NBA Predictions for 2012

Eastern Conference

Atlantic
Boston Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers
Brooklyn Nets
New York Knicks
Toronto Raptors

Southeast
Miami Heat
Atlanta Hawks
Washington Wizards
Orlando Magic
Charlotte Bobcats

Central
Indiana Pacers
Chicago Bulls
Detroit Pistons
Milwaukee Bucks
Cleveland Cavaliers

Western Conference

Northwest
Oklahoma City Thunder
Denver Nuggets
Utah Jazz
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers

Pacific
L.A. Lakers
L.A. Clippers
Golden State Warriors
Phoenix Suns
Sacramento Kings

Southwest
San Antonio Spurs
Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas Mavericks
New Orleans Hornets
Houston Rockets

Figuring out the Yankees' Offseason Puzzle

As you have no doubt heard, the Yankees' season is over. While this is less of a surprise than my original MLB predictions would have led one to believe, this may turn out to be Pyrrhic victory for the AL. Yes, the Yankees are dead and buried for 2012, but the Tigers series surely had to inform the Yankees of their present issues- issues they will no doubt address going into Spring Training.

Who's Gone
Like a lot of teams, the Yankees have a number of players who are not going to be back. That list as of this moment is as follows:
1. Russell Martin
2. Eric Chavez
3. Raul Ibanez
4. Andruw Jones
5. Jayson Nix
6. Ichiro Suzuki
7. Chris Stewart
8. Casey McGehee
9. Freddy Garcia
10. Rafael Soriano (player option)
11. Clay Rapada
12. Derek Lowe
13. Hiroki Kuroda
14. Nick Swisher
15. Andy Pettitte

Wow. Obviously there are a few big names on here- of these, I expect Jones, Chavez, McGehee, Stewart, Garcia, Soriano, Rapada, Lowe, and Swisher to be near-locks to leave the Bronx for greener pastures after the season. That's mostly well-and-good for the Yankees. They might have some big names, but most of these guys are easily replaceable players.
The interesting cases in here are Soriano, Kuroda, Ichiro, and Pettitte. Soriano has an opt-out clause that he will most likely use in an attempt to find bigger dollars somewhere else. Kuroda, Pettitte, and Ichiro all had one-year deals. Pettitte has indicated a desire to return again, and the Yankees would be foolish not to take him up on that offer. Kuroda is an interesting topic- he was the Yankees' most consistent pitcher all season and had a fine year and even better postseason. If the Yankees can bring him back at a similar rate for another year, they should try that. There's always the odd chance he'd leave, but I expect the Yankees to put the full-court press on to bring him back. If they can bring Pettitte along for the ride, the Yankees' rotation will again be one of baseball's best. (If this scenario occurs, expect a rotation of CC Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, and 2012 injury casualty Michael Pineda.)

(I'll get to Ichiro in a bit.)

Three names weren't on the above list that need to be brought up, as their roster spots aren't locks. The first and most-discussed will be Alex Rodriguez. After yet another atrocious and embarrassing postseason for the former MVP third baseman, the Yankees would be well-served to seek possible alternatives to him in the offseason. If they feel the need to unload A-Rod's behemoth of a contract ($28M a year for the next five years), they will do so only by eating a substantial chunk of the contract- around 80-90% of the remaining salary and finding a willing trade partner. If I were Brian Cashman (and today I am thankful I am not), I'd seek every possible opportunity to dump A-Rod on another team.
The second name not mentioned but whose spot in the Yankees' roster is potentially up for grabs is Curtis Granderson, who had a postseason that could only be described as a left-handed version of Alex Rodriguez's. Granderson has been a solid player for the Yankees since they acquired him from the Tigers a few years ago, but it's hard not to think he's peaked as a hitter and ballplayer. I'd put the chances of Granderson not returning at around 40%.
Lastly, the only question not being mentioned on a national scale is the Mariano Rivera question- will he come back? If so, how effective will he be? For the record, Mo has indicated that he intends to return to the Yankees next spring.

The Replacements
Considering all the offensive productivity the Yankees would need to replace under the above scenario and the Steinbrenner's professed intent to get payroll to $189M while simultaneously competing for the World Series every year, this will be one of the most difficult and challenging offseasons of Cashman's career. He will need to find players to fill in at two of the Yankees' outfield positions, third base, catcher, and find another couple of good bullpen arms to supplement Rivera and David Robertson. Also, he'd need to retool the Yankees' bench. Going under this scenario, here's how the Yankees' 25-man lineup and pitching staff in 2013 projects

C ???
1B Mark Teixeira
2B Robinson Cano (expect the Yankees to exercise their option on him)
3B ???
SS Derek Jeter
LF Brett Gardner
CF ???
RF ???
DH ???

Bench
Raul Ibanez (expecting him back after his postseason)
Eduardo Nunez

Rotation
Starters:
CC Sabathia
Hiroki Kuroda
Andy Pettitte
Phil Hughes
Ivan Nova
Michael Pineda

Bullpen:
Mariano Rivera
David Robertson
Boone Logan
Joba Chamberlain

I expect the Yankees to carry 14 position players and 11 pitchers. Considering that 10 of the 11 pitching spots aren't open, I'll let that sort itself out. Most likely, an in-house candidate like Pedro Feliciano or David Aardsma will present himself as a worthy addition to the bullpen, as will the odd man out of the rotation, whether it's Hughes, Nova, or Pineda.

The lineup is another question entirely. If the Yankees follow my plan, they will be looking at trying to fill holes at four positions and designated hitter, plus three other bench spots for a whopping total of eight open positions. The smart money may be on the Yankees to bring back Granderson, but it's a move I thoroughly disagree with. Much of 2012 and especially October should have proven to the Yankees how badly a home run dependent offense becomes when it is forced to deal with elite pitching. Knowing this and that Granderson isn't good enough at getting on base to utilize his above average speed to manufacture runs, why bring him back? They'd be better off building around a couple of sluggers (Teixeira and Cano) while emphasizing their speed with Gardner. This is where Ichiro steps in. He had a fine second half with the club and hit somewhat well in the playoffs (comparatively speaking). His veteran presence in a locker room that might be a lot younger next year will be important, as will his still-reliable bat and decent speed. Pair him with a healthy Gardner and the Yankees' outfield would combine for over 70 stolen bases, easily. With Ichiro back on a short deal (that's the key to this), the Yankees would be left trying to fill third base, catcher, and centerfield.
The hottest name on the market, and one who also fits the Yankees' needs for power in the outfield while being a more well-rounded play is of course Josh Hamilton. The only way he comes to New York is if the Yankees can get him a fair price ($18-21M) and for an appropriate number of years (anywhere from two to four). Hamilton is likely to want at least a nine-figure contract, which would likely price him out of the Yankees' plans. It's hard to imagine how devastating Hamilton would be in Yankee Stadium for 81 games a year. It's also equally hard to figure out how he'd handle his off-field demons in a city like New York. It makes for a fascinating risk-reward discussion.
If the Yankees don't like the price of Hamilton, they could turn their attention to players like B.J. Upton and Shane Victorino, both of whom don't carry the demons that Hamilton has and also would balance out New York's lefty-heavy lineup with their right-handed bats. Upton will be 28 next year, but the addition of an outfielder capable of 20 homers, 40 steals, and above average defense at a rate cheaper than Hamilton would be well worth looking into. Hamilton would be better earlier in his deal than Upton, but Upton holds more long-term value and less baggage, making him the smarter add. The Yankees could pursue a trade, but given their farm system's lack of depth, pulling off a blockbuster might cost too much in terms of player capital. They'd be better served proceeding with a free agent, who would only cost the Yankees money.
With their outfield filled, the Yankees would be left to resolve their issues at third base and catcher. With Martin most likely out of the picture, the Yankees could go internal with their top catching prospect, Austin Romine. Asking a young catcher to handle a pitching staff with as many veterans as the Yankees' would be a cause for concern, but he'd also be cheaper and by most accounts, is basically a finished project as a minor leaguer.
With every position except third base filled, the Yankees would have to focus their attention there. The Yankees could opt for a platoon, as they did early in 2009 when A-Rod had hip surgery and was unavailable for the first weeks of the season. This time around, the Yankees would have no prospect of A-Rod, so they'd have to find guys they could play there all year. After looking at the free agent options, one name sticks out to me as a nice fit- Kevin Youkilis. While not the same player he once was, Youk's right handed bat, still-decent batting eye, and ability to play either corner infield position would give the Yankees versatility and the ability to rest Teixeira more often in 2013. With the White Sox unlikely to pick up a $13M option on a 33-year old third baseman like Youkilis, the odds are good that Youkilis might have a chance to end up in the Bronx. (I'd even bet he'd love the chance to stick it to the Red Sox 18 times a year.)

After all that, where does that leave the Yankees' lineup? Let's take a look.

SS Derek Jeter (R)
CF B.J. Upton (R)
2B Cano (L)
1B Teixeira (S)
3B Youkilis (R)
DH Ibanez (L)
RF Ichiro (L)
C Austin Romine (R)
LF Brett Gardner (L)

It's a little short on power, but what the Yankees would lack in home run ability, they'd make up for with defense, run creation and pitching. It's also hard to figure out where to place Upton and Ichiro in the order. Knowing that Cashman will supplement the bench with three more useful players after Nunez and that he would add one or two more pitchers for their bullpen, it would appear the Yankees would be on their way to an offense better suited to October baseball.

Weighing the Legitimacy of the BCS Contenders

To start off today's post, I must first issue an apology for my lengthy delay between posts. My weekends have been rather busy, which interrupts my football viewing. However, it's not all bad news- on October 27, I will be coming to you live from Norman, Oklahoma, where I will take in the highly anticipated Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma game (and more than a few steaks, ribs, and fried chicken sandwiches).
Back to business. Today's post will weigh the pros, cons, and x-factors for each of the Top 5 BCS teams, plus the other half-dozen teams with legitimate chances at winning the national championship. The current BCS top 5 is Alabama, Florida, Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame.
Let's start with the Crimson Tide.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0)
BCS Average: .9761

To no one's surprise, the Tide rolled in at the top of the inaugural 2012 BCS standings. Despite a somewhat pedestrian schedule, this is where they belong. After starting the year with a dominant win over Michigan in the Kickoff Classic in Cowboys Stadium, Alabama proceeded to annihilate their next five opponents by an aggregate score of 202-31. Even after the departures Alabama suffered last summer, the Tide has ridden their dominant offensive line and newly improved QB A.J. McCarron to their usual lofty heights. It's gotten to the point with McCarron that I think it's fair to say he's the best quarterback Nick Saban has ever coached in college. His development, coupled with the usual impressive Saban defense and special teams has kept the Tide in college football's pole position. They don't get style points for their workmanlike method of winning games, but they get the job done. It does need to be noted that after the Michigan win, none of those wins came against currently-ranked teams, but the luxury of playing in the SEC guarantees Alabama a chance to gain their fair share of impressive wins. Alabama's upcoming schedule features dates with Mississippi State, LSU, and Texas A&M, plus their SEC Championship game opponent, provided they sidestep each of those landmines. With the SEC East so improved, it won't matter who Alabama plays in the SEC Championship provided it's one of Florida, South Carolina or Georgia.

Future prognosis: As an undefeated, they control their destiny and their .700 point edge in the BCS standings over 2nd-place Florida gives them a degree of wiggle room. I fully expect to see the Crimson Tide in Miami in January.
2nd Half X-factor: Amari Cooper, WR - I've given some love to A.J. McCarron but for him to continue his strong season, he'll need contributions from Cooper, who has stepped up nicely while Alabama dealt with injuries on offense. It's weird to be even having this discussion, but some are still debating what Alabama's offensive identity is. Even with McCarron playing so well, they're still a smashmouth team, but they'll need contributions from the receiving corps.

2. Florida Gators (6-0)
BCS Average: .9092

I have to give it up to Phil Steele- he nailed the Gators in his preseason preview magazine. The Gators once again sit atop the SEC East despite the hellish mess the Gators had at quarterback in July. Since then, the situation has resolved itself as Jeff Driskell took the reigns and ran with them. His play, coupled with the arrival of Mike Gillislee as a legitimate All-SEC caliber running back has turned the toothless Gators offense of 2011 into a mean, rugged offense hell-bent on beating the piss out of their opponents. As for the Gators defense, no one is surprised that a unit compromised of the leftovers of Urban Meyer's last binge of 4- and 5-star recruits has morphed in LSU East under Will Muschamp. Add the two up and you have one stupid blogger who picked the Gators to win 8 games.
The best news that Gators fans could hear is that they're done travelling this year. That's right- the Gators don't have a single game outside the state of Florida. The schedule is even harder than Alabama's- after a home date with the Ol' Ball Coach, the Gators get to play Georgia. Their last game is their annual tilt with Florida State- a game that won't matter in the SEC but could decide who ends up in the 2nd or 3rd place in the final BCS standings.

Future Prognosis: Just like Alabama, Florida controls its destiny. However, their schedule is devastating. I expect at least two losses by the end of the year for Florida- one courtesy of their SEC brethren (good luck figuring out who) and another from either FSU or their SEC championship game opponent.
2nd Half X-factor: Andre Debose, WR/KR - Yes, it seems like Debose has been in Gainesville since 2005, but he's still there. With Florida's passing game still a work in progress, they need another wideout to step up. Debose has the speed and quickness to make plays, and they'll need him even more down the stretch.

3. Oregon Ducks (6-0)
BCS Average: .8993

No, that loud noise you heard on Saturday wasn't a tanker full of SEC Kool-Aid driving through a flock of ducks- it was Duck fans everywhere spluttering in disbelief as they saw Oregon slide into the BCS at #3, easily the biggest surprise of these first rankings. Oregon has been exactly what we expected this year- great on offense and improved on defense. Despite this, the Ducks came in at third thanks to a schedule even more pitiful than Alabama's. They have made mincemeat of that schedule, to be sure, but their schedule is about to get a lot more difficult. 

Future Prognosis: I hate to keep repeating myself, but the Ducks control their own destiny. Two games with USC won't be fun or easy for the Ducks, even with USC's offensive line struggles and less-than-imposing defensive front seven.

2nd Half X-factor: Marcus Mariota, QB -  It has to be Mariota, right? He's never been tested on the road, so it's anybody's guess how he reacts during Oregon's upcoming road schedule, especially at USC.

4. Kansas State Wildcats (6-0)
BCS Average: .8963

The Wildcats are the rare Big XII team that still plays defense, a testament to the genius that is head coach Bill Snyder's calling card. I know that Nick Saban is considered the consensus best coach in college football, but give me Snyder. Saban has won big at LSU and Alabama....not exactly Manhattan, Kansas. I love people who can make chicken salad out of chicken shit and that's exactly what Snyder has done throughout both of his tenures at KSU. Lots of folks, yours truly included, had the Wildcats pegged for a regression after the 2011 season featured a plethora of close wins. That hasn't turned out to be the case, as the KSU gravy train has kept rolling for Collin Klein and co. Just like the other three teams ranked ahead of them, the schedule is about to get a lot more difficult. It's worth noting that KSU got their toughest game out of the way early, winning at Oklahoma. 

Future Prognosis: Kansas State controls their own destiny to a degree, but unlike Alabama and LSU, they can't afford a loss. Also, they don't have a conference championship game to pad their resumes with, either. KSU will be walking the straight-and-narrow for the rest of the year. 

2nd Half X-factor: Nigel Malone, CB - Malone was one of the Big XII's best corners last year but his production has dropped off a little bit in 2012. Considering that KSU's future schedule includes dates with the passing offenses of West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor in the NEXT FIVE weeks, the Wildcats will need him to step up in a big way to stay alive in the BCS hunt.

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-0)
BCS Average: .8774

As the runaway winner of the award for "most hyped" story of the 2012 college football season, the Irish are back....or are they? I confess myself surprised at Notre Dame's resurgence this year. Coach Brian Kelly deserves a lot of credit for adapting his offense from the pass-heavy spread he ran at Cincinnati into a power rushing attack. Even more impressive is that he's managed to do so while juggling a freshman at QB with Tommy Rees. It's the weirdest QB committee I've ever seen- Everett Golson usually starts, but Kelly has no qualms about throwing Rees in if Golson has any issues at all. Making it even weirder is the efficiency of Rees when he has come in. This is not your older brother's QB combo (like the 2007 LSU duo of Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux), but it has been effective. 

Speaking of effective, no 2012 Notre Dame discussion would be complete without a mention of their SEC-worthy defense. LB Manti Te'o has been a force and will run away with a lot of postseason hardware. The Irish defensive line has been dominant, with defensive linemen Stephon Tuitt, Kapron Lewis-Moore and Louis Nix occupying blockers and freeing up ND's linebackers to make plays.

Future Prognosis: Not great. Despite the fact that Notre Dame has four winnable games left on its schedule, it must also travel to Oklahoma and USC for games against the only two teams on its schedule that can challenge their secondary, which has been the weakest part of an otherwise stingy defense. Going 1-1 on the road against OU and USC would be hard for Alabama, let alone a team playing QB roulette. Even so, finishing 4-2 will put the Irish in the BCS.

2nd Half X-factor: The secondary - If the Irish are to get by their final two landmines, they will need massive contributions from their secondary to slow down Oklahoma's and USC's bevies of talented wideouts. Both teams run 4-deep at WR, so the Irish will need a comprehensive effort from their defensive backfields to pull off both games.