Talkin' Tournament

Seeing as today is one the greatest days in all of sports (the others being Major League Baseball's Opening Day and January 1st), I figured I'd treat you all to my bracket breakdown. We'll go region-by-region, starting in the South Regional.

SOUTH REGION - ATLANTA, GA.
I originally felt that this quarter of the whole bracket was the toughest of the four this year, and my opinion has not changed. Kentucky is obviously the clear-cut team to beat in the field, having steamrolled their way through the SEC to the top overall seed. John Calipari's band of one-and-doners is young (again) and supremely talented (again). But you already knew that. What you may not know is that this team is probably Coach Cal's best defensive team at Kentucky during his tenure. Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marquis Teague, Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Darius Miller are excellent athletes and are more than capable of putting pressure on the opposing team's offense. They play with an almost Orlando Magic-esque style of defense. They can afford to take some risks because Davis will clean up their messes with his record setting shot-blocking ability. To me, this makes Kentucky the easy choice for the National Championship.

The rest of the bracket is stout, but not in Kentucky's class. Some thoughts:
1. Duke, while not up to levels of Mike Krzyzewski's past teams, is still a well-coached team and the top threat to Kentucky in the South Bracket, even though I picked them to lose to Baylor. Duke has three things going for them that should give Kentucky cause for concern. For starters, they have the best coach in the field leading them, a man who will be more than capable of devising a great game plan for the Cats. Secondly, they have the single quickest guard in college basketball, Austin Rivers. Kentucky has not seen a guard with this degree of quickness all season. While I don't think Rivers will turn into Dwyane Wade circa 2003, I won't be totally surprised if he drops 40 on someone. Finally, the Blue Devils are probably the most similar team to Vanderbilt in the whole tourney. For those of you who are just starting to watch college hoops for the first time this season, Vandy is the only team that gave Kentucky major trouble this whole year. Kentucky escaped twice before finally acquiescing to the Commodores in the SEC Tournament Championship game.

2. The 5-12 matchup between Wichita State and VCU is a case of two hugely underseeded teams forced to do battle. Both teams are more than capable of taking out a high major team, but we'll have to settle for one, I picked Wichita based primarily on their experience and roster balance. They have good guards and a solid big man. VCU just strikes me as too trendy this year for me to completely buy the hype this time around.

Hardest Game to Pick: 4 Indiana v. 13. New Mexico State
The Hoosiers, like a lot of young teams, are Jekyll-and-Hyde away from home. Portland is not Bloomington- I'm nervous.

Best Player in the Region: Anthony Davis, C, Kentucky
The likely #1 pick this summer's NBA draft. That's all you need to know. Broke Shaq's SEC record for blocks in a season by a freshman. Compares well to another Calipari big man, Marcus Camby.

Dark Horse: Wichita State
I really wanted to say Duke considering that no one has picked them or discussed them, but I'm more of a believer in the Shockers this year. Call it a hunch.

Most Interesting Matchup: Gotta go with Duke-UK, right? Let's count the ways: 1. They're two of the best programs ever, 2. The game is in Atlanta, which means it will be stuffed to the rafters with Duke and Kentucky fans, 3. It is a rematch of the single greatest college basketball game ever. You might've seen the highlight before.

WEST REGION- PHOENIX, AZ
The selection committee balanced out the bracket nicely by putting its worst bracket right below its strongest. This is not to say that it is entirely devoid of good teams. I love Missouri in this region, and my justification is really simple. It boils down to two highly important factors- offensive efficiency and neutral court records. Mizzou is undefeated on neutral courts this year (7-0). They're also #1 in offensive efficiency, a metric which has predicted the national champ with startling accuracy six out of the last seven years. That's enough evidence for me to pick the Tigers.

1. Long Beach State is my pick for "12 seed of the year." We have one of these teams that comes from nowhere and rolls through the first weekend into the round of 16. The 49ers can rebound, shoot, and play a pesky brand of defense. Other than the eye test, I have no real scientific proof they're actually better than New Mexico or Louisville. But that's what makes brackets fun.

2. Michigan State is overseeded. They have a good resume and a solid team, like you would expect from a team that won the Big 10. Don't expect them to steamroll LIU-Brooklyn though. Long Island hung with North Carolina for a while last year, and like you would expect from Brooklyn, are extremely tough. Sparty has its work cut out for it. They'll win, but it won't be a blow-out.

3. Saint Louis is one of the most annoying teams in the field. They defend hard all game long, and if that isn't enough, they also run offense for about 30 seconds each possession. Rick Majerus's club is not to be underestimated.

Hardest Game to Pick: 8 Memphis v. 9 St. Louis
See above. Memphis has blistered a lot of the competition in C-USA, but the Bilikens are a totally different breed of cat for them.

Best Player: Scott Machado, Iona
The only reason Iona made the field. Machado is probably the best PG in the tourney. A possible NBA sleeper pick.

Dark Horse: Marquette
They'll have to escape Mizzou (more on that later), but they have the talent and coaching to win the region.

Most Interesting Matchup: Missouri v. Marquette
Marquette wants to run. Missouri does it better. This matchup has all the makings of a barnburner. Here's hoping.

EAST REGION- BOSTON, MA
The most balanced and wide-open of the four regions, the East bracket features almost every kind of team- teams in turmoil (Syracuse), with tons of momentum (Florida State), on fire (Vanderbilt), and schizophrenic (Ohio State). With the news that Syracuse's center Fab Melo won't be available and a potential date with Festus Ezeli and Vandy on the docket, the Orange's 2-3 zone is basically a huge pile of gasoline-soaked wood, ready to be exposed to the red-hot torch that is Vandy. I'll take Vandy in the upset. In the lower half, it's Ohio State versus Florida State. Sounds like a great football matchup...except it's not. It's a better basketball matchup now than it would be in football. Which is weird.

1. Gonzaga got screwed by the NCAA again. Perpetually forced to travel light years from Spokane, the Selection Committee did the Zags no favors by setting them up with West Virginia in Pittsburgh.

2. I already sang Vandy's praises, but that alone cannot absolve them of their recent NCAA Tournament failures. How they play versus Harvard could go a long way towards making my bracket look a lot better after the first weekend.

Hardest Game to Pick: 6 Cincinnati v. 11 Texas
A battle between two really-not-that-great teams. This game figures to be a total snoozer. Which is basically why I have almost nothing to say on the subject.

Best Player: Jared Sullinger
Think Paul Millsap, but not as athletic.

Dark Horse: Vanderbilt. Obviously. Wait. Does the fact that it's obvious make them a non-dark horse? Crap. I guess it'll have to be.....ummm...Wisconsin?

Most Interesting Matchup: Vanderbilt v. Syracuse
A deep, talented zone defending team with no player of impact on low block versus a 3-point sniping team with a strong low-post player. Styles make fights, and the yin and yang elements of this game make it one I really want to see.

MIDWEST REGION- ST. LOUIS, MO
North Carolina. Kansas. Georgetown. NC State. Temple. Michigan. This bracket could be renamed the "Historians' Bracket" because it's loaded with teams that have long histories of high-quality hoops. Though the first three teams I mentioned are the top seeds here, it's a two-team race. It's Ol' Roy's boys versus his exes. North Carolina is easily the second-most talented team in the whole tourney, but also the worst defensive team among the top 8 teams (by seed) in the whole tourney. That's worrisome considering they might have to face Doug McDermott, one of the nation's most lethal scorers, and Thomas Robinson, the best non-Anthony Davis big man in the country before they make it to New Orleans. Did I mention that if they do meet Kansas in the Elite 8 that the game is in St. Louis, only hours from Lawrence? That's why I'm taking the Jayhawks. They defend well, have matchups for most of UNC's players, and a better backcourt.

1. Georgetown had better be on upset alert. Belmont is battle-tested, familiar with the tournament, talented, and deep. I think Georgetown's style keeps teams in it and if this holds true, the Hoyas could get bounced early again.

2. The same could be said about the Michigan-Ohio game. Michigan's odd style of offense could play right into Ohio's hands. Remember, Ohio boatraced Georgetown a few years ago in the tourney. Underestimate the MAC champs at your peril.

Hardest Game to Pick: 8 Creighton v. 9 Alabama
A total contrast of styles here. Bama basketball is just like its football team- all defense, competent offense (if that). Creighton's offense is potent and they have the best player on the floor. I'm totally 50-50 on it, but give me the Tide here.

Best Player: Thomas Robinson
What, you expected differently?

Dark Horse: Sounds weird, but it's probably Belmont. Why they got a 14 escapes me. Probably the worst case of underseeding in the field this year.

Most Interesting Matchup: UNC v. Kansas
Who doesn't want to watch Roy Williams squirm against his old team?

That's all I got for you guys. Give me Kentucky v. Mizzou, and Florida State v. Kansas in the Final Four. Kentucky beats Kansas for the title. John Calipari is finally recognized as an elite coach. The whole team goes pro and Calipari is left to recruit the next wave of blue chippers for Big Blue.

Enjoy March Madness!

A Day as NBA Commissioner

That's right, David- I have three splendid ideas to fix your league

Every fan (and person) likes to daydream about what they'd do if they were in charge- if they were the president, the pope, the manager, the head coach, etc. It's part of life and completely within human nature for people to think about. 

The other day, I had just such a daydream. I was David Stern and I had my heart set on correcting some of the NBA's structural flaws, along with a few, uh, cosmetic changes for a few teams. Here's the NBA according Ryan. 

I. Contraction
My first order of business is to axe the Raptors, Hornets, Bobcats, and Nets. My justification for this is quite simple. The league as it sits right now is simply too big for its own good. 

1. The Raptors are Canada-based. I have nothing against Canada. But this is the National Basketball Association. And they are really not all that good. Their team is the perfect example of what an inflated league does to the bottom-tier teams. Every single one of their players should be a bench/role player on a better team. Every single one of them. Who wouldn't like having DeMar Derozan coming off the bench as a scoring 2? Or Andrea Bargnani as your 3rd or 4th big. in a Toni Kukoc (old school) or Ryan Anderson (more recent) type role?

2. The Hornets have no owner. Seemingly no one wants to buy them. New Orleans is a sorry basketball town. They don't care. The future is grim in New Orleans without a superstar. And that's too bad.

3. The Bobcats are the "South Toronto Raptors" if you will. A perfect example of what a diluted (and deluded) league looks like. 

4. The Nets were my final pick because frankly, New York doesn't need 2 teams in every major sport. I am not an East Coast hater, I just think New York should be a Knicks town and cut it right there. I don't think very many people in New York or New Jersey would care.  

MJ does not approve 

I can already imagine my commissioner's email inbox once Michael Jordan and Mikhail Prokhorov find out. Pissing off one rich guy with a huge ego is bad enough (just ask LeBron). Pissing off two, one of whom is the greatest player in the history of the sport and the other of whom might become the political leader of Russia just might get me on somebody's hit list. But that's what leaders do- they make difficult decisions when the time calls for it. That's why we follow them. 

II. Realignment 

Note: Italics indicate teams that switch divisions.
Eastern Conference
Atlantic
Boston Celtics
New York Knicks
Philadelphia 76ers
Washington Wizards

Central
Chicago Bulls
Indiana Pacers
Detroit Pistons
Milwaukee Bucks
Cleveland Cavaliers

Southeast
Miami Heat
Atlanta Hawks
Orlando Magic
Memphis Grizzlies

Western Conference
Southwest
San Antonio Spurs
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets
Denver Nuggets

Northwest
Portland Trail Blazers
Oklahoma City Thunder
Utah Jazz
Minnesota Timberwolves 

Pacific
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Clippers
Phoenix Suns
Sacramento Kings
Golden State Warriors

Since I decided to contract four teams, each league would have to be evenly divided into 13 teams- two divisions with four team and one with five. When it came to ultimately deciding who stays and who goes, proximity to divisional foes was my ultimate deciding factor. I still haven't quite figured out how divisional scheduling would work, but something along the lines of what Major League Baseball did with the National League Central when it had six teams would be a good starting point. 

Since the Southwest division loses both New Orleans and Memphis, I had to pick a team from one of the other west divisions. Phoenix and Denver were the closest to Texas, but I ultimately decided on Denver as I felt they would do better to keep the conference more balanced.

My decision to move Memphis was based basically on the fact that they are the most "eastern" of the western conference's teams. (Maybe Minnesota is more eastern longitudinally speaking, but the Wolves are better suited to playing in the Northwest than the Grizzlies are, unless they were to move back to Vancouver.)

III. Aesthetic Changes

1. Move the Thunder back to Seattle, rename them the SuperSonics, forcibly remove Clay Bennett as owner, build them a new, top-notch arena (paid on Clay Bennett's and the NBA's tab), and make them publicly-funded, just like the Packers in football. They also get back all of their pre-relocation paraphernalia and history. 

Think I'm being too harsh on Oklahoma City? Think that charming, lovable Oklahoma City deserves a team as much as Seattle? Think again. Better yet, just watch this movie and tell me that the Thunder rightfully belong to Oklahoma City. 

This was by far the easiest of all of the decisions I had to make. Given the way the Sonics were STOLEN from Seattle, this would be the best form of poetic justice I can think of for the fans and people of Seattle. Clay Bennett humiliated. David Stern humiliated. The city of Seattle rewarded with a fine, lovable team that they will own and a new spiffy arena to match. That would be a great make-up present for Seattle. In reality, it would never happen, but a guy can dream. 

2. Can we please rename the Wizards the Bullets again! Pretty please? They already redid their uniforms, take it one step further...PLEASE! 

How much cooler is that logo? You know you love it....

There you have it. One day on the job, and the NBA suddenly looks a lot better. What do you think? Think I've been drinking too much? Haven't slept enough? Or am I right on? Let me know in the comments below. 

Recruiting Wars: College Football's Final Frontier

Today's piece is on one of my favorite parts of college football- recruiting! Though the games on the field may have ended in January (or earlier), there's still time to ruin your rival's offseason and help build momentum, hope, and excitement throughout the program if you're a coach. The road to on-field success runs through America's high school and preparatory academies, where the next generation of stars are waiting to be harvested by the leaders of today. These young men represent five of America's best uncommitted high school players.

1. WR Dorial Green-Beckham (Springfield, Missouri- Hillcrest HS)
Scout.com Rank: #1
Rivals.com Rank: #1
ESPN 150 Rank: #3
Who's on his list: Arkansas v. Mizzou v. Texas v. Oklahoma v. Alabama

Beckham has played his recruitment as close to the vest as any top recruit has in recent memory, offering very little beyond short quotes and comments on his two official visits (to Texas and Arkansas). This 6-6, 225 Calvin Johnsonesque monster of a wide receiver has nearly unlimited potential and the silence of his recruitment has only heightened the already huge interest surrounding him. Staying home for Missouri would be a big coup for Gary Pinkel and the Tigers as they move into SEC play. Going to any of the other schools would put him in situations with elite head coaches and give him the exposure only those schools can offer. Arkansas is the best fit, as the Hogs lost their top 3 wide receivers, return Knile Davis at RB and Tyler Wilson at QB to go along with Bobby Petrino calling the plays.

Prediction: Arkansas
Dark Horse: Texas

2. ATH Davonte' Neal (Scottsdale, Arizona- Chapparal HS)

Scout.com Rank: #74
Rivals.com Rank: #107
ESPN 150 Rank: #8
Who's on his list: Ohio State v. Notre Dame v. Arizona

Neal's recruitment has picked up quite a bit recently as both Brian Kelly of Notre Dame and Urban Meyer have come calling to make in-home visits on this speed demon. Neal has two-way ability as both a CB and WR and Meyer reportedly offered him a Percy Harvin role in his spread attack at Ohio State. (He's probably best suited for defensive back.) Kelly and Arizona's Rich Rodriguez have both been seeking Neal's commitment in recent days and weeks. The intrigue of this recruitment is due to Neal's reported interest in staying close to home but while reports state that the only out-of-state program he'd leave home for is Ohio State. Considering the momentum surrounding Ohio State and Urban Meyer, it's hard not to pick the Buckeyes. The hiring of Neal's high school coach by RichRod could tip the balance though.


Prediction: Ohio State
Dark Horse: Arizona

3. DT Eddie Goldman (Washington, D.C.- Collegiate Academy)

Scout.com Rank: #31
Rivals.com Rank: #7
ESPN 150 Rank: #10
Who's on his list: Alabama v. Auburn v. Florida State

The pursuit of Goldman hasn't been quite as crazy or hectic as that of other recruits', but that doesn't mean it's not interesting. The 315 pound monster wants to play in the south and his school choices reflect that. Both Alabama's Nick Saban and Auburn's Gene Chizik have made in-home visits, with Florida State's Jimbo Fisher ready to round off Goldman's in-home visitors. The 'Noles are believed to be the front-runner and have been there from the start.

Prediction: Florida State
Dark Horse: Alabama

4. OT Arik Armstead (Elk Grove, California- Pleasant Grove HS)

Scout.com Rank: #2
Rivals.com Rank: #61
ESPN 150 Rank: #24
Who's on his list: Cal v. Notre Dame v. USC v. Auburn v. Washington v. Oregon

The stories and speculation surrounding Armstead are saturated with the kind of mystery even the best Agatha Christie novels contain. No one really has a definitive clue where he'll go, as seemingly every school on his list has a legit shot. Once considered a lock to attend Cal, Armstead decided to keep his options open once Cal's ace recruiter, Tosh Lupoi, bolted for Washington. There are a trio of other compelling tidbits surrounding Armstead:
1. He is a legitimate DI basketball prospect. Several schools, including Washington and Oregon, are recruiting him as such. I doubt this has as much bearing on his decision as the next two points will.
2. Whatever school grabs him potentially gets the #2 safety prospect in the country, Shaq Thompson, as a package deal. The two are both very close to Lupoi. Thompson, who was originally committed to Cal, was very interested in Washington from the start.
3. His brother Armond, a former defensive lineman at USC, has been released from the school and (allegedly) wants to play with him. Only Auburn and Notre Dame are on his list of preferred destinations.

Prediction: Washington
Dark Horse: Oregon


Reality: Armstead chose to attend the University of Oregon on January 29. 

5. ATH Stefon Diggs (Olney, Maryland- Our Lady of Good Counsel HS)

Scout.com Rank: #6
Rivals.com Rank: #8
ESPN 150 Rank: #13
Who's on his list: Florida v. Auburn v. Ohio State

The nation's best high school WR with two names, Diggs had been narrowed down to SEC rivals Florida and Auburn until Ohio State and Urban Meyer entered the picture, securing a late visit from Diggs. He had a great time visiting Gainesville and talking with the coaching staff there, leaving me with a general sense that the Gators are in the lead. Auburn has a chance, too. Don't underestimate the Urban effect, either.

Prediction: Florida
Dark Horse: Ohio State


You already know this, but recruiting is a terribly inexact science. A multitude of factors go into how players develop- everything from how they're coached, how comfortable they are on campus, team fit, chemistry, the player's work ethic and coachability, etc.
It also bears noting that online recruiting services can be spotty and tend to overrate recruits who sign onto elite programs. Consider the following scouting report (from ESPN's Recruiting Nation Football) on this wide receiver, who recently won the Fred Biletnikoff Award (I redacted the player's name).

"[Name redacted] is a smooth-looking, natural receiver prospect with well-rounded tools at the position. A potential sleeper at this time. He is tall, rangy and layered with good muscle tone. Shows great downfield, big-catch ability with his good size, hands and large catch radius. Displays very good concentration tracking the ball in tight coverage and plucks the ball smoothly in stride. Adequate route running skills: looks smooth snagging short hitches and screens and transitions quickly upfield. Creates adequate separation on intermediate-to-deep routes as well; at times he looks like he is just cruising but can reach top-speed quickly and deceptively accelerate past corners on vertical routes. Tough to press and mirror in off-man with his foot-quickness and fakes. Good vision with loose hips and wiggle after the catch to make the first defender miss and flashes adequate-to-good burst when he finds a seam. However, he is not a burner and lack of top-end speed needed to move the chains at the next level is a concern. Fluid route runner but lacks sharpness and good burst out of his breaks to create consistent separation. Needs to refine that area. Overall, [name redacted] is a well-rounded receiver with the skills to play both slot and wide out at the next level; very solid prospect with big catch ability."

Sounds like a top prospect, doesn't he? Add in the fact that he had offers from four quality Big 12 (but not Texas or Oklahoma) teams, was 6-2 and 190 pounds as a high school senior, and played in a good football state, you'd think he would have garnered a pretty solid rating from the good folks at ESPN (He got a 74 out of 100 and was considered the 139th-best prospect at wide receiver). About 40 of the top 50 guys at his position are players who did absolutely nothing of note in college.
But when you commit to schools considered "good, not great" like Oklahoma State, your recruit ranking will suffer. And he's not the only one. I could run through a list of player after player of top recruits who got chased by all the big-name schools and weren't drafted by the NFL four years later for months. Similarly, I could do the same but vice versa, where I name off tons of guys who got drafted but weren't highly recruited out of high school.

Still wondering about who that wide receiver was? Follow the links.
ESPN Recruiting Nation Profile
Wide Receiver Rankings for that Year
Highlight

I'm not saying this to rain on your parade or be a debbie-downer, I'm just trying to remind you that a bunch of these guys simply won't pan out under the pressure of major college football. Enjoy signing day (February 1) and have a great week. More articles are on their way, I promise!

Breaking Down the FCS Championship Game: Part 2: The Defenses

Three weeks ago, I began my analysis of the FCS Championship game between North Dakota State and Sam Houston State. Today, I talk defense and give you my pick plus game analysis.

TEAM SCHEME- SAM HOUSTON STATE 
Sam Houston State primarily lines up in an exotic 4-2-5 alignment with the 5th defensive back typically being a safety instead of a corner. It is not a true nickel alignment for the very fact that if it were, and they played a 5th corner instead of safety, they would be susceptible to run attacks. This same style is what Texas Christian runs under Gary Patterson and is noted for its heavy emphasis on speed. This mirrors SHSU's emphasis on speed they share on offense as well.
The Bearkats' defense had an excellent season, giving up the fewest rushing yards per game nationally at 69.9 yards per game (2.6 yards per carry). Like most elite defenses in college football, they heavily rotate players and will do across the front 7 with regularity.
Among these front 7 players are two FBS transfers- Andrew Weaver, a junior defensive end from Waco, Texas, and Oklahoma transfer Jarrett Brown, a sophomore defensive linemen. Both players shared SHSU's team lead in sacks this year. The Bearkats' linebackers rotate between four to five players at the positions. With such balanced minutes between the linebacker corps, players who don't start have more tackles than listed starters. The real strength of Sam Houston State's defense is their defensive backfield, the best in the Southland Conference and one of the best nationally. Starting cornerbacks Daxton Swanson and Bookie Snead are excellent man-to-man defenders. Swanson had eight interceptions and eight pass breakups, while Sneed has added three more interceptions and broke up another 12. The real headliner for SHSU is safety Darnell Taylor, the SLC defensive player of the year who led the team in tackles with 118 (81 solo). SHSU rotates three other players at safety. 


TEAM SCHEME- NORTH DAKOTA STATE

The Bison are a true defensive juggernaut and are so because of the huge emphasis the coaching staff has placed on that side of the ball. While NDSU does not have an impressive offense in terms of conference or national rank, they make up for it defensively. They rank first nationally in scoring defense and have stifled nearly every single offense they have faced this year. NDSU's 4-3 alignment is very balanced and no one group is emphasized, though most would agree that the strength of the Bison defense is their defensive line, which runs an LSU-worthy eight deep. 

Coulter Boyer is the leader with nine sacks and his presence frees up NDSU's interior linemen, who clog rushing lanes and provide push up the middle. The linebackers, led by Chad Willson, Preston Evans, and Travis Beck are all fast, interchangeable, and sure-handed. They give NDSU's defensive coaches flexibility to call any number of exotic blitzes or coverages. Adding to the strength of the linebacking corps is safety Colten Heagle, who returned from injury in NDSU's previous game against Georgia Southern and whose strong tackling and aggression make him a fourth linebacker at times. Of course, he wouldn't be allowed to play that way unless the Bison had elite corners. Sophomore Marcus Williams was the headliner, winning All-American consideration and Christian Dudzik and John Pike both add their own skills to the defensive backfield. FS Daniel Eaves won't play versus Sam Houston due to a torn meniscus, but NDSU had to adjust to life without Heagle for most of the year, so the injury is not expected to be catastrophic. 

THE PICK

The biggest x-factor for me going into this game is the long layoff both teams are facing. Given the complexity and unusual nature of the Bearkat offense, giving NDSU almost a whole month to prepare does them no favors. Additionally, since their offense is timing-based, it's fair to question just how sharp it will be early on. All offenses rely on timing to be sure, but looking at the way option teams have fared at the FBS level in games where their opponents have been given time to prepare, it begs the question. To illustrate where I'm going with this line of thinking, consider how Oregon has fared in recent high-profile FBS games. 

Other than a Rose Bowl win this year for Oregon, they had struggled in games where they played against similarly talented teams who had time to prepare- Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, their National Championship Game appearance versus Auburn, and their season opening game against LSU. Each and every one of these games put the Ducks' spread option up against well-prepared defenses. 

Like I said before, all offenses rely on timing to some extent. North Dakota State's power offense is less timing-focused and makes no attempt to conceal what their primary objective is- they want to wear you down with power running. This leads to my next x-factor. NDSU's offensive line outweighs their SHSU counterparts on the defensive line by nearly 40 pounds a man (37). Will the Bearkats' depth and conditioning be enough to keep them afloat in the second half of what could be a close game? Or will they yield to NDSU? I saw only one team this year (Northern Iowa) who was not completely worn down by NDSU's offensive style this year. Because of that ratio of success for NDSU, I'm led to believe that NDSU will succeed in this venture- it's up to the SHSU offense to dictate tempo.

NDSU 34, SHSU 17. 

Breaking Down the FCS Championship Game: Part 1: The Offenses

It's the holiday season and with that comes a plethora of shopping, weather changes (knock on wood), and our final dose of high-major college football as the NCAA dumps its annual buffet of 30-plus bowl games on us. Lost in the shuffle of this bevy of entertainment is the FCS Championship game. This year's tilt features two teams marching into the uncharted territory that is Frisco, Texas for the first time. In part one of my two-part series on this biggest of FCS games, I'll attempt to break down and analyze these team's two offenses.

(In my best Michael Buffer voice)
In the orange corner, from Huntsville, Texas, the champions of the Southland Conference at 14-0...the Sam Houston State Bearkats!!!

TEAM SCHEME- SAM HOUSTON STATE BEARKATS
Sam Houston State's (SHSU from now on) bread-and-butter, like so much of the FCS, is their rushing game, ranked fourth nationally. One look at the team's stats and depth chart tells you all you need to know- four Bearkats have over 300 yards rushing on the season, two are at or over 1,000 yards and their passing attack is 103rd overall. It wouldn't be unfair to call Sam Houston State one-dimensional. When your one dimension is running the ball and it's as good as SHSU's, it could be worse. There's a reason running the ball is prevalent in FCS- it wins. Consider this- only 1 of the top 10 passing offenses in FCS (Lehigh) made the playoffs, whereas four of the top 10 rushing offenses made the playoffs (and the 11th- and 12th-best rushing offenses made the playoffs too.)

Sam Houston runs the ball out of a lot of formations and I think it would be fair to categorize them as a spread, read option-based scheme. Keep in mind that "spread" does not mean they throw the ball 40 times a game- it simply means an offense run primarily out of the backfield from shotgun or pistol sets. Based on their personnel, it's a wise decision as running back Tim Flanders and  WR/RB Richard Sincere are best suited to use their speed in space. Philosophically they're quite similar to Oregon, though don't rely on the hectic pace the Ducks do.

PERSONNEL
Quarterbacks: QB Brian Bell won't wow you or evoke memories of former Bearkat great Rhett Bomar, but he'll manage the game (62% completion percentage), protect the ball (5 interceptions), and run the option with aplomb. Bell was #2 in FCS football in passing efficiency, but the Bearkats only threw the ball for more than 200 yards in a game once all year. Bell added 400 yards and 6 TDs on the ground. To use a basketball comparison, Bell is a classic pass-first point guard. He's not there to score, he's there to get the ball to his teammates in places so that they can score. He'll get his TD's when you don't respect him or cheat on their running game, but his strongest asset is the distributing ability he has mastered this year.

Running Backs: The first guy most FCS fans think of when you bring up SHSU is easily sophomore All-American RB Tim Flanders. The Midwest City, Oklahoma native and Kansas State transfer is the bell cow for coach Willie Fritz's scheme as evidenced by his 1,560 rushing yards and 22 rushing TD's. Toss in another 404 yards and 2 TD's in the receiving game and it's pretty easy to see why Bill Snyder wanted Flanders at K-State- Flanders reminds me of former KSU stud Darren Sproles.

Flanders

 The other weapon the 'Kats throw at their opponents is athlete Richard Sincere. It's hard for me to call Sincere a RB because he is used all over the field in much the same way Florida utilized Percy Harvin and Kentucky used Randall Cobb. One of Sam Houston's favorite formations is in fact a "WildKat" package featuring Sincere at QB that is very similar to how Kentucky used Cobb last year. Any time you see Sincere in the backfield, odds are good you're going to see a speed option run of some kind.
Rounding out SHSU's depth chart are running backs Ryan Wilson and Keyshawn Hill, who combined to offer  an additional 732 yards and 6 TD's off the bench.
None of SHSU's running backs are particularly big (Flanders is the biggest at 5-9, 210) but what they lack in size, they make up for in brute speed.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: SHSU has no true go-to wideout, but they've got plenty of speed and and balance there. Five different 'Kats have more than 240 yards receiving, but the team's top 2 wide receivers are the aforementioned Flanders and Sincere. The only true starter SHSU features at WR (they consider Sincere a WR on their official roster) exclusively is Torrance Williams, who had 3 TD's and 397 yards (28 yards per game). The rest of the depth chart is a mishmash of guys averaging around 25 yards a game who each have anywhere from one to three TD catches all year.
The team's tight ends combined for 3 catches and 30 yards over the whole season. That's not a misprint, folks. You can forget about their tight ends.

Sincere

Offensive Line: To have such a phenomenal rushing offense like SHSU's, it goes without saying that the big uglies were a big part of it. LT Chris Crockett and C Travis Watson were both First-Team All-Americans. Rounding out the offensive line starters for Sam Houston are RT Kaleb Hopson, OG Matt Boyles, and OG Dan Jenkins. Across the board, their offensive line averages 288 pounds. They've only allowed 9 sacks all year to boot.

(In my Michael Buffer voice)
In the green corner, from Fargo, North Dakota, the champions of the Missouri Valley Conference at 13-1...the North Dakota State University Bison!!!

TEAM SCHEME- NORTH DAKOTA STATE BISON
When NDSU hired former Nebraska assistant Craig Bohl almost a decade ago, some wondered if the Bison were going to go back their option roots. Instead, Bohl brought with him a power running version of the West Coast offense that permeates the majority of NFL and has applications in nearly every college playbook today. Bohl's version of the West Coast is akin to Wisconsin's under Barry Alvarez or Bret Bielema or Jim Harbaugh's Stanford teams, featuring multiple runners running behind fullbacks and tight ends. As far as NDSU's passing game is concerned, how often and well it has been utilized has varied depending on Bohl's level of trust in the starting QB he's using at that moment.
NDSU is certainly more balanced than their Texan counterparts and will run a lot of their plays out of i-formation looks to go along with other pro-style formations featuring 2 TE's. Less common are shotgun plays, but NDSU has opened up their playbook more as the season has worn on, a sign of the development sophomore QB Brock Jensen has made.

PERSONNEL

Jensen

Quarterbacks: Sophomore QB Brock Jensen matured from the raw, immature freshman he was in his freshman season into a steady, reliable game manager with improved accuracy in 2011. Although he threw the ball almost 100 times more than Bell, he only managed 13 TD's to Bell's 20. However, his 3 INTs were the 2nd-fewest in the country (among eligible passers). Jensen, like Bell, knows his role. He's there to distribute the ball, protect it, and keep his team in the game.

McNorton

Running backs: Just like SHSU, this is where NDSU's offense comes from. NDSU doesn't have the depth or gamebreaking ability out of the backfield that SHSU does, but they certainly have the balance. Both of NDSU's top rushers, D.J. McNorton and Sam Ojuri topped the 1,000 yard mark this year and each had 11 or more TD's to go with it. Although their stats are similar, their skill sets are somewhat varied, allowing NDSU to broaden their offensive playcalling depending on which particular back they have in the game. McNorton is the more well-rounded of the bunch, catching 22 passes to Ojuri's 4 this year. He'll be used both in the screen game and as a check-down for Jensen. Ojuri is more of a slashing running back and the Bison like to use him as their closer as his juking, hard-cutting style are the perfect style to wipe the floor with defenders tired of being run on.

Receivers/Tight Ends: Unlike Sam Houston, NDSU utilizes their receivers much more conventionally. Warren Holloway is the big name here, and he led the Bison in receptions, yards, and receiving TD's this year. Jensen looks his way early and often (Holloway had more than 30 more catches than the next closest Bison WR) and his size and leaping ability make him absolutely deadly in the red zone. Complement Holloway is North Dakota kid Ryan Smith, a Wes Welker clone who lives out of the slot and whose short-area quickness and speed make him lethal in space. He has had to deal with a nagging hamstring injury and missed most of NDSU's first 2 playoff games against James Madison, Lehigh and Georgia Southern. No other NDSU WR's have emerged of note as this unit was decimated by injuries this year.
Unlike Sam Houston, NDSU heavily utilizes their tight ends in both of their roles. Matt Veldman, the 6-7 Becker, Minnesota native, was NDSU's 3rd leading pass-catcher this year and his ability as both blocker and receiver doesn't allow defenses to key on whether NDSU is running or passing based on his being in the game or not. Backup TE Garrett Bruhn added 10 catches as another safety valve for the Bison.

Offensive Line: Just like SHSU, the Bison feature a monstrous (in size and talent) offensive line. OT Paul Cornick was an All-American. Accompanying him on the line for NDSU is Austin Richard, Joe Lund, Tyler Gimmestad, and Billy Turner. One of the MVFC's best offensive lines, the Bison allowed only 21 sacks in 14 games this year. They average 303 pounds.


Who will these offenses be going up against? That's still to come in Part Two of FCS Championship preview. (I promise no more Michael Buffer references.)

Breaking Down the College Football Coaching Carousel

We've had a slew of hiring/firings in college football, involving at least 10 (ten!) openings that I can think of. Ohio State, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Arizona, Washington State, Memphis, UCLA, Ole Miss, Kansas, Illinois, Arizona State, and UAB have all removed their head coaches and were or are looking for new guys to run their programs. I think Penn State is looking for a new guy too, but I haven't heard too much about that. I also heard Ohio State filled their position too. 


For the first part, I'll break down the new hires we know about- Rich Rodriguez at Arizona, Mike Leach at Washington State, and the blockbuster of them all, Urban Meyer at Ohio State. 

Rich Rodriguez, Arizona

Age: 48

Coaching Résumé

Salem (WV) College (now Salem International University- competed at DII level) 

Record: (1988 season) 2-8 (dropped football program after one year with Rodriguez) 

Glenville State (1990-1996)- Won 3 conference titles and was national runner-up in 1993 NAIA Championship...Was WVIAC Coach of the Year twice and NAIA COY in 1993. 

• Record: 43-28-2 

Served as Assistant Coach, Offensive Coordinator, and Quarterback Coach for Tulane from 1997 to 1998 and Offensive Coordinator/Associate Head Coach at Clemson in 1999

West Virginia (2001-2007)- Won 4 Big East Conference championships...2-3 in bowl games he coached (West Virginia won the 2007 Fiesta Bowl but he had already left for Michigan by this time.)...Big East Coach of the Year in 2002, 2003, and 2005.

• Record: 60-26

Michigan (2007-2009)- 0-1 in bowl games

• Record: 15-22 

Career Record: 120-84 (2-4 in postseason bowls)

Outlook at Arizona:

In terms of overall fit and realistic athletic department expectations for football, this is a good landing spot for RichRod. It will be new for him conference-wise and regionally since he doesn't have many connections in the area. He'll also need to work hard recruiting so he can get the players he wants for his scheme and deal with the inevitable transfers that will occur. 

Implementing his run-heavy spread option attack into the finesse Pac-12 could provide some culture shock. The transition will take a few years but if the AD is patient with Rodriguez (and most AD's haven't shown a lot of patience recently), he'll get the necessary athletes to put together a rushing offense to rival Oregon's out west. On paper, it's not a perfect fit, but it could work with time. 

Rating this hire on the ever-so-popular scale of 1-10, 10 being "Nick Saban-esque," I'd give this hire a solid 8. 

Mike Leach, Washington State

Age: 50 

Coaching Résumé

Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo (1987)- Assistant/Offensive Line Coach

College of the Desert (1988)- Assistant/Linebackers Coach

Iowa Wesleyan (1989-91)- Offensive Coordinator

Valdosta State (1992-96)- Offensive Coordinator at Valdosta State....1996 DII Offensive Coordinator of the Year 

Kentucky (1997-98)- Offensive Coordinator at Kentucky...mentored Tim Couch 

Oklahoma (1999)- Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks Coach

Texas Tech (2000-2009)- 2008 Big XII Coach of the Year, 5-4 in bowl games

• Record: 84-43

Career Record: 84-43 (5-4 postseason)

Outlook at Washington State:

Of the big three hires we've seen so far, this fit is absolutely the most spectacular and best. When it comes to winning in backwater college towns, pirate connoisseur Mike Leach is right up there with the legendary Bill Snyder in terms of guys who win big despite coaching in the sticks. Considering athletic director Bill Moos wanted a flashy offense that would "light up the scoreboard," getting Leach's Air Raid offensive attack was a humongous coup for the Cougars. Moos doesn't (or shouldn't) expect conference championships every single year, but Wazzu can be competitive and has been in the past, including going to its fair share of Rose Bowls. It also has churned out QB's you've heard of like Drew Bledsoe, Mark Rypien, and Ryan Leaf (see video). That's not to say everything is rosy in Pullman, though. There are a few sticking points for me. 

WSU is paying Leach a hefty sum of money, almost $2M per year out of an estimated athletic department budget of $38M. Then there is the little matter of two pending lawsuits related to and stemming from alleged mistreatment of Adam James by Leach while at Texas Tech. Leach is eccentric and does come with some baggage and will say awfully weird and rude things from time to time, but Wazzu will put up with that as long as Leach's teams put up the points and wins...and I expect him to do well. 

On a scale of 1-10, 10 being "Nick Saban-esque", I'd say about a 7.5...which is about a 10 for Washington State. 

Urban Meyer, Ohio State

Age: 47

Coaching Résumé

Ohio State (1986-87)- Tight Ends and Wide Receivers Coach

Illinois State (1988-89)- Outside Linebackers/Quarterbacks/Wide Receivers Coach

Colorado State (1990-95)- Wide Receivers Coach

Notre Dame (1996-2000)- Wide Receivers Coach

Bowling Green (2001-02)- Head Coach...2001 MAC Coach of the Year

• Record: 17-6

Utah (2003-04)- Head Coach....2004 Coach of the Year...2003 and 2004 MWC Coach of the Year...2-0 in bowl games

• Record: 22-2

Florida (2005-10) Head Coach...5-1 in bowl games (4-0 BCS games)...2-time National Champion

• Record: 65-15 

Career Record: 104-23 (7-1 in bowl games)

Outlook at Ohio State:

In the biggest shock since Europeans discovered there was land between Europe and Asia (that's sarcasm, folks), the Ohio native Urban Meyer stepped out of his one-year retirement to take the position he once professed to be his "dream job." 

Dream job indeed

To that end, it's a perfect marriage as both Ohio State and Meyer really love each other. Philosophically, it'll be an adjustment for the Buckeyes, long-used to seeing bulldozing rushing attacks led by power backs like Archie Griffin, Eddie George, Robert Smith, and Maurice Clarett. I expect Ohio State to be fairly patient with Meyer, as they know that with looming NCAA penalties on the horizon it might be a couple of years before the Buckeyes can officially win any Big Ten and National Championships. With that in mind, Ohio State can afford to wait for Meyer to assemble the athletes he wants to fit his spread option scheme. Once he gets those, Ohio State will win big in the Big Ten. In the meantime, they'll have to manage his stress and fatigue levels. The best way to do that? Pay his staff a really nice salary so they stick around and keep him sane. That's the big risk with Meyer. 

Scale of 1-10....I'd give it a solid 9.5, even with Ohio State's insanely high expectations and Meyer's durability concern. 

For your bonus, I'll rank the remaining other positions available from best job to worst job.

1. Texas A&M- SEC newbie + easy access to Texas's rich high school talent pipeline = good chance at success, IMO. Sure you got to deal with that conference, but if Arkansas can win, why not A&M?

2. North Carolina- Winnable conference to say the least. Nice facilities, too. 

3. Penn State- This would typically be #1 for almost anyone else, but you might've heard that place is a mess right now...off the field and at QB. 

4. Arizona State- Arizona is rebuilding, UCLA has no coach, USC is entering its reduced scholarships phase of NCAA purgatory, and the rest of the Pac 12 South isn't that impressive. It should have been easier to win there for Dennis Erickson. 

5. Illinois- Kind of on the fence with this program. Some weeks you're like, "Hey, they've got some talent..." Then the next week you're saying "ew!" like an adolescent girl dissecting a frog. You can win here, just don't expect to playing on January 1st that often. 

6. UCLA- I'm not convinced they're fully committed to winning in football. Not my cup o' tea if I'm the new guy. It beats the other alternatives, though. 

7. Ole Miss- Let's see....division games against Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, and Mississippi State every year. Oh and then you play some combination of South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee and Vandy for your 8 conference games. No wonder they can't win consistently. That schedule is brutal!

8. Kansas- They only gave Turner Gill two years to win with what was left of the human mound's players? Really? 

9. UAB- Well, I guess you could do worse than taking over a team in a winnable conference with access to Alabama and Auburn's table scraps. 

10. Memphis- Ummmm.....it's Memphis. I think I personally would take this job if they just offered it to me on the street, but only, only, only, only as my first gig and as a stepping stone to bigger and better things...I'm looking at you Derek Dooley.... That bright orange "T" out in Knoxville could use my help....

50 Things I Think about the NFL

As promised, my massive "I'll make it up to you" blog post.

1. Cam Newton will be a better professional quarterback than Andrew Luck. I say this not to spite Mr. Luck or to discourage any fans of teams that want him, but Cam seems to be one of those rare guys with the “it” factor and has so much higher of a ceiling than Luck does. Plus, he’s already shown me something in the league.

2. My All-Rookie Team:

              QB Cam Newton, Carolina

Denarius Moore

              RB Mark Ingram, New Orleans

              RB DeMarco Murray, Dallas

              WR A.J. Green, Cincinnati

              WR Denarius Moore, Oakland

              WR Dane Sanzenbacher, Chicago

              TE Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota

              OL Nate Solder, New England

              OL Stefen Wisniewski, Oakland

              OL Mike Pouncey, Miami

              OL Danny Watkins, Philadelphia

              OL Tyron Smith, Dallas

              DE Jabaal Sheard, Cleveland

              DT Marcell Dareus, Buffalo

              DT Muhammad Wilkerson, New York Jets

Aldon Smith 

              DE Adrian Clayborn, Tampa Bay

              OLB Aldon Smith, San Francisco

              MLB Greg Jones, New York Giants

              OLB Von Miller, Denver

              DB Patrick Peterson, Arizona

              DB Chris Culliver, San Fran

              DB Rahim Moore, Denver

              DB Chimdi Chekwa, Oakland

              K Dan Bailey, Dallas

3. I think the Bengals will be an elite team in less than five years. Super Bowl-champion elite, not “win the division and lose at home” elite. Super Bowl elite. Get ready, Cincy.

4. I think Todd Haley deserves Coach of the Year if the Chiefs make the playoffs. If they go from 0-2 and losing their best offensive and defensive players and getting destroyed on the field in the process to making the playoffs for the second straight year, how on earth DON’T you give Haley the award? I know Jim Harbaugh has been excellent and will deservedly win it in all likelihood, even with the lockout and minimal time for him to meet his players, but the 49ers play in an even worse division than Kansas City. That and they have had relatively few major injuries to deal with. It’s still a big “if” for the Chiefs to make the playoffs, given Matt Cassel’s inconsistency and the fact that both Oakland and San Diego can both go on hot streaks as easily as Kansas City can go cold.

5. We can all agree that the Raiders gave up too much for Carson Palmer. But he’s played better than any Raiders QB since Rich Gannon won the MVP. He gives them stability and will allow their deep stable of young wideouts- Jacoby Ford, Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and T.J. Housmandzadeh to grow and blossom as NFL players. I’m particularly impressed with Moore. How he was a 5th round pick is beyond my comprehension. Ford is a dynamic athlete and makes at least 1-3 explosive plays per game. DHB is still a work in progress, but he’s really growing, too. Toss in their smashmouth running game, featuring three distinctly different styles of runners (four if you count fullback Marcel Reese as a running back), and a solid offensive line and this is a team primed to explode. The run defense needs work, but they're starting to look the like the Raiders of old. 

6. I think that the NFL MVP (non-Aaron Rodgers, because he’s winning it), is EASILY Eli Manning, who’s put up his best season so far. Yeah, Brady and Brees are trendier, but given that Eli hasn’t had all of his weapons and the Giants’ defense has had issues with injuries all year, you have to put Eli in the convo, at least Top 5. (For me, top two.)

7. I propose a three-way splitting of the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award between Darrelle Revis, Jared Allen, and DeMarcus Ware. They’ve been that good. Since their positional responsibilities and team successes are so varied, it’s fair to put them all together. Luckily this list will be weeded out as teams improve (Jets) and decline (Cowboys/Vikings.)

8. If the Vikings leave Minnesota, it won’t be long before their worst fears are realized. 

Brooks Reed

9. Lost in the shuffle of excellent rookie QB’s is the abundance of excellent rookie OLB’s. I can think of four easily that deserve acclaim- Aldon Smith (49ers), Ryan Kerrigan (Redskins), Brooks Reed (Texans), Von Miller (Broncos). The teams that got them struck absolute gold. All four will challenge for sack leadership in the league in the next few years.

10. Speaking of Brooks Reed, it’s scary to think what Green Bay would look like with him and Clay Matthews playing opposite each other. The Packers were projected by many (including yours truly) to take Reed, but they passed and went offensive line instead. 

11. The Broncos’ game plan against Kansas City might’ve been old-school and kind of admirable in a rugged sense of the term, but let’s see it for what it really was- the Broncos’ only reliable way of moving the ball consistently on offense. Where I'm from, we call that a gimmick.
Folks, that’s all the proof you need that Mr. Tebow belongs at FB or H-back. His own coaches gameplan around his talents. Almost every QB in the league would have won that game. Hell, I bet half of the QB’s in BCS conferences could’ve probably won that game.  

12. I think Steve Smith should be disqualified from the Comeback Player of the Year Award. Not because he hasn’t rebounded in a big way, but because he wasn’t injured last year. The guy who really deserves this is a guy coming off a season-ending injury. Not sure who that’d be yet.

13. The Lions are the NFL’s dirtiest team. They make the Steelers and Ravens look like the Colts.

14. How many bad losses will the Buccaneers take before they finally realize that a huge part of Josh Freeman’s success was due to the balance their offense had with LeGarrette Blount last year? Get him the ball 20+ times a game and watch the field open up for their offense.

15. I think a team that wants to mentor a young QB the right way and to ensure solid, consistent growth would do themselves good by hiring Chris Weinke. Teams like Cleveland, Minnesota, Arizona, Kansas City (when they draft a QB next year), Seattle, or the Jets would be nice fits for him. (Particularly Minnesota, given the Florida State connection at QB.) Heck, even the Bay Area has a few young QBs that could really use solid mentoring (Terrelle Pryor and Colin Kaepernick). 

16. Speaking of Kaepernick, I’ll be extremely interested in him with this 49ers team next year, should they go that route in 2012-13. I have a feeling this 2011 crop of rookie QB's will be one for the record books. Almost like the NFL’s version of the 2003 LeBron-Melo-Wade-Bosh NBA draft.

17. Jim Irsay needs to shut the hell up on Twitter. Stop tweeting about your team’s inner dynamics. You’re the CEO of the franchise- act like one. You don't see Bill Gates clowning around on twitter. 

18. I don’t expect the NFL to have two games as much fun to watch happening simultaneously as the November 5 LSU-Alabama and Kansas State-Oklahoma State games were for a very long time.

19. Green Bay Packers- Perfect in record only. They remind me of the 2009 Saints- major offense, turnover-creating defense.

20. San Francisco 49ers- Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman are easily the two best linebackers that share a team. They’re both 3-down players, too. This is huge in their 3-4 defensive scheme.

21. Baltimore Ravens- Beating up on the Steelers never felt so good, right? To follow it up with a turd of a game like the one against Seattle is simply unacceptable for a team that might need 3 wins to get to the Super Bowl. Can’t be consistent? Then go home- that’s the name of the game. Hard for me to trust Baltimore 100%.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers- Make it two straight years they’ve been punked by Joe Flacco at Heinz Field in the regular season. They better hope that trend ends soon, or this old team will end up looking like the Vikings- aging roster and one or two young studs on offense.

23. New York Giants- Speaking of back-to-back punkings, had to be fun for Eli to pull another rabbit out against Tom Brady again. I trust them in a high-pressure road playoff game more than any other team in the league, bar none.

24. Houston Texans- They call plays like they’re going to kill Arian Foster. Luckily for him, he’s got Ben Tate making big plays while giving him a breather. I’d like them a lot more if they more reliable secondary receiving options after Andre Johnson. Right now their passing offense is dump offs to Foster or Owen Daniels. Not going to cut it in January, boys. Once they get Andre Johnson back, watch out. Their defense is filthy. Brooks Reed isn’t getting enough love in a stacked OLB rookie class.

25. New England Patriots- I think you’re looking at a Colts-esque team if they lost Tom Brady. Sure, their backup QBs are better than Indy’s, but otherwise, they’d be at their absolute best an 8-win team without Brady hiding their deficiencies.

26. Cincinnati Bengals- 2011 is going to be all about getting Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, and that defense enough experience to prime them for a nice run. The timing for this couldn’t be better- they’ve drafted well, acquired high draft picks (thanks, Hue Jackson), and their prime divisional opponents’ windows are closing. This creates a power rift and creates an opening for a hungry team like the Bengals to hop in. This situation reminds me a ton of the early 1990’s Cowboys. You can figure who their Troy Aikman is and who their Michael Irvin is. Rookie Clint Boling can be Nate Newton and Jermaine Gresham will be Jay Novacek.
Hopefully they can add some more pieces around those players (namely a quality rushing attack and some more targets for Dalton) and keep the defense intact.

27. New Orleans Saints- Do they have any elite talents on this team besides Drew Brees? Nope. That’s how good Brees has been. If you didn’t think of him in the Top 5 Best Players in the NFL class, you ought to, because he has been ridiculously good for them.

28. Chicago Bears- I think the Bears would be near winless without Jay Cutler. (Bonus thought- Mr. Cutler, for all his critics (fair or not) is easily the most underrated and toughest QB in the NFL. No one has a better arm and willingness to make the big throw.)                     

29. Atlanta Falcons- I don’t know what to make of Atlanta. One week they’re getting killed by the Bears, the next they’re pulling a rabbit out of their hat against Philly. Then they’re getting squashed by the Packers again. Luckily Tampa Bay can’t get their act together.

30. Detroit Lions- Well, that’s more like what I expected from the Lions. I’m very interested to see how the league handles Matthew Stafford’s egregious facemask/helmet grab “tackle.” In a league that protects QBs far more than necessary, I bet he’ll get a slap on the wrist. The guy he tackled (D.J. Moore) got ejected for fighting back and will get a nice big fine. That’s fair, I guess. Read up at Pro Football Talk. 

31. New York Jets- Those trash-talking footsteps you hear are Rex Ryan’s boys charging up the standings. How high they go will be a matter for the inconsistent Mark Sanchez to determine. 

32. Buffalo Bills- My original thoughts after the Jets game were, “I think the Jets are a terrible matchup for the Bills, but that’s not too far from what the Bills really are as a team.” After the Dallas game, I’m sure that’s who they really are.

33. Oakland Raiders- Losing to Tim Tebow at home had to be embarrassing. Carson Palmer’s showings aren’t all bad despite the turnovers- his arm has looked stronger than it did in Cincinnati last year and it’s refreshing to get to see what Oakland’s track stars at WR look like with a competent QB at the helm. They’ve become a really entertaining team to watch. I’d like to see more Taiwan Jones when Darren McFadden isn’t playing, though.

34. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- They need to realize that Josh Freeman is too young to be “the guy” for them all the time. Their wide receivers have struggled. The best remedy? A heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount. I think balancing out their offense would do wonders for them offensively. When they’ve run the ball well, they’ve won games- the Saints home upset comes to mind.

35. Kansas City Chiefs- What happened to all that Arrowhead momentum against Miami and Denver? They might have sealed their fate with those losses because their schedule is not kind down the stretch.

36. Dallas Cowboys- Dez Bryant is a major distraction on the field for this team. The Cowboys would have done well to avoid that kind of personality, but Jerry Jones wanted his next Michael Irvin. Troy Aikman ain’t walking through that door, Jerry.

37. Philadelphia Eagles- Just like last year, Philly’s problem is that they can’t dink-and-dunk you down the field. It’s either a bunch of 8-20 yard runs by Vick and McCoy with a few 20-yard deep throws, or a drive that gets snuffed out. That and they’re as soft as a baby’s bottom. Smashmouth teams push them around.

38. San Diego Chargers- Some people think he’s injured, but I’m fairly (>60%) certain I’ve figured out Rivers’ problem. Though he would never admit it, I bet you $20 that the sixth Rivers child is a major reason he’s struggled. Hard to stay awake when you got a newborn screaming all night long, I imagine. His home-road splits suggest that leaving San Diego for the road hasn’t helped though. He’s posted a 104-163 attempts, 1,293 yards, 7 TD:7 INT cumulative stat line at home compared to an 89 of 142, 1,176, 4:7 road line. What gives?

39. Tennessee Titans- I wish I could say I know what’s happened to Chris Johnson. I can’t. I’m chalking to up a combination of fatigue, complacency, dislike of the current regime, and a general lack of motivation this year.

40. Carolina Panthers- In a league devoid of high-profile stars like the NBA has, the Panthers (and Cam) would do well to milk Mr. Newton’s success as an NFL as much as possible- the guy has rare charisma and charm. Designer NFL cleats would be a neat trend to start. They wouldn’t be Air Jordans, but I bet Under Armour or Reebok would do something with Cam if he proposed it.  I don’t know how well they’d sell, though.

41. Washington Redskins- Can we finally now admit that Mike Shanahan’s perceived success as an NFL head coach is directly tied to the fact that he had John Elway and Terrell Davis to kick it off? Seriously, every one of his other teams haven’t even been close to Super Bowl contenders. This one sure isn’t.

42. Minnesota Vikings- Christian Ponder has managed to cast a ray of hope on what has otherwise been a depressing year for the Vikings. As it is with everyone, how they draft over the next few years will make or break them under Leslie Frazier. Contrary to public opinion, the first place the Vikings should go in the draft is not at wide receiver to get a weapon for Ponder- it should be at offensive line. Thankfully this NFL draft has a few top-notch offensive linemen projected to be available

43. Cleveland Browns- They might be the most boring NFL team in the league. Does anyone care that they have a Top-5 defense statistically?

44. Jacksonville Jaguars- Were it not for Cleveland, they’d be the most uninspiring team to watch on TV. If they were smart, they’d let Blaine Gabbert throw it 50 times a game and see what he’s got. Their defense has been surprisingly good. They can probably afford to draft a WR early next year.

45. St. Louis Rams- I thought Steve Spagnuolo would have them on a faster track up by now. Really had high hopes for them.

46. Seattle Seahawks- They can’t run and they can’t pass. Other than that, things are looking up for the Seahawks. Doug Baldwin has been a nice find off the undrafted college free agent scrapheap. You’ve never heard of their best player, Chris Clemons, who should be a Pro Bowler this year. (Start voting, Seahawks fans.)

47. Arizona Cardinals- The Kevin Kolb trade is/was/will continue to be an abysmal failure. At least they didn’t pony up as much for him as the Raiders did for Carson Palmer.

48. Denver Broncos- Skip Bayless can rant all he wants about Tim Tebow’s “clutch gene” (the concept of which is total b.s. to begin with), but if they’re drafting Top 5 next year and Matt Barkley (2nd-best case) or Andrew Luck (wildest dreams-case) is staring them in the face, they won’t hesitate to draft him. Tebow might be the nicest guy ever and whatever else FOX’s Thom Brennaman  has to say about him, but he is a locker room cancer, as far as I am concerned. His very presence elicits such a powerful media and fan response that it is a constant threat to team chemistry and being the only guy your teammates get asked about can’t really help when you’re not winning a ton. The two Johns (Elway and Fox) need to blow up this Josh McDaniels-created mess and rebuild the franchise in their own image, just as Fox did in Carolina.

49. Miami Dolphins- If they had gone 0-16, the Dolphins would have been the best winless team in the history of the NFL. The last two teams to do so, the 1976 Bucs and 2008 Lions, were talent-deficient teams and nobody was terribly surprised that they went winless. Of course, the ’76 Bucs were an expansion team and the ’08 Lions were just plain terrible. This Miami team has way more talent than either of those teams do, but for whatever reason, they just can’t seem to play 60 minutes’ worth of good football. A huge amount of blame for this season rests not on the current goat of choice, Tony Sparano, but on the team ownership, who openly flirted with Jim Harbaugh in the offseason and in doing so, stripped Sparano of any authority he had in the locker room. Is anybody really surprised that this happened after Bill Parcells left the team’s front office?

50. Indianapolis Colts- I think Bill Polian is the most overrated personnel man in the league, bar none. You honestly cannot draft a team as poorly as they did and pin the whole blame on Peyton Manning’s injury. When you acquire specific talent for a specific purpose, (in this case, to play from ahead, assuming Manning performs like usual) it is the football equivalent of putting your eggs in one basket. They don’t deserve Andrew Luck.. Enjoy.