU might have a deeper set of RBs, but pound-for-pound, the RB corps in Texas is absolutely disgusting. Each of their top three tailbacks would be starters at nearly every other DI program, except maybe Wisconsin and Oregon. Malcolm Brown figures to be the starter, but expect a healthy dose of bruiser Joe Bergeron and electrifying freshman Jonathan Gray, one of the most accomplished RBs in the history of Texas high school football.

He's a man, he's 40, and he still doesn't get any respect

3. It’s not often that a team that rips through the Big XII, obliterates Texas and Oklahoma along the way, goes 12-1, and wins a BCS bowl gets no respect heading into the next season. Yet that’s exactly where the Pokes find themselves in 2012. Of course, it’s also not often that a team has to replace a first-round draft pick at QB and WR who just happened to be 2 of the school’s greatest ever at the position. Regardless, the track record is still there for Mike Gundy’s team. Even better, Oklahoma State returns its top 3 rushers from last year. Even so, with a freshman scheduled to start at QB, a regression at the position is to be expected. Overall, Oklahoma State only returns 4 starters on offense, but that’s Gundy’s forte. I expect him and OC Todd Monken to have the Pokes rolling on offense by the end of the season. Defensively, the Pokes won’t be confused with Alabama or LSU, but they were opportunistic and plenty good enough to slow down the other team enough for the Cowboys to win 12 games. With 8 starters back, that unit should remain stable and improve with another year of experience. Oklahoma State has earned the benefit of the doubt and I will call for a surprise 10-win season from them again.

For old time's sake:

4. West Virginia joins TCU in a move from a “lesser” conference to the big-time, as the Mountaineers left the comfortable confines of the Big East for the mighty Big XII. While it’s great that the Mountaineers figure to have the conference’s best offense (or very close to it), they still have to face the fact that their defense will be severely tested. That’s not a huge problem in the woeful Big East and it won’t be too much of a problem in the Big XII, since defense has been optional in the conference since Oklahoma shifted to its current hurry-up style five or six years ago. Still, Big XII offenses are on a completely different level than the Big East’s style and skill levels. I expect a sizable regression across the board for the Mountaineers’ defense, especially with their top two DE’s gone. While many regard this transition as a hand-in-glove fit because of Dana Holgorsen’s familiarity with the Big XII from his days at Oklahoma State, the reality is that there will likely be an adjustment period for West Virginia. Road games to Oklahoma State and Texas will be difficult and the mid-season gauntlet of Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma will make-or-break this team’s season.

5. Although I picked West Virginia to finish higher this year, I expect TCU to be the better team over the next decade in the Big XII, so long as Gary Patterson remains as their head coach. TCU’s unique style of defense will keep the Horned Frogs competitive and their offense, underrated during Patterson’s tenure because of that defense, will be more than enough to hang with the Big XII’s juggernauts. As for 2012, it looks like a bit of a retooling job, as the Frogs must replace half of their starters from last year, including three offensive linemen. Patterson has historically done a good job of filling holes through player development, but the jump from the Mountain West to the Big XII is a steep one. There will be growing pains for the Horned Frogs. Even more troubling is the schedule. Though TCU has an excellent shot at bowl eligibility thanks to an easy seven-game stretch to open the season, the schedule is terribly back-loaded. TCU’s final five games in order are at Oklahoma State, at West Virginia, home against Kansas State, at Texas, and the season finale at home versus Oklahoma ouch. I hope QB Casey Pachall has been eating his Wheaties this offseason.

6. Kansas State was one of the feel-good stories of the college football season. They were also one of the most entertaining, as Bill Snyder enjoyed one of his finest seasons during his time in Manhattan. The Wildcats were fun on offense and played in a ton of close games, winning most of them. Unfortunately, they got left out in the cold when it came time for BCS Bowl bids, but overall, it was a fine season. Much like 2011, the expectations aren’t as high going into the season. Though K-State brings back 14 starters, including Heisman candidate Collin Klein, there are a couple factors pointing against them in 2012. The most glaring one is of course the fact that they won no fewer than 8 close games in 2011. It’s a little unreasonable to expect the Wildcats to repeat that kind of success in 2012, so expect a couple extra losses tacked on to this year’s record. Secondly, the offensive line has three new starters. It’s great that most of Kansas State’s primary skill position players are back, but the offensive line remains a question mark for now. Even though Kansas State returns 14 starters, including their best players on offense (Klein) and defense (LB Arthur Brown), I expect a regression in 2012.

7. 2011 was a year for the record books in Baylor, as the team enjoyed what will probably go down as the single-greatest season in school history. The Bears won 10 games, featured the Heisman Trophy winner at QB, and beat Oklahoma for the first time, ever. Much like Oklahoma State, the 2012 edition of their team has some major holes to fill. Robert Griffin is gone, as is top Big XII rusher Terrence Ganaway and top WR Kendall Wright. It’s difficult to put a number on just how many games the Bears ought to lose with those three players gone. Much like Kansas State, Baylor survived on the skin of their QB’s teeth and won four close games in 2012, suggesting a major relapse. The Bears still have the upside to win 8 games, if QB Nick Florence is up to the task of replacing Griffin. The most intriguing player on the roster is new RB Lache Seastrunk, a former top recruit who left Oregon.

8. Texas Tech was mostly pitiful and occasionally mediocre in 2012, but they scored one of the biggest upsets of 2011 when they beat 28-point favorite Oklahoma in Norman. Despite that trophy on their mantle from 2011, the Red Raiders missed a bowl. This year’s team looks much stronger with 17 returning starters despite their 0-5 finish to the season last year. This year’s schedule opens with 3 likely wins and if the Raiders can pull off the occasional upset, the odds are good that the Raiders will return to a bowl in 2012. That’s about all they can reasonably hope for.

Probably won't be too many
Gatorade baths for Rhoads this year

9. Just like Texas Tech, the Cyclones were usually mediocre, mostly playing the Charlie Brown to the Big XII’s Lucy, but they too scored a huge victory in 2011. Though the long-term ramifications of that win may not be truly realized for a couple years, the Cyclones are a program on the rise. It’s difficult to see them competing for the Big XII crown very often, considering their competition, but the work head coach Paul Rhoads has done here has been very impressive. This year, Iowa State has a chance at a bowl game with 7 returning starters on offense (though they did lose OC Tom Herman to Ohio State), but the schedule is not kind. Non-conference games against Tulsa and Iowa will be tough and the usual Big XII schedule features trips to Oklahoma State, TCU, and Texas along with home games against West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Kansas State. It’s hard to see Iowa State reaching a bowl in 2012.

10. The next few years of Jayhawks football will likely decide if they go the way of Indiana, Duke, and Kentucky or go in the direction of UCLA or North Carolina. For the 2nd time in the last four years, Kansas has a new coach. This time, the chance went to Charlie Weis, who was last seen ruining Florida’s offense. Though he doesn’t have the expectations he had while at Notre Dame in his prior head coaching job, he also won’t have the resources he did to win games. The Jayhawks were fortunate in that they were able to bring in QBs Dayne Crist and Jake Heaps as transfers. Kansas will likely be better on QB, but not much anywhere else.

All Big XII Team

Malcolm Brown

QB Geno Smith, West Virginia

RB Malcolm Brown, Texas

RB Dominique Whaley, Oklahoma

WR Kenny Stills, Oklahoma
WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
WR Josh Boyce, TCU

TE Travis Tannahill, Kansas State

OT Lane Taylor, Oklahoma

OG Blaize Foltz, TCU
C Joe Madsen, West Virginia

OG Josh Jenkins, West Virginia
OT  LaAdrian Waddle, Texas Tech

Brodrick Brown

DE Alex Okafor, Texas

DT Jamarkus McFarland, Oklahoma

DE Stansly Maponga, TCU
DE Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas

LB A.J. Klein, Iowa State
LB Arthur Brown, Kansas State
LB Jake Knott, Iowa State
DB Brodrick Brown, Oklahoma State
DB Carrington Byndom, Texas
DB Kenny Vacarro, Texas
DB Ahmad Dixon, Baylor

K Quinn Sharp, Oklahoma State

P Tress Way, Oklahoma

KR Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State

Ten Players to Watch

Klein

QB Collin Klein, Kansas State

DB Nigel Malone, Kansas State

RB Jonathan Gray, Texas

WR Stedman Bailey, West Virginia

QB Landry Jones, Oklahoma

QB Blake Bell, Oklahoma

RB Lache Seastrunk, Baylor

QB Seth Doege, Texas Tech

DB Quandre Diggs, Texas

LB/DB Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma

2012 Pac-12 Preview

North: 

1. Oregon (11-1) 

2. Stanford (10-2) 

3. California (7-5) 

4. Washington (7-5)

5. Washington State (5-7) 

6. Oregon State (4-8)

South:

1. USC (12-0) 

2. Utah (10-2) 

3. UCLA (6-6) 

4. Arizona (4-8)

5. Arizona State (3-9)

6. Colorado (2-10) 

North

Mariota

1. Taking a look at Oregon’s roster, it’s no far stretch to claim this is the best Oregon team since Joey Harrington prowled the sidelines for the Ducks almost a decade ago. Despite youth at QB and road trips to USC, Cal and rival Oregon State, this Ducks team is a virtual lock for double-digit wins and a return trip to the Pac-12 Championship. It’s a testament to how great a job coach Chip Kelly has done in Eugene that the Ducks could lose 11 starters, including a two-year starter at QB and their top rusher of the past three years yet still maintain a spot near the top of the AP Poll. The Ducks are reaching 90’s Florida State levels of poll dominance and popularity. (For those wondering what I’m talking about, Florida State was a stone cold lock to start and finish the year in the Top 5 for nearly all of the 1990’s. Oregon is getting awfully close.) Naturally, the QB position will be the most closely scrutinized it has been since Darron Thomas stole the job from Nate Costa a couple of years ago. This time, it’s redshirt frosh Marcus Mariota stealing the job from expected starter Bryan Bennett thanks to a fine spring. Mariota evoked memories of Dennis Dixon and his speed will be a dimension that Oregon has not had at QB since the days of Dixon. I expect the Ducks to enjoy more rushing productivity from their QB position, with less passing efficiency until Mariota settles into the job by mid-season. At RB there will be no drop-off as Kenjon Barner returns along with speed demon (and Dark Horse) Heisman candidate De’Anthony Thomas, who was last seen stealing the show in the Rose Bowl. Defensively, this is defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti’s best unit (during his time under Kelly). It was inexperienced in the secondary last year, but most of the underclassmen they had to play were forced to grow up fast, a huge boon to 2012 Oregon’s defense. The front seven is stout and will generate plenty of pressure.

Naturally, all eyes will be on Los Angeles on November 3rd, when the Ducks travel to USC for part two of a day that will most likely feature two matchups between every team ranked in the top 4 at the time (LSU hosts Alabama).

Skov

2. Most people expect a regression from Stanford, and that’s fair. Anytime you lose leadership the caliber of Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck in consecutive years, a noticeable drop-off is to be expected. With that being said, the 2012 Cardinal won’t be too far behind where the last two years’ versions were. They bring back 13 starters, including 7 on a defense that was the Pac-12’s best all-around unit. In keeping with the style Harbaugh and current coach David Shaw prefer, they’ll be stingy on the lines and the front-7 is one of the best in the country. Bringing back Shayne Skov, Chase Thomas, and Trent Murphy to supplement their strong defensive line will keep Stanford competitive. Skov and Thomas figure to be among the Pac-12’s best chances to win the Butkus award and might be the best 1-2-3 punch at LB since USC had Rey Maualuga, Brian Matthews, and Clay Matthews in 2008. The main issue everyone wants to debate concerning Stanford lies at QB, where Brett Nottingham and Josh Nunes battled during the spring, offseason and fall camp. Regardless of whoever wins the job, it’s obvious they won’t be as good as Luck was. That’s where Stanford’s strong offensive line and talented stable of running backs (including freshman Barry Sanders, Jr.) will be key. Their expected level of performance will be essential to keeping Nunes upright and confident as defenses won’t be allowed to pin their ears back and attack him all game. As is the case with rookie QBs in the NFL, it helps to give first-year starters at QB some safety blankets. That’s where TEs Levine Toilolo and Zach Ertz come in. The Cardinal’s schedule is one of the more challenging ones in the Pac-12. They have road games versus Oregon, UCLA, California, and Washington, and they drew USC out of the south as well. Toss in a mid-season cross-country trip to Notre Dame and you have a schedule that will force Nunes to grow up, quickly. Stanford should be favored in all of those games, except the USC and Oregon games and has an excellent shot at double digit wins for a 3rd straight season so long as Nunes is efficient. He doesn’t have to be Andrew Luck.

There better be some answers
on that sheet, Jeff

3. Cal has had problems with consistency since the end of mid-2000’s, when they were a pain in USC’s side and a legitimate threat to win 9+ games a year under Jeff Tedford (thanks in no small part to efforts made by Aaron Rodgers and Marshawn Lynch). The last five years have not been kind to the Golden Bears. Part of the problem has obviously stemmed from the rise of Oregon and Stanford, but the majority has come from Tedford’s inability to find QBs to run his offense. The Bears have produced legitimate pro prospects at nearly every other position during that time frame, but they have been well-below average at QB. This year, Tedford has his QB back, but only 10 other starters are returning from a team that went 7-6 in 2011. The unknown dynamic surrounding Cal in 2012 is how their return to Memorial Stadium will go. Last year they played essentially 12 road games, as they had to travel even for home games. The Bears drew a long straw when it comes to schedule, as they got 5 Pac-12 home games, including the Pac-12 North’s top 3 teams in Oregon, Stanford, and Washington. They do have three brutal road games on their schedule in 2012- visits to Ohio State, USC, and Utah will push the young Bears. If QB Zach Maynard can build off his encouraging finish to the season in 2011 and find ways to get the ball to stud WR Keenan Allen and RB Isi Sofele continues Cal’s tradition of 1,000 yard backs, the Bears might surprise. The Bears are a lock to reach a bowl again in 2012 and have an outside chance at representing the Pac-12 North as long as they can beat their interdivisional opponents at home.

4. The last time we saw Washington, they were getting blistered by Baylor and Robert Griffin in the Alamodome. Even so, don’t let that image, however ugly, color your view of the 2012 Huskies. This program has steadily grown and improved under Steve Sarkisian. Despite several key losses, including top rusher Chris Polk, this might be the best Washington team since Cody Pickett played here. Despite that, Washington may be a case of a team that shows improvement everywhere except on the field. They have five difficult conference road games and face a road trip to LSU in week 2. Given the massive improvement the Pac-12 has undergone, the Huskies might struggle to reach bowl eligibility, but I still foresee them reaching the 7-win mark for the 3rd straight year under Sarkisian, ultimately setting the table for 2013.

5. Washington State has been one of the buzziest teams of the offseason, and it’s pretty simple to figure out why. They hired in one of the few coaches in college football that can win in any situation, Mike Leach. Despite the ugly way his Texas Tech career ended, the Pirate has a fantastic track record, winning over 80 games during his tenure in Lubbock. Washington State is the Pac-12’s version of Texas Tech. It will take time for the Cougars to reach the level his best Red Raider teams were at, but this program finally has an element of positive momentum they haven’t had since they finished #9 in the final poll of 2003. Until Leach can bring in the kinds of players he needs for his Air Raid scheme, expect lots of yards, points and sacks for the Cougars’ offense.  This is a program on the rise, but they will need to show patience with Leach.

6. Oregon State was once a perennial threat to be the team that no one saw coming every single season, but the last couple of years haven’t been kind to Beavers, as they have struggled across the board, winning just 8 games in the previous two seasons. There is some upside here, as QB Sean Mannion appears to have the skill set to run coach Mike Riley’s scheme and they do bring back 15 returning starters. For some, this is a potential bowl team, but I only see the Beavers topping out at 4-5 wins, tops. If they want a bowl game in 2012, they’ll need to upset a major Pac-12 rival, a tough task.

South

1. The most overused phrase of the 2012 offseason that doesn’t concern playoffs has to be “USC is back.” Whether or not that’s actually true (and it appears to be that way), the immediate future in Los Angeles looks as sunny as ever. USC is loaded this year. They aren’t deep, but their starting 22 (15 returning starters) is as good as any. The important key for USC, as has been beaten into the ground by every other prognosticator is health. USC absolutely cannot afford any more injuries, especially on defense. Post-spring projected starting DE Devon Kennard is already gone for the year and defensive line is not USC’s strongest unit, a red flag to me. When it comes to national championship-worthy teams, I like to start in the trenches and under center. Luckily for Lane Kiffin, the Trojans are as well-accommodated as any at the QB position. Heisman Trophy favorite Matt Barkley returned with his eyes set on Miami (the site of the 2013 NCG) and he has plenty of friends to help him out, including All-America candidates Robert Woods and Marqise Lee at WR and Khaled Holmes at C. The men of Troy also gained a nice boost to their rushing attack when Silas Redd left Penn State for L.A. USC’s schedule is nice and pliable, with the exception of three key games. The September 15 game at Stanford will test the Trojans’ front 7 depth and physicality. The October 4, Thursday night road game to Utah is easily the most dangerous game on the schedule for USC. It’s in primetime, in altitude, and against a Utah team that gave USC a tough game in 2011 and will be coming off a bye week. The final game that should scare USC is their duel with the Ducks, a rivalry that has grown in recent years to be one of the nation’s best and must-watch for TV for those who love offense. With all their talent, USC has a great chance at running the table, but they will need to beat Oregon twice to reach another BCS Championship game.

2. My favorite unheralded team of this upcoming season is the Utah Utes. Not only does Kyle Whittingham’s team bring back 16 starters, including likely All-American DT Star Lotulelei, but they also drew a great schedule that avoids both of the Pac-12 North’s major teams. That coupled, with a home game versus USC, gives Utah a great chance at double digit wins and an outside chance at the BCS, possibly giving the Pac-12 a legitimate case for sending three teams. The lynchpin of the season will of course be at quarterback, where Jordan Wynn returns. It remains to be seen with him if he has gotten over a shoulder injury that hampered him last year. If he is better, and I expect he will be, the rest of the offense will flow smoothly. John White is easily one of the best BCS conference players you’ve never heard of and his presence will make this a solid offense.

3. One of the teams I have had a historically difficult time predicting has been UCLA, especially recently. Former coach Rick Neuheisel recruited well during his time there, but ultimately the Bruins struggled to stay competitive with USC and Oregon in the Pac-10/12. Some of the blame will rightfully be attributed to QB injuries, but the majority of it will be placed  on Neuheisel for not instilling the proper discipline and attention to detail in his players. UCLA decided to go completely opposite of Neuheisel, bringing in Jim Mora. Mora has stressed discipline and brought an NFL-style practice philosophy to Westwood in an effort to rectify these issues. In the short time after he started, he recruited hard and was able to secure a solid class to supplement the bevy of returning starters the Bruins have back, including 9 on defense. UCLA gets five Pac-12 home games and avoids Oregon, giving them a great chance at another bowl game. If you buy recruiting rankings, UCLA has the talent to do a lot better than the 6 or 7 wins they’re projected for, but it will be up to Mora and new OC Noel Mazzone to develop and solidify UCLA’s QB position.

4. As one of the four Pac-12 teams with a new coach, the future in Arizona is full of optimism. Rich Rodriguez was brought in a year after his brutal time at Michigan came to an abrupt end. The interesting thing about Rich Rodriguez in the Pac-12 is the inherent “newness” he will bring. No teams other than Oregon run the spread option all that commonly and no one runs his 3-3-5 stack defense. I’m a believer in being counter-cultural (as it applies to college football) and challenging a conference used to high-flying passing attacks by running the ball and using the option makes Arizona a team to watch in the next couple of years to see if they can bridge the gap between them and USC in the South Division. The Wildcats bring back only 12 starters and drew both Oregon and Stanford as road games, along with Utah on the road, meaning this will likely be a rebuilding year. Changing to Rodriguez’s offense does not happen overnight but I do expect Arizona fans and the administration to be patient with him.

5. New Sun Devils coach Todd Graham recently referred to the mind-set of the program under Dennis Erickson as “free spirited.” It’s clear that he has work to do in Tempe. Arizona State only brings back 8 starters and must replace a 2-year starter at QB in Brock Osweiler. Luckily for Graham, he does get one of the Pac-12’s best RBs in Cameron Marshall back. Even so, ASU has only 8 returning starters overall and the program has struggled recently, meaning it will be up to Graham to restore momentum to a program that lost it over the last four seasons. He will also face increased scrutiny after the manner in which he departed Pittsburgh.

6. Colorado has certainly fallen a long way from the level they were at in the early 2000’s, when UC was a regular threat to reach the Big XII title game. Nowadays, Buffaloes fans just want to see bowl eligibility. Sadly, it appears that 2012 won’t be any kinder to the Buffaloes than any of the last few years (no winning seasons since 2005). Bringing back one of the Pac-12’s most inexperienced teams (9 returning starters, only 8 seniors on roster), coach Jon Embree has one of the toughest jobs in college football ahead of him as he works to bring Colorado back to relevance. Colorado has an easy non-conference schedule and 5 Pac-12 home games, but drew each of the Pac-12’s five best teams.

All Pac-12 Team

Barner

QB Matt Barkley, USC
RB Stepfan Taylor, Stanford

RB Kenjon Barner, Oregon
WR Robert Woods, USC
WR Keenan Davis, Cal
WR Marquess Wilson, Washington State

TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Washington

OT Matt Summers-Gavin, Cal

OT Kevin Graf, USC

OG Carson York, Oregon

OG Erik Kohler, Washington
C Khaled Holmes, USC

Lotulelei

DE Josh Shirley, Washington

DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
DT Aaron Tipoti, Cal

DE Dion Jordan, Oregon

LB Dion Bailey, USC
LB Shayne Skov, Stanford
LB Chase Thomas, Stanford
DB Nickell Robey, USC
DB Desmond Trufant, Washington
DB John Boyett, Oregon
DB TJ McDonald, USC

K Andre Heidari, USC

P Jeff Locke, UCLA

KR De’Anthony Thomas, Oregon

Ten Players Not on This List You Should Watch Anyway

Price

QB Keith Price, Washington

RB Cameron Marshall, Arizona State

RB John White, Utah

DE Wes Horton, USC

RB Isi Sofele, Cal

WR Marqise Lee, USC

RB Jonathan Franklin, UCLA

C Sam Schwartzstein, Stanford

DE Ben Gardner, Stanford

QB Sean Mannion, Oregon State

2012 Fantasy Draft Diary

We’re coming to you live from the St. Joe’s Church basement in Moorhead, Minnesota for the 5th annual Shanley Alumni Draft! Even though it's not on most people's calendar, this is still one of the great days of the year for me. Hang out with 11 (mostly) cool guys and make fun of everyone there for any reason possible. The league, for the third straight year, is still comprised of me, Kevin (the commissioner), Ben, Jerry, short Dan, taller Dan, Paul, Miko, Bob, the still kinda new guy Josh, Greg, and Krosby. Though it's technically the 5th league draft in its history, this league dates back almost a decade to our high school years, when an intrepid high school freshman had the audacity to make fun of his English teacher for owning Wayne Chrebet. Let the draft diary begin! But first, some pre-draft notes:

We decided our draft order by drawing NFL rookie’s names out of a hat and using the order they were drafted in to decide our own draft order. I drew Chandler Jones, so I’m stuck picking 12th in the draft this year. At least we find out in April. I spent months honing and fine-tuning my strategy for the 12th pick and I’ve narrowed it down to two distinct styles I prefer. Plan A right now is a leaf right out of the Matthew Berry 2012 Draft Day Manifesto: go QB-TE early. The prevailing theory behind this is that you win leagues in weekly increments and QBs score more than any other position and TEs are the 2nd-most consistent position. The NFL is a passing league- it’s wisest to follow the lead and keep up with the trend. Benchmarks like 4,000 yards aren’t as impressive as it once was. You need a stud to keep up with other studs.

This one will be contingent on me getting Matthew Stafford, my #4 QB, at the minimum. Cam Newton, the only player of any note on my team last year still interests me at 12.

Ideally, I’d love to get Brees, but that’s not likely. I’d use the next 7-8 rounds getting value at RB and WR. If Gates does slip to the 4th, I might take him to pair with Gronk. (The league has a WR/TE flex.) We’ll see how it goes.

Plan B is more traditional- grab the best two and safest runners early- preferably two of Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, and Jamaal Charles. I’d have to wait on getting a QB

10:10 AM- Jerry, Dan J, Kevin and I are here an hour early and doing a hilarious “grab-bag” draft. First round is an association with that manager (we say said manager's name and the room calls out the first thing they think of), 2nd round is Top NFL players of 1998, 3rd round is dictators, 4th round is games, 5th is your favorite colleague. A great new idea is born. Can’t say I’ve ever argued over who was worse, Mao or Stalin. Other highlights include giving Krosby Mitt Romney in the first round, and Josh the name of his twin sister. Equally hilarious is when people start to trickle in as draft starting time approaches, only to look at the board in confusion when they see "Justinian" on there. 

11:06- We’re 6 minutes late. After a 20-minute discussion and presentation on the merits of the Empire League (as proposed by Paul Charchian of leaguesafe.com), I am starting to get pretty anxious. I just want to see who I can get. I'm basically tuning out all of the complicated arguing. I'm practicing my Matthew Stafford hand-writing for when I put it on the board.  

11:19- The league trophy ceremony begins…the draft is only a really boring speech away from starting.

11:20- Short Dan's speech is a train wreck, as he attempts to dedicate the draft to the white board we're using. I'm starting to get bad vibes from him in regards to how his draft ought to go...

11:22- The draft is finally on. First pick: a surprising choice as Ray Rice goes. The next owner, Miko can’t believe it- he was apparently totally set on Ray Rice at 2nd overally. He sits in a daze looking over his rankings wondering who he should take. I’m betting it’s Foster.

11:23- Eventually he recovers and takes Aaron Rodgers.

11:28- The first “what the hell?!?!” moment of the draft occurs as Drew Brees is gone at pick #5 (after Tom Brady at #4). If our draft was like the NFL Draft and we had a green room to invite the top five players, LeSean McCoy would have a Brady Quinn/Aaron Rodgers look on his face as he wonders how he went from pre-draft lock to be gone in the top 4 to outside the top 5. The commissioner chimes in, “Just goes to show, you think you know how the draft will go and it never, ever does.”

11:33- Normalcy is slowly returning, as Calvin Johnson goes at #7, followed by Stafford, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden and Andre Johnson. Damn. I was really hoping Stafford would fall to me at the end of the round so I could pair him with Gronkowski. I’ve got to figure out whether I should take Cam or just take the RB-RB approach and take Forte and Murray.

11:37- Screw it, I’m going to gamble and worry about running back later. Cam Newton, back for Round 2! There’s no way he’ll get 14 rushing TD’s, but there’s no way he’ll average the measly 217 he did in the 2nd half of 2011, either. I’d sacrifice a few rushing TDs for more passing yards and TDs. Ben remarks, “right out of the Matthew Berry manifesto.” Glad to see the rest of the league is keeping up with the Joneses, even if most of us are more secretive than Bill Belichick’s injury reports.  

11:38- The first round has concluded and the results are staggering- 5 QBs went in round one. Kevin is incredulous. After thinking hard about Forte, Murray, and Charles, I decided I want an elite QB. As I’ve said before, Cam is the NFL’s Michael Jordan.

11:43- The reigning champ makes the first questionable pick, grabbing Maurice Jones-Drew. I guess he’s not planning on defending his crown all that closely.

11:51- Round 2 has gone basically according to schedule. After Gronk went to lead off the round, it didn’t take long for a WR run to start, followed by a burst of RBs thrown in. Jimmy Graham goes 3 picks after Gronk.

11:59- Another strange pick- Peyton Manning goes at pick #3 in round 3. I was totally expecting almost everyone else to wait on QBs after the binge in round one. I guess someone believes in Peyton. Kevin lobs a barb at Greg, the resident Broncos fan in the league about missing out on his boy.

12:02- Kevin takes one of the guys I had on my must-have list as he grabs Jordy Nelson. The way I see things developing in Green Bay’s receiving corps is for Nelson to continue to get more and more targets. This is starting to look a lot like the mid-90’s Antonio Freeman-Robert Brooks duo the Packers had. Nelson will supplant Jennings, just as Freeman did. I’m calling it right here, right now.

12:04- Ben follows Kevin by taking Wes Welker, proclaiming his strategy is to take “safe, boring, and consistent players.” About half of the other owners reply with some variation of “your drafts are always boring- what’s new?” Gotta love the smack talk.

12:07- I take a long look at the guys who figure to be available. Stunningly, consensus Top 10 running back Ryan Mathews is still on board. I hate him as a player, but he’s still pretty solid in fantasy and this kind of player wouldn’t have been available normally at the end of round three. He might slip. The late-2nd round run on running backs has paved the way for more people to take WRs. If this continues, I might just be able to snag a Mathews-New York Giants WR combo at the turn.

12:10- Dammit! Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks go back-to-back right after Trent Richardson, the other back I was hoping for at the end of the round go. I can just see Greg taking Mathews. Which would suck. I’d be stuck with Michael Turner or Ahmad Bradshaw as my top RB. Not a pleasant thought. Turner is getting up there and Bradshaw is made of saran wrap. No and no. Not here, anyway.

12:15- Mathews manages to fall to me. I already knew I was going to take him if he fell, but the last two rounds weeded out most of the WRs I wanted here. I’m stuck looking at Dwayne Bowe, who just showed up to Chiefs camp after holding out briefly or Mike Wallace, who just showed up to Steelers camp after holding out briefly. It’s practically even for me. I like Kansas City more than Pittsburgh. Bowe it is.

12:27- Nothing terribly exciting happens for the next 24 picks. Each guy goes in a part of the draft that suits him and makes sense. It’s a testament to how strong our owners are when it comes to preparation.

12:32- I’m thinking RB with my next pick. Most of the guys I wanted next are going to be gone as I sit and wait. Though I don’t love him, BenJarvus Green-Ellis looks to be the safest of the bunch.

12:34- BJGE fell to me, so I now have at least one RB I can count on getting the rock and showing up each week. What to do with my 2nd sandwich pick, though? I’d like to get another WR to complement Bowe, but the ones here after Torrey Smith don’t catch my eye. I suppose I could take a Reggie Wayne or Pierre Garcon. They’ll both be heavily target by talented rookies, and as Newton showed last year, even rookies can lead to a career renaissance for vets with gas in the tank. I’m tempted to go TE here. Our league has a WR/TE flex, which means I can play Gronkowski as a WR (where he’s still elite, even though he’s a TE), and grab a guy like Vernon Davis or Jermichael Finley. I trust Finley more- better QB, safer play, and a stronger supporting cast around him.

12:37- It just hits me, as Eli Manning and Jay Cutler both get taken that Tony Romo and Mike Vick are still around. Though they have their critics, they’re still really good fantasy QB’s. I bet they’ll be gone by the end of the round.

12:42- Three picks later, Mike Vick is gone. Jerry, who I’m sitting by had commented on how great the QB values are here and his disbelief that Vick is around. After taking Vick he pumps his fist, which earns a disappointed f-bomb from Josh. I figured Josh would’ve been glad to be shot of Vick after taking him at #1 overall last year, but I guess he’s still a fan. Now for the Tony Romo/Philip Rivers watch to begin.

12:54- Most of the rosters, with the exception of the reigning champ, look pretty good. The champ followed up his dubious MJD pick by taking Miles Austin, otherwise known as Ben’s man-crush from 2010. Austin of course has a history of hamstring issues and what do ya know? He’s got another hammy injury this preseason. At this rate, Tony Romo and Blaine Gabbert are starting to look similar, a bad sign for Tony. Both guys fail in the clutch more often than not and feature horrible offensive lines to go with banged-up WRs. I’m skeptical that the league is really that down on Romo. He’s still the QB of a good offense and his receivers should get healthy.

1:03- We reach the end of the 6th round and Romo isn’t gone yet. Kevin continues to piss me off by taking guys I wanted (this time Stevan Ridley) and Miko joins in by taking Pierre Garcon. After my trade with the commish last year, I’m starting to wonder if he’s reading my mind and just taking guys I like on purpose or he’s really that clever. I’m guessing a little of both. Miko just got lucky.

1:03- Dan takes Matt Ryan, a pick I hate. Someone please explain how having two elite WRs and an old TE makes him suddenly better than Romo or Rivers, both of whom are still around. Even if Julio Jones and Roddy White combine for 3,000 yards and 28 touchdowns, that still leaves the rest of Atlanta’s average offense to tack on the remaining 1,500 yards and 10 TDs it will take for Ryan to join the elite at the position in fantasy.

1:04- Dan follows Ryan up with Reggie Wayne. Three of the last six picks have been guys I had my eyes and heart set on. That’s the only problem with such a competitive league. You’ll get screwed a few times.

1:14- We get to Josh, who asks if Matt Schaub is still available. I nearly fall out of my chair. Does everyone realize that Romo and Rivers are available? What the hell’s going on here? Did someone prank the rest of the league by cutting Romo’s name out of all of their rankings?

1:21- Jerry finally ends the madness by taking Romo to back up Vick. Back-to-back QB is an unorthodox strategy, but I love the pick. Romo is still good and he’s great insurance for Vick, who, to no one’s surprise, is already hurt. I’m debating skipping on a dime-a-dozen RB and taking Rivers with my next pick to supplement Cam in case he struggles. If he doesn’t, I’ll still have great trade bait. It’s win-win for me.

1:24- Paul pulls a Kevin and takes Ben Tate, who I surely would have taken along with Rivers here. Bob, the Arian Foster owner, looks a little disappointed. That’s what you get for taking Robert Meachem instead of the best backup RB in fantasy.

1:25- I take Rivers. Like I said above, it’s win-win for me. He’s too strong a value to justify not taking him in favor of some bargain bin RB like Kevin Smith.

1:25- Time for our mid-draft break. Time to get up, walk around a bit and make some backhanded compliments on who other owners drafted or just make fun of Miko’s Dolphins for taking Ryan Tannehill.

1:30- The draft resumes. During the break I had a major internal argument. I desperately need another RB to tide me over until Mathews can return from his injury. I’m thinking Cedric Benson, who looked good for the Packers in limited duty, Rashad Jennings, who takes over until MJD’s holdout ends, or Mark Ingram.

1:45- Picks are rolling along. Guys have ideas of what they have needs at and are building their rosters accordingly. Nothing eventful happens until Ben f-bombs Miko for taking Titus Young with the 2nd pick of round 9. I’m reminded of a classic, if brief SHS Alumni League story.

A few years ago, before the 2007 season started, I had decided that I was going to try to draft Tony Romo for my team that year. He wasn’t as highly rated then as he would later be, so I figured he would be a great value in the 7th or 8th round, more or less. The league wasn’t nearly as competitive then, as we still had a couple of doormats in the league. One guy in particular made a habit of finishing in the basement and making weird draft picks. Anyway, that year, I was fully expecting Tony Romo to be there in round 8, but our league ne’er-do-well took Romo in the 3rd round, prompting a slew of expletives from me, which in turn drew out a number of laughs at both the absurdity of the pick and my reaction to it. To this day, fellow owners still like to bring this up.

1:50- Ben returns the favor to me, taking preseason darling David Wilson. I had my eyes set on Wilson, being well-acquainted with his talents after watching his career at Virginia Tech. Josh takes a leaf out of his book, grabbing Denarius Moore, a big-time athletic talent who showed flashes of dominance as a rookie in 2011. This is starting to piss me off- I’ve been hosed at least four times in the draft.

Unusually, Jerry hasn’t screwed me once. This is in direct opposition to last year, when he got me at least four times. I don’t really remember the exact number. I’m trying to forget my 2011 season. (Thanks a lot, Jamaal Charles.)

1:51- Despite my whining, I do like my team- Cam and Gronk, along with Mathews, Green-Ellis, Benson, plus Bowe, Finley, and Rivers. Not too shabby.

2:15- The War Room has gotten uncharacteristically quiet. Either the sugar rush from all the donuts and orange juice has worn off, or these guys are actually thinking about their picks. One can never be too sure with Krosby, who has somehow managed to make a handful of boneheaded picks (as opposed to the usual half-dozen).

2:28- Scratch what I said about Krosby. He just took Montario Hardesty. I don’t care that he has Richardson. Bad, bad, bad pick. Hardesty is a horrible fit for the Browns’ West Coast offense.

3:15- With the draft and me being the only one with a functional computer, it’s time for me to plug our rosters into a program that will digest the numbers and tell us who the best team should be. Though the projections are from early June, it still doesn’t excuse the fact that it spits out the defending champ for the 2nd straight year. I hate fantasy football sometimes. After his annoying trophy acceptance speech from earlier, his equally annoying celebration of the computer’s analysis has me counting down the days until our first fantasy matchup.

***END***

2012 Big Ten Preview

Leaders:

1. Wisconsin (11-1)

2. Ohio State (11-1)

3. Illinois (8-4)

4. Purdue (7-5)

5. Penn State (5-7)

6. Indiana (3-9)

Legends

1. Michigan State (10-2)

2. Nebraska (9-3)

3. Iowa (9-3)

4. Michigan (8-4)

5. Northwestern (5-7)

6. Minnesota (4-8)

The Big Ten was not terribly hard to predict at the top of the league- the hard part with these guys is figuring out 3-5 in each division and the records. I could feasibly see as many as seven teams with the ability to win 10 games this year, if they get the right breaks. No Big Ten team scheduled particularly hard out of conference outside of the Michigan teams.

Leaders

Chris Borland and Mike Taylor

1. The Badgers are the safest pick in college football to win their division. What they do in the conference title game is anybody’s guess. I hope Bret Bielema sent flowers to NCAA president Mark Emmert, as the NCAA slammed Penn State in the wake of the now-infamous Freeh Report and they slapped a one-year bowl ban on Wisconsin’s chief rival in their division, Ohio State. While I could definitely see a year where Ohio State has more wins than Wisconsin and maybe even beats them in Madison that simply won’t be enough to knock Wisconsin out of the Big Ten Championship game. The Badgers were lucky this offseason twice over- they get Montee Ball back, and Maryland transfer Danny O’Brien came over to replace Russell Wilson and saved Bielema from having to use on his own recruits at the position. Wisconsin has the league’s best running back combo in Ball and James White and they also feature the league’s best LB duo heading into 2012, with tackling machines Mike Taylor and Chris Borland (293 combined tackles) both returning what should be an improved defense for the Badgers. With an easy non-conference schedule and home dates with Michigan State and Ohio State on the docket, the stage is set for Wisconsin to run the table.

Meyer and his new QB

2. The runaway choice as the Big Ten’s most interesting team to watch heading into 2012 has to be the Ohio State Buckeyes. After a brutal transition year started off by Jim Tressel’s untimely dismissal and the suspension of four key players and the first losing season since 1988, Ohio State stole the offseason headlines when they managed to lure former Utah and Florida head coach Urban Meyer out of retirement. Meyer promptly got to work, bringing in a strong recruiting class and hiring an excellent staff that brought back 2011 interim Luke Fickell and held onto several other coaches left over from the Tressel administration. Now comes the hard part for Meyer- he has to complete the transition for Ohio State from a power running team with a dual threat QB to a spread option attack. Luckily for Meyer, he has the right QB as Braxton Miller showed plenty of promise as a freshman and will be a better fit than any other incumbent QB Meyer inherited at his past coaching jobs, as well as a defense that returns 9 starters. The problems with Ohio State number four. First off, Ohio State’s offensive line will have three new starters added to a unit that was average at best in 2011. Secondly, the offensive skill positions aren’t full of promise after Miller. Meyer will need to work hard on the field and in recruiting to fix this. Next, the linebackers are not deep. Ohio State already dismissed starting middle linebacker Storm Klein in July after an incident. Finally, the defensive backfield did not play up to expectations in 2011. Though the non-conference schedule isn’t rough by any measure, Ohio State’s Big Ten schedule is the most difficult of the 12 teams in the conference. They play the divisional favorites on the road and also get Illinois, Nebraska, and a road game to Penn State, as well. Ohio State does have the talent to exceed double-digit wins, but I expect this to be somewhat of a restructuring year for the Buckeyes as Meyer reshapes the program in his image.

3. Illinois had a really weird season in 2011. It’s hard to believe they started 6-0, considering where they finished. Their non-conference schedule wasn’t terrible, as they played a 10-win Arkansas State team and Arizona State, beating each of them. Issues started in conference play for Ron Zook, who was let go and replaced by Tim Beckman, the former Toledo coach and the architect of one of college football’s secretly good offenses while with the Rockets. As is often the case when a new coach is hired, they enter a good situation with a lot of returning starters. The Illini bring back 7 on each side of the ball and the Illini were solid on each, especially on defense. Though Whitney Mercilus is off to the NFL, this is still one of the better units in the Big Ten. If the conference wasn’t as stacked as it is at LB, Jonathan Brown would be a top candidate for All-Big Ten honors. On offense, expect Beckman to simplify the offense for Nate Scheelhaase in an effort to avoid a repeat of last year’s 2nd half swoon. Illinois’s schedule isn’t great- they have road games at Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, but they will be favored in every single one of their other games. If they can pull an upset or two, 10 wins is not out of the question.

4. Purdue is a carbon copy of Illinois in 2012. Plenty of returning starters (15), a returning QB, plus a schedule that will see the Boilers favored at least six times. They manage to avoid the Legends Division’s top two teams. It’s a good thing this is coach Danny Hope’s deepest team, since the Boilermakers have had tons of injury issues over the last 3 seasons. There is a distinct shot at another bowl for Purdue, but they will be hard-pressed to top last year’s 7 wins.

O'Brien has plenty to worry about in 2012 and beyond

5. I need not say anything about Penn State that has not been over-discussed and dissected by the media. As much as their team suffered off the field, they will suffer on the field. Penn State has only four returning starters, a brand new coach, and a schedule that will make bowl eligibility difficult to pull off (knowing full well that they aren’t eligible in 2012). The Nittany Lions will still be serviceable on defense, as their starting front seven has managed to avoid a lot of issues due to transfers and the like. While QB play will likely improve under Bill O’Brien, the Lions were atrocious at passing in 2011 and the loss of their two best offensive weapons, plus TE Kevin Haplea only portends more trouble on offense in 2012.

6. Indiana is one of an exclusive triumvirate of basketball powerhouses who are mostly atrocious at football (joined by Duke and Kentucky). Indiana may be improved in 2012, as they return 14 starters to a team that lost four close games in 2011. However, their schedule is not well-suited to getting the Hoosiers back to a bowl game. Their non-conference schedule should see them favored in 3 games, but they will be underdogs for the rest of the season. Improvement on the field likely won’t be replicated in the win column in 2012.

Leaders

All eyes in East Lansing will be
on junior QB Andrew Maxwell

1. Michigan State’s program has taken off in recent years, suggesting that former Ohio State assistant Mark Dantonio has this program rolling in a manner similar to the way his former program rolled under Dantonio’s old boss, Jim Tressel. While the deck is stacked against Michigan State given that they play second fiddle to Michigan and Ohio State in their top recruiting hotbeds, Sparty has shown that he can hang with and beat both in recent years. With that being said, it should come as no surprise that they are my pick to win the Leaders for the second straight year. Though they must replace QB Kirk Cousins, RB Edwin Baker, and their top two wide receivers from last year, I expect Michigan State to play at a level close to where they did last year offensively. New QB Andrew Maxwell, although inexperienced, has been learning the position under Cousins for three years and has better measurables than Cousins. I don’t expect too much of a regression. Defensively, State looks great again with 8 returning starters from a unit that only allowed 18 points and 277 yards a game last year. Their schedule isn’t as favorable as last year’s, as they must travel to Michigan and Wisconsin and also drew Ohio State from the Legends division. Tack on Boise State and Notre Dame to their non-conference schedule and you’re looking at a potential difficult schedule. Nevertheless, I expect Dantonio to have this team ready to play and for the Spartans to return to the Big Ten championship game for a second straight year.

Martinez

2. Bo Pelini has taken a great deal of flack in recent years as the Huskers have underwhelmed in each of his four years in Lincoln, losing four games each year like clockwork. This year, the potential is still there for four losses, but the Cornhuskers return 14 starters, seven on each side of the ball and are looking at a weaker division than they faced last year, all signs that suggest improvement in 2012. The trouble is the schedule, the toughest in the Big Ten. Nebraska drew the top two teams from the Leaders division in Wisconsin and Ohio State, plus they still have to face road trips to Michigan State and Iowa in the last month of the season. For Nebraska to climb the summit in the Big Ten in 2012 will require QB Taylor Martinez to show more improvement in the passing game than he did from year one to year two of his time as the starter. Nebraska must also replace last year’s top two defensive players in DT Jared Crick and LB Lavonte David, both of whom left for the NFL. If Martinez improves, Nebraska has a good shot at the Big Ten title game, but their schedule suggests at least three in-conference losses at minimum.

Kirk Ferentz

3. Given their struggles in 2011, picking Iowa to finish 3rd in the legends division may seem like a stretch. Once look at Iowa’s schedule tells you all you need to know as to why I think they have a great chance at exceeding last year’s 7 wins. Their in-conference schedule is also favorable as they avoid both Ohio State and Wisconsin and their only two tough road games are to Michigan and Michigan State. Kirk Ferentz has done a great job in Iowa City and has always managed to field competitive teams no matter how inexperienced the roster may be. Though they must deal with the loss of yet another RB, the return of QB James Vandenburg gives Iowa the Big Ten’s best passing QB and a great shot at nine wins with an outside chance at reaching the Big Ten championship game if they can upset both Michigan teams on the road. I expect a strong bounceback year for the Hawkeyes.

4. Last year’s Michigan team was one of the most entertaining teams in college football as they played in two of the best games of the season (Notre Dame and the Sugar Bowl) and featured one of the most dynamic QBs in the country in Denard Robinson. New coach Brady Hoke won Big Ten Coach of the Year and the media raced to declare Michigan as being “back” after their 11-win season. This year, expectations will be higher than ever despite a much more difficult schedule and the loss of several key contributors on both sides of the ball. Michigan must play its four of its five toughest opponents outside of Ann Arbor, as they meet Alabama in Dallas and must also travel to Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State this year. The schedule coupled with the fact that Michigan won a number of close games in 2011 suggests a downturn in Brady Hoke’s second season. Also not suggesting an improvement is the fact that Michigan recovered 80% of all fumbles in 2012, a number that will surely go down in 2012. This is a program on the upswing but improvement will probably not be noticed in the win department this year.

QB Kain Colter

5. Northwestern has had a fine run under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, who enters his 7th year in Evanston. He has led an impressive turnaround for the Wildcats, as they have been bowl eligible in each of the last four years. This year, the Wildcats have the fewest starters returning outside of Penn State, but their schedule is not terribly difficult. They must travel to Michigan for two road games and face Vanderbilt in the non-conference, but every other game will see NW either favored or as only a slight underdog, with the exception of Nebraska. If their new starters acclimate well to bigger roles, they could reach another bowl under Fitzgerald. That being said, I expect a much more difficult year for the Wildcats and they will struggle to reach bowl eligibility for an unprecedented 5th straight year.

6. Other than Indiana, no team has had a rougher 3 year stretch in the Big Ten than Minnesota. The Gophers have not only failed to reach a bowl each season but they have developed a bad habit of struggling with teams from inferior conferences. After mercifully ending the Tim Brewster era of Gopher football, Minnesota hired noted program builder Jerry Kill from Northern Illinois, who has made a career of rebuilding programs at three different levels of college football. Heading into the second year under coach Kill, I expect the Gophers to improve. Their schedule starts off with four games that the Gophers should be favored in, but gets much harder as the Gophers must face road games to Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Nebraska. With only 12 returning starters, getting off to a good start would be a good building block for this struggling program to get back on its feet after a few years of miserable play.

All-Big Ten Team

Ball

QB Denard Robinson, Michigan

RB Montee Ball, Wisconsin

RB Rex Burkhead, Nebraska

WR Jared Abbrederis, Wisconsin

WR Keenan Davis, Iowa

WR Antavian Edison, Purdue

TE Jake Stoneburner, Ohio State

OT Ricky Wagner, Wisconsin

OG Spencer Long, Nebraska

C Travis Frederick, Wisconsin

OG Brian Mulroe, Northwestern

OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan

DE John Simon, Ohio State

DT Johnathan Hankins, Ohio State

Short

DT Kawann Short, Purdue

DE William Gholston, Michigan State

LB Chris Borland, Wisconsin

LB Mike Taylor, Wisconsin

LB Gerald Hodges, Penn State

DB Johnny Adams, Michigan State

DB Micah Hyde, Iowa

DB Isaiah Lewis, Michigan State

DB C.J. Barnett, Ohio State

K Drew Basil, Ohio State

P Brett Maher, Nebraska

KR Jared Abbrederis, Wisconsin

Ten Players Not on This List You Should Watch Anyway

Gray

QB Braxton Miller, Ohio State 

QB Marqueis Gray, Minnesota

DB Jordan Kovacs, Michigan

DE Baker Steinkuhler, Nebraska

RB James White, Wisconsin

RB Le’Veon Bell, Michigan State

KR Raheem Mostert, Purdue

DE Denicos Allen, Michigan State

LB Jonathan Brown, Illinois

DE Noah Spence, Ohio State