MLB 2012 Season Predictions

With March Madness done, college football in total hibernation, and the NBA in the dog days stretch of its season, that can only mean one thing- baseball is just around the corner. Here are my complete predictions for the divisions, playoffs, and award winners.

American League 

East Division

1. New York Yankees

It's hard to envision the Yankees not finishing at the top of the AL East this year. They've got the division's best or second-best pitching rotation, the best or second-best lineup, and the best bullpen in the league by far. The trick for Joe Girardi and the Yankees' brass will be trying to decide which three of Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia, Michael Pineda, and Ivan Nova will stick in their rotation after CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda. Don't forget that once May rolls around, one of them probably will be pushed out of the rotation in favor of Andy Pettitte. You know offense won't be the issue. Even if Father Time continues his assault on the production of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, and Mark Teixeira will still be a handful for opposing pitching staffs. 

2. Tampa Bay Rays

The hottest name of Spring Training in the AL this year has to be the Rays' soon-to-be phenom, Matt Moore. Teammates gushed about his stuff. Opposing scouts rave over his poise. Opposing hitters shudder while studying him in the film room. Add him to David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, and Jeff Niemann and you've got a staff that is absolutely loaded. Even their up-and-comers project well as big-leaguers- they're just blocked by the Rays' current top five. The Rays' bullpen, while not as stingy or well-known as that of the Yankees, is deeper. The major differences that set the Yankees apart from the Rays are simple: the Bombers have the better closer (the immortal Mariano Rivera versus Kyle Farnsworth) and a vastly superior offense. Where the Yankees trot out Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, and Nick Swisher, the Rays have Sean Rodriguez (who can't hit righties), Ben Zobrist (who might get moved to the outfield for Jeff Keppinger, hardly an improvement on the offensive end), Carlos Pena (who can't hit lefties or breaking balls), and Matt Joyce (a nice player who's about the same caliber of player as Swisher). Manager Joe Maddon will have to get clever with the lineup to squeeze as much production as he can out of them. I wouldn't be shocked if the Rays dealt James Shields for a bat around July. He's in a contract year and will probably bolt after this season anyway.

3. Boston Red Sox

Lots of people seem to be souring on the Red Sox, overreacting to the ugly end of last season's fried chicken-and-beer-themed suckfest they put on in September. The Sox still boast MLB's best 1-5 hitters in perennial MVP candidates Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and Adrian Gonzalez followed by the aging but still dangerous David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis. They also still have Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz in the rotation. That assortment of players alone will be enough to keep the Red Sox in the hunt in the AL East. Where things get hairy for Bobby Valentine is when he looks at the rest of the lineup card. Carl Crawford and his albatross of a contract are coming off the worst season since his days in Tampa. Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Kelly Shoppach are the catchers for now. While there has been deserved talk of a catching platoon, I bet one of these two will establish a strong rapport with the starting staff and cement his place in the lineup for at least 5-6 days out of a given week. The platoon-to-be in right does not inspire great confidence with Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney there. There's also the little matter of shortstop, where a Green Monster-sized hole remains. Giving away Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie wasn't the most auspicious start to new GM Ben Cherington's career. Even with a couple of holes in the lineup, those aren't even the biggest problems the Red Sox will have to solve. Right now, Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves project to be their #4 and #5 starters. In a division where the Red Sox might square off against 4's and 5's like Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann, Andy Pettitte, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, and Phil Hughes, their performance is going to be crucial to Boston's season success.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

A classic case of a team that would contend in every division except the one they're in. It would take an incredible streak of good fortune (or bad fortune if you're a Yankees, Rays, or Red Sox fan) for the Jays to play serious baseball in October. The Jays have a great offense, led by the exploits of Jose Bautista and a spate of others- Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus, Brett Lawrie, and Edwin Encarnacion bring the lumber for the Mounties. Pitching-wise, they're solid, but not spectacular. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow have days where they're unhittable, then days where they're just plain mediocre. In a division that boasts 4-5 ace-caliber starters, that's not good enough. They badly need one or both to take a major step forward to contend this year.

5. Baltimore Orioles

Despite having a fantastic end to their 2011 campaign, Buck's boys still face an uphill upmountain climb to reach the point they were at nearly 16 years ago. It's hard to believe it was only 16 years ago- feels like they haven't been there during my lifetime, anyway. As for the 2012 Orioles, their pitching woes are well-stated and well-known. That isn't their only issue, as once-promising players like Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis all face serious scrutiny and possibly, make-or-break points in their careers.

Central Division

1. Detroit Tigers

Is there any way the Tigers don't win this division? They have the best pitcher, reliever, two best hitters, and the best manager in the whole division, plus a healthy of amount of pitching with upside in the bullpen and rotation. Justin Verlander won't have a season like the one he just had ever again, but he won't need to in 2012. Even without Victor Martinez (torn ACL), the Tigers' offense will be loaded. Adding Prince was a totally unnecessary luxury move, but I liked it. Anytime you can add a young power bat in their prime and don't have to surrender anything but cash, you do it. And the Tigers did. The only questions I have- how bad will they be defensively? Will they be bad enough to cost Detroit four or more games, or just one or two? And can Doug Fister pick up where his second half left off last year? Frankly, I'm not convinced these questions matter enough to cost Detroit the AL Central.

2. Cleveland Indians

The Indians are an interesting team. To prove this, allow me to pose a hypothetical scenario for the division. Detroit gets a step-back season from Verlander, maybe 16-17 wins instead the 20 or more we have him penciled in for. We'll also guess the Detroit infielders play like they're using frying pans instead of Rawlings and cost the Tigers 6 games. PECOTA projects the Tigers to win 86 games (I'm figuring 90 wins, easy). Under my doomsday scenario, that drops to around 80 actual wins. Well, the Tribe is projected for 81 wins (totally reasonable). Let's also pretend Ubaldo Jimenez pitches like he's going up against Troy Tulowitzki and just has a take-no-prisoners year, and the offense gets a bounceback year from Shin-Soo Choo. Suddenly 81 looks modest, and the Indians walk away with 87 wins, steal the division, and host a playoff series. Doesn't seem that unrealistic, either. They will need a lot more from their youngsters, namely Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis.

3. Chicago White Sox

The White Sox aren't going to be terrible this year- they have enough talent in the field and pitching staff to be competitive. The problem is that they don't have enough of it, and a lot of the talent has peaked. If they plan on doing more than being competitive, they'll need every guy who underachieved for them (Adam Dunn, Alex Rios, Jake Peavy) to step up for them.

4. Kansas City Royals

This team has talent, oh my goodness, yes. The problem for the Royals is that it's all confined to their position players. Their pitching staff is decidedly mediocre. And they won't have Joakim Soria this year, either. Still, a team with Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and Billy Butler has good offensive potential. I just can't see them finishing higher than fourth with that pitching staff. Luke Hochevar? Bruce Chen? Jonathan Sanchez? Aaron Crow? At least Felipe Paulino has some upside to him.

5. Minnesota Twins

Though they were never a true dynasty (like the Yankees of the 90's, for example), the Twins were seemingly on the verge of an Atlanta Bravesesque run of division dominance before the dumpster fire that was 2011 happened. Every part of the Twins that made them a nuisance to their division rivals fell apart- Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, their bullpen, their starters. Tsuyoshi Nishioka was worse than Nick Punto in almost every way. Heading into 2012, these Twins look nothing like the late 2000's teams that routinely made the playoffs. The once-loaded roster now looks more like a rebuilding project than a big league lineup and the pitching staff would probably struggle in the National League. Unless Mauer goes back to his pre-Target Field self and Morneau stops seeing stars long enough to see fastballs, the team's offense will struggle mightily. As long as Francisco Liriano keeps pretending that the Target logo behind homeplate is actually where the catcher wants the ball, the rotation will be well below league average. I have no hope for their bullpen. With their minor-league system seemingly devoid of high-upside players ready to contribute to the MLB club, 2012 will look a lot like 2011 for Minnesota.

West Division

1. Texas Rangers

For years, American League fans were mostly left with one playoff race come August and September. (Hint: it featured two prominent AL East teams.) In 2012, that's all about to change. Out west, the stage is set for a major, season-long tussle between two of major league baseball's five best teams. In what will be the AL's closest, most intense race, I am picking Texas. The Rangers don't have the overwhelming pitching the Angels do, but the Angels are giving at-bats to the likes of Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, and Erick Aybar, the Rangers are giving at-bats to really outstanding veteran hitters. Even though Mike Napoli won't hit like Mike Piazza as he did in last season's second half, the lineup will still mash. The Rangers have no true ace, unless Yu Darvish turns out to be one. Even if he isn't, their rotation will still be very good, comfortably the fourth best in the AL, behind the Angels, Rays, and Yankees. They'll eat innings, pile up wins by protecting the leads their offense gets them and handing the ball off to their solid bullpen. I didn't like the Rangers' decision to move Alexi Ogando from the rotation or signing Joe Nathan, but the rest of the team is good enough to get the Rangers past the 90-win mark once more. 

2. Los Angeles Angels

Anaheim has a huge advantage on their division- a phenomenal and deep starting rotation. Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson, and Ervin Santana form as deep a 1-4 as any in the league. Though he'll likely struggle a little early on as he adjusts to the American League's pitchers, Albert Pujols will help solidify Mike Scioscia's offense. Throw in other solid hitters like Howie Kendrick and Mark Trumbo, plus the possible return to form of Kendrys Morales, and you're looking at a team that is one of the most well-rounded in the entire league. Problems within the roster creep up when you take a look at the Angels' very unangellike bullpen and their lineup after Pujols and Kendrick. Gone are the days of Scot Shields and K-Rod stonewalling opponents in the latter innings. Rookie closer Jordan Walden showed powerhouse stuff and handled the job very well for a rookie, but at times his inconsistency became problematic. The lineup is filled with guys who are either shadows of their former selves (Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells) or guys that just aren't that good (Erick Aybar, Alberto Callaspo, Chris Ianneta). With the tremendous depth among the AL's top five teams, one of them just isn't going to make it. I'll be a little surprised if it's the Angels given how strong their offseason adds were.

3. Oakland A's

The A's won't be a featured topic of conversation on ESPN or MLB Network very often in 2012, but if they are, it will be because of one of the most highly anticipated debuts in recent memory- that of Yoennis Cespedes, the 26-year old Cuban defect. While it is an understatement to call Cespedes raw and his success is not nearly as foregone a conclusion as what is expected of other top prospects or IFA's like Yu Darvish or Bryce Harper, that doesn't mean you shouldn't watch. You should definitely watch Yoennis. You shouldn't watch his teammates though. Or if you do, just don't it with kids or your better half around. The A's will be hard to watch. The lineup is woeful. The pitching staff has some good arms- Brandon McCarthy and top prospect Jarrod Parker, but these aren't your older brother's A's teams of the early 2000's. 

4. Seattle Mariners

If I had ranked the division based solely on talent, the A's would be here. Unfortunately, baseball is less about the most talented team and more about the most complete team, which the Mariners certainly are not. After big names like Felix Hernandez and Ichiro, how many other starting M's can you name off the top of your head? You might remember Chone Figgins (his ghost now plays in Seattle) or former Yankees uber-prospect Jesus Montero, but what do names like Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, Brendan Ryan, and Mike Carp mean to you? To me they look like a 60-win offense, tops. After you look at their rotation (after the King, obviously), it's hard to see this team exceeding even 70 wins. 

National League

East Divsion

1. Philadelphia Phillies

When I first started making my division predictions, I knew the NL East was going to be the hardest to handicap. Well, after the Phillies anyway. Even without Chase Utley or Ryan Howard for a large chunk of time, the Phillies should coast to yet another NL East division title behind the efforts of three players- Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Hunter Pence. Though their offense will be pedestrian without Utley and Howard to power it, a rotation headed by two of the game's three best pitchers, plus Cole Hamels and really-good-out-of-nowhere guy Vance Worley should be more than enough to keep the Phillies at or near their projected 90 wins. PECOTA has them at what seems an absurdly low 88 wins- I'm taking the over, big time. 

2. Atlanta Braves

This is where the NL East becomes brutal to pick. I could see any of the next three teams rearrange their order and find it completely believable. Miami is the sexy pick to finish near the top of the division, and it's easy to see why. However, I like the Braves' roster more. It's not based on any real facts or statistical analysis- it's strictly a gut call. It's Chipper's last year. That'll motivate the whole team to make stupid Chipper-themed cliches like "Win One for the Chipper" or "We've gotta win the 'Ship for Chip" (I could continue, but I won't.) I also expect Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman to be a lot better than they were in 2011. The Braves' real advantage over their divisional opponents (yes, even Philly) is in their Rays-like collection of great young arms. Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor are a quietly excellent top four and an interesting youngster in Randall Delgado rounding it out. Tim Hudson will join the fun, toss in an absolutely stacked bullpen, and the Braves won't be hurting for run-stoppers. They just need their offense to be a lot better than it was in 2011. 

3. Washington Nationals

It's probably crazy to put the Nats this high. They will pitch, I know that. In what has become a running theme for my predictions, I see yet another really solid rotation. This time, it's Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, Jordan Zimmerman, and John Lannan. Even with Strasburg's innings being closely monitored, the Nats will still probably boast a top 10, maybe top 8 rotation. It's hard for me to see their rotation exceeding what the rotations are in the Bronx, Tampa, Texas, Anaheim, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and   Phoenix. Ok, so top 8 is doable. The biggest point of anxiety for me in this pick is what looks like a putrid offense. Even with Jayson Werth added to Ryan Zimmerman, the Nats' offense will still be dreadful. Start the Bryce Harper countdown. 

4. Miami Marlins

On paper, the Marlins have the first or second-best roster in the division. Why am I so low on them? Truthfully, I really don't know. It's kind of the same kind of gut instinct I had about the Braves. Yes, a lineup with Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Logan Morrison at the top should be very good. A rotation with Josh Johnson (if healthy), Mark Buerhle, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, and Carlos Zambrano should be enough for the Marlins to be better than the Nationals or Braves, right? I just have a funny feeling about this team. I don't trust Johnson's shoulder. I like Buerhle, but the other pitchers don't do it for me. The bullpen doesn't either. Easy pick for the biggest disappointment of 2012, preseason edition. I totally expect this pick to blow up in my face.

5. New York Mets

Picking the NL East's second through fourth-place teams was brutal; picking the first and last-place teams was not. The Mets look doomed for another year of getting carved up by the New York papers and playing little brother to the Yankees in the Big Apple. After David Wright, the offense is full of question marks and young players. The pitching is even worse. No one knows what to expect from Johan Santana. Or Ike Davis. Or their bullpen as a whole. 

Central Division

1. St. Louis Cardinals

Fresh off their latest World Series conquest, the National League's gold standard organization is faced with another challenge: how to replace the franchise's greatest hitter since Stan Musial. Strangely, the Cardinals could be as good or better than they were last year. Though he will start the season with an injury issue, Chris Carpenter is back. Adam Wainwright returns from the Cardinals thought was a season-destroying injury. The rest of the rotation isn't sexy or flashy, but Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, and Jake Westbrook will somehow manage to be useful, just like every Cardinals' pitcher over the last 10 years. On the offensive side of things, no one can reasonably expect David Freese to keep up the ungodly playoff run he went on, nor is it safe to expect Lance Berkman to replicate the monster year he had. Facts are facts. Pujols was a once-in-a-generation impact bat whose presence made the whole lineup better. You have to accept there will be some regression. That regression just won't be enough to submarine the Cardinals in 2012.

2. Milwaukee Brewers

By far the most popular story in America's Dairyland this offseason had to be the tale of Ryan Braun and the Case of Mishandled Urine. No player will face more scrutiny this year in opposing ballparks. He will still finish a distant 26th behind the Yankees' regular 25 players in total boos this season, but I digress. Even if Braun wilts under the pressure, there's still plenty of offense to go around. Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, and newly acquired Aramis Ramirez will provide plenty of pop. Nyjer Morgan and Weeks will provide the speed at the top and they'll score plenty of runs. The guy who had the most heat taken off of himself by Braun's legal escapades was new 1B Mat Gamel, who won't be nearly as sought-after by nosy reporters as he would have been, even after replacing one of the league's premier sluggers. The rotation is superb, with Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke armed and ready to annihilate NL offenses and the bullpen is stocked with John Axford and K-Rod to polish off games.

3. Cincinnati Reds

In spite of the horrible contract they just ponied up for Joey Votto, the Reds have a lot going for them in 2012. After the Cardinals, the rest of the division isn't improved- the Brewers lost Prince Fielder, the Cubs blew up their front office, the Astros are too cheaply run to even field a team that barely resembles a AAA team, and the Pirates are the Pirates. The Reds are neither impressive hitters or pitchers. They're merely adequate-to-good at both, plus solid in the field. They upgraded their rotation by somehow stealing Mat Latos from the Padres to go along with Johnny Cueto and will patiently wait out Homer Bailey's and Mike Leake's developments. 

4. Chicago Cubs

After an offseason that saw the Cubs strike out on Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, but still swipe Theo Epstein from the Red Sox, life is pretty much the same as it was in North Chicago last year. They'll be competitive at times and brutal at other times...in other words, a macrocosm of Starlin Castro. Of all the teams in MLB, this is the team that figures to look the least like its Opening Day self on the season's final day. A lot of the team's good veterans are strong bets to get dealt. Players like Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Marlon Byrd, and Alfonso Soriano could all get dumped on someone else. It looks like that kind of year in Wrigley. 

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

It's odd to say, but there is hope on the horizon for the Pirates. There are promising young players on the club sprinkled all over the place- Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Garrett Jones, and former top-five pick Pedro Alvarez. All that hope in the offense is going to be needed, because their pitching rotation is garbage. Sure, A.J. Burnett and Erik Bedard were once somebodies in the AL, but does anyone trust them now? At least they came cheaply. 

6. Houston Astros

The Astros suffer from the same disease the Mariners do- crappy team in a rough division with bad management. Except they don't have an Ichiro or Felix Hernandez on their roster. It's really almost amazing how the Astros only five or six years ago were a major player in the NL every October. Other than the fact that there is absolutely zero chance they are relevant at all this year, I have very little to add on the Astros. 

West Division

1. Colorado Rockies

The NL West seemingly has a new division winner every year, and this year, it's the Rockies' turn. Possessing the division's premier offense, led by Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez plus a spate of other good players and the vets they added (Marco Scutaro and Michael Cuddyer), the Rockies will put up a ton of runs, especially at home. The rotation is a little bit suspect, but there's serious upside here. Jhoulys Chacin has potential to be their next Ubaldo Jimenez, Jeremy Guthrie has been a good-not-great-but-mostly-average starter who chews up innings (in other words, a good get for Colorado), and Juan Nicasio round out their top three starters. The #4 and #5 starters could be really interesting. Drew Pomeranz, one of the bounties collected from their pillaging of the Indians during last season's trade of Jimenez is the projected #4. He was a major part of getting that deal done, so clearly the Rockies love him. Like any rookie pitcher, expectations must be tempered. The last guy could somehow be Jamie Moyer. Wow. 

2. San Francisco Giants

The NL's best pitching rotation will once again have their work cut out for themselves by the bay. Their mission: allow two or fewer runs in every game or risk a loss (worst-case scenario) or a no-decision. 29 other pitching rotations would crumble under such extreme conditions, but the Giants do not have one of the 29 other pitching rotations. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, and the corpse of Barry Zito comprise a rotation so good, Lincecum (the headliner) was actually their third-best starter! Try that line on your friends and see what they say. It's weird, but true. For as good as the Giants are as a pitching staff, they are as bad of hitters. Getting Buster Posey back will be very nice for the Giants, but he'll carry a massive amount of pressure as the Giants' only hitter with upside this year (unless they figure out that Brandon Belt should be in the lineup). After Pablo Sandoval and Freddy Sanchez, the Giants will be left praying the rest of the lineup isn't complete crap. 

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

The surprise team of 2011 after an almost 30-win improvement figures to receive a heavy dose of reality this year. That's not to say the Dbacks will be bad- they'll be competitive. My problem with them is that their improvement was so sudden and massive that I think a return to somewhere in the middle of where they were two years ago and last year has to be in the offing. This is a solid team, I'm just not sure it's good enough to stay on top with the pressure of expectations on them. Their rotation, already very solid, could get a huge boost from two baseball's finest pitching prospects- Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs. 

4. Los Angeles Dodgers

Lost in all of the buzz and excitement surrounding Magic's return to L.A. is the fact that the Dodgers are less than a shell of what they once were. Once you get past Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, and to a lesser extent, Andre Ethier, the Dodgers are a decidedly average team. Chad Billingsley should be and probably will be traded while his value stays high. They'd never do it, but I wonder if the Dodgers shouldn't try to turn Kemp or Kershaw into a boatload of good young prospects and try and rebuild that way. This much is clear- the new owners have their work cut out for them. 

5. San Diego Padres

Much like the Pirates, the Padres have a lot of good, young talent. The problem is that most of it is in the minors or ready to go through some growing pains on-field for the Dads in 2012. Dealing Mat Latos was a blow to a fanbase that has had to see Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez leave in recent years, but the return on investment was great- they plundered the Reds' farm system very nicely. The fans will have to be patient. As for the 2012 Padres, they're looking at another long year.

Award Winners: 

AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver, Angels

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Moore, Rays

NL Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper, Nationals

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Joe Mauer, Twins

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Edinson Volquez, Padres

Playoff Predictions 

American League

Wild Card Showdown 

Rays vs. Angels (Rays win)

ALDS

Yankees versus Rays (Yankees in 6)

Rangers versus Tigers (Rangers in 7)

ALCS 

Yankees vs. Rangers (Yankees in 7)

National League

Wild Card Showdown

Brewers vs. Braves (Braves win)

NLDS

Phillies vs. Braves (Phillies in 7)

Cardinals vs. Rockies (Cardinals in 5)

NLCS

Phillies vs. Cardinals (Cardinals in 6)

World Series

Yankees vs. Phillies (Yankees in 6)

Talkin' Tournament

Seeing as today is one the greatest days in all of sports (the others being Major League Baseball's Opening Day and January 1st), I figured I'd treat you all to my bracket breakdown. We'll go region-by-region, starting in the South Regional.

SOUTH REGION - ATLANTA, GA.
I originally felt that this quarter of the whole bracket was the toughest of the four this year, and my opinion has not changed. Kentucky is obviously the clear-cut team to beat in the field, having steamrolled their way through the SEC to the top overall seed. John Calipari's band of one-and-doners is young (again) and supremely talented (again). But you already knew that. What you may not know is that this team is probably Coach Cal's best defensive team at Kentucky during his tenure. Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marquis Teague, Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Darius Miller are excellent athletes and are more than capable of putting pressure on the opposing team's offense. They play with an almost Orlando Magic-esque style of defense. They can afford to take some risks because Davis will clean up their messes with his record setting shot-blocking ability. To me, this makes Kentucky the easy choice for the National Championship.

The rest of the bracket is stout, but not in Kentucky's class. Some thoughts:
1. Duke, while not up to levels of Mike Krzyzewski's past teams, is still a well-coached team and the top threat to Kentucky in the South Bracket, even though I picked them to lose to Baylor. Duke has three things going for them that should give Kentucky cause for concern. For starters, they have the best coach in the field leading them, a man who will be more than capable of devising a great game plan for the Cats. Secondly, they have the single quickest guard in college basketball, Austin Rivers. Kentucky has not seen a guard with this degree of quickness all season. While I don't think Rivers will turn into Dwyane Wade circa 2003, I won't be totally surprised if he drops 40 on someone. Finally, the Blue Devils are probably the most similar team to Vanderbilt in the whole tourney. For those of you who are just starting to watch college hoops for the first time this season, Vandy is the only team that gave Kentucky major trouble this whole year. Kentucky escaped twice before finally acquiescing to the Commodores in the SEC Tournament Championship game.

2. The 5-12 matchup between Wichita State and VCU is a case of two hugely underseeded teams forced to do battle. Both teams are more than capable of taking out a high major team, but we'll have to settle for one, I picked Wichita based primarily on their experience and roster balance. They have good guards and a solid big man. VCU just strikes me as too trendy this year for me to completely buy the hype this time around.

Hardest Game to Pick: 4 Indiana v. 13. New Mexico State
The Hoosiers, like a lot of young teams, are Jekyll-and-Hyde away from home. Portland is not Bloomington- I'm nervous.

Best Player in the Region: Anthony Davis, C, Kentucky
The likely #1 pick this summer's NBA draft. That's all you need to know. Broke Shaq's SEC record for blocks in a season by a freshman. Compares well to another Calipari big man, Marcus Camby.

Dark Horse: Wichita State
I really wanted to say Duke considering that no one has picked them or discussed them, but I'm more of a believer in the Shockers this year. Call it a hunch.

Most Interesting Matchup: Gotta go with Duke-UK, right? Let's count the ways: 1. They're two of the best programs ever, 2. The game is in Atlanta, which means it will be stuffed to the rafters with Duke and Kentucky fans, 3. It is a rematch of the single greatest college basketball game ever. You might've seen the highlight before.

WEST REGION- PHOENIX, AZ
The selection committee balanced out the bracket nicely by putting its worst bracket right below its strongest. This is not to say that it is entirely devoid of good teams. I love Missouri in this region, and my justification is really simple. It boils down to two highly important factors- offensive efficiency and neutral court records. Mizzou is undefeated on neutral courts this year (7-0). They're also #1 in offensive efficiency, a metric which has predicted the national champ with startling accuracy six out of the last seven years. That's enough evidence for me to pick the Tigers.

1. Long Beach State is my pick for "12 seed of the year." We have one of these teams that comes from nowhere and rolls through the first weekend into the round of 16. The 49ers can rebound, shoot, and play a pesky brand of defense. Other than the eye test, I have no real scientific proof they're actually better than New Mexico or Louisville. But that's what makes brackets fun.

2. Michigan State is overseeded. They have a good resume and a solid team, like you would expect from a team that won the Big 10. Don't expect them to steamroll LIU-Brooklyn though. Long Island hung with North Carolina for a while last year, and like you would expect from Brooklyn, are extremely tough. Sparty has its work cut out for it. They'll win, but it won't be a blow-out.

3. Saint Louis is one of the most annoying teams in the field. They defend hard all game long, and if that isn't enough, they also run offense for about 30 seconds each possession. Rick Majerus's club is not to be underestimated.

Hardest Game to Pick: 8 Memphis v. 9 St. Louis
See above. Memphis has blistered a lot of the competition in C-USA, but the Bilikens are a totally different breed of cat for them.

Best Player: Scott Machado, Iona
The only reason Iona made the field. Machado is probably the best PG in the tourney. A possible NBA sleeper pick.

Dark Horse: Marquette
They'll have to escape Mizzou (more on that later), but they have the talent and coaching to win the region.

Most Interesting Matchup: Missouri v. Marquette
Marquette wants to run. Missouri does it better. This matchup has all the makings of a barnburner. Here's hoping.

EAST REGION- BOSTON, MA
The most balanced and wide-open of the four regions, the East bracket features almost every kind of team- teams in turmoil (Syracuse), with tons of momentum (Florida State), on fire (Vanderbilt), and schizophrenic (Ohio State). With the news that Syracuse's center Fab Melo won't be available and a potential date with Festus Ezeli and Vandy on the docket, the Orange's 2-3 zone is basically a huge pile of gasoline-soaked wood, ready to be exposed to the red-hot torch that is Vandy. I'll take Vandy in the upset. In the lower half, it's Ohio State versus Florida State. Sounds like a great football matchup...except it's not. It's a better basketball matchup now than it would be in football. Which is weird.

1. Gonzaga got screwed by the NCAA again. Perpetually forced to travel light years from Spokane, the Selection Committee did the Zags no favors by setting them up with West Virginia in Pittsburgh.

2. I already sang Vandy's praises, but that alone cannot absolve them of their recent NCAA Tournament failures. How they play versus Harvard could go a long way towards making my bracket look a lot better after the first weekend.

Hardest Game to Pick: 6 Cincinnati v. 11 Texas
A battle between two really-not-that-great teams. This game figures to be a total snoozer. Which is basically why I have almost nothing to say on the subject.

Best Player: Jared Sullinger
Think Paul Millsap, but not as athletic.

Dark Horse: Vanderbilt. Obviously. Wait. Does the fact that it's obvious make them a non-dark horse? Crap. I guess it'll have to be.....ummm...Wisconsin?

Most Interesting Matchup: Vanderbilt v. Syracuse
A deep, talented zone defending team with no player of impact on low block versus a 3-point sniping team with a strong low-post player. Styles make fights, and the yin and yang elements of this game make it one I really want to see.

MIDWEST REGION- ST. LOUIS, MO
North Carolina. Kansas. Georgetown. NC State. Temple. Michigan. This bracket could be renamed the "Historians' Bracket" because it's loaded with teams that have long histories of high-quality hoops. Though the first three teams I mentioned are the top seeds here, it's a two-team race. It's Ol' Roy's boys versus his exes. North Carolina is easily the second-most talented team in the whole tourney, but also the worst defensive team among the top 8 teams (by seed) in the whole tourney. That's worrisome considering they might have to face Doug McDermott, one of the nation's most lethal scorers, and Thomas Robinson, the best non-Anthony Davis big man in the country before they make it to New Orleans. Did I mention that if they do meet Kansas in the Elite 8 that the game is in St. Louis, only hours from Lawrence? That's why I'm taking the Jayhawks. They defend well, have matchups for most of UNC's players, and a better backcourt.

1. Georgetown had better be on upset alert. Belmont is battle-tested, familiar with the tournament, talented, and deep. I think Georgetown's style keeps teams in it and if this holds true, the Hoyas could get bounced early again.

2. The same could be said about the Michigan-Ohio game. Michigan's odd style of offense could play right into Ohio's hands. Remember, Ohio boatraced Georgetown a few years ago in the tourney. Underestimate the MAC champs at your peril.

Hardest Game to Pick: 8 Creighton v. 9 Alabama
A total contrast of styles here. Bama basketball is just like its football team- all defense, competent offense (if that). Creighton's offense is potent and they have the best player on the floor. I'm totally 50-50 on it, but give me the Tide here.

Best Player: Thomas Robinson
What, you expected differently?

Dark Horse: Sounds weird, but it's probably Belmont. Why they got a 14 escapes me. Probably the worst case of underseeding in the field this year.

Most Interesting Matchup: UNC v. Kansas
Who doesn't want to watch Roy Williams squirm against his old team?

That's all I got for you guys. Give me Kentucky v. Mizzou, and Florida State v. Kansas in the Final Four. Kentucky beats Kansas for the title. John Calipari is finally recognized as an elite coach. The whole team goes pro and Calipari is left to recruit the next wave of blue chippers for Big Blue.

Enjoy March Madness!

A Day as NBA Commissioner

That's right, David- I have three splendid ideas to fix your league

Every fan (and person) likes to daydream about what they'd do if they were in charge- if they were the president, the pope, the manager, the head coach, etc. It's part of life and completely within human nature for people to think about. 

The other day, I had just such a daydream. I was David Stern and I had my heart set on correcting some of the NBA's structural flaws, along with a few, uh, cosmetic changes for a few teams. Here's the NBA according Ryan. 

I. Contraction
My first order of business is to axe the Raptors, Hornets, Bobcats, and Nets. My justification for this is quite simple. The league as it sits right now is simply too big for its own good. 

1. The Raptors are Canada-based. I have nothing against Canada. But this is the National Basketball Association. And they are really not all that good. Their team is the perfect example of what an inflated league does to the bottom-tier teams. Every single one of their players should be a bench/role player on a better team. Every single one of them. Who wouldn't like having DeMar Derozan coming off the bench as a scoring 2? Or Andrea Bargnani as your 3rd or 4th big. in a Toni Kukoc (old school) or Ryan Anderson (more recent) type role?

2. The Hornets have no owner. Seemingly no one wants to buy them. New Orleans is a sorry basketball town. They don't care. The future is grim in New Orleans without a superstar. And that's too bad.

3. The Bobcats are the "South Toronto Raptors" if you will. A perfect example of what a diluted (and deluded) league looks like. 

4. The Nets were my final pick because frankly, New York doesn't need 2 teams in every major sport. I am not an East Coast hater, I just think New York should be a Knicks town and cut it right there. I don't think very many people in New York or New Jersey would care.  

MJ does not approve 

I can already imagine my commissioner's email inbox once Michael Jordan and Mikhail Prokhorov find out. Pissing off one rich guy with a huge ego is bad enough (just ask LeBron). Pissing off two, one of whom is the greatest player in the history of the sport and the other of whom might become the political leader of Russia just might get me on somebody's hit list. But that's what leaders do- they make difficult decisions when the time calls for it. That's why we follow them. 

II. Realignment 

Note: Italics indicate teams that switch divisions.
Eastern Conference
Atlantic
Boston Celtics
New York Knicks
Philadelphia 76ers
Washington Wizards

Central
Chicago Bulls
Indiana Pacers
Detroit Pistons
Milwaukee Bucks
Cleveland Cavaliers

Southeast
Miami Heat
Atlanta Hawks
Orlando Magic
Memphis Grizzlies

Western Conference
Southwest
San Antonio Spurs
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets
Denver Nuggets

Northwest
Portland Trail Blazers
Oklahoma City Thunder
Utah Jazz
Minnesota Timberwolves 

Pacific
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Clippers
Phoenix Suns
Sacramento Kings
Golden State Warriors

Since I decided to contract four teams, each league would have to be evenly divided into 13 teams- two divisions with four team and one with five. When it came to ultimately deciding who stays and who goes, proximity to divisional foes was my ultimate deciding factor. I still haven't quite figured out how divisional scheduling would work, but something along the lines of what Major League Baseball did with the National League Central when it had six teams would be a good starting point. 

Since the Southwest division loses both New Orleans and Memphis, I had to pick a team from one of the other west divisions. Phoenix and Denver were the closest to Texas, but I ultimately decided on Denver as I felt they would do better to keep the conference more balanced.

My decision to move Memphis was based basically on the fact that they are the most "eastern" of the western conference's teams. (Maybe Minnesota is more eastern longitudinally speaking, but the Wolves are better suited to playing in the Northwest than the Grizzlies are, unless they were to move back to Vancouver.)

III. Aesthetic Changes

1. Move the Thunder back to Seattle, rename them the SuperSonics, forcibly remove Clay Bennett as owner, build them a new, top-notch arena (paid on Clay Bennett's and the NBA's tab), and make them publicly-funded, just like the Packers in football. They also get back all of their pre-relocation paraphernalia and history. 

Think I'm being too harsh on Oklahoma City? Think that charming, lovable Oklahoma City deserves a team as much as Seattle? Think again. Better yet, just watch this movie and tell me that the Thunder rightfully belong to Oklahoma City. 

This was by far the easiest of all of the decisions I had to make. Given the way the Sonics were STOLEN from Seattle, this would be the best form of poetic justice I can think of for the fans and people of Seattle. Clay Bennett humiliated. David Stern humiliated. The city of Seattle rewarded with a fine, lovable team that they will own and a new spiffy arena to match. That would be a great make-up present for Seattle. In reality, it would never happen, but a guy can dream. 

2. Can we please rename the Wizards the Bullets again! Pretty please? They already redid their uniforms, take it one step further...PLEASE! 

How much cooler is that logo? You know you love it....

There you have it. One day on the job, and the NBA suddenly looks a lot better. What do you think? Think I've been drinking too much? Haven't slept enough? Or am I right on? Let me know in the comments below. 

Recruiting Wars: College Football's Final Frontier

Today's piece is on one of my favorite parts of college football- recruiting! Though the games on the field may have ended in January (or earlier), there's still time to ruin your rival's offseason and help build momentum, hope, and excitement throughout the program if you're a coach. The road to on-field success runs through America's high school and preparatory academies, where the next generation of stars are waiting to be harvested by the leaders of today. These young men represent five of America's best uncommitted high school players.

1. WR Dorial Green-Beckham (Springfield, Missouri- Hillcrest HS)
Scout.com Rank: #1
Rivals.com Rank: #1
ESPN 150 Rank: #3
Who's on his list: Arkansas v. Mizzou v. Texas v. Oklahoma v. Alabama

Beckham has played his recruitment as close to the vest as any top recruit has in recent memory, offering very little beyond short quotes and comments on his two official visits (to Texas and Arkansas). This 6-6, 225 Calvin Johnsonesque monster of a wide receiver has nearly unlimited potential and the silence of his recruitment has only heightened the already huge interest surrounding him. Staying home for Missouri would be a big coup for Gary Pinkel and the Tigers as they move into SEC play. Going to any of the other schools would put him in situations with elite head coaches and give him the exposure only those schools can offer. Arkansas is the best fit, as the Hogs lost their top 3 wide receivers, return Knile Davis at RB and Tyler Wilson at QB to go along with Bobby Petrino calling the plays.

Prediction: Arkansas
Dark Horse: Texas

2. ATH Davonte' Neal (Scottsdale, Arizona- Chapparal HS)

Scout.com Rank: #74
Rivals.com Rank: #107
ESPN 150 Rank: #8
Who's on his list: Ohio State v. Notre Dame v. Arizona

Neal's recruitment has picked up quite a bit recently as both Brian Kelly of Notre Dame and Urban Meyer have come calling to make in-home visits on this speed demon. Neal has two-way ability as both a CB and WR and Meyer reportedly offered him a Percy Harvin role in his spread attack at Ohio State. (He's probably best suited for defensive back.) Kelly and Arizona's Rich Rodriguez have both been seeking Neal's commitment in recent days and weeks. The intrigue of this recruitment is due to Neal's reported interest in staying close to home but while reports state that the only out-of-state program he'd leave home for is Ohio State. Considering the momentum surrounding Ohio State and Urban Meyer, it's hard not to pick the Buckeyes. The hiring of Neal's high school coach by RichRod could tip the balance though.


Prediction: Ohio State
Dark Horse: Arizona

3. DT Eddie Goldman (Washington, D.C.- Collegiate Academy)

Scout.com Rank: #31
Rivals.com Rank: #7
ESPN 150 Rank: #10
Who's on his list: Alabama v. Auburn v. Florida State

The pursuit of Goldman hasn't been quite as crazy or hectic as that of other recruits', but that doesn't mean it's not interesting. The 315 pound monster wants to play in the south and his school choices reflect that. Both Alabama's Nick Saban and Auburn's Gene Chizik have made in-home visits, with Florida State's Jimbo Fisher ready to round off Goldman's in-home visitors. The 'Noles are believed to be the front-runner and have been there from the start.

Prediction: Florida State
Dark Horse: Alabama

4. OT Arik Armstead (Elk Grove, California- Pleasant Grove HS)

Scout.com Rank: #2
Rivals.com Rank: #61
ESPN 150 Rank: #24
Who's on his list: Cal v. Notre Dame v. USC v. Auburn v. Washington v. Oregon

The stories and speculation surrounding Armstead are saturated with the kind of mystery even the best Agatha Christie novels contain. No one really has a definitive clue where he'll go, as seemingly every school on his list has a legit shot. Once considered a lock to attend Cal, Armstead decided to keep his options open once Cal's ace recruiter, Tosh Lupoi, bolted for Washington. There are a trio of other compelling tidbits surrounding Armstead:
1. He is a legitimate DI basketball prospect. Several schools, including Washington and Oregon, are recruiting him as such. I doubt this has as much bearing on his decision as the next two points will.
2. Whatever school grabs him potentially gets the #2 safety prospect in the country, Shaq Thompson, as a package deal. The two are both very close to Lupoi. Thompson, who was originally committed to Cal, was very interested in Washington from the start.
3. His brother Armond, a former defensive lineman at USC, has been released from the school and (allegedly) wants to play with him. Only Auburn and Notre Dame are on his list of preferred destinations.

Prediction: Washington
Dark Horse: Oregon


Reality: Armstead chose to attend the University of Oregon on January 29. 

5. ATH Stefon Diggs (Olney, Maryland- Our Lady of Good Counsel HS)

Scout.com Rank: #6
Rivals.com Rank: #8
ESPN 150 Rank: #13
Who's on his list: Florida v. Auburn v. Ohio State

The nation's best high school WR with two names, Diggs had been narrowed down to SEC rivals Florida and Auburn until Ohio State and Urban Meyer entered the picture, securing a late visit from Diggs. He had a great time visiting Gainesville and talking with the coaching staff there, leaving me with a general sense that the Gators are in the lead. Auburn has a chance, too. Don't underestimate the Urban effect, either.

Prediction: Florida
Dark Horse: Ohio State


You already know this, but recruiting is a terribly inexact science. A multitude of factors go into how players develop- everything from how they're coached, how comfortable they are on campus, team fit, chemistry, the player's work ethic and coachability, etc.
It also bears noting that online recruiting services can be spotty and tend to overrate recruits who sign onto elite programs. Consider the following scouting report (from ESPN's Recruiting Nation Football) on this wide receiver, who recently won the Fred Biletnikoff Award (I redacted the player's name).

"[Name redacted] is a smooth-looking, natural receiver prospect with well-rounded tools at the position. A potential sleeper at this time. He is tall, rangy and layered with good muscle tone. Shows great downfield, big-catch ability with his good size, hands and large catch radius. Displays very good concentration tracking the ball in tight coverage and plucks the ball smoothly in stride. Adequate route running skills: looks smooth snagging short hitches and screens and transitions quickly upfield. Creates adequate separation on intermediate-to-deep routes as well; at times he looks like he is just cruising but can reach top-speed quickly and deceptively accelerate past corners on vertical routes. Tough to press and mirror in off-man with his foot-quickness and fakes. Good vision with loose hips and wiggle after the catch to make the first defender miss and flashes adequate-to-good burst when he finds a seam. However, he is not a burner and lack of top-end speed needed to move the chains at the next level is a concern. Fluid route runner but lacks sharpness and good burst out of his breaks to create consistent separation. Needs to refine that area. Overall, [name redacted] is a well-rounded receiver with the skills to play both slot and wide out at the next level; very solid prospect with big catch ability."

Sounds like a top prospect, doesn't he? Add in the fact that he had offers from four quality Big 12 (but not Texas or Oklahoma) teams, was 6-2 and 190 pounds as a high school senior, and played in a good football state, you'd think he would have garnered a pretty solid rating from the good folks at ESPN (He got a 74 out of 100 and was considered the 139th-best prospect at wide receiver). About 40 of the top 50 guys at his position are players who did absolutely nothing of note in college.
But when you commit to schools considered "good, not great" like Oklahoma State, your recruit ranking will suffer. And he's not the only one. I could run through a list of player after player of top recruits who got chased by all the big-name schools and weren't drafted by the NFL four years later for months. Similarly, I could do the same but vice versa, where I name off tons of guys who got drafted but weren't highly recruited out of high school.

Still wondering about who that wide receiver was? Follow the links.
ESPN Recruiting Nation Profile
Wide Receiver Rankings for that Year
Highlight

I'm not saying this to rain on your parade or be a debbie-downer, I'm just trying to remind you that a bunch of these guys simply won't pan out under the pressure of major college football. Enjoy signing day (February 1) and have a great week. More articles are on their way, I promise!

Breaking Down the FCS Championship Game: Part 2: The Defenses

Three weeks ago, I began my analysis of the FCS Championship game between North Dakota State and Sam Houston State. Today, I talk defense and give you my pick plus game analysis.

TEAM SCHEME- SAM HOUSTON STATE 
Sam Houston State primarily lines up in an exotic 4-2-5 alignment with the 5th defensive back typically being a safety instead of a corner. It is not a true nickel alignment for the very fact that if it were, and they played a 5th corner instead of safety, they would be susceptible to run attacks. This same style is what Texas Christian runs under Gary Patterson and is noted for its heavy emphasis on speed. This mirrors SHSU's emphasis on speed they share on offense as well.
The Bearkats' defense had an excellent season, giving up the fewest rushing yards per game nationally at 69.9 yards per game (2.6 yards per carry). Like most elite defenses in college football, they heavily rotate players and will do across the front 7 with regularity.
Among these front 7 players are two FBS transfers- Andrew Weaver, a junior defensive end from Waco, Texas, and Oklahoma transfer Jarrett Brown, a sophomore defensive linemen. Both players shared SHSU's team lead in sacks this year. The Bearkats' linebackers rotate between four to five players at the positions. With such balanced minutes between the linebacker corps, players who don't start have more tackles than listed starters. The real strength of Sam Houston State's defense is their defensive backfield, the best in the Southland Conference and one of the best nationally. Starting cornerbacks Daxton Swanson and Bookie Snead are excellent man-to-man defenders. Swanson had eight interceptions and eight pass breakups, while Sneed has added three more interceptions and broke up another 12. The real headliner for SHSU is safety Darnell Taylor, the SLC defensive player of the year who led the team in tackles with 118 (81 solo). SHSU rotates three other players at safety. 


TEAM SCHEME- NORTH DAKOTA STATE

The Bison are a true defensive juggernaut and are so because of the huge emphasis the coaching staff has placed on that side of the ball. While NDSU does not have an impressive offense in terms of conference or national rank, they make up for it defensively. They rank first nationally in scoring defense and have stifled nearly every single offense they have faced this year. NDSU's 4-3 alignment is very balanced and no one group is emphasized, though most would agree that the strength of the Bison defense is their defensive line, which runs an LSU-worthy eight deep. 

Coulter Boyer is the leader with nine sacks and his presence frees up NDSU's interior linemen, who clog rushing lanes and provide push up the middle. The linebackers, led by Chad Willson, Preston Evans, and Travis Beck are all fast, interchangeable, and sure-handed. They give NDSU's defensive coaches flexibility to call any number of exotic blitzes or coverages. Adding to the strength of the linebacking corps is safety Colten Heagle, who returned from injury in NDSU's previous game against Georgia Southern and whose strong tackling and aggression make him a fourth linebacker at times. Of course, he wouldn't be allowed to play that way unless the Bison had elite corners. Sophomore Marcus Williams was the headliner, winning All-American consideration and Christian Dudzik and John Pike both add their own skills to the defensive backfield. FS Daniel Eaves won't play versus Sam Houston due to a torn meniscus, but NDSU had to adjust to life without Heagle for most of the year, so the injury is not expected to be catastrophic. 

THE PICK

The biggest x-factor for me going into this game is the long layoff both teams are facing. Given the complexity and unusual nature of the Bearkat offense, giving NDSU almost a whole month to prepare does them no favors. Additionally, since their offense is timing-based, it's fair to question just how sharp it will be early on. All offenses rely on timing to be sure, but looking at the way option teams have fared at the FBS level in games where their opponents have been given time to prepare, it begs the question. To illustrate where I'm going with this line of thinking, consider how Oregon has fared in recent high-profile FBS games. 

Other than a Rose Bowl win this year for Oregon, they had struggled in games where they played against similarly talented teams who had time to prepare- Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, their National Championship Game appearance versus Auburn, and their season opening game against LSU. Each and every one of these games put the Ducks' spread option up against well-prepared defenses. 

Like I said before, all offenses rely on timing to some extent. North Dakota State's power offense is less timing-focused and makes no attempt to conceal what their primary objective is- they want to wear you down with power running. This leads to my next x-factor. NDSU's offensive line outweighs their SHSU counterparts on the defensive line by nearly 40 pounds a man (37). Will the Bearkats' depth and conditioning be enough to keep them afloat in the second half of what could be a close game? Or will they yield to NDSU? I saw only one team this year (Northern Iowa) who was not completely worn down by NDSU's offensive style this year. Because of that ratio of success for NDSU, I'm led to believe that NDSU will succeed in this venture- it's up to the SHSU offense to dictate tempo.

NDSU 34, SHSU 17. 

Breaking Down the FCS Championship Game: Part 1: The Offenses

It's the holiday season and with that comes a plethora of shopping, weather changes (knock on wood), and our final dose of high-major college football as the NCAA dumps its annual buffet of 30-plus bowl games on us. Lost in the shuffle of this bevy of entertainment is the FCS Championship game. This year's tilt features two teams marching into the uncharted territory that is Frisco, Texas for the first time. In part one of my two-part series on this biggest of FCS games, I'll attempt to break down and analyze these team's two offenses.

(In my best Michael Buffer voice)
In the orange corner, from Huntsville, Texas, the champions of the Southland Conference at 14-0...the Sam Houston State Bearkats!!!

TEAM SCHEME- SAM HOUSTON STATE BEARKATS
Sam Houston State's (SHSU from now on) bread-and-butter, like so much of the FCS, is their rushing game, ranked fourth nationally. One look at the team's stats and depth chart tells you all you need to know- four Bearkats have over 300 yards rushing on the season, two are at or over 1,000 yards and their passing attack is 103rd overall. It wouldn't be unfair to call Sam Houston State one-dimensional. When your one dimension is running the ball and it's as good as SHSU's, it could be worse. There's a reason running the ball is prevalent in FCS- it wins. Consider this- only 1 of the top 10 passing offenses in FCS (Lehigh) made the playoffs, whereas four of the top 10 rushing offenses made the playoffs (and the 11th- and 12th-best rushing offenses made the playoffs too.)

Sam Houston runs the ball out of a lot of formations and I think it would be fair to categorize them as a spread, read option-based scheme. Keep in mind that "spread" does not mean they throw the ball 40 times a game- it simply means an offense run primarily out of the backfield from shotgun or pistol sets. Based on their personnel, it's a wise decision as running back Tim Flanders and  WR/RB Richard Sincere are best suited to use their speed in space. Philosophically they're quite similar to Oregon, though don't rely on the hectic pace the Ducks do.

PERSONNEL
Quarterbacks: QB Brian Bell won't wow you or evoke memories of former Bearkat great Rhett Bomar, but he'll manage the game (62% completion percentage), protect the ball (5 interceptions), and run the option with aplomb. Bell was #2 in FCS football in passing efficiency, but the Bearkats only threw the ball for more than 200 yards in a game once all year. Bell added 400 yards and 6 TDs on the ground. To use a basketball comparison, Bell is a classic pass-first point guard. He's not there to score, he's there to get the ball to his teammates in places so that they can score. He'll get his TD's when you don't respect him or cheat on their running game, but his strongest asset is the distributing ability he has mastered this year.

Running Backs: The first guy most FCS fans think of when you bring up SHSU is easily sophomore All-American RB Tim Flanders. The Midwest City, Oklahoma native and Kansas State transfer is the bell cow for coach Willie Fritz's scheme as evidenced by his 1,560 rushing yards and 22 rushing TD's. Toss in another 404 yards and 2 TD's in the receiving game and it's pretty easy to see why Bill Snyder wanted Flanders at K-State- Flanders reminds me of former KSU stud Darren Sproles.

Flanders

 The other weapon the 'Kats throw at their opponents is athlete Richard Sincere. It's hard for me to call Sincere a RB because he is used all over the field in much the same way Florida utilized Percy Harvin and Kentucky used Randall Cobb. One of Sam Houston's favorite formations is in fact a "WildKat" package featuring Sincere at QB that is very similar to how Kentucky used Cobb last year. Any time you see Sincere in the backfield, odds are good you're going to see a speed option run of some kind.
Rounding out SHSU's depth chart are running backs Ryan Wilson and Keyshawn Hill, who combined to offer  an additional 732 yards and 6 TD's off the bench.
None of SHSU's running backs are particularly big (Flanders is the biggest at 5-9, 210) but what they lack in size, they make up for in brute speed.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: SHSU has no true go-to wideout, but they've got plenty of speed and and balance there. Five different 'Kats have more than 240 yards receiving, but the team's top 2 wide receivers are the aforementioned Flanders and Sincere. The only true starter SHSU features at WR (they consider Sincere a WR on their official roster) exclusively is Torrance Williams, who had 3 TD's and 397 yards (28 yards per game). The rest of the depth chart is a mishmash of guys averaging around 25 yards a game who each have anywhere from one to three TD catches all year.
The team's tight ends combined for 3 catches and 30 yards over the whole season. That's not a misprint, folks. You can forget about their tight ends.

Sincere

Offensive Line: To have such a phenomenal rushing offense like SHSU's, it goes without saying that the big uglies were a big part of it. LT Chris Crockett and C Travis Watson were both First-Team All-Americans. Rounding out the offensive line starters for Sam Houston are RT Kaleb Hopson, OG Matt Boyles, and OG Dan Jenkins. Across the board, their offensive line averages 288 pounds. They've only allowed 9 sacks all year to boot.

(In my Michael Buffer voice)
In the green corner, from Fargo, North Dakota, the champions of the Missouri Valley Conference at 13-1...the North Dakota State University Bison!!!

TEAM SCHEME- NORTH DAKOTA STATE BISON
When NDSU hired former Nebraska assistant Craig Bohl almost a decade ago, some wondered if the Bison were going to go back their option roots. Instead, Bohl brought with him a power running version of the West Coast offense that permeates the majority of NFL and has applications in nearly every college playbook today. Bohl's version of the West Coast is akin to Wisconsin's under Barry Alvarez or Bret Bielema or Jim Harbaugh's Stanford teams, featuring multiple runners running behind fullbacks and tight ends. As far as NDSU's passing game is concerned, how often and well it has been utilized has varied depending on Bohl's level of trust in the starting QB he's using at that moment.
NDSU is certainly more balanced than their Texan counterparts and will run a lot of their plays out of i-formation looks to go along with other pro-style formations featuring 2 TE's. Less common are shotgun plays, but NDSU has opened up their playbook more as the season has worn on, a sign of the development sophomore QB Brock Jensen has made.

PERSONNEL

Jensen

Quarterbacks: Sophomore QB Brock Jensen matured from the raw, immature freshman he was in his freshman season into a steady, reliable game manager with improved accuracy in 2011. Although he threw the ball almost 100 times more than Bell, he only managed 13 TD's to Bell's 20. However, his 3 INTs were the 2nd-fewest in the country (among eligible passers). Jensen, like Bell, knows his role. He's there to distribute the ball, protect it, and keep his team in the game.

McNorton

Running backs: Just like SHSU, this is where NDSU's offense comes from. NDSU doesn't have the depth or gamebreaking ability out of the backfield that SHSU does, but they certainly have the balance. Both of NDSU's top rushers, D.J. McNorton and Sam Ojuri topped the 1,000 yard mark this year and each had 11 or more TD's to go with it. Although their stats are similar, their skill sets are somewhat varied, allowing NDSU to broaden their offensive playcalling depending on which particular back they have in the game. McNorton is the more well-rounded of the bunch, catching 22 passes to Ojuri's 4 this year. He'll be used both in the screen game and as a check-down for Jensen. Ojuri is more of a slashing running back and the Bison like to use him as their closer as his juking, hard-cutting style are the perfect style to wipe the floor with defenders tired of being run on.

Receivers/Tight Ends: Unlike Sam Houston, NDSU utilizes their receivers much more conventionally. Warren Holloway is the big name here, and he led the Bison in receptions, yards, and receiving TD's this year. Jensen looks his way early and often (Holloway had more than 30 more catches than the next closest Bison WR) and his size and leaping ability make him absolutely deadly in the red zone. Complement Holloway is North Dakota kid Ryan Smith, a Wes Welker clone who lives out of the slot and whose short-area quickness and speed make him lethal in space. He has had to deal with a nagging hamstring injury and missed most of NDSU's first 2 playoff games against James Madison, Lehigh and Georgia Southern. No other NDSU WR's have emerged of note as this unit was decimated by injuries this year.
Unlike Sam Houston, NDSU heavily utilizes their tight ends in both of their roles. Matt Veldman, the 6-7 Becker, Minnesota native, was NDSU's 3rd leading pass-catcher this year and his ability as both blocker and receiver doesn't allow defenses to key on whether NDSU is running or passing based on his being in the game or not. Backup TE Garrett Bruhn added 10 catches as another safety valve for the Bison.

Offensive Line: Just like SHSU, the Bison feature a monstrous (in size and talent) offensive line. OT Paul Cornick was an All-American. Accompanying him on the line for NDSU is Austin Richard, Joe Lund, Tyler Gimmestad, and Billy Turner. One of the MVFC's best offensive lines, the Bison allowed only 21 sacks in 14 games this year. They average 303 pounds.


Who will these offenses be going up against? That's still to come in Part Two of FCS Championship preview. (I promise no more Michael Buffer references.)

Breaking Down the College Football Coaching Carousel

We've had a slew of hiring/firings in college football, involving at least 10 (ten!) openings that I can think of. Ohio State, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Arizona, Washington State, Memphis, UCLA, Ole Miss, Kansas, Illinois, Arizona State, and UAB have all removed their head coaches and were or are looking for new guys to run their programs. I think Penn State is looking for a new guy too, but I haven't heard too much about that. I also heard Ohio State filled their position too. 


For the first part, I'll break down the new hires we know about- Rich Rodriguez at Arizona, Mike Leach at Washington State, and the blockbuster of them all, Urban Meyer at Ohio State. 

Rich Rodriguez, Arizona

Age: 48

Coaching Résumé

Salem (WV) College (now Salem International University- competed at DII level) 

Record: (1988 season) 2-8 (dropped football program after one year with Rodriguez) 

Glenville State (1990-1996)- Won 3 conference titles and was national runner-up in 1993 NAIA Championship...Was WVIAC Coach of the Year twice and NAIA COY in 1993. 

• Record: 43-28-2 

Served as Assistant Coach, Offensive Coordinator, and Quarterback Coach for Tulane from 1997 to 1998 and Offensive Coordinator/Associate Head Coach at Clemson in 1999

West Virginia (2001-2007)- Won 4 Big East Conference championships...2-3 in bowl games he coached (West Virginia won the 2007 Fiesta Bowl but he had already left for Michigan by this time.)...Big East Coach of the Year in 2002, 2003, and 2005.

• Record: 60-26

Michigan (2007-2009)- 0-1 in bowl games

• Record: 15-22 

Career Record: 120-84 (2-4 in postseason bowls)

Outlook at Arizona:

In terms of overall fit and realistic athletic department expectations for football, this is a good landing spot for RichRod. It will be new for him conference-wise and regionally since he doesn't have many connections in the area. He'll also need to work hard recruiting so he can get the players he wants for his scheme and deal with the inevitable transfers that will occur. 

Implementing his run-heavy spread option attack into the finesse Pac-12 could provide some culture shock. The transition will take a few years but if the AD is patient with Rodriguez (and most AD's haven't shown a lot of patience recently), he'll get the necessary athletes to put together a rushing offense to rival Oregon's out west. On paper, it's not a perfect fit, but it could work with time. 

Rating this hire on the ever-so-popular scale of 1-10, 10 being "Nick Saban-esque," I'd give this hire a solid 8. 

Mike Leach, Washington State

Age: 50 

Coaching Résumé

Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo (1987)- Assistant/Offensive Line Coach

College of the Desert (1988)- Assistant/Linebackers Coach

Iowa Wesleyan (1989-91)- Offensive Coordinator

Valdosta State (1992-96)- Offensive Coordinator at Valdosta State....1996 DII Offensive Coordinator of the Year 

Kentucky (1997-98)- Offensive Coordinator at Kentucky...mentored Tim Couch 

Oklahoma (1999)- Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks Coach

Texas Tech (2000-2009)- 2008 Big XII Coach of the Year, 5-4 in bowl games

• Record: 84-43

Career Record: 84-43 (5-4 postseason)

Outlook at Washington State:

Of the big three hires we've seen so far, this fit is absolutely the most spectacular and best. When it comes to winning in backwater college towns, pirate connoisseur Mike Leach is right up there with the legendary Bill Snyder in terms of guys who win big despite coaching in the sticks. Considering athletic director Bill Moos wanted a flashy offense that would "light up the scoreboard," getting Leach's Air Raid offensive attack was a humongous coup for the Cougars. Moos doesn't (or shouldn't) expect conference championships every single year, but Wazzu can be competitive and has been in the past, including going to its fair share of Rose Bowls. It also has churned out QB's you've heard of like Drew Bledsoe, Mark Rypien, and Ryan Leaf (see video). That's not to say everything is rosy in Pullman, though. There are a few sticking points for me. 

WSU is paying Leach a hefty sum of money, almost $2M per year out of an estimated athletic department budget of $38M. Then there is the little matter of two pending lawsuits related to and stemming from alleged mistreatment of Adam James by Leach while at Texas Tech. Leach is eccentric and does come with some baggage and will say awfully weird and rude things from time to time, but Wazzu will put up with that as long as Leach's teams put up the points and wins...and I expect him to do well. 

On a scale of 1-10, 10 being "Nick Saban-esque", I'd say about a 7.5...which is about a 10 for Washington State. 

Urban Meyer, Ohio State

Age: 47

Coaching Résumé

Ohio State (1986-87)- Tight Ends and Wide Receivers Coach

Illinois State (1988-89)- Outside Linebackers/Quarterbacks/Wide Receivers Coach

Colorado State (1990-95)- Wide Receivers Coach

Notre Dame (1996-2000)- Wide Receivers Coach

Bowling Green (2001-02)- Head Coach...2001 MAC Coach of the Year

• Record: 17-6

Utah (2003-04)- Head Coach....2004 Coach of the Year...2003 and 2004 MWC Coach of the Year...2-0 in bowl games

• Record: 22-2

Florida (2005-10) Head Coach...5-1 in bowl games (4-0 BCS games)...2-time National Champion

• Record: 65-15 

Career Record: 104-23 (7-1 in bowl games)

Outlook at Ohio State:

In the biggest shock since Europeans discovered there was land between Europe and Asia (that's sarcasm, folks), the Ohio native Urban Meyer stepped out of his one-year retirement to take the position he once professed to be his "dream job." 

Dream job indeed

To that end, it's a perfect marriage as both Ohio State and Meyer really love each other. Philosophically, it'll be an adjustment for the Buckeyes, long-used to seeing bulldozing rushing attacks led by power backs like Archie Griffin, Eddie George, Robert Smith, and Maurice Clarett. I expect Ohio State to be fairly patient with Meyer, as they know that with looming NCAA penalties on the horizon it might be a couple of years before the Buckeyes can officially win any Big Ten and National Championships. With that in mind, Ohio State can afford to wait for Meyer to assemble the athletes he wants to fit his spread option scheme. Once he gets those, Ohio State will win big in the Big Ten. In the meantime, they'll have to manage his stress and fatigue levels. The best way to do that? Pay his staff a really nice salary so they stick around and keep him sane. That's the big risk with Meyer. 

Scale of 1-10....I'd give it a solid 9.5, even with Ohio State's insanely high expectations and Meyer's durability concern. 

For your bonus, I'll rank the remaining other positions available from best job to worst job.

1. Texas A&M- SEC newbie + easy access to Texas's rich high school talent pipeline = good chance at success, IMO. Sure you got to deal with that conference, but if Arkansas can win, why not A&M?

2. North Carolina- Winnable conference to say the least. Nice facilities, too. 

3. Penn State- This would typically be #1 for almost anyone else, but you might've heard that place is a mess right now...off the field and at QB. 

4. Arizona State- Arizona is rebuilding, UCLA has no coach, USC is entering its reduced scholarships phase of NCAA purgatory, and the rest of the Pac 12 South isn't that impressive. It should have been easier to win there for Dennis Erickson. 

5. Illinois- Kind of on the fence with this program. Some weeks you're like, "Hey, they've got some talent..." Then the next week you're saying "ew!" like an adolescent girl dissecting a frog. You can win here, just don't expect to playing on January 1st that often. 

6. UCLA- I'm not convinced they're fully committed to winning in football. Not my cup o' tea if I'm the new guy. It beats the other alternatives, though. 

7. Ole Miss- Let's see....division games against Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, and Mississippi State every year. Oh and then you play some combination of South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee and Vandy for your 8 conference games. No wonder they can't win consistently. That schedule is brutal!

8. Kansas- They only gave Turner Gill two years to win with what was left of the human mound's players? Really? 

9. UAB- Well, I guess you could do worse than taking over a team in a winnable conference with access to Alabama and Auburn's table scraps. 

10. Memphis- Ummmm.....it's Memphis. I think I personally would take this job if they just offered it to me on the street, but only, only, only, only as my first gig and as a stepping stone to bigger and better things...I'm looking at you Derek Dooley.... That bright orange "T" out in Knoxville could use my help....