Sorting out the BCS Mess- the 11-12-12 edition

With the college football season of 2012 experiencing a major tide shift (seewhatididthere?) this weekend, I knew the time was ripe for a BCS-related, nay, college football-themed blog post. Presenting my 2012 State of the Union that is college football.

With the demise of Alabama already written in stone for all of history to see, as well as the removal of Louisville from the ranks of the unbeatens. We are left with four undefeated teams. Oregon, K-State, and Notre Dame all avoided the deathtrap that Alabama fell in, while the fourth, Ohio State, did not play this weekend. We'll get to the Buckeyes in a moment, but for now, I want to talk about the candidacy of the top three.

1. Kansas State

I must confess myself legitimately surprised by KSU this year. I thought they would do well, win around 9 games and go to a decent bowl game. I didn't account for the effects that leadership the caliber of Bill Snyder, Collin Klein, and MLB Arthur Brown has on football teams. I forgot what I saw in 2011, in short. What I saw in 2011 was a team that played sound, disciplined, and mostly error-free football. I saw a team that doesn't kill itself. I was flat-out wrong when I picked them for sixth in the Big XII. Definitely not proud of that. Other than the reasons I already listed, Kansas State is about as Midwestern as it gets- not flashy, not spectacular, and definitely not terribly interesting. Despite a passing offense that ranks 87th in the nation, the Wildcats are still putting up well over 40 points a game. With games against Baylor and Texas left, the road to Miami  is not without its potholes, but given the way KSU has played this year and historically under Snyder, it's hard for me to believe that they'll lose either game. With their impressive resume, they will assuredly be in the BCS Championship Game over Notre Dame, provided the Ducks can take care of their end of the bargain. Of the three undefeateds, K-State is the most balanced team and offers the best challenge to either Notre Dame or Oregon.

Key Game: at West Virginia
FULL SCREEN VERSION

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In a game that pitted the top QB's in the Big XII, K-State left no doubt as to who the consensus best team in the Big XII was, battering the Mountaineers to the tune of 55-14. This game especially sticks out because you can see just how brutally efficient KSU was in putting the Mountaineers right behind the 8-ball. The other major point that this game shows is that KSU is more than capable of handling an aggressive, no-huddle offense. (Looking at you, Oregon)

2. Oregon

Once Alabama lost, the Ducks immediately assumed the mantle of the "best team in America." They didn't disappoint, dropping a 59-spot at Cal. The win was as important as every other win in college football is, but the big revelation was the showing by Marcus Mariota who officially alleviated concerns the Ducks or their fans may have had about their ability to pass, as he dropped 377 yards and 6 TD's on the hapless Bears. This has been the best team in the history of Oregon football and their spot in the BCS title game is protected, especially if they take care of Stanford, Oregon State, and likely UCLA in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
As the flashiest, prettiest, and most "expected" of the top three BCS teams, the Ducks have the most pressure on them, but they've gotten used to it and Chip Kelly is cementing his place as one of the sharpest minds in the business. Though they've given up more than 20 points a game on defense, this is still one of the most complete teams in the country. With likely no SEC team on the horizon, Oregon's path to a BCS title as wide-open as it has ever been.

Key Game: at USC
FULL SCREEN VERSION

Animated Drive Chart brought to you by Gameday Depot. This curb-stomping was a showcase on national TV for all the world to see just how ruthless and brutally efficient the Ducks have become. While their defense remains as ugly as ever, the Oregon offense tore through USC's defense all game long. It also firmly cemented Kenjon Barner's place in the Heisman race.

3. Notre Dame

If I was legitimately surprised about K-State, color me absolutely stunned about Notre Dame. I had them pegged for a good-but-not-great 8-win season and I fully expected them to keep the Charlie Weis-inspired tradition of losing at least four times a year going. After the Irish dismantled Oklahoma (a game I saw in person), I fully bought in on the Irish as a legitimate contender, albeit with one caveat- the Irish aren't as good as KSU or Oregon. Not only will Notre Dame need to win out, they need someone to take down the Ducks and Wildcats. Of course, even if this happens, the window is still open for Notre Dame to get passed in the BCS by a one-loss Alabama or Georgia, whoever wins the SEC Championship Game.
Consider- let's pretend Kansas State loses at home to Texas on December 1, while Oregon wins out. That leaves the Ducks and Irish as #1 and #2. (We're assuming Notre Dame wins out, too.) Meanwhile, Alabama blows out Western Carolina, Auburn, and beats BCS #5 team Georgia like a drum on December 1. This leaves the voters with a choice- do they take Kansas State, who has the most good wins out of these three but just lost to Texas? Probably not? Do they take Notre Dame who beat a three- or four-loss USC team in LA but was idle on December 1? Maaaaaaaaaybe. Do they take a one-loss SEC champion like Alabama? That's where this gets interesting. Pat Dye was recently on Paul Finebaum's Alabama-based radio show talking about that very situation.

Dye on BCS Rankings,'There's a possibility that an SEC team (Bama) can jump over an undefeated Notre Dame.'
— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) November 12, 2012

Just one man's opinion, but the potential is there, however unlikely it may seem.

Key Game: at Oklahoma
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This game was the one that absolutely told me that the Irish were for real. Oklahoma had only lost four times in the last dozen years at home under Bob Stoops, their offense was rolling, and the game was in primetime. Yet the Irish went in with a redshirt freshman at QB, stifled the Oklahoma offense, and wore down the Sooners over a four-quarter beatdown. The game was closer than the score, in my opinion, but the Irish absolutely squashed the Sooners and in doing so told me and the rest of America that they were for real.

BCS Bowl Picks

So, if the BCS were picked today, who goes where? Allow me to channel my inner Brad Edwards for a moment....

BCS Championship: 1 Kansas State vs. 2 Oregon

Fiesta Bowl: 3 Notre Dame vs. 8 Texas A&M

Rose Bowl: 14 Nebraska vs. 7 LSU

Sugar Bowl: 4 Alabama vs. 12 Oklahoma

Orange Bowl: 10 Florida State vs. 19 Louisville

With the Big XII and Pac-12 champions off to Miami, the Fiesta Bowl and Rose Bowl get to pick first and second. The Fiesta Bowl takes ratings juggernaut Notre Dame first and pairs them with a hot new name, Texas A&M. The Rose Bowl gets stuck with Nebraska and is forced to take LSU from the SEC. (I am not sure if a SEC team is allowed to play in the Rose Bowl, but I think they can. I haven't been able to find any information to the contrary online.)
The Sugar Bowl can't believe its dumb luck and grabs the two biggest names available, setting up a fantastic OU-Bama matchup.
The Orange Bowl takes one for the team and sticks us all with the Seminoles against Louisville.

My Heisman 5:
1. Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
2. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
3. Collin Klein, Kansas State
4. Braxton Miller, Ohio State
5. Kenjon Barner, Oregon

The Heisman is an individual award an no one player has been better this year than Manti Te'o. Also, I am sick of the Heisman imitating the Davey O'Brien award. It's not QB-exclusive, folks. Te'o is better than any player on that list right now.

Going-Away Thought: Could Ohio State force a split National Championship?

One of the biggest "what ifs" of the 2012 season will undoubtedly be what impact, if any, an undefeated Ohio State may have had on the BCS if they were eligible for the postseason this year. If ranked in the BCS, I'd guess the Buckeyes would be ranked about 5th right now, but would have virtually no chance of leapfrogging KSU, Oregon, Notre Dame, or even 1-loss Alabama. They can thank the Big Ten for having such a miserable year and their own preseason poll slot being too low.
Now, if Ohio State wins out and beats Wisconsin and Michigan (which they likely will), they will be 12-0 and idle while the rest of the BCS mess sorts itself out.  While far from a lock, someone will likely go undefeated this year, but every other non-Ohio State team will have a loss. One would assume that whoever wins the BCS Championship Game will be the unanimous #1 team in the country, but I wonder if there's one AP voter who wouldn't give Ohio State their #1 vote this year. Only getting one vote may not seem like much, but with no team becoming the consensus national champion by unanimous decision, it's possible that Ohio State could force the issue and claim their own split national championship. They would be criticized across the nation for doing so, but AD Gene Smith and university president E. Gordon Gee haven't exactly shown themselves to be in possession of good judgment. Nice job with that whole, "we didn't expect a bowl ban this year" rhetoric guys. What might have been, indeed.

NBA Predictions for 2012

Eastern Conference

Atlantic
Boston Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers
Brooklyn Nets
New York Knicks
Toronto Raptors

Southeast
Miami Heat
Atlanta Hawks
Washington Wizards
Orlando Magic
Charlotte Bobcats

Central
Indiana Pacers
Chicago Bulls
Detroit Pistons
Milwaukee Bucks
Cleveland Cavaliers

Western Conference

Northwest
Oklahoma City Thunder
Denver Nuggets
Utah Jazz
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers

Pacific
L.A. Lakers
L.A. Clippers
Golden State Warriors
Phoenix Suns
Sacramento Kings

Southwest
San Antonio Spurs
Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas Mavericks
New Orleans Hornets
Houston Rockets

Figuring out the Yankees' Offseason Puzzle

As you have no doubt heard, the Yankees' season is over. While this is less of a surprise than my original MLB predictions would have led one to believe, this may turn out to be Pyrrhic victory for the AL. Yes, the Yankees are dead and buried for 2012, but the Tigers series surely had to inform the Yankees of their present issues- issues they will no doubt address going into Spring Training.

Who's Gone
Like a lot of teams, the Yankees have a number of players who are not going to be back. That list as of this moment is as follows:
1. Russell Martin
2. Eric Chavez
3. Raul Ibanez
4. Andruw Jones
5. Jayson Nix
6. Ichiro Suzuki
7. Chris Stewart
8. Casey McGehee
9. Freddy Garcia
10. Rafael Soriano (player option)
11. Clay Rapada
12. Derek Lowe
13. Hiroki Kuroda
14. Nick Swisher
15. Andy Pettitte

Wow. Obviously there are a few big names on here- of these, I expect Jones, Chavez, McGehee, Stewart, Garcia, Soriano, Rapada, Lowe, and Swisher to be near-locks to leave the Bronx for greener pastures after the season. That's mostly well-and-good for the Yankees. They might have some big names, but most of these guys are easily replaceable players.
The interesting cases in here are Soriano, Kuroda, Ichiro, and Pettitte. Soriano has an opt-out clause that he will most likely use in an attempt to find bigger dollars somewhere else. Kuroda, Pettitte, and Ichiro all had one-year deals. Pettitte has indicated a desire to return again, and the Yankees would be foolish not to take him up on that offer. Kuroda is an interesting topic- he was the Yankees' most consistent pitcher all season and had a fine year and even better postseason. If the Yankees can bring him back at a similar rate for another year, they should try that. There's always the odd chance he'd leave, but I expect the Yankees to put the full-court press on to bring him back. If they can bring Pettitte along for the ride, the Yankees' rotation will again be one of baseball's best. (If this scenario occurs, expect a rotation of CC Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, and 2012 injury casualty Michael Pineda.)

(I'll get to Ichiro in a bit.)

Three names weren't on the above list that need to be brought up, as their roster spots aren't locks. The first and most-discussed will be Alex Rodriguez. After yet another atrocious and embarrassing postseason for the former MVP third baseman, the Yankees would be well-served to seek possible alternatives to him in the offseason. If they feel the need to unload A-Rod's behemoth of a contract ($28M a year for the next five years), they will do so only by eating a substantial chunk of the contract- around 80-90% of the remaining salary and finding a willing trade partner. If I were Brian Cashman (and today I am thankful I am not), I'd seek every possible opportunity to dump A-Rod on another team.
The second name not mentioned but whose spot in the Yankees' roster is potentially up for grabs is Curtis Granderson, who had a postseason that could only be described as a left-handed version of Alex Rodriguez's. Granderson has been a solid player for the Yankees since they acquired him from the Tigers a few years ago, but it's hard not to think he's peaked as a hitter and ballplayer. I'd put the chances of Granderson not returning at around 40%.
Lastly, the only question not being mentioned on a national scale is the Mariano Rivera question- will he come back? If so, how effective will he be? For the record, Mo has indicated that he intends to return to the Yankees next spring.

The Replacements
Considering all the offensive productivity the Yankees would need to replace under the above scenario and the Steinbrenner's professed intent to get payroll to $189M while simultaneously competing for the World Series every year, this will be one of the most difficult and challenging offseasons of Cashman's career. He will need to find players to fill in at two of the Yankees' outfield positions, third base, catcher, and find another couple of good bullpen arms to supplement Rivera and David Robertson. Also, he'd need to retool the Yankees' bench. Going under this scenario, here's how the Yankees' 25-man lineup and pitching staff in 2013 projects

C ???
1B Mark Teixeira
2B Robinson Cano (expect the Yankees to exercise their option on him)
3B ???
SS Derek Jeter
LF Brett Gardner
CF ???
RF ???
DH ???

Bench
Raul Ibanez (expecting him back after his postseason)
Eduardo Nunez

Rotation
Starters:
CC Sabathia
Hiroki Kuroda
Andy Pettitte
Phil Hughes
Ivan Nova
Michael Pineda

Bullpen:
Mariano Rivera
David Robertson
Boone Logan
Joba Chamberlain

I expect the Yankees to carry 14 position players and 11 pitchers. Considering that 10 of the 11 pitching spots aren't open, I'll let that sort itself out. Most likely, an in-house candidate like Pedro Feliciano or David Aardsma will present himself as a worthy addition to the bullpen, as will the odd man out of the rotation, whether it's Hughes, Nova, or Pineda.

The lineup is another question entirely. If the Yankees follow my plan, they will be looking at trying to fill holes at four positions and designated hitter, plus three other bench spots for a whopping total of eight open positions. The smart money may be on the Yankees to bring back Granderson, but it's a move I thoroughly disagree with. Much of 2012 and especially October should have proven to the Yankees how badly a home run dependent offense becomes when it is forced to deal with elite pitching. Knowing this and that Granderson isn't good enough at getting on base to utilize his above average speed to manufacture runs, why bring him back? They'd be better off building around a couple of sluggers (Teixeira and Cano) while emphasizing their speed with Gardner. This is where Ichiro steps in. He had a fine second half with the club and hit somewhat well in the playoffs (comparatively speaking). His veteran presence in a locker room that might be a lot younger next year will be important, as will his still-reliable bat and decent speed. Pair him with a healthy Gardner and the Yankees' outfield would combine for over 70 stolen bases, easily. With Ichiro back on a short deal (that's the key to this), the Yankees would be left trying to fill third base, catcher, and centerfield.
The hottest name on the market, and one who also fits the Yankees' needs for power in the outfield while being a more well-rounded play is of course Josh Hamilton. The only way he comes to New York is if the Yankees can get him a fair price ($18-21M) and for an appropriate number of years (anywhere from two to four). Hamilton is likely to want at least a nine-figure contract, which would likely price him out of the Yankees' plans. It's hard to imagine how devastating Hamilton would be in Yankee Stadium for 81 games a year. It's also equally hard to figure out how he'd handle his off-field demons in a city like New York. It makes for a fascinating risk-reward discussion.
If the Yankees don't like the price of Hamilton, they could turn their attention to players like B.J. Upton and Shane Victorino, both of whom don't carry the demons that Hamilton has and also would balance out New York's lefty-heavy lineup with their right-handed bats. Upton will be 28 next year, but the addition of an outfielder capable of 20 homers, 40 steals, and above average defense at a rate cheaper than Hamilton would be well worth looking into. Hamilton would be better earlier in his deal than Upton, but Upton holds more long-term value and less baggage, making him the smarter add. The Yankees could pursue a trade, but given their farm system's lack of depth, pulling off a blockbuster might cost too much in terms of player capital. They'd be better served proceeding with a free agent, who would only cost the Yankees money.
With their outfield filled, the Yankees would be left to resolve their issues at third base and catcher. With Martin most likely out of the picture, the Yankees could go internal with their top catching prospect, Austin Romine. Asking a young catcher to handle a pitching staff with as many veterans as the Yankees' would be a cause for concern, but he'd also be cheaper and by most accounts, is basically a finished project as a minor leaguer.
With every position except third base filled, the Yankees would have to focus their attention there. The Yankees could opt for a platoon, as they did early in 2009 when A-Rod had hip surgery and was unavailable for the first weeks of the season. This time around, the Yankees would have no prospect of A-Rod, so they'd have to find guys they could play there all year. After looking at the free agent options, one name sticks out to me as a nice fit- Kevin Youkilis. While not the same player he once was, Youk's right handed bat, still-decent batting eye, and ability to play either corner infield position would give the Yankees versatility and the ability to rest Teixeira more often in 2013. With the White Sox unlikely to pick up a $13M option on a 33-year old third baseman like Youkilis, the odds are good that Youkilis might have a chance to end up in the Bronx. (I'd even bet he'd love the chance to stick it to the Red Sox 18 times a year.)

After all that, where does that leave the Yankees' lineup? Let's take a look.

SS Derek Jeter (R)
CF B.J. Upton (R)
2B Cano (L)
1B Teixeira (S)
3B Youkilis (R)
DH Ibanez (L)
RF Ichiro (L)
C Austin Romine (R)
LF Brett Gardner (L)

It's a little short on power, but what the Yankees would lack in home run ability, they'd make up for with defense, run creation and pitching. It's also hard to figure out where to place Upton and Ichiro in the order. Knowing that Cashman will supplement the bench with three more useful players after Nunez and that he would add one or two more pitchers for their bullpen, it would appear the Yankees would be on their way to an offense better suited to October baseball.

Weighing the Legitimacy of the BCS Contenders

To start off today's post, I must first issue an apology for my lengthy delay between posts. My weekends have been rather busy, which interrupts my football viewing. However, it's not all bad news- on October 27, I will be coming to you live from Norman, Oklahoma, where I will take in the highly anticipated Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma game (and more than a few steaks, ribs, and fried chicken sandwiches).
Back to business. Today's post will weigh the pros, cons, and x-factors for each of the Top 5 BCS teams, plus the other half-dozen teams with legitimate chances at winning the national championship. The current BCS top 5 is Alabama, Florida, Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame.
Let's start with the Crimson Tide.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0)
BCS Average: .9761

To no one's surprise, the Tide rolled in at the top of the inaugural 2012 BCS standings. Despite a somewhat pedestrian schedule, this is where they belong. After starting the year with a dominant win over Michigan in the Kickoff Classic in Cowboys Stadium, Alabama proceeded to annihilate their next five opponents by an aggregate score of 202-31. Even after the departures Alabama suffered last summer, the Tide has ridden their dominant offensive line and newly improved QB A.J. McCarron to their usual lofty heights. It's gotten to the point with McCarron that I think it's fair to say he's the best quarterback Nick Saban has ever coached in college. His development, coupled with the usual impressive Saban defense and special teams has kept the Tide in college football's pole position. They don't get style points for their workmanlike method of winning games, but they get the job done. It does need to be noted that after the Michigan win, none of those wins came against currently-ranked teams, but the luxury of playing in the SEC guarantees Alabama a chance to gain their fair share of impressive wins. Alabama's upcoming schedule features dates with Mississippi State, LSU, and Texas A&M, plus their SEC Championship game opponent, provided they sidestep each of those landmines. With the SEC East so improved, it won't matter who Alabama plays in the SEC Championship provided it's one of Florida, South Carolina or Georgia.

Future prognosis: As an undefeated, they control their destiny and their .700 point edge in the BCS standings over 2nd-place Florida gives them a degree of wiggle room. I fully expect to see the Crimson Tide in Miami in January.
2nd Half X-factor: Amari Cooper, WR - I've given some love to A.J. McCarron but for him to continue his strong season, he'll need contributions from Cooper, who has stepped up nicely while Alabama dealt with injuries on offense. It's weird to be even having this discussion, but some are still debating what Alabama's offensive identity is. Even with McCarron playing so well, they're still a smashmouth team, but they'll need contributions from the receiving corps.

2. Florida Gators (6-0)
BCS Average: .9092

I have to give it up to Phil Steele- he nailed the Gators in his preseason preview magazine. The Gators once again sit atop the SEC East despite the hellish mess the Gators had at quarterback in July. Since then, the situation has resolved itself as Jeff Driskell took the reigns and ran with them. His play, coupled with the arrival of Mike Gillislee as a legitimate All-SEC caliber running back has turned the toothless Gators offense of 2011 into a mean, rugged offense hell-bent on beating the piss out of their opponents. As for the Gators defense, no one is surprised that a unit compromised of the leftovers of Urban Meyer's last binge of 4- and 5-star recruits has morphed in LSU East under Will Muschamp. Add the two up and you have one stupid blogger who picked the Gators to win 8 games.
The best news that Gators fans could hear is that they're done travelling this year. That's right- the Gators don't have a single game outside the state of Florida. The schedule is even harder than Alabama's- after a home date with the Ol' Ball Coach, the Gators get to play Georgia. Their last game is their annual tilt with Florida State- a game that won't matter in the SEC but could decide who ends up in the 2nd or 3rd place in the final BCS standings.

Future Prognosis: Just like Alabama, Florida controls its destiny. However, their schedule is devastating. I expect at least two losses by the end of the year for Florida- one courtesy of their SEC brethren (good luck figuring out who) and another from either FSU or their SEC championship game opponent.
2nd Half X-factor: Andre Debose, WR/KR - Yes, it seems like Debose has been in Gainesville since 2005, but he's still there. With Florida's passing game still a work in progress, they need another wideout to step up. Debose has the speed and quickness to make plays, and they'll need him even more down the stretch.

3. Oregon Ducks (6-0)
BCS Average: .8993

No, that loud noise you heard on Saturday wasn't a tanker full of SEC Kool-Aid driving through a flock of ducks- it was Duck fans everywhere spluttering in disbelief as they saw Oregon slide into the BCS at #3, easily the biggest surprise of these first rankings. Oregon has been exactly what we expected this year- great on offense and improved on defense. Despite this, the Ducks came in at third thanks to a schedule even more pitiful than Alabama's. They have made mincemeat of that schedule, to be sure, but their schedule is about to get a lot more difficult. 

Future Prognosis: I hate to keep repeating myself, but the Ducks control their own destiny. Two games with USC won't be fun or easy for the Ducks, even with USC's offensive line struggles and less-than-imposing defensive front seven.

2nd Half X-factor: Marcus Mariota, QB -  It has to be Mariota, right? He's never been tested on the road, so it's anybody's guess how he reacts during Oregon's upcoming road schedule, especially at USC.

4. Kansas State Wildcats (6-0)
BCS Average: .8963

The Wildcats are the rare Big XII team that still plays defense, a testament to the genius that is head coach Bill Snyder's calling card. I know that Nick Saban is considered the consensus best coach in college football, but give me Snyder. Saban has won big at LSU and Alabama....not exactly Manhattan, Kansas. I love people who can make chicken salad out of chicken shit and that's exactly what Snyder has done throughout both of his tenures at KSU. Lots of folks, yours truly included, had the Wildcats pegged for a regression after the 2011 season featured a plethora of close wins. That hasn't turned out to be the case, as the KSU gravy train has kept rolling for Collin Klein and co. Just like the other three teams ranked ahead of them, the schedule is about to get a lot more difficult. It's worth noting that KSU got their toughest game out of the way early, winning at Oklahoma. 

Future Prognosis: Kansas State controls their own destiny to a degree, but unlike Alabama and LSU, they can't afford a loss. Also, they don't have a conference championship game to pad their resumes with, either. KSU will be walking the straight-and-narrow for the rest of the year. 

2nd Half X-factor: Nigel Malone, CB - Malone was one of the Big XII's best corners last year but his production has dropped off a little bit in 2012. Considering that KSU's future schedule includes dates with the passing offenses of West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor in the NEXT FIVE weeks, the Wildcats will need him to step up in a big way to stay alive in the BCS hunt.

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-0)
BCS Average: .8774

As the runaway winner of the award for "most hyped" story of the 2012 college football season, the Irish are back....or are they? I confess myself surprised at Notre Dame's resurgence this year. Coach Brian Kelly deserves a lot of credit for adapting his offense from the pass-heavy spread he ran at Cincinnati into a power rushing attack. Even more impressive is that he's managed to do so while juggling a freshman at QB with Tommy Rees. It's the weirdest QB committee I've ever seen- Everett Golson usually starts, but Kelly has no qualms about throwing Rees in if Golson has any issues at all. Making it even weirder is the efficiency of Rees when he has come in. This is not your older brother's QB combo (like the 2007 LSU duo of Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux), but it has been effective. 

Speaking of effective, no 2012 Notre Dame discussion would be complete without a mention of their SEC-worthy defense. LB Manti Te'o has been a force and will run away with a lot of postseason hardware. The Irish defensive line has been dominant, with defensive linemen Stephon Tuitt, Kapron Lewis-Moore and Louis Nix occupying blockers and freeing up ND's linebackers to make plays.

Future Prognosis: Not great. Despite the fact that Notre Dame has four winnable games left on its schedule, it must also travel to Oklahoma and USC for games against the only two teams on its schedule that can challenge their secondary, which has been the weakest part of an otherwise stingy defense. Going 1-1 on the road against OU and USC would be hard for Alabama, let alone a team playing QB roulette. Even so, finishing 4-2 will put the Irish in the BCS.

2nd Half X-factor: The secondary - If the Irish are to get by their final two landmines, they will need massive contributions from their secondary to slow down Oklahoma's and USC's bevies of talented wideouts. Both teams run 4-deep at WR, so the Irish will need a comprehensive effort from their defensive backfields to pull off both games. 

2012 NFL Preview

I'm not going to say much more than I did in my AFC and NFC pre-training camp previews. As usual, the trend has been to identify the three teams from each conference that won't make the playoffs next year. Frankly, I have a hard time seeing six teams missing the playoffs from last year's group, but that's one of the NFL's trademarks- surprise teams. In July, I predicted that the Bengals and Broncos wouldn't make the playoffs from the AFC and the Lions, Giants, and Saints would miss from the NFC. I'm not going amend that list too much- I still don't believe that the Bengals, Lions or Saints will make the playoffs. There are too many factors working against them to make the playoffs.
The Bengals are a classic case of a young team that enjoys success early and regresses in year two under the weight of expectations. The Lions are too immature and only made the playoffs in 2011 because Jay Cutler and Matt Forte got hurt. The Saints of course are dealing with a never-ending amount of distractions and have had way too much bad karma surrounding them. The NFL is all about leadership and a team that will go through three different head coaches in a calendar year will probably have consistency issues. Make no mistake, Drew Brees is great, but even he won't be able to save this team.
As for the Broncos and Giants, I began to reexamine them in light of what I saw in the preseason, namely Peyton Manning and the Cowboys' offensive line problems and health issues. The Peyton Manning effect goes without saying. It's obvious he's going to have a positive effect on the Broncos, even with his reduced physical gifts limiting what throws he can and cannot make. As for the Giants, I didn't see enough from the Cowboys to suggest to me that they are a playoff team this year. Their offensive line after Tyron Smith is horrible. Their wide receivers aren't healthy. Jason Witten has spleen problems. Miles Austin's hamstring is giving him problems again, and Dez Byrant is Dez Bryant. Dallas' defensive backfield might be better than it was in 2011, but that won't be enough.
Without further ado, my official 2012 NFL predictions.

Standings

AFC East
1. New England
2. Buffalo
3. New York Jets
4. Miami

New England, the clear class of the division, rides a pathetic schedule to the AFC's top playoff seed.
Buffalo enjoys a resurgent season, riding the new and improved pass rush to a near-playoff bid, setting the stage for a Super Bowl dark horse campaign in 2013.
The Jets crash and burn as their already pathetic passing offense suffers the effects of world-class javelin thrower Tim Tebow. Defenses stack the box with eight guys and dare Santonio Holmes to beat double coverage on every play.
Miami goes as Ryan Tannehill goes. Which means a lot of lows and some occasional highs.

AFC North
1. Baltimore
2. Pittsburgh
3. Cincinnati
4. Cleveland

Baltimore, a catch away from the Super Bowl, enters into "eff you" mode for the season, but is kept out of the AFC's top spot by their schedule and a couple of division losses.
The Steelers enjoy something of a renaissance year. Seeing the window closing on their Super Bowl chances, Ben Roethlisberger wills the Steelers to a wild-card birth and an upset of the Texans in the first round.
Cincinnati sputters to a "disappointing" 7-9 season, mostly the result of Andy Dalton's sophomore slump and a vicious second-half schedule.
Cleveland enjoys a few nice runs by Trent Richardson and a breakthrough year by Greg Little, hampered by their abysmal QB play yet again.

AFC South
1. Houston
2. Tennessee
3. Indianapolis
4. Jacksonville

Houston pounds the division into submission behind their rushing attack and the return of Matt Schaub. The defense doesn't miss Mario Williams, but their offensive line misses Eric Winston, forcing the Texans into another wild-card playoff game appearance.
Tennessee plays quarterback roulette with Jake Locker and Matt Hasselbeck. Coach Mike Munchak pulls Locker at halftime of their Week 6 game versus Pittsburgh and Hasselbeck leads the Titans to a comeback win. They enjoy a solid second half as Hasselbeck turns their under-appreciated receiving corps into one of the NFL's finest by week 12, but fall short of the playoffs due to their slow start.
Indianapolis enjoys a comeback season, as Andrew Luck proves that he is in fact the real deal, as he throws for over 4,000 yards and leads the Colts to a late-season upset win over Houston, keeping the Texans out of a bye week in the playoffs.
Maurice Jones-Drew struggles, but Blaine Gabbert improves thanks to the arrivals of Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson. Even so, it's not enough, and the Jags limp to the finish line in another disappointing season. Relocation discussion becomes serious in February, as fan interest wanes and Roger Goodell has a mini aneurysm at the thought of one of his league's teams not being a financial juggernaut.

AFC West
1. San Diego
2. Denver
3. Kansas City
4. Oakland

No Vincent Jackson, no problem. Philip Rivers has had good years with sub-standard wide receiver before. Embarrassed by his dismal performance in 2011, Rivers dominates his new AFC West rival Peyton Manning, and the Chargers coast to the division crown.
Everyone talks about Peyton Manning and ignores the fact that the Broncos' defense has only three above-average players. It turns out to be their Achilles' heel, and it costs them in a costly Week 17 loss in Kansas City to the Chiefs, who are breathing down their necks by this point.
Kansas City welcomes back Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry, only to find that the rest of the division has improved right along with them. Matt Cassel struggles and gets replaced by Ricky Stanzi in the 2nd half of the season.
The Raiders run Darren McFadden into the ground. He has over 1,200 yards rushing in their first ten games, but tears a hamstring in a blowout loss to the Ravens. This time, the Raiders can't bring Michael Bush off the bench to replace him and instead have to rely on Carson Palmer to win games by himself, a skill he doesn't have anymore.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia
2. New York Giants
3. Dallas
4. Washington

After a horrible 2011, the Eagles come out on top in the NFC East, riding what figures to be Mike Vick's last semi-healthy year in the NFL.
The Giants struggle with the Eagles, but beat the crap out of everyone else in the division. Eli Manning doesn't come close to 5,000 yards again as rookie RB David Wilson steals the show and gives the G-men some balance on offense.
How long does Tony Romo last? Is there an over/under in Vegas on the number of healthy games Romo plays this year? (Take the under, always.) That offensive line is awful.
Robert Griffin arrives to bring some hope to Washington, but also proves along the way that Cam Newton comparisons are unfair, as he fails to top the 6 wins, 4,000 passing yards, or 14 rushing TDs Cam had in 2011.

NFC North
1. Chicago
2. Green Bay
3. Detroit
4. Minnesota

Realizing this is one of the last good years Brian Urlacher has left, the Bears play their butts off all year. New offensive coordinator Mike Tice does what Mike Martz never did, and keeps Jay Cutler healthy, upright and confident all year. Brandon Marshall terrorizes NFC North secondaries all year, and he single-handedly beats the Packers in their week 15 game in Chicago.
Green Bay's lack of offensive balance, weak left side of their offensive line prove, and lack of pass rush come back to bite them again in 2012, except much earlier than it did in 2011. Rodgers' numbers slightly come down and Cheeseheads everywhere wonder what happened to Clay Matthews as he rides another year of constant double teams to a second straight year with fewer than 10 sacks.
The Lions' offense falls victim to the Madden curse, as Calvin Johnson's early-career back problems resurface, slowing down Matthew Stafford and company. Ndamukong Suh gets a 4-game suspension when he tries to rip Alex Smith's head off in the Lions week 2 game at San Francisco...better known as "Handshake Bowl II."
Minnesotans enjoy a mixed bag of emotions in 2012. Christian Ponder noticeably improves, but Adrian Peterson slows down considerably, causing many to wonder just how they should feel about the Vikings. Should they be happy if their QB improves but their best offensive player regresses substantially.

NFC South
1. Atlanta
2. Carolina
3. New Orleans
4. Tampa Bay

Atlanta takes advantage of the problems in New Orleans and wins the division for the second time in three years. Even so, the Falcons get bounced in the first round of the playoffs....again.
Cam Newton shows that 2011 was no fluke, as his improved passing and constant rushing threat make the Panthers into one of the NFL's most feared offenses in 2012. Offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski gets multiple head coaching offers in the offseason. Carolina's record improves for a second straight year, but not enough to get into the playoffs.
Like I said earlier, the bad karma in New Orleans hampers the Saints' chances in 2011. More tangibly, their woeful defense hampers them.
Tampa Bay improves, but not in the wins department.

NFC West 
1. San Francisco
2. Seattle
3. St. Louis
4. Arizona

The 49ers regress a little, but Jim Harbaugh keeps the good times rolling as they win the division again. Harbaugh sends thank-you notes to Pete Carroll and Ken Whisenhunt for rendering the 49ers' two biggest threats toothless, thanks to boneheaded QB decisions.
Despite the buzz surrounding the emergence of Russell Wilson, Seattle is still miles behind the 49ers, talent-wise.
A team that could surprise, the Rams will likely knock off one or two teams they shouldn't. Jeff Fisher will prove to be a good hire as the year goes along in St. Louis.
Nothing to see here folks. Despite having two of the NFL's most physically gifted players in Larry Fitzgerald and Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals didn't have the staying power to stay atop the division, even after their playoff runs from three years ago. That might be a boost to Kurt Warner's HoF chances.

Playoff Predictions

AFC
Wild Card Round
6 Pittsburgh over 3 Houston
4 San Diego over 5 Denver

Divisional Round
1 New England over 6 Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore over 4 San Diego

AFC Championship Game
New England over Baltimore

NFC
Wild Card Round
3 Philadelphia over 6 New York
5 Green Bay over 4 Atlanta
Divisional Round
1 Chicago over 3 Philadelphia
2 San Francisco over 5 Green Bay

NFC Championship Game
San Francisco over Chicago

Super Bowl XLVII

San Francisco over New England

What We Learned, Week 1

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt

1. South Carolina is a fragile team. I like their defense, especially that defensive line. But they are so dependent on the read option running game with Connor Shaw and Marcus Lattimore that they will be dead ducks if Shaw goes down. Glad to see Lattimore looks like he's healthy after ACL surgery. He made some moves that looked like the Lattimore of old. Good for him.

2. Vandy still has work to do. I was impressed that Jordan Rodgers looked as comfortable as he did, because 2011 was a bit of a struggle for him. I doubt that he has the same talent that his older brother (some guy named Aaron) does or that he'll be a NFL QB, but he can be useful for the Commodores. Plus, their backfield is loaded. Zac Stacy looked really good and they still have Warren Norman and highly-touted freshman Brian Kimbrow in the backfield. 

Boise State vs. Michigan State

1. Is it too early to put Le'Veon Bell in the Heisman discussion? He might not be as talented as some other college runners like Montee Ball or Marcus Lattimore, but if he gets 40 carries a game, he will blow by those guys' numbers easily. He reminds me of a hybrid of Eddie George and Ron Dayne, the first two guys I think of when I think of Big Ten workhorse running backs.

2. I'd give Andrew Maxwell a game grade of "E" for "EWWWWWWWWWWWWW." If Sparty wants to go the Rose Bowl, they'll need a lot better effort than that from him.

3. Like Rod Gilmore of ESPN said after the game, you can cross the Broncos off the BCS Buster list. The best team they play for the rest of the year is BYU. Though the Cougars looked good during a thrashing of Washington State, one win against BYU probably won't be enough to push the Broncos to the top of the polls this year. To their credit, the Broncos showed up and out-played Michigan State for most of the game. Chris Petersen is a boss and a legitimate top-3 coach in all of college football. He's right up there with Nick Saban. 

SJSU vs. Stanford

1. This version of the Cardinal will play like their teams of the past couple years, but they aren't nearly as good. That's obvious, but I was one of the few who didn't think they wouldn't miss a step. It's hard for me to figure out how SJSU stuck around with Stanford. 

Notre Dame vs. Navy

1. This is Notre Dame's deepest backfield they've had in quite some time. Even though starter Cierre Wood was left home for a violation of team rules, the Fighting Irish still managed to ring up 293 yards rushing and 50 points on Navy. A great deal of credit obviously should go to the Irish offensive line, who punished Navy's small defensive front all game long. Theo Riddick looks much more comfortable as a RB than he ever did as a WR. It'll be interesting to see how they divvy up the carries when Wood returns. Also, kudos to Brian Kelly for not being pigheaded when it came to his preferred spread attack. He knows Notre Dame's best offensive units are their RBs, offensive line, and tight end. He realizes that ND probably doesn't have an impact QB, so he did what the Irish are good at. Gives them a glimmer of hope that they might be able to exploit better teams on their schedule like Oklahoma and USC by punishing them on the ground. They will need a lot of growth from Everett Golson. I wasn't thrilled with his performance today. Some good, some bad. A conservative, vanilla game plan for him, though. If ND has intentions of beating Oklahoma and USC, among others, they will need a lot more from Golson.

2. New Navy QB Trey Miller is a stronger passer than the Midshipmen are used to having. Like Gary Danielson said, he'll learn the option in time. It takes time to master the option. But it's good news for Navy that they have a weapon at QB and that they can threaten teams with the passing game.

Marshall vs. West Virginia

1. West Virginia's offense is really good. As in really, really, really good. As in "might be better than the 2008 Oklahoma Sooners offense" good. They picked up right where they left off in the Orange Bowl, ringing up 69 points, 341 yards passing and weirdly, 314 yards rushing. The main criticism, if any, of Dana Holgorsen's offense has been its over-reliance on the passing game. If the Mountaineers have that kind of balance all year long, you can safely pencil them in for an all-time great offensive season. Geno Smith, consider yourself officially in the top three of Heisman candidates. Any QB who goes 33 of 37 for 340 yards and 4 TD's and backs that up with another 65 yards rushing on 8 carries and another score deserves serious consideration. I don't care if it's week 1. That's seriously high-end performance.

Miami (Oh.) vs. Ohio State

1. What a difference a year makes. Although the caliber of competition wasn't all that spectacular, game one of the Urban Meyer era at Ohio State couldn't have gone any better. Despite a sluggish first quarter, a 35-0 run engineered by Braxton Miller (207 yards, 2 TD's, 0 INT's, 161 yards rushing and a TD) paved the way for an easy Ohio State win. The secondary made a couple of costly errors and figures to be a work in progress for the duration of the season.

2. Miami is nothing special as a football team, but Nick Harwell absolutely deserves your respect and a measure of attention. He's a legitimate future NFL wide receiver.

Ohio vs. Penn State

1. In what will likely go down as the most memorable game of the day, the first surprise of the season went down as Frank Solich's crew won a big game, paving the way for them to possibly run the table all the way to the BCS. Don't believe me? Look at their schedule. It's possible. 

2. Right after the game ended, the ESPN cameras focused on Bill O'Brien and he had a look on his face of total dejection. You really had to feel for the guy, especially when Tom Rinaldi is right in his business right after the game asking him dumb reporter questions. I'm getting really sick of ESPN's obsessive reporting. It seems all they want to do is find one story per sport and assign a reporter to basically stalk someone for the rest for a while. Whether it's Tim Tebow, Jeremy Lin, or this Penn State fiasco, I'm sick of it. They should have spoken to the winning team and left O'Brien to handle his business and speak to his team. Shame on the worldwide leader. 

More WWL coming up after the afternoon and evening games conclude.

2012 Big XII Preview

1. Oklahoma (11-1)

2. Texas (11-1)

3. Oklahoma State (10-2)

4. West Virginia (9-3)

5. TCU (9-3)

6. Kansas State (8-4)

7. Baylor (5-7)

8. Texas Tech (5-7)

9. Iowa State (3-9)

10. Kansas (3-9)

1. Oklahoma had an interesting season in 2011, to put it mildly. What started out as a National Championship chase quickly devolved into a disappointing 3-loss season, highlighted by a home loss to Texas Tech and a blowout in the Bedlam Game authored by in-state rival Oklahoma State. Toss in the loss of Ryan Broyles turning Landry Jones into Tim Tebow and many Sooner fans were left wondering just what the hell happened in 2011. 2012 is chock-full of promise for OU. That’s not to say that there aren’t sore spots. The offseason has been anything but “off” in Norman. The Sooners lost two projected starting offensive linemen when All-Big XII C Ben Habern was forced to “retire” after neck surgery and starting RG Tyler Evans tore his ACL shortly thereafter, crippling OU’s offensive line depth. This all came after coach Bob Stoops gave the boot to starting WR Kameel Jackson. Yes, turmoil has been the name of the game in the offseason for Oklahoma. No team, except maybe Penn State will be happier to be back on the field on opening day. On paper, Oklahoma looks like a legitimate National Title threat even with the loss of those players. Jones is back and hopefully over the disaster that was his 2nd half of 2011, as is RB Dominique Whaley, who gave the Sooners’ running game a big boost in 2011 before getting injured. The defense figures to improve under the coaching of new defensive coordinator Mike Stoops, who rejoins his brother after a stop in Tucson. After the question marks on offense, the Sooners’ other major concern has to be their schedule. It’s backloaded, starting with a home date vs. Notre Dame and concluding with road games at West Virginia and TCU sandwiching their rivalry game against Oklahoma State.

Pick a QB, any QB

2. 2012 figures to be a landmark year for the Texas program. The struggles Mack Brown and Co. have had to face on the field since Colt McCoy led the Horns to the National Championship in 2009 has created an uneasy feeling around the program, which has in turn led to restless fans getting a bit more impatient with the program. The heat is definitely on Texas in 2012. Luckily for Texas, the Horns’ defense is one of the very best in the nation, featuring two studly defensive ends in Jackson Jeffcoat and Alex Okafor, along with a solid secondary featuring safety Kenny Vacarro as its anchor. For the 3rd straight year in Austin, the onus is on the QB position. Is David  Ash to guy? Is it Case McCoy? That’s the key for Texas, especially since their skill positions and offensive line are well-regarded. LSU might have a deeper set of RBs, but pound-for-pound, the RB corps in Texas is absolutely disgusting. Each of their top three tailbacks would be starters at nearly every other DI program, except maybe Wisconsin and Oregon. Malcolm Brown figures to be the starter, but expect a healthy dose of bruiser Joe Bergeron and electrifying freshman Jonathan Gray, one of the most accomplished RBs in the history of Texas high school football.

He's a man, he's 40, and he still doesn't get any respect

3. It’s not often that a team that rips through the Big XII, obliterates Texas and Oklahoma along the way, goes 12-1, and wins a BCS bowl gets no respect heading into the next season. Yet that’s exactly where the Pokes find themselves in 2012. Of course, it’s also not often that a team has to replace a first-round draft pick at QB and WR who just happened to be 2 of the school’s greatest ever at the position. Regardless, the track record is still there for Mike Gundy’s team. Even better, Oklahoma State returns its top 3 rushers from last year. Even so, with a freshman scheduled to start at QB, a regression at the position is to be expected. Overall, Oklahoma State only returns 4 starters on offense, but that’s Gundy’s forte. I expect him and OC Todd Monken to have the Pokes rolling on offense by the end of the season. Defensively, the Pokes won’t be confused with Alabama or LSU, but they were opportunistic and plenty good enough to slow down the other team enough for the Cowboys to win 12 games. With 8 starters back, that unit should remain stable and improve with another year of experience. Oklahoma State has earned the benefit of the doubt and I will call for a surprise 10-win season from them again.

For old time's sake:

4. West Virginia joins TCU in a move from a “lesser” conference to the big-time, as the Mountaineers left the comfortable confines of the Big East for the mighty Big XII. While it’s great that the Mountaineers figure to have the conference’s best offense (or very close to it), they still have to face the fact that their defense will be severely tested. That’s not a huge problem in the woeful Big East and it won’t be too much of a problem in the Big XII, since defense has been optional in the conference since Oklahoma shifted to its current hurry-up style five or six years ago. Still, Big XII offenses are on a completely different level than the Big East’s style and skill levels. I expect a sizable regression across the board for the Mountaineers’ defense, especially with their top two DE’s gone. While many regard this transition as a hand-in-glove fit because of Dana Holgorsen’s familiarity with the Big XII from his days at Oklahoma State, the reality is that there will likely be an adjustment period for West Virginia. Road games to Oklahoma State and Texas will be difficult and the mid-season gauntlet of Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma will make-or-break this team’s season.

5. Although I picked West Virginia to finish higher this year, I expect TCU to be the better team over the next decade in the Big XII, so long as Gary Patterson remains as their head coach. TCU’s unique style of defense will keep the Horned Frogs competitive and their offense, underrated during Patterson’s tenure because of that defense, will be more than enough to hang with the Big XII’s juggernauts. As for 2012, it looks like a bit of a retooling job, as the Frogs must replace half of their starters from last year, including three offensive linemen. Patterson has historically done a good job of filling holes through player development, but the jump from the Mountain West to the Big XII is a steep one. There will be growing pains for the Horned Frogs. Even more troubling is the schedule. Though TCU has an excellent shot at bowl eligibility thanks to an easy seven-game stretch to open the season, the schedule is terribly back-loaded. TCU’s final five games in order are at Oklahoma State, at West Virginia, home against Kansas State, at Texas, and the season finale at home versus Oklahoma ouch. I hope QB Casey Pachall has been eating his Wheaties this offseason.

6. Kansas State was one of the feel-good stories of the college football season. They were also one of the most entertaining, as Bill Snyder enjoyed one of his finest seasons during his time in Manhattan. The Wildcats were fun on offense and played in a ton of close games, winning most of them. Unfortunately, they got left out in the cold when it came time for BCS Bowl bids, but overall, it was a fine season. Much like 2011, the expectations aren’t as high going into the season. Though K-State brings back 14 starters, including Heisman candidate Collin Klein, there are a couple factors pointing against them in 2012. The most glaring one is of course the fact that they won no fewer than 8 close games in 2011. It’s a little unreasonable to expect the Wildcats to repeat that kind of success in 2012, so expect a couple extra losses tacked on to this year’s record. Secondly, the offensive line has three new starters. It’s great that most of Kansas State’s primary skill position players are back, but the offensive line remains a question mark for now. Even though Kansas State returns 14 starters, including their best players on offense (Klein) and defense (LB Arthur Brown), I expect a regression in 2012.

7. 2011 was a year for the record books in Baylor, as the team enjoyed what will probably go down as the single-greatest season in school history. The Bears won 10 games, featured the Heisman Trophy winner at QB, and beat Oklahoma for the first time, ever. Much like Oklahoma State, the 2012 edition of their team has some major holes to fill. Robert Griffin is gone, as is top Big XII rusher Terrence Ganaway and top WR Kendall Wright. It’s difficult to put a number on just how many games the Bears ought to lose with those three players gone. Much like Kansas State, Baylor survived on the skin of their QB’s teeth and won four close games in 2012, suggesting a major relapse. The Bears still have the upside to win 8 games, if QB Nick Florence is up to the task of replacing Griffin. The most intriguing player on the roster is new RB Lache Seastrunk, a former top recruit who left Oregon.

8. Texas Tech was mostly pitiful and occasionally mediocre in 2012, but they scored one of the biggest upsets of 2011 when they beat 28-point favorite Oklahoma in Norman. Despite that trophy on their mantle from 2011, the Red Raiders missed a bowl. This year’s team looks much stronger with 17 returning starters despite their 0-5 finish to the season last year. This year’s schedule opens with 3 likely wins and if the Raiders can pull off the occasional upset, the odds are good that the Raiders will return to a bowl in 2012. That’s about all they can reasonably hope for.

Probably won't be too many
Gatorade baths for Rhoads this year

9. Just like Texas Tech, the Cyclones were usually mediocre, mostly playing the Charlie Brown to the Big XII’s Lucy, but they too scored a huge victory in 2011. Though the long-term ramifications of that win may not be truly realized for a couple years, the Cyclones are a program on the rise. It’s difficult to see them competing for the Big XII crown very often, considering their competition, but the work head coach Paul Rhoads has done here has been very impressive. This year, Iowa State has a chance at a bowl game with 7 returning starters on offense (though they did lose OC Tom Herman to Ohio State), but the schedule is not kind. Non-conference games against Tulsa and Iowa will be tough and the usual Big XII schedule features trips to Oklahoma State, TCU, and Texas along with home games against West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Kansas State. It’s hard to see Iowa State reaching a bowl in 2012.

10. The next few years of Jayhawks football will likely decide if they go the way of Indiana, Duke, and Kentucky or go in the direction of UCLA or North Carolina. For the 2nd time in the last four years, Kansas has a new coach. This time, the chance went to Charlie Weis, who was last seen ruining Florida’s offense. Though he doesn’t have the expectations he had while at Notre Dame in his prior head coaching job, he also won’t have the resources he did to win games. The Jayhawks were fortunate in that they were able to bring in QBs Dayne Crist and Jake Heaps as transfers. Kansas will likely be better on QB, but not much anywhere else.

All Big XII Team

Malcolm Brown

QB Geno Smith, West Virginia

RB Malcolm Brown, Texas

RB Dominique Whaley, Oklahoma

WR Kenny Stills, Oklahoma
WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
WR Josh Boyce, TCU

TE Travis Tannahill, Kansas State

OT Lane Taylor, Oklahoma

OG Blaize Foltz, TCU
C Joe Madsen, West Virginia

OG Josh Jenkins, West Virginia
OT  LaAdrian Waddle, Texas Tech

Brodrick Brown

DE Alex Okafor, Texas

DT Jamarkus McFarland, Oklahoma

DE Stansly Maponga, TCU
DE Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas

LB A.J. Klein, Iowa State
LB Arthur Brown, Kansas State
LB Jake Knott, Iowa State
DB Brodrick Brown, Oklahoma State
DB Carrington Byndom, Texas
DB Kenny Vacarro, Texas
DB Ahmad Dixon, Baylor

K Quinn Sharp, Oklahoma State

P Tress Way, Oklahoma

KR Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State

Ten Players to Watch

Klein

QB Collin Klein, Kansas State

DB Nigel Malone, Kansas State

RB Jonathan Gray, Texas

WR Stedman Bailey, West Virginia

QB Landry Jones, Oklahoma

QB Blake Bell, Oklahoma

RB Lache Seastrunk, Baylor

QB Seth Doege, Texas Tech

DB Quandre Diggs, Texas

LB/DB Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma

2012 Pac-12 Preview

North: 

1. Oregon (11-1) 

2. Stanford (10-2) 

3. California (7-5) 

4. Washington (7-5)

5. Washington State (5-7) 

6. Oregon State (4-8)

South:

1. USC (12-0) 

2. Utah (10-2) 

3. UCLA (6-6) 

4. Arizona (4-8)

5. Arizona State (3-9)

6. Colorado (2-10) 

North

Mariota

1. Taking a look at Oregon’s roster, it’s no far stretch to claim this is the best Oregon team since Joey Harrington prowled the sidelines for the Ducks almost a decade ago. Despite youth at QB and road trips to USC, Cal and rival Oregon State, this Ducks team is a virtual lock for double-digit wins and a return trip to the Pac-12 Championship. It’s a testament to how great a job coach Chip Kelly has done in Eugene that the Ducks could lose 11 starters, including a two-year starter at QB and their top rusher of the past three years yet still maintain a spot near the top of the AP Poll. The Ducks are reaching 90’s Florida State levels of poll dominance and popularity. (For those wondering what I’m talking about, Florida State was a stone cold lock to start and finish the year in the Top 5 for nearly all of the 1990’s. Oregon is getting awfully close.) Naturally, the QB position will be the most closely scrutinized it has been since Darron Thomas stole the job from Nate Costa a couple of years ago. This time, it’s redshirt frosh Marcus Mariota stealing the job from expected starter Bryan Bennett thanks to a fine spring. Mariota evoked memories of Dennis Dixon and his speed will be a dimension that Oregon has not had at QB since the days of Dixon. I expect the Ducks to enjoy more rushing productivity from their QB position, with less passing efficiency until Mariota settles into the job by mid-season. At RB there will be no drop-off as Kenjon Barner returns along with speed demon (and Dark Horse) Heisman candidate De’Anthony Thomas, who was last seen stealing the show in the Rose Bowl. Defensively, this is defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti’s best unit (during his time under Kelly). It was inexperienced in the secondary last year, but most of the underclassmen they had to play were forced to grow up fast, a huge boon to 2012 Oregon’s defense. The front seven is stout and will generate plenty of pressure.

Naturally, all eyes will be on Los Angeles on November 3rd, when the Ducks travel to USC for part two of a day that will most likely feature two matchups between every team ranked in the top 4 at the time (LSU hosts Alabama).

Skov

2. Most people expect a regression from Stanford, and that’s fair. Anytime you lose leadership the caliber of Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck in consecutive years, a noticeable drop-off is to be expected. With that being said, the 2012 Cardinal won’t be too far behind where the last two years’ versions were. They bring back 13 starters, including 7 on a defense that was the Pac-12’s best all-around unit. In keeping with the style Harbaugh and current coach David Shaw prefer, they’ll be stingy on the lines and the front-7 is one of the best in the country. Bringing back Shayne Skov, Chase Thomas, and Trent Murphy to supplement their strong defensive line will keep Stanford competitive. Skov and Thomas figure to be among the Pac-12’s best chances to win the Butkus award and might be the best 1-2-3 punch at LB since USC had Rey Maualuga, Brian Matthews, and Clay Matthews in 2008. The main issue everyone wants to debate concerning Stanford lies at QB, where Brett Nottingham and Josh Nunes battled during the spring, offseason and fall camp. Regardless of whoever wins the job, it’s obvious they won’t be as good as Luck was. That’s where Stanford’s strong offensive line and talented stable of running backs (including freshman Barry Sanders, Jr.) will be key. Their expected level of performance will be essential to keeping Nunes upright and confident as defenses won’t be allowed to pin their ears back and attack him all game. As is the case with rookie QBs in the NFL, it helps to give first-year starters at QB some safety blankets. That’s where TEs Levine Toilolo and Zach Ertz come in. The Cardinal’s schedule is one of the more challenging ones in the Pac-12. They have road games versus Oregon, UCLA, California, and Washington, and they drew USC out of the south as well. Toss in a mid-season cross-country trip to Notre Dame and you have a schedule that will force Nunes to grow up, quickly. Stanford should be favored in all of those games, except the USC and Oregon games and has an excellent shot at double digit wins for a 3rd straight season so long as Nunes is efficient. He doesn’t have to be Andrew Luck.

There better be some answers
on that sheet, Jeff

3. Cal has had problems with consistency since the end of mid-2000’s, when they were a pain in USC’s side and a legitimate threat to win 9+ games a year under Jeff Tedford (thanks in no small part to efforts made by Aaron Rodgers and Marshawn Lynch). The last five years have not been kind to the Golden Bears. Part of the problem has obviously stemmed from the rise of Oregon and Stanford, but the majority has come from Tedford’s inability to find QBs to run his offense. The Bears have produced legitimate pro prospects at nearly every other position during that time frame, but they have been well-below average at QB. This year, Tedford has his QB back, but only 10 other starters are returning from a team that went 7-6 in 2011. The unknown dynamic surrounding Cal in 2012 is how their return to Memorial Stadium will go. Last year they played essentially 12 road games, as they had to travel even for home games. The Bears drew a long straw when it comes to schedule, as they got 5 Pac-12 home games, including the Pac-12 North’s top 3 teams in Oregon, Stanford, and Washington. They do have three brutal road games on their schedule in 2012- visits to Ohio State, USC, and Utah will push the young Bears. If QB Zach Maynard can build off his encouraging finish to the season in 2011 and find ways to get the ball to stud WR Keenan Allen and RB Isi Sofele continues Cal’s tradition of 1,000 yard backs, the Bears might surprise. The Bears are a lock to reach a bowl again in 2012 and have an outside chance at representing the Pac-12 North as long as they can beat their interdivisional opponents at home.

4. The last time we saw Washington, they were getting blistered by Baylor and Robert Griffin in the Alamodome. Even so, don’t let that image, however ugly, color your view of the 2012 Huskies. This program has steadily grown and improved under Steve Sarkisian. Despite several key losses, including top rusher Chris Polk, this might be the best Washington team since Cody Pickett played here. Despite that, Washington may be a case of a team that shows improvement everywhere except on the field. They have five difficult conference road games and face a road trip to LSU in week 2. Given the massive improvement the Pac-12 has undergone, the Huskies might struggle to reach bowl eligibility, but I still foresee them reaching the 7-win mark for the 3rd straight year under Sarkisian, ultimately setting the table for 2013.

5. Washington State has been one of the buzziest teams of the offseason, and it’s pretty simple to figure out why. They hired in one of the few coaches in college football that can win in any situation, Mike Leach. Despite the ugly way his Texas Tech career ended, the Pirate has a fantastic track record, winning over 80 games during his tenure in Lubbock. Washington State is the Pac-12’s version of Texas Tech. It will take time for the Cougars to reach the level his best Red Raider teams were at, but this program finally has an element of positive momentum they haven’t had since they finished #9 in the final poll of 2003. Until Leach can bring in the kinds of players he needs for his Air Raid scheme, expect lots of yards, points and sacks for the Cougars’ offense.  This is a program on the rise, but they will need to show patience with Leach.

6. Oregon State was once a perennial threat to be the team that no one saw coming every single season, but the last couple of years haven’t been kind to Beavers, as they have struggled across the board, winning just 8 games in the previous two seasons. There is some upside here, as QB Sean Mannion appears to have the skill set to run coach Mike Riley’s scheme and they do bring back 15 returning starters. For some, this is a potential bowl team, but I only see the Beavers topping out at 4-5 wins, tops. If they want a bowl game in 2012, they’ll need to upset a major Pac-12 rival, a tough task.

South

1. The most overused phrase of the 2012 offseason that doesn’t concern playoffs has to be “USC is back.” Whether or not that’s actually true (and it appears to be that way), the immediate future in Los Angeles looks as sunny as ever. USC is loaded this year. They aren’t deep, but their starting 22 (15 returning starters) is as good as any. The important key for USC, as has been beaten into the ground by every other prognosticator is health. USC absolutely cannot afford any more injuries, especially on defense. Post-spring projected starting DE Devon Kennard is already gone for the year and defensive line is not USC’s strongest unit, a red flag to me. When it comes to national championship-worthy teams, I like to start in the trenches and under center. Luckily for Lane Kiffin, the Trojans are as well-accommodated as any at the QB position. Heisman Trophy favorite Matt Barkley returned with his eyes set on Miami (the site of the 2013 NCG) and he has plenty of friends to help him out, including All-America candidates Robert Woods and Marqise Lee at WR and Khaled Holmes at C. The men of Troy also gained a nice boost to their rushing attack when Silas Redd left Penn State for L.A. USC’s schedule is nice and pliable, with the exception of three key games. The September 15 game at Stanford will test the Trojans’ front 7 depth and physicality. The October 4, Thursday night road game to Utah is easily the most dangerous game on the schedule for USC. It’s in primetime, in altitude, and against a Utah team that gave USC a tough game in 2011 and will be coming off a bye week. The final game that should scare USC is their duel with the Ducks, a rivalry that has grown in recent years to be one of the nation’s best and must-watch for TV for those who love offense. With all their talent, USC has a great chance at running the table, but they will need to beat Oregon twice to reach another BCS Championship game.

2. My favorite unheralded team of this upcoming season is the Utah Utes. Not only does Kyle Whittingham’s team bring back 16 starters, including likely All-American DT Star Lotulelei, but they also drew a great schedule that avoids both of the Pac-12 North’s major teams. That coupled, with a home game versus USC, gives Utah a great chance at double digit wins and an outside chance at the BCS, possibly giving the Pac-12 a legitimate case for sending three teams. The lynchpin of the season will of course be at quarterback, where Jordan Wynn returns. It remains to be seen with him if he has gotten over a shoulder injury that hampered him last year. If he is better, and I expect he will be, the rest of the offense will flow smoothly. John White is easily one of the best BCS conference players you’ve never heard of and his presence will make this a solid offense.

3. One of the teams I have had a historically difficult time predicting has been UCLA, especially recently. Former coach Rick Neuheisel recruited well during his time there, but ultimately the Bruins struggled to stay competitive with USC and Oregon in the Pac-10/12. Some of the blame will rightfully be attributed to QB injuries, but the majority of it will be placed  on Neuheisel for not instilling the proper discipline and attention to detail in his players. UCLA decided to go completely opposite of Neuheisel, bringing in Jim Mora. Mora has stressed discipline and brought an NFL-style practice philosophy to Westwood in an effort to rectify these issues. In the short time after he started, he recruited hard and was able to secure a solid class to supplement the bevy of returning starters the Bruins have back, including 9 on defense. UCLA gets five Pac-12 home games and avoids Oregon, giving them a great chance at another bowl game. If you buy recruiting rankings, UCLA has the talent to do a lot better than the 6 or 7 wins they’re projected for, but it will be up to Mora and new OC Noel Mazzone to develop and solidify UCLA’s QB position.

4. As one of the four Pac-12 teams with a new coach, the future in Arizona is full of optimism. Rich Rodriguez was brought in a year after his brutal time at Michigan came to an abrupt end. The interesting thing about Rich Rodriguez in the Pac-12 is the inherent “newness” he will bring. No teams other than Oregon run the spread option all that commonly and no one runs his 3-3-5 stack defense. I’m a believer in being counter-cultural (as it applies to college football) and challenging a conference used to high-flying passing attacks by running the ball and using the option makes Arizona a team to watch in the next couple of years to see if they can bridge the gap between them and USC in the South Division. The Wildcats bring back only 12 starters and drew both Oregon and Stanford as road games, along with Utah on the road, meaning this will likely be a rebuilding year. Changing to Rodriguez’s offense does not happen overnight but I do expect Arizona fans and the administration to be patient with him.

5. New Sun Devils coach Todd Graham recently referred to the mind-set of the program under Dennis Erickson as “free spirited.” It’s clear that he has work to do in Tempe. Arizona State only brings back 8 starters and must replace a 2-year starter at QB in Brock Osweiler. Luckily for Graham, he does get one of the Pac-12’s best RBs in Cameron Marshall back. Even so, ASU has only 8 returning starters overall and the program has struggled recently, meaning it will be up to Graham to restore momentum to a program that lost it over the last four seasons. He will also face increased scrutiny after the manner in which he departed Pittsburgh.

6. Colorado has certainly fallen a long way from the level they were at in the early 2000’s, when UC was a regular threat to reach the Big XII title game. Nowadays, Buffaloes fans just want to see bowl eligibility. Sadly, it appears that 2012 won’t be any kinder to the Buffaloes than any of the last few years (no winning seasons since 2005). Bringing back one of the Pac-12’s most inexperienced teams (9 returning starters, only 8 seniors on roster), coach Jon Embree has one of the toughest jobs in college football ahead of him as he works to bring Colorado back to relevance. Colorado has an easy non-conference schedule and 5 Pac-12 home games, but drew each of the Pac-12’s five best teams.

All Pac-12 Team

Barner

QB Matt Barkley, USC
RB Stepfan Taylor, Stanford

RB Kenjon Barner, Oregon
WR Robert Woods, USC
WR Keenan Davis, Cal
WR Marquess Wilson, Washington State

TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Washington

OT Matt Summers-Gavin, Cal

OT Kevin Graf, USC

OG Carson York, Oregon

OG Erik Kohler, Washington
C Khaled Holmes, USC

Lotulelei

DE Josh Shirley, Washington

DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
DT Aaron Tipoti, Cal

DE Dion Jordan, Oregon

LB Dion Bailey, USC
LB Shayne Skov, Stanford
LB Chase Thomas, Stanford
DB Nickell Robey, USC
DB Desmond Trufant, Washington
DB John Boyett, Oregon
DB TJ McDonald, USC

K Andre Heidari, USC

P Jeff Locke, UCLA

KR De’Anthony Thomas, Oregon

Ten Players Not on This List You Should Watch Anyway

Price

QB Keith Price, Washington

RB Cameron Marshall, Arizona State

RB John White, Utah

DE Wes Horton, USC

RB Isi Sofele, Cal

WR Marqise Lee, USC

RB Jonathan Franklin, UCLA

C Sam Schwartzstein, Stanford

DE Ben Gardner, Stanford

QB Sean Mannion, Oregon State